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Friday, September 17, 2021

Lizard Gorge


I was hiking through one of my favorite wilderness areas the other day. I call this place Lizard Gorge because it's full of monitor lizards that strut around like they own it.

Just a few minutes into my hike I noticed some birds going crazy atop a massive, hollow tree. They were calling loudly as if a predator was near, and, sure enough, when I peered into this tree I saw two monitors tearing apart the carcass of a large animal.

It was a gory but fascinating sight. Unfortunately, the stench made it difficult to bear, so I decided to move on.

As I backed away I was attacked by a swarm of insects. Initially, in my panic, I thought they were spiders, but on closer inspection they turned out to be gigantic ants.

I was bitten on the hand, arm and neck. It hurt like hell. The bite on the neck was especially painful. Were these ants venomous? Was I at risk of a dangerous allergic reaction? I didn't know, so I ran, seemingly for my life.

After a few minutes, however, the pain went away. I sat down beside a creek, looked all around for ants, and had a cool drink (from my hydration pack, not the creek). Despite my ordeal, it was an awesome hike, and I managed to get some great pics. Enjoy!

See also...

Eagle country

246 comments:

1 – 200 of 246   Newer›   Newest»
Davidski said...

Let's make this another open thread.

Is everyone vaccinated? I am, and it feels good to be part of the biggest vaccine rollout in human history.

However, disappointingly, my face isn't magnetized and my body doesn't pick up a free 5G signal.

Dave the Slothtopus said...

Everyone in my immediate family (wife, kids, parents, wife's parents) got vaccinated as soon as each of us became eligible.
Love the hike/lizard pics. We don't get lizards that big, here. The local roadrunners would have to size up to velociraptor height to keep up with monitors.

Matt said...

Australian wilderness is no joke...

New Japanese ancient genomes might be worth a look - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abh2419 - "Ancient genomics reveals tripartite origins of Japanese populations", accession is PRJEB43762 at the ENA, but not uploaded yet.

MH_82 said...

I am X2; although I’ve always been a tad skeptical
A couple of pre-Bed whiskeys kept the chills and aches away

Davidski said...

I've read that very moderate alcohol consumption might actually increase the effectiveness of the vaccine, because it reduces inflammation.

On the other hand, heavy drinking, especially within two weeks after each dose is a bad idea for a couple of reasons, including that it might hamper the production of antibodies.

Simon_W said...

Yes, I am vaccinated out of conviction. I'm from Basel, we have a long humanist tradition and a big pharmazeutical industry. However, it's a shame how many other Swiss people are against the covid vaccines. Only about 50% of the adults here are vaccinated, which makes us the tail lamp of western Europe! There's the widespread belief in a conspiracy aiming at a reduction of the world's populace by lethal injection. And many young females are very insecure because of some rumors that the vaccine will make them infertile forever, which is based on fake news. And just yesterday I read an article about a Swiss medical doctor who opposes the vaccination because he believes it could pose an unhealthy selective pressure onto the corona virus, possibly leading to a mutation that can use the antibodies caused by mRNA vaccines for its own benefit. Of course that's highly unlikely. Much more likely is a mutant virus that is merely immune against the antibodies. And the more we let the virus replicate and thus mutate, the more likely it becomes. The best way to avoid this: getting more people vaccinated.

Simon_W said...

Oh I forgot; last week I obtained a flyer from a Christian sect that warned against the corona vaccination. They asserted that it would elongate our lives, but at a terrible price, because it's from the anti-Christ, and with the vaccine a micro-chip is implanted with the message that the anti-Christ is the lord of the world. So when the Jesus will return to Jerusalem, every vaccinated person will be thrown into a lake of fire, lol.

LGK said...

Some of the large bull/bulldog (Myrmecia) ants have actually killed people in the past. They're a primitive clade, about as close to wasps as it gets.

Davidski said...

Yeah, it felt like more than a bite, and that something was being injected into me, because the pain was like a burn.

Luckily, no allergic reaction even after three bites.

I remember I was kind of shocked at the time at how big these ants were.

Davidski said...

I managed to get this pic inside the tree. The smell was ridiculous.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uZGcMQyN6hc/YUVFLzAOnWI/AAAAAAAAKWQ/IpsehUH7NJosrgPIcsgETi2-rMoW7Cf9gCLcBGAsYHQ/s1500/Lizard_Gorge_06.jpg

Desdichado said...

Check out the VAERS data on Covid vaccinations. Interesting stuff there.

Davidski said...

OK...

Reports stemming from a false news video that the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event System (VAERS) reporting system recorded a sharp increase in deaths due to COVID-19 vaccinations in July 2021 are untrue. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) representatives confirmed that a review of death certificates, autopsy, and medical records, does not establish a causal link to all COVID-19 vaccines but acknowledged some deaths have occurred in connection with the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19-vaers-idUSL1N2PB2H3

pnuadha said...

"There's the widespread belief in a conspiracy aiming at a reduction of the world's populace by lethal injection. And many young females are very insecure because of some rumors that the vaccine will make them infertile forever, which is based on fake news"

Its good to have a healthy mistrust of the authorities. There is no doubt that we have been consistently lied to by the authorities from the very beginning. Initially the CDC downplayed the disease, called travel restrictions racist, and even tried to redefine the term pandemic so that Covid would not meet the definition. Masks (non n95) dont do anything turned into masks (non n95) are necessary for everyone which was a blatant lie designed to manipulate peoples behavior.

It is time consuming to separate out the political recommendations from the recommendations that come from legitimate science. Gyms being closed by obese vitamin d deficient public health "experts" is beyond insulting. You also must keep in mind that what is broadly good for the population may not be optimal for you as an individual.

Some of the things that seems to be true are that the vaccine is fairly effective for 6 months to a year. The likelihood of getting an immediate severe reaction from the vaccine is around 1%. The vaccine has little to no additive immunity if you had covid. Long term effects of the vaccine are unknown. Covid death rates for healthy individuals are not concerning. The effects of covid seem to linger as well and may have some alarming implications about brain health. (but keep in mind that the vaccine may not do much to prevent covid over your lifetime) Im not seeing any orders of magnitude of differences when it comes to taking the vaccine or not.

pnuadha said...

"Australian wilderness is no joke..."

Exactly what I thought. The ants make you run in terror. What an odd island.

The japanese paper reveals some new things and actually presents a rather clear model, which is unusual for a paper on japan.

What do you think of the jomon and yana connection? Is it ANE/West Eurasian like ancestry in Jomon or Jomon/East Asian like ancestry in Yana? Also, I dont understand how they can propose that the rice farming Yaiyo were from shangdong when yaiyo are not of the yellow river stock.

Davidski said...

@pnuadha

The likelihood of getting an immediate severe reaction from the vaccine is around 1%.

Not even close. That's the Covid/Delta death rate.

Im not seeing any orders of magnitude of differences when it comes to taking the vaccine or not.

I certainly am.

First of all, a lot of otherwise totally healthy people are dying from Covid, and especially from Delta, and basically all of these people aren't vaccinated. And considering that the technology behind the Covid vaccines is actually very well known, then almost 100% of these deaths are preventable at very little risk.

Secondly, health risks that put people at risk of severe Covid are actually very common in many countries, like high blood pressure and/or diabetics. So it makes no sense to claim that only the "unhealthy" are really at risk, considering that a large proportion of people fit into this category, which means society is impacted.

Thirdly, many of the idiots who refuse to be vaccinated and getting Covid are taking up places in hospitals that should be available for other people. And it's not only about the beds, but also about the limited numbers of doctors and nurses that exist.

Finally, it's extremely likely that I'll end up getting Covid soon, but I won't mind now because I'm vaccinated. This means that I'll end up getting long term immunity, and at a much lower risk of dying as a result.

Davidski said...

Good stuff here...

COVID-19 vaccines ⁠–⁠ Is it true?

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/is-it-true?gclid=Cj0KCQjwnJaKBhDgARIsAHmvz6dl6OiZiT4Kw2TaX2a5kMysfUtpiqA2UZ-hQoWgJq5CVHI7yygl4_IaAmCOEALw_wcB

MH_82 said...

''What do you think of the jomon and yana connection? Is it ANE/West Eurasian like ancestry in Jomon or Jomon/East Asian like ancestry in Yana? Also, I dont understand how they can propose that the rice farming Yaiyo were from shangdong when yaiyo are not of the yellow river stock.''

Its the preference for F-/D-stats for affinities with less complex populations (ie older, less complex ancestry)
Of course, there's also the Japanese (& south Korean) dogma which claims they are in fact related to 'trans-Eurasians' rather than from Chinese Rice Farmers. Looking at the Y-DNA of Jomon & Yayoi, this obviously fails a sanity check

MH_82 said...

The erosion of personal choice is becoming disconcerting
People are being fired from jobs if they do not comply with vaccination
Even if Covid was more lethal than it is; and the vaccines more effective than they evidently are; that’s going down a slippery slope

Davidski said...

It's great to have personal choice, but things are a lote more complicated in this case.

Either the vast majority of us work togehther to stop Covid's spread, or we're all in trouble.

And I'm totally at a loss as to why the right wing, especially in America, is trying to kill and maim its electorate by going antivax. Seems counter productive.

Just take the damn vaccine.

vAsiSTha said...

I'm with Rob.

Vaccination has not proven to be capable of stopping spread. Although it is proven to be good at hospitalization reduction and preventing death.

We have dismal vaccination rates in India still the official count in my state now is 20 cases a day only. The pandemic where I am is as good as over. Everything is back to normal.

On the contrary, Israel was heavily vaccinated still cases are skyrocketing.

vAsiSTha said...

Mandating vaccines or losing jobs is just plain tyrannical. Those with comorbidities should definitely take the vaccine, for the rest it should be up to choice.

Davidski said...

I must be missing the point of your argument, considering that:

- I remember the recent horror scenes in India with people begging for oxygen (and don't recall anything like that in Israel)

- a lot of people died in India from Covid

- Delta came from India

- the reason Delta finally slowed down its death march in India was partly because of vaccination

vAsiSTha said...

No. The vaccination at the point when the delta wave subsided end of May was hardly 20% fully vaccinated.

Considering the population of India and the lack of hospital beds compared to population, the delta wave caused quote less damage.

vAsiSTha said...

Herd immunity, with or without vaccine, is the likely reason the pandemic is over for now in my state. Unvaccinated people without prior COVID infection were also found to have antibodies at the rate of 75%. The virus just had to run its course.

Over 80 per cent Ahmedabad population has COVID-19 antibodies: Survey

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/jul/20/over-80-per-cent-ahmedabad-population-has-covid-19-antibodies-survey-2332752.html

sds said...

I and everybody in my home is vaccinated. I do wish there would be more emphasis on those who have natural immunization due to being exposed to COVID. From what I have read, natural immunization is more effective, and from what we know through genetics, this makes sense.

epoch said...

Israel is not so massively vaccinated. It was vaccinated early, at a great speed.

vAsiSTha said...

20% of Indian adults is fully vaccinated with 62% with 1 dose as of today. In April or May it was much much lower.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02187-1

This article explains that vaccinated people also spread delta, as is clear from data in many countries. So why are only unvaccinated being blamed and targeted with penalties?

Countries should look for a solution which includes both vaccinations as well as natural immunity, and focus on protecting the most vulnerable only with vaccines.

This is also what the great Barrington declaration by top medical professional suggests

https://gbdeclaration.org/

Davidski said...

Yeah, India's an awesome case study of how to deal with Covid-19.

pnuadha said...

@davidski

Not even close. That's the Covid/Delta death rate.

No, that number came directly from a 44k, placebo controlled, observer blind, study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.full.pdf). They found that severe adverse events were 1.2% in the vaccine group and 0.7% in the placebo group. Attributing 1% of severe reactions to the vaccine may be wrong, but at a bare minimum .5% should be attributed to the vaccine. Adverse events (30% vs 14%) and related adverse events (24% vs 6%) were observed meaning that the .5% of severe reaction grows depending on your definition.

Over the six month period 0.37% of the vaccinated got Covid and 4% of the unvaxinated got covid.

And considering that the technology behind the Covid vaccines is actually very well known, then almost 100% of these deaths are preventable at very little risk.

The overall death rates for the vaccine and placebo group were the same over a six month period, 15 vs 16. (I dont know how much data from the delta variant was included)

Finally, it's extremely likely that I'll end up getting Covid soon, but I won't mind now because I'm vaccinated"

Exactly. This is what I meant when i said the protections are not orders of magnitute different. The long term chances of getting covid arent that different and given the superiority of natural immunity you only get it once. So what exactly is the risk you are averting? A serious covid health complication? What is the absolute reduction in this risk. Im guessing it is very small for a healthy person like me or you. Also, with such a piss poor vaccine dont you expect the virus to adapt and the efficacy to go way down?

Here is summary of some potential concerns surrounding the vaccine, and yes, it appears to be science based

https://archive.is/HZz2c

vAsiSTha said...

@davidski.

The question is not whether India did well.

The question is whether vaccines helped to curb the spread. Look at the steep drop in daily cases since May. Ask yourself how it happened and what helped. Vaccines arent the answer to that question.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/india-covid-cases.html

Look at the chart.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=ind&areas=isr&areas=swe&areas=deu&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usla&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=usms&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustn&cumulative=0&logScale=1&per100K=1&startDate=2020-04-01&values=cases

Then compare

Palacista said...

@Davidski

The right need to have people scared of something, it doesn't matter if they lose a few percent along the way.

Ric Hern said...

@ Davidski nice photos.

Here in my valley the majority of the population did not give a sh.. about the rules. After being in contact with some infected people and indirectly with others and not contracting anything I decided that my number could be up next or I have immunity, but just to stay on the safe side I took my family and got the jab. Had some pain in my knees for a day but after that no other symptoms.

Foxvillager said...

Same here.Did the Pfizer like the rest of my familly....i hope i will be okay in the near future.But Greece is vaccinated only 55% of the population witch is a very bad number for a country of 10m people.Unfortunately here,there are many orthodoxtaliban hardcore christians that will never do it.Many far right-wing religious protests all over the country.Anyway, there are rumours here for a 3rd dose at christmas or after the new year.

Andrzejewski said...

Here CDC declined to offer booster shots to anyone younger than 65. Sheer stupidity if you ask me!

Ric Hern said...

Got the Johnson's...

Genos Historia said...

Davidski, it would be nice if pro-Covid crowd was as reasonable as you but they aren't. Lol, no but seriously.

The creepy censorship on social media does no help in making the anti-covid crowd support any effort to slow the spread. Unreasonable people do that type of censorship.

The efforts to stop the spread also display irrational paranoia. Kids should not be forced to wear masks in school. School should never have been put online. At the very least do not put masks on preschoolers.

If Western societies were more healthy, we'd be able to converse with each other and work with each other. But the state we are in, this isn't going to work.

Genos Historia said...

Man, very cool pictures of Montiel lizards. Especially the one with his prey. You guys have beautiful nature in Australia.

There's parks in Florida where you can walk alongside dozens of alligators for free. But they just sit in the sun all day.


Matt said...

Fully vaccinated myself of course. Mostly to stop the spread through society and to older contacts, but some concern for my own personal risk. Hopefully spaced the does enough to get the longest protection out of it going into the winter when it will likely become more serious again from a mix of waning protection and winter climate.

vAsiSTha: Those with comorbidities should definitely take the vaccine, for the rest it should be up to choice.

At the very least we'd have to agree that mandatory vaccination should be a pre-requisite of working in care roles that are protecting the elderly? Even if it only has a small spread on passing on, it is important to do everything to stop care home outbreaks.

RE; "focused protection", it does seems crazy to me though how the public response on vaccine mandates seems being shaped by the tools politicians have available, rather actually by reducing on risk. People are talking about mandatory vaccination for kids, because they have that tool, and in the US there's sort of this (legally open to challenge, questionably enforceable) mandate of forcing effectively mandatory vaccination for working age population, because they have that tool though workplace safety. Even though these are both relatively low risk populations who might gain a broader or superior immunity from exposure. Or you have similar things like the proposed vaccine mandates to go clubbing in the UK, which have a similar lack of impact on at-risk populations.

The US working age defacto vaccine mandate for large firms might decrease spread a bit (though vaccines are possibly relatively ineffective at that) and so decrease deaths.... if it doesn't just split society into a vaccinated and unvaccinated proportion further, which is entirely plausible and in which case it could drive further spread (because it reduces your effective herd immunity; you obviously in general want any unimmune you have socializing with immune people, if you want to reduce the chances of spread).

But I'd estimate it would probably be less effective for reducing deaths than the US just closing up to 100% on its vaccination in over 60s, simply because of the very sharp shape of age related risk. It's the almost universal level of >60 vaccination that really cuts the deaths in many countries, and the US faces the bigger problem in that more of its vaccine hesistant people are older people who have refused for political reasons, rather than young who just misjudge that they're at higher risk from vaccines. But US politicians don't have an effective tool to make that happen (because they can't force it the way they can on kids attending school, or adults trying to work).

The age-death curves are very obvious on this - https://www.pnas.org/content/118/11/e2026322118 - "In terms of maximizing person-years of remaining life, vaccinating a 90-year-old in the United States would be expected to save twice as many person-years as vaccinating a 75-year-old, and 6 times as many as vaccinating a 50-year-old.", and this is measuring years of life, so heavily weighted to protecting the young, while in terms of absolute death reduction, you'd be even more favourable to older vaccination. So getting those residual refusants over 60 is way more important than trying to get 30-40 year olds vaccinated, let alone children. But again, it seems really no legal tools for the US gov to do so, because they can't do it by restricting access to workplaces, and public facilities.

MOCKBA said...

Nobody with three shots? Added a dose of Moderna on top of 2xPfizer, taking advantage of lack of coordination between states in the US. Not that I am afraid of severe disease in my under 60 age group,but we have a much older cancer patient in the family. And I don't want to disrupt lots of planned travel if some test comes positive.
My immunity question is about South America where Delta invaded very slowly, and didn't cause an uptick of cases. So it looks like have preexisting Delta immunity. But their vaccines, typically Sinovac, poorly protect against Delta. Is it the natural immunity from Gamma which saves them???

Desdichado said...

On this blog especially, compared to most places, because it's such a common refrain here, it should be obvious that science isn't what the media says. It isn't even what the SCIENTISTS say. How many times have we taken Anthony or the Reich lab to task for refusing to draw conclusions that their data make obvious? Science is what the DATA says.

Don't look for a Reuters article on VAERS. Actually query the data. It's public.

https://www.medalerts.org/vaersdb/findfield.php?TABLE=ON&GROUP1=CAT&EVENTS=ON&VAX=COVID19

vAsiSTha said...

@matt

Agreed about the elderly and those with comorbidities and obesity. The benefits of vaccine for those are immense. I know a 22 yr old obese guy who died of COVID.

For healthcare workers, if they're already recovered from COVID I don't see any reason why they need a vaccine if they're already seropositive. Natural immunity provides as good an immunity if not better.

Mandating vaccines for healthy kids is just retarded.

Also, vaccine immunity goes away after 6-12 months so be ready for endless boosters. I would assume that natural immunity recedes as well but don't have the data.

Davidski said...

@Desdichado

My point was that VAERS data isn't hard data. So you can't draw any solid conclusions from it.

Davidski said...

LOL

Anyone can submit a report to VAERS — healthcare professionals, vaccine manufacturers, and the general public. VAERS welcomes all reports, regardless of seriousness, and regardless of how likely the vaccine may have been to have caused the adverse event.

vAsiSTha said...

So which database or study is to be used to gauge the extent of direct vaccine sideeffects? or are there none?

NeilB said...

The problem you have is lack of accurate reporting of cases. Indian politicians seem to think ignoring the problem is a solution. Delta came from India. As will the next variant and the next, if your leaders don't get a grip.. The pandemic is nearly over in your area? Piffle! NeilB

Davidski said...

I think the inadvertently positive thing about Covid is that it'll basically destroy the anti-vaxxer movement. I say positive, because there's always a chance of another pandemic, and something much worse than Covid.

Pay attention over the next few months at what happens to the anti-vaxxer thing as Delta is allowed to rip through western society with no lock downs.

MH_82 said...

More needs to be done for early treatment and pre-optimisation : antioxidants, vitamin C, D , zinc

Davidski said...

Antioxidants and vitamins won't help anyone predisposed of dying from Covid.

They just need to be vaccinated.

MH_82 said...

They do in early phase of infection & might prevent severity of infection of taken before exposure
Once they’re in ICU; then it’s too probably late

John Thomas said...

Nice wild animal shots.

MAD said...

Another less discussed aspect is the lasting damage the virus can do to organs, even in mild cases. This not only affects quality of life, it also increases susceptibility to other conditions (think diabetes, hearing loss, blood clots, pacemakers etc.)

If the goal is to live through the waves of the virus until it has mutated to stabilize as a lesser virus, vaccinate, mask, social distance, ventilate, to get the Rt below 1.

When_in_Rome said...

https://osf.io/yv8kc/
"Possible Correlation between COVID-19 Contagion and Y-DNA Haplogroup R1b"

Could be interesting research.

El Lurker said...

I'm vaccinated
astrazeneca x2, first one hit me like a truck

My mother has one shot of Sputnik and one shot of Astrazeneca.
Sputnik uses 2 different adenoviruses for their 2 shots, and they have been having problems manufacturing the second one. So our local government after some testing decided to give astrazeneca or moderna as the second shot for people that had received the first shot of sputnik.

I'm a conservative and it bothers me to see so many right wingers refusing vaccination. I think it's a psychological phenomenon.
Some people don't like being told what to do, especially when it comes from the government or from people they dislike. Some people think getting vaccinated is admitting weakness (that you could be in the "weak" minority group killed by the virus and not among the majority that survives it), which would make them less alpha male, and some people in a cynical way think they don't need to get vaccinated if everybody else does, that they can be smarter than the rest that way.
The ones who believe the vaccines are really harmful are a tiny minority. Peer pressure is also a factor.

Andrzejewski said...

@El Lurker I agree with you 100%. I’m a Constitutionalist, and it bothers me that people never question how having metal detectors, X-rays and taking off liquids, shoes etc or how it affects their freedoms but they have a problem with vaccines.

Ric Hern said...

@ El Lurker

What happened to the "My body, my choice" some were so eagerly propagating a while back ? Does it only count for certain people ? Maybe if the idea was presented less forcefully then people would have been more keen. But some people couldn't wait to jump on the Us vs. Them wagon.

epoch said...

@El Lurker

One of the strangest things is how vaccination has become so politicized. Countries with high vaccination numbers basically have a population that consider a epidemic a moment to close ranks.

vAsiSTha said...

Target: UZB_Bustan_BA_o2:I11520
Distance: 1.3565% / 0.01356550
48.4 ivc_high_aasi_I8728
33.8 UZB_Bustan_BA
13.6 KAZ_Zevakinskiy_LBA
3.0 CHN_Tarim_EMBA2
0.8 TJK_Sarazm_En
0.4 RUS_Sintashta_MLBA

Just realized one of the bustan outliers is a son of an IVC person. sample dated to 1550bce

Garvan said...

I started out getting the Sinovac vaccine, and was switched to AstraZeneca when they realized Sinovac was ineffective against the delta variant. Apparently, the mix is working well. I am happy to accept whatever vaccines and boosters may be needed to help keep the older folk in my extended family safe. I will be old myself soon enough.

I am not optimistic about natural immunity form catching covid building up enough immunity in a population to put an end to this. For mild cases in young people, it helps with a faster immune response second time around, but it does not stop then getting and spreading it. Its like having one jab of Sinovac. Yes, it helps.

In terms of numbers, if the delta variant has r=6, then heard immunity clicks in at 1-1/r which is about 85%. This is not going to work out nicely anytime soon. Even if you vaccinated everybody, the vaccines are not effective enough to match that. I would like to think vAsiSTha's optimism is justified, but … no … I think this will be with us for a few years more.

vAsiSTha said...

"I would like to think vAsiSTha's optimism is justified, but … no … I think this will be with us for a few years more."

haha. im not optimistic though. i too think its going to be with us for years, regardless if 90% population is vaccinated or not. and the immunity doesnt last for ever with vaccine or natural immunity, so repeat boosters is the way forward.

in such a scenario it makes no sense to make enemy out of citizens and force them and ridicule/shame them. best one can do is protect our own families and not care about what others do or dont do.

Andrzejewski said...

Trump or Biden: regardless of who’s in charge these health officials are ineffective. No booster shots unless you’re 65 and over. No mix and match. Apparently it works in Germany, Israel, Canada, Hungary and the UK, but here we are stuck with delta, no booster, and blue state liberals calling out GOP governors about mask mandate but don’t make sure their OWN democrat ones actually mandate ones in public.

So this country is screwed!

Foxvillager said...

Covid 19 was planned from the globalists and the elite there is no doubt about it.Only some retards believe that the world we live is created from angels and we live in a happy fairytale that everything is perfect.Covid was a matter of time to spread out.They found the right time when the clown 'orange man' was at the office.The globalist agenda for the next ages will be:

1)Covid-19 and other related virus.Bill Gates has already mention there will be even worse pandemics in the future compared to Covid-19.
2)Green Energy and Green politics all over the world.This will create inflation and high taxes for working/middle class people.
3)Radical immigration towards the western world(See the Afghan issue and so on).The Demographics of EU(northwest EU) will be very diffrent in 50 years from now on.

Just have a look at the Great Reset of Mr.klaus Schwab from the Davos economic forum and what the elite imagine for our bright future...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHRkkeecg7c&ab_channel=WorldEconomicForum

The only thing i can agree with Globalists like Mr. Schwab,Bill Gates and other elite guys from Davos is that our world is overpopulated.If they want to decrease the human pop they should start with asia and africa and not replacing the western people from Europe,USA,Canada etc with 'non-western' people in our societies.India and China are the most important states they should start doing reformations when it comes to demographics and not Europe,USA or Canada/Australia etc.

Genos Historia said...

One must ask why Covid originated in Wuhan China, where the top Covid lab in the world is located.

China: Uh...it was the wet market.

I never believed China.

John Stewart on the wuhan lab leak truth Stephen Colbert
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6_snpkGbMY&ab_channel=JohnJohn

Genos Historia said...

@All,

Ever since Geneticker left, there's been a vacuum in ancient world. He used to compile list of Y DNA results, phenotype results for every major ancient DNA paper.

I'd encourage some of you guys who know how analyze Y DNA to do this. You can compile your results in a google spreadsheet or a blog, which you can then share with others. It is hard to keep track at the moment what ancient population has what Y DNA.

Davidski said...

Is Genetiker the wacko who claimed that ancient Peruvian mummies had European ancestry?

If so, then anything he posted should be ignored as a matter of principle.

Michalis Moriopoulos said...

Ah, Genetiker... the guy who believed in Nordic Guanches, Nordic Greeks, Black Olmecs, and Peruvian White Gods. His crazy ramblings make even the dumbass anti-vaxxers look sane. Don't get me started on Americans' attitude to Covid-- I'm absolutely disgusted by the stupidity and selfishness I see in my country coming from the "mah freedoms" crowd.

But Genos is right that nobody really keeps a running spreadsheet of phenotype predictions for ancient samples, which is a shame. Pigmentation is of perpetual interest, of course, but even traits like lactase persistance would be very helpful to track. Every once in a while an official paper (like the Italy BA one that came out recently) will include a spreadsheet with phenotype predictions concerning that paper's samples (and select published ones for comparison), but it would be nice if someone with the know-how could keep a website running that did just that for all the published samples we have. I'm sure some one here is up to it.

Romulus said...

Genetiker did good work and you pointlessly slander him because you are a bitch

Genos Historia said...

We all miss geneticker. :(

For pigmentation SNPs, there have been people gracious enough to get results for me. But I have only seen them get one allele call for each SNP.

Geneticker had a way of getting many calls for the same SNP which makes it more accurate. Some DNA studies do this.

Does anyone know how to do this?

https://genetiker.wordpress.com/2015/06/21/phenotype-snps-from-prehistoric-eurasia/

Genos Historia said...

Arza, PribiSlav are currently the only ones doing deep analysis of ancient Y DNA.

It would be greatly appreciated if you guys compiled your results into a spreadsheet which others of us could read.

Bastian Barx said...

I got two shots of the Pfizer vaccine. I never considered it for a moment. RNA vaccine's like Moderna and Pzifer are for sure less risky than getting Covid. Especially if you're over 40. Astra-zeneca and Johnson and Johnson is still safer than Covid. It's like one in a million a who gets the vaccine who gets these blood clot disorders and dies, but I'd still decline those.
I live in Denmark. Here 74% currently have two shots of Moderna or Pfizer and it feels pretty much like the epidemic is over, even though the weather is getting colder. The number of people in the hospital is dropping everyday. Not that it was ever really bad here like in southern Europe, America, Brazil or India. Even our neighbours like Sweden and Germany fared worse. I'm pretty sure we will all get a booster shot in the winter, and if new mutations appear we will tweak the vaccine to catch those too.

The interesting thing is, that as we get closer to herd immunity by vaccine here, the people who end up in the hospital are younger and younger and without comorbidities, because the age group that is the least vaccinated here are the 20-30 year olds.

Every one is at risk from getting seriously ill from Covid, and the harder you're hit by it, the greater the risk that you will suffer from headache, fatigue and loss of smell for years after. In Denmark about 10% of the hospitalized from Covid still had these symptoms many months later. I'd rather be vaccinated, but of cause, it should be your own choice.

Davidski said...

Please note that I didn't drink from the creek, but from my hydration pack. I've now made this clear in the post.

Sorry for any confusion.

Michalis Moriopoulos said...

@ Davidski

Nice photos! I hope your good times-to-misadventure ratio is weighted heavily toward the former term whenever you take these trips into the woods. First the rock cutting your foot, now giant ants-- yikes! Australia is scary as hell.

@ Romulus

Trust me, I'll sleep just fine knowing the guy playing for Team Lunatic thinks I'm a "bitch." But thanks for the laugh, malaka.

Yosepu said...

This might be a bit of a weird question but do you or anyone know the origins of the paternal Haplogroup T1a2b1a in Europe? I am trying to research exactly where it comes from, if it is from Romans or Kurdish people? On this ancestry website it claimed 98% of my entire autosomal DNA is Celtic/Germanic and it put me near British Bell Beakers but I have this weird haplogroup and 1% "Basque" 1% "Balari", which I assume is probably the T haplogroup.

Is there any information on how this haplogroup got to Europe, specifically Northern Europe? (My family is from the Netherlands, all otherwise blond/light brown hair, thin head, tall, blue eyed etc). I thought it might be from Old European farmers but apparently they only had T1a1a not T1a2b. I went on Eupedia and there were also people from Ireland and Latvia with the same subclade so my family cant be the only ones. Is there anything you might know about this rare haplogroup and how it wound up in my family tree in Europe?

Foxvillager said...

@ Yosepu

You are Dutch or of British background?I am confused...

Can you link your gedmatch kit?I would like to see how you plotting.Share also the Germano-Celtic PCA from Eurogenes if you have time.


Your Ydna is def associated with non-IE people.Prolly Slave-Trade during Roman times...or some isolated/hiden farmer lineage.

vAsiSTha said...

@foxvillager

".India and China are the most important states they should start doing reformations when it comes to demographics and not Europe,USA or Canada/Australia etc."

The problem is that you dont know the science about demography.

China population has already peaked and by 2100 it would be down to 800 million.

India population will peak by 2050 at 1.5bill and will be consistently lower from then on.

This is based on total fertility rate trends of reproductive age women.

"The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33–2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84–10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83–11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427])."

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

vAsiSTha said...

"23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (−6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098."

MH_82 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
vAsiSTha said...

@yosepu

There are 3 T1a2b1 in ancient records

1. a greek guy in india roopkund lake 1750ce. I3403 sample code

2. Italy_North_EarlyMedieval_Langobards_2 600ce. Sample CL23

3. Sweden viking. 1000ce. VK398

epoch said...

@Bastian Barx

How many weeks between the two shots? I am curious because the reports on serious waning immunity are mostly from the US, Qatar and Israel and these countries had a 3 week spacing between two shots.

Yosepu said...

@Foxvillager

I didnt use gedmatch, I used this website called MyTrueAncestry, maybe it is not very accurate. I am Dutch and it showed I was close to bell beakers especially a lot of the British and Scottish ones. Yea I could definitely see slavery being an origin

@vAsiSTha

Woah it was in a viking burial!? And those creepy frozen nomads in the Himalayas!? The North Italy and Viking burial stuff actually makes sense to me since all the people with my haplogroup on Eupedia are mainly from North Italy or random parts of north seas europe. Would it be safe to assume that this is my ancestor (or a relative) ?

Isnt 600CE around the time a lot of romans migrated out of the empire? Maybe my ancestor was a guy who was fed up with Rome and just decided to live with some barbarians instead lol

Foxvillager said...

@ Yosepu

I think you have to use either gedmatch or G25 to have a better view about your autosomal DNA.Being close to British Beakers its okay,since Dutch especially(North Dutch) are between British and Scandinavians.They are mostly Germanics that have assilimated Beaker people genetically close to British/Irish.That is also the reason they usually having a northwest shift.Now about your ydna as i mention above,it has nothing to do with IE folks.So,you can imagine anything else from slave-trade,farmer lineage to recent(medieval) immigration from south europe or west asia.

epoch said...

@Yosepu

How far back in time did you get with genealogical investigation? You should be able to get far as a lot of the Dutch records are online.

Romulus said...

All Genetiker was guilty of was supporting the theory that Solutreans crossed the Atlantic. But it's not fair to qualify that as lunatic. It's a well known theory that is derived from real artifacts found in North America.

Here is a great documentary from 2019 on that subject that treats it with scrutiny:

Did the first North Americans cross the Atlantic on an ice bridge? | The Nature of Things
168,902 views Jan 11, 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar_2mGxjqnk

I don't personally believe it, and I think Genetiker's attempts to show Paleolithic European ancestry in the Peruvian Mummies is a reflection of the shared ANE heritage between Europe and North America. Regardless it isn't a hypothesis worth of ostracizing him as a crazy person, that happened because he dared contradict the Anthony interpretation of Steppe theory at peak mania. It is disappointing to see intelligent people here perpetuating that. All of the work he did on Autosomal/Y-DNA/Phenotype SNPs was fully accurate and highly valuable. The Phenotype data was especially ahead of its time. It really is too bad he isn't still at it.

Romulus said...

I read this recently, it's fantastic:

WEAPONRY OF SOCIETIES OF THE NORTHERN PONTIC CULTURE CIRCLE: 5000-700 BC. Poznan, 2001 (Baltic-Pontic Studies, vol.10)

Free PDF:

https://www.academia.edu/36136973/WEAPONRY_OF_SOCIETIES_OF_THE_NORTHERN_PONTIC_CULTURE_CIRCLE_5000_700_BC_Poznan_2001_Baltic_Pontic_Studies_vol_10_

Romulus said...

Favorite Excerpt :

IV. WARFARE AND CULTURAL PROCESSES OF THE
LATE ENEOLITHIC - EARLY BRONZE AGE (2800-1900 BC)
IV.1. WARFARE OF SOCIETIES OF THE LATE ENEOLITHIC - EARLY
BRONZE AGE

The military function of some members of the society was underscored in the
burial rite of the Usatovo and the Sofievka groups of the late Tripolye. However,
although in this case we compare synchronous and somewhat related cultural gro ups, we should note that the structures of their societies and their reflections in the
burial rite are substantially different.
The Usatovo is linked by researchers to the proliferation of the barrow-ba sed rite & the steppe, which clearly reflects the cult of chiefs. The construction of
barrows and erecting other burial construction over the graves involved collective
labour of numerous groups of people who built grand structures, singular steppe
pyramids. The few chiefs buried in them had individual objects of 'status': metal
daggers and flat axes that represented their status, but their graves never conta ined the whole complex of weaponry. The Usatovo weaponry differed substantially
from the weapons of other groups of the Tripolye culture: it comprised new So uth Carpathian elements. In Usatovo, there are very few stone axe-hammers, but
metal weapons - flat axes and daggers -become widespread. The following com plex of weaponry has been reconstructed for this group: bows and arrows with flint
arrowheads, spears, flat copper axes, axe-hammers (hammers), and copper daggers.
Instead, weapons are present in practically all cemeteries of the Sofievka group
that contain male remains. Military chiefs here were buried in the same barrow with
other members of the society, and their graves differed from others only in terms
of the quantity and quality of weapons. They contained practically complete sets
of weapons of that period: arrows, darts, stone axe-hammers, flat copper hammers,
and daggers. The Sofievka barrows represent the weapons of old Tripolye types
(arrowheads, boat-shaped axe-hammers of the 'Balkans' type) as well as the weapons
linked by their origin to the Carpathian region (the axe-hammers of the 'Sofievka
type', the 'Sofievka' hammers, equilateral triangular arrowheads, dart-heads, knives-
-daggers of the 'Bodrogkereszt~r ' type, the daggers of the Krasny Khutor type).
Noteworthily, the finds feature both the quantitative and qualitative domination of
the types of weaponry that are new for the Tripolye. This suggests the syncretic
nature of the monuments of the Sofievka type and the new (for this region) cultural
elements that took part in its formation. The complex of weaponry of this group can
be reconstructed as follows: bows, stone axe-hammers and flat axes (main categories)
and copper daggers (rarely). In my opinion, the Sofievka barrows belonged to the
society that was permanently at war with the neighbours - most probably, in the
state of a military expansion. Hence, in the above examples, we can observe two
different structures of the society and two different military structures. While the
Usatovo monuments reflect the formation of the military aristocracy, the beginning
of the formation of a caste-based structure of the Aryan type, the Sofievka materials
illustrate the emergence of the society of military democracy, the beginning of the
formation of a structure of the Ancient Greek type.

The 'Usatovo societal type' was further developed in the Yamnaya culture. Par ticularly clear evidence of this are the barrows that contained carts and the increase
in the sue of the barrows, which required the involvement of increasingly large
human collectives in the construction process. The complex of weaponry of the
Yamnaya culture has been reconstructed as follows: bows and arrows with flint ar rowheads (used occasionally); darts with flint dart-heads; stone axe-hammers, rarely
- horn hammers and metal 'looped' axes; flint axes (rarely metal daggers).


Romulus said...

Pictures from the book of recreations of Norther Pontic Circle Warriors with their equipment:

https://imgur.com/a/NPqWasD

First guy is pre-Yamnaya Steppe i.e. Sredni Stog/Mariupol. The round things are mace heads.
Second guy is Tripolye. Third is Catacomb.

I did not know previously about how many metal weapons these people had.

Romulus said...

Compare the only R1b-L51 "CWC" burial from Bohemia with a weapon to the weapons found in Tripolye and Steppe Eneolothic (Sredni Stog):

https://i.imgur.com/zArxuNM.jpeg

Romulus said...

Final note just to repeat myself, I HIGHLY recommend this documentary on the Solutreans in North America, give it even the first 10 minutes you will not want to turn it off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar_2mGxjqnk

Bastian Barx said...

@Epoch

It was 5 weeks between, as I recall it.

In Denmark people have only been vaccinated with Moderna and Pfizer. Two shots 3-5 weeks between. In the beginning some people got Astra-zeneca and Johnson, but they were discontinued because of the blood clot issues. So they were sold or given to Ukraine I think. Since our situation wasn't that bad, the health authorities deemed, that even though it's just one in a million who gets these issues, it wouldn't be worth it.

Actually a girl (unvaccinated) at my job, got the delta variant like two months ago. I stayed in the same room as her, eating biscuits from the same can etc. Luckily I had just gotten my second jab just one week before. Nobody were infected, not even the people she shared office with. Quite surprising.

Genos Historia said...

@Romulus,

Thanks for linking that study. Those axes do look like Corded Ware axes. It seems obvious Corded Ware's battle axes came from already existing style common in Eastern Europe.

What is Early Middle Tripolye? Is it actually Ustavo?

I found "Zhivotilovka-type" burials to be most similar to Corded Ware. They have burial mounds, crouched burial position, include Amphorea, and Beakers. One burial has a shaft hole battle axe.

Genos Historia said...

Is anyone willing to carry on Geneticker's legacy?

Arza, Davidski, PribiSlav?

vAsiSTha said...

Took 1st jab of AstraZeneca today. Next in 15 weeks

Simon_W said...

Moderna chief Stephane Bancel recently said that the Covid-19 pandemic will be over in a year. Because by then every unvaccinated person will have been infected with delta and will have developped antibodies (or died, what he didn't say). And the vaccinated folks already have them. Most (but nit all) of the anti-vaxers will survive it and say "we have been saying it all along". Probably I would survive it without vaccine too. But by getting vaccinated I proved my solidarity and helped to avoid an overload of the healthcare system. As I grudgingly do with still wearing a mask in stores and public transport.

As for the rumors about the mRNA making infertile; the spike protein that's produced due to the vaccination has some short sequences of amino-acids in common with a protein necessary for the development of the placenta. But these are too short to cause a cross-reaction of the immune system. And anyway, millions of women have had contact with the spike protein due to infection and it's not known that they have any problems with fertility now.

People also say that they fear the unknown risks of long-term side-effects of the vaccines, because they have been so quickly developped and long-term data is still missing. But since the vaccine itself is quickly dispelled from the body without leaving direct remnants, possible long-term side-effects can only be unwanted reactions of the immune system, also knowm as autoimmune disorder. This cannot be excluded. But an infection with SarsCov-19 bears a bigger risk of causing an autoimmune disorder, because the virus (with its spike proteins) stays in the body for longer and in a bigger quantity than the spike protein caused by the vaccine. Luckily till now there are not many reports about autoimmune disorders caused by covid-19, which means it will happen even more rarely due to vaccination.

Genos Historia said...

@Romulus,

Let's be honest, Geneticker's theories were way off.

The Solutrean theory was sane in 2010, but by 2015 it no longer possible. He understood DNA enough to understand it was impossible.

Otherwise, yeah the other work he did was a staple part of ancient DNA research in blogosphere for me and others.

Simon_W said...

And yes I wrote something wrong. By now about 53% of the total Swiss population have been doubly vaccinated, not 50% of the adults as I wrongly assumed. Still, it's a lower percentage than in any other western European country. Of course not all of those opposing a vaccination are weird conspiracy theorists. Some just believe in the power of nature, of alternative medicine, herbs and the like. Others seem to be rebels who "defend" our constitution against "dictatoric" measures which are completely legal because of the democratically justified epidemic law. They say "my body, my decision", as if the topic was abortion, or amicable sex. In fact the Swiss canton with the lowest incidence of vaccinated people is Appenzell-Innerrhoden. These are those who also opposed to give political rights for women for the longest time. In other cantons however, a disproportional fraction of the hospitalized Covid-19 patients consists of foreigners from the Balkans and West Asia.

vAsiSTha said...

https://youtu.be/YUEw0L8VC7o

This is disgusting though

Genos Historia said...

More Xinjiang ancient DNA. This time mtDNA.

Ancient Xinjiang mitogenomes reveal intense admixture with high genetic diversity
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abd6690

It shows the same pattern as the genome wide DNA.

The Bronze age mtDNA from Tarim Basin mummies is all C4 and R1b1, aka indigenous inner Asian.

But the Iron age mtDNA in Tarim Basin is as European as it is Asian/Siberian.

Genos Historia said...

I am familiar with the differences between Andronovo & Afanasievo mtDNA.

So I will look at the Iron age mtDNA, to see if it fits with significant Afanasievo ancestry in Tocherians.

Genos Historia said...

I do see Andronovo specific mtDNA in the Iron age Tarim Basin.....
U2e1h, T1a1b, H5a1, H7b, N1a1a1a1

I don't see Afanasievo specific mtDNA yet.

Two Iron age sites have almost entirely European mtDNA. One site has almost entirely Asian mtDNA. Maybe marking of IE and non-IE ethnic groups.

I'll take a closer look later.

alex said...

"When_in_Rome said...
https://osf.io/yv8kc/
"Possible Correlation between COVID-19 Contagion and Y-DNA Haplogroup R1b"

Could be interesting research."

This sounds like a homework assignment from a 2nd year statistics student with too much free time. Next study we'll see what are the effects of being a Virgo or Gemini for COVID-19 susceptibility.

Genos Historia said...

I think the Tarim Mummy mtDNA confirms that mtDNA haplogroup C, is of ANE origin.

Davidski you suggested this years ago but I disagreed because it looks Eastern Asian today. Congrats, I think it looks you were right.

Looking back at ancient DNA, there is correlation between C4 and ANE.

All three Botai guys have mtDNA C4.

Haplogroup C4 is almost totally absent in Lake Baikal hunter gatherers. Then it appears as the most common haplogroup in the Bronze age when ANE ancestry became predominate.

Genos Historia said...

Correction. Botai mtDNA is not C4. I miss read.

But 2 of 3 of Botai mtDNA is ANE. Z1a, R1b1.

Z1a is a sister lineage to C, so is definitely also of ANE origin.

I think the ANE mtDNA in Europe, is U4.
The absence of indigenous U4 in Central Asia fits with the European ANE being from the Upper Paleolithic.

gamerz_J said...

A bit late but great pics of the monitors!

Also, to add to the poll/thread, I am also vaccinated and so are most people I know. Some people claimed that spoons and other metal objects could stick to their hands shortly after but alas nothing like that with mine.

One side effect of the whole vaccine situation is that I never expected so many people would have so strong/odd opinions about it.

gamerz_J said...

@Matt

Thanks for posting that, although I think their Yayoi models are quite improbable (Yayoi as a mix of Lokomotiv and Jomon?) otherwise an interesting paper that more or less makes sense to me since Japanese do not seem Amur river+Jomon but rather Koerean/Northern Han-like +Jomon

There was also this recent article on Native Americans being in the Americas about 22kya, since they were mentioned in this thread, some of you might find it interesting: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02597-1

Could be related to the pop Y signal some papers have found, though these people if different from the rest of the Native American ancestries seem to have went mostly extinct. (for lack of a better term, probably not the most accurate)

Romulus said...

@Genos

"What is Early Middle Tripolye? Is it actually Ustavo?"

This is from "Absolute Chronology of the Cucuteni Trypillian Culture"

https://i.imgur.com/Nm4syYJ.jpeg

epoch said...

"Next study we'll see what are the effects of being a Virgo or Gemini for COVID-19 susceptibility. "

You're a bit harsh but there have been several papers linking blood type O to a smaller chance of catching COVID (as there have been papers that said the same about SARS). However, larger scale research showed no such effect.

It happens a lot. Even statistical relevance doesn't mean *actual* cause and effect. It just means the chance that it is passed a certain threshold.

pnuadha said...

@ Simon W

These are those who also opposed to give political rights for women for the longest time.

Doesn't switzerland have a male only conscription? The men have a different and very significant responsibility that takes years of their lives. This also has implications for their safety. Furthermore there was a referendum in 2013 meaning the women got to vote to put men in conscription. This does not fit with equality at all. If men and women are going to have different responsibilities created by society then at least there should be different rights. Why would women get to vote on men fighting in war. This makes me think that a false equality is able to be pushed through some states more quickly because they are more vulnerable to social pressure rather than actual conviction.

Its similar to grand slam pay in tennis. The men draw more money but the women get paid the same in the name of "equality". Hence, men get a smaller percentage of what they actually bring iln. Wimbledon was the last grand slam venue to be bullied into taking this position. Most people recognize the slams were bullied into this position for what is little more than transferring wealth (and prestige) from the male players to the female players. You dont see male models doing this to female models; it has nothing to do with equality/principle.

Andrzejewski said...

@Genos “ The Bronze age mtDNA from Tarim Basin mummies is all C4 and R1b1, aka indigenous inner Asian.”

MtDNA C4 is East Asian but R1b1 is from Eastern Europe. Must be some “Eurasian” aka “Turanic admixture (part Steppe, part Asian).

Andrzejewski said...

@Genos “ U2e1h, T1a1b, H5a1, H7b, N1a1a1a1”

H5a1 and U2e1h were originally WSH, the rest are originally Neolithic European mtDNA haps, correct?

Andrzejewski said...

@Genos Disregard my comment re: R1b1. I mixed up between y and mtDNA r1b1 :)

Andrzejewski said...

@gamerz_J

1. There were 2 groups preceding Yayoi. Jomon were farmers, but there were people who came 22,000 years ago she were HG
It would be interesting to find out their respective genetic affiliations to ancient and modern groups.

2. It can’t be that Native Americans lived 22kya, given that MA1 was only 2kyo older.

Romulus said...

I added Yamnaya and CWC dates overtop of the late Tripolye settlement chronology:

hhttps://i.imgur.com/wFjSW5g.jpeg

You can see 2900 BCE corresponds very precisely to the end of all Tripolye settlements from Usatovo at the Black Sea all the way to north to Kiev(Sofievskaya). The northern areas (Sofievskaya, Gordineshtskaya, Gorodskaya) seem to have an influx of migration 3000-2900 BCE before dropping off completely, reflecting the northwards migration route.

MH_82 said...

Here is a more sober fact sheet about Covid

Davidski said...

@Rob

If it's business as usual, then why are hospitals implementing crisis standards of care where vaccination rates are low?

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2021/09/21/idaho-hospitals-covid-surge

And it's not like this is anything new. I talked about triage in north Italian hospitals due to Covid almost two years ago.

https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19sars-cov-2-open-thread.html

mary said...

I think this is bombastic:

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/24/1040381802/ancient-footprints-new-mexico-white-sands-humans


Who were these first Americans?

a said...


It would be nice to see the breakthrough cases made public; since Israel largely uses Pfizer(the same Pfizer clinical trials of Trovan in Kano-Nigeria // investigated by dept of justice 2009 with settlement payout )., when compared to under-1) fully vaxxed - under- vaxxed -anti- vaxxed.

4th injection?
Virus czar calls to begin readying for eventual 4th vaccine dose
https://www.timesofisrael.com/virus-czar-calls-to-begin-readying-for-eventual-4th-vaccine-dose/

Question, if the mrna vaccines are proven "leaky"(like in Israel) and Corona virus exists in animal populations like bats, and dear, exactly how does one expect to stop the spread of new mutating strains ?

claravallensis said...

Etruscan study is out. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abi7673

I wonder, I remember maybe you David mentioning Osco-Umbrians should appear in a specific study about Italics, does this paper largely settle the broad profile of central Italy in the first millennium BC or can we expect some surprises?

a said...

Just trying to make sense of latest Israel stats. For example, are these patients vaccinated with Pfizer? Out of the 493, are any under vaccinated, Is 1 dose defined as unvaxxed? (1 dose?) 1 dose 2 dose 3 dose etc.....

https://www.timesofisrael.com/number-of-covid-patients-on-ventilators-hits-highest-level-since-march/



"The vast majority of both new infections and serious cases have been among those who are not vaccinated. According to the ministry, 493 of those in serious condition were unvaccinated, compared with 134 patients who were vaccinated with two doses, and 55 patients who received a third dose of the coronavirus vaccine."

Genos Historia said...

@Andrze,

H5a1 is originally Neolithic farmer, Globular Amphora. It was widely distributed by Corded Ware and its descendants.

T1a1 is WSH. But T1a1b originated specifically in Corded Ware. Its the type in Andronovo and in Iron age Tarim Basin.

Yeah the rest are Neolithic farmer, that's partly why I know they come from Andronovo not Afanasievo.

Romulus said...

Who said there was going to be I1 in the Etruscans? FAKE NEWS

Romulus said...

I believe the best explanation for this East Med shift in the Roman Imperial samples is that even though it looks more Anatolian than Greek, it IS Greek. The Anatolian shift in the Greeks must have happened as a result of the formation of Alexander's empire 323 BCE, then when the Romans absorbed the Greeks they got this shift.

Genos Historia said...

I used to think this.

But they are more Levanty than anything. So now I think this has to do with Greek colonies mixing with Phenocian colonies.

This is why they show up in Etrusia. Etruscans had closer contacts with Greek & Phenocian colonies than to Greece itself. Hence we see immigrants with strange mixed Greek & Levantie ancestry.

MH_82 said...

Etruscans seem to mirror rest of Italy in terms of demographic impacts, more or less.
Even with more 'Villanovan' aDNA, i dont think aDNA will neatly solve the question of Etruscan language origins. Here is where understanding sociolinguistics and theoretical archaeology comes in

Romulus said...

In particular, and contrary to previous suggestions [see, e.g., (9, 10)], the Etruscan-related gene pool does not seem to have originated from recent population movements from the Near East. Etruscans carry a local genetic profile shared with other neighboring populations such as the Latins (table S2F) from Rome and its environs despite the cultural and linguistic differences between the two neighboring groups (17).

There. Now anyone suggesting a non-local origin for the Etruscans can please shut the fuck up forever.

Genos Historia said...

Lol.

Yeah, it looks like the same situation as for Basque and Iberian in Spain.

Indo European ancestry, Indo European Y DNA, but none-IE language.

It just means sometimes Bell Beaker adopted the language of their native wives. That's probably it.

Genos Historia said...

There might be some West Balkan ancestry in Etruscans. Eg Y DNA J2b2a.

But I mean c'mon. A Balkan origin, shouldn't be taken as seriously as a native Italian origin for their language.

The Ancient DNA from Apulia shows more Balkan influence in Y DNA. J2b2a and R1b Z2103. Yet they spoke Illyrian language not Etruscan.

MH_82 said...

Herodotus est mendax

MH_82 said...

''It just means sometimes Bell Beaker adopted the language of their native wives. That's probably it''

Probably a tad more complex than that

Romulus said...

It was a migration of male feminists who white knighted the manlet farmers into extinction? By adopting a subservient position to their women? Justin Trudeau and Stephen Colbert do belong to R1b so there is a basis there I suppose.

The position of women in the ancient world was of property(sorry). I will trade you 5 cows for your daughter. That is how our ancestors across the world did it. I am not a sexist this is just reality. That perfectly explains the farmer women in those Lech valley Beakers. The Steppe people integrated farmer women but they also brought their own. Good luck convincing your Mother and Sisters to start speaking your Wife's language, I see this as not possible even within the context of Chimpanzees or Homo Erectus.

MH_82 said...

The G2a in Etruscans could be a clue. Seems like Oetzi line

Carlos Aramayo said...

"It was a migration of male feminists who white knighted the manlet farmers into extinction?"

Perhaps the Bell Beakers rather submitted to the dictates of the male elite of the Etruscans.

Romulus said...

@Carlos

that's hard to believe considering the 100% replacement in Iberia

Alexandros said...

Keep up the nature/hiking posts David. Nice break from the norm..

Re COVID vaccines, as an Epidemiologist, what I have to say is that if the world (the developed world at least) took up the available vaccines with less hesitation and we swiftly reached vaccination coverages of >90% across countries, this would mean the end of COVID-19, at least in high-income countries. Now it seems we are living the scenario where COVID-19 becomes globally endemic. Yes under control, but still endemic..

Looking forward to a post on the Etruscan DNA study. Pretty interesting stuff, not only for central Italy, but the whole Italian peninsula!

MH_82 said...

its funny how some people are so confident based on zero facts.
Well, there are some facts - big pharma is the winner here

Davidski said...

I'd rather put my faith in a vaccine that is proving safe and effective than gambling with at least a stay in hospital, and maybe worse than that.

Thank you Dr Pfizer!

Wise dragon said...

@Romulus,

A likely scenario could be, that the Bell Beaker males weren‘t much involved in raising their kids, thus delegated the child-rearing mostly to the mothers. Therefore, the children learned the language of their mothers. And later the fathers also spoke the Non- IE language in order to communicate with their children once they got older. Over time the language of the fathers got lost.

MH_82 said...

By all means- vaccinate the at-risk, as long as they informed about the lack of RCTs or even long-term observational studies

Davidski said...

Safety of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00878-5

MH_82 said...

Recent studies have shown that Beaker people had nuclear families. So we cant just explain away with absentee fathers. In fact, their male children in Iberia were buried with high quality gifts, meaning there was a strong link & connection.

But the truth of the matter is Bell beaker culture itself had little impact in Italy. it doesn't make sense to speak of Bell Beaker when talking about LBA-IA early Etruscans

Wise dragon said...

@Rob,

I understand where you're coming from.

Considering the fact, that vaccination against Covid means at best only self-protection, thus not the protection of others, then it is unfair to condemn people that don't want to or are hesitant to get a vaccine. It's not fair when people that don't get vaccinated are being blasted as selfish, stupid, or antisocial. The level of hatred, contempt and verbal abuse folks have to face who are sceptical or reject the vaccines, is staggering. Matter of fact, Covid Vaccines don‘t really protect anyone from spreading or getting infected with Covid. It rather makes the course of the disease less severe. However, we should not forget, that the survival rate for Covid is in the 99% range. Hence, whether someone wants to be vaccinated or not, should be a personal choice and part of the individual responsibility of people. Therefore, it's wrong to put people under moral pressure in order to make them getting vaccinated.





Davidski said...

@Wise dragon

Considering the fact, that vaccination against Covid means at best only self-protection...

This isn't a fact. You just made it up.

That's when I stopped reading your garbage comment.

Wise dragon said...

@Romulus,

Who would've thought, that the mysterious Etruscans were majority R1b, and to a lesser extent G2a? I was expecting to see more of the hp J2b. Anyway, it seems that the people who were theorizing about a significant Levantine gene flow and then a substantial Germanic influx to Italy were right.

Wise dragon said...

@Davidsk,
I didn't make it up. I was rather stating what some studies that were shown in mainstream media, (Germany) were concluding. Plus, I'm not against vaccines, but for freedom of choice. It's beyond me why people who are pro-vaccines react always so ultra rude toward anyone who believes, that people should have a choice whether they want to be vaccinated or not.
Here is a link in german. You can translate and read it, if you don't believe me.
https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/wieder-ist-delta-schuld-oxford-studie-befeuert-virus-verdacht-geimpfte-sind-scheinbar-so-ansteckend-wie-ungeimpfte_id_17480870.html

MH_82 said...

A substantial Germanic impact was to be expected given that half of East Central Europe became emptied of humans

MH_82 said...

Davidski; clinicians have a mandate to protect their patients- the mantra “above all do no harm”
The “average person” stands to gain little from the covid vaccine ; and is therefore being exposed to possible adverse reactions. Anaphylaxis happens all the time ; and that’s not going into DVTs and other unknown long term effects
I’m pretty sure what the Aus govt is doing violates basic human rights; and are liable to huge repercussions in the future.

Davidski said...

@Wise dragon

You misinterpreted the article.

This only applies to vaccinated people who actually get infected, and vaccinated people rarely get infected. From your article...

The likelihood of infection after a full vaccination is still low, as study director Sarah Walker told the Reuters news agency. But anyone who becomes infected as a vaccinated person has a similarly high virus concentration as someone who was not vaccinated at all.

Look up the word "efficacy".

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2113017

Then change your handle to Idiot dragon.

Davidski said...

@Rob

Can you point me to a reliable source of info that backs up your claim that "anaphylaxis happens all the time" from the three Covid vaccines used in Australia?

This is the first I'm hearing about this, but I have already seen quite a few people seriously ill with Delta in hospitals in Sydney and Melbourne, the vast majority of whom weren't vaccinated.

Andrzejewski said...

@Davidski “ I'd rather put my faith in a vaccine that is proving safe and effective than gambling with at least a stay in hospital, and maybe worse than that.

Thank you Dr Pfizer!”

That’s why I’m disappointed that FDA declined to approve booster shots for the general pop, as well as a “mix and match” between different vaccines.

MH_82 said...

@ Dave

''Can you point me to a reliable source of info that backs up your claim that "anaphylaxis happens all the time" from the three Covid vaccines used in Australia?''

That's not what I said. I said anaphylaxis happens all the time, potentially to any medication. Vacccines are no exception. This is a reality because I see it first hand
Overall, up to 5% of people have experienced some form of anaphylaxis, and up to 25% of people in a hospital setting have experienced some form of adverse drug reaction

Andrzejewski said...

@Rob “ A substantial Germanic impact was to be expected given that half of East Central Europe became emptied of humans”

I would attribute the early medieval “population replacement” by Slavic and Germanic tribes to a large extent to the Justinian Plague. 50M people, half of the Roman and Byzantine empires perished, and whole cities got completely depopulated. The success of the Anglo-Saxon in the 500AD owes a lot to the decimation of the ancestors of the the Brythonic Welsh, akin to what Native Americans went through a millennium later.

Davidski said...

@Rob

A lot of people have been vaccinated against Covid this year, and the risks involved with getting Pfizer, Moderna or even AstraZeneca compared to with those of catching Delta are extremely low.

And I'm not aware of any potential long term effects of any of these vaccines. Is there any reliable reading about this?

Wise dragon said...

Davidski,

No need to be rude, sir. There are different studies about the effect of vaccines.

Here is another link from the same newspaper. I had conflated this article with the one I have sent to you.

Was Fachleuten allerdings Sorgen macht, sind Anzeichen, dass auch Geimpfte sich nicht nur infizieren, sondern zumindest einige dieser Infizierten das Virus sogar in dem Maße weitergeben könnten, wie Ungeimpfte es tun. Derzeit spielen Impfdurchbrüche für die Gesamtzahl der Infektionen kaum eine Rolle - das könnte sich mit steigenden Impf- und Genesenenzahlen im Laufe der Zeit ändern. Die Behörde empfiehlt inzwischen wieder Masken für Geimpfte. Es gebe neue Daten, nach denen Geimpfte mit einer Infektion ebenso hohe Viruskonzentrationen im Rachen haben wie Ungeimpfte, begründet das CDC den Schritt.


What worries experts, however, are signs that vaccinated people not only become infected, but that at least some of these infected people might even pass the virus on to the same extent as those who have not been vaccinated.�� At the moment, breakthroughs in vaccination hardly play a role in the total number of infections - this could change over time as the number of vaccinations and convalescence increases. Because while it was previously assumed that infected vaccinated people hardly pass the virus on, the US disease protection agency CDC has now come to a different conclusion. The authority is now recommending masks for vaccinated people again.�� There are new data, according to which vaccinated people with an infection have just as high virus concentrations in the throat as unvaccinated people, the CDC justifies the step.

https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/angesteckt-trotz-impfung-was-impfdurchbrueche-wirklich-bedeuten_id_13547495.html

Streeck über Corona: Der Impfschutz vor der Infektion wird überschätzt
Die Gefahr habe laut dem Bonner Virologen Streeck zufolge weniger mit der Delta-Variante* zu tun. Ein anderer Punkt sei bei dem dynamischen Infektionsgeschehen entscheidend: „Was ich annehme, ist, dass der Impfschutz vor der Infektion überschätzt wird.“ Der Impfstoff schütze vor einem schweren Verlauf einer Coronainfektion. Er diene dem eigenen Schutz, sei kein Fremdschutz.

„Wir müssen uns alle impfen lassen, damit wir keinen schweren Verlauf haben - uns selber schützen“, appelliert Virologe Streeck im ntv-Gespräch. Denn: „Eine Herdenimmunität werden wir mit diesem Impfstoff* leider nicht erreichen.“


Translation:

Streeck about Corona: The vaccination protection against infection is overestimated
According to the Bonn virologist Streeck, the danger has less to do with the Delta variant *. Another point is crucial in the dynamic infection process: "What I assume is that the vaccination protection against infection is overestimated."�� The vaccine protects against a severe course of a corona infection. It is for your own protection, not for third-party protection.

"We all have to get vaccinated so that we don't have a difficult course - protect ourselves", appeals virologist Streeck in an interview with ntv. Because: "Unfortunately, we will not achieve herd immunity with this vaccine *." ✋


https://www.merkur.de/welt/deutschland-streeck-hendrik-virologe-corona-impfschutz-infektion-vierte-welle-herbst-zr-90874944.html

So, as you can see I was quoting an expert and NOT MAKING ANYTHING UP.

MH_82 said...

@ Dave
For a general overview of adverse drug reactions, here
We can't discuss raw data at present from health districts yet, it'll take a while to be published.

Im not saying covid vaccines arent safe. What I am saying is (i) vaccination should be tailored. Adverse reactions occur more in younger patients (due to the 'briskness' of their immune response) who are less likely to actually need it in the first place. Hence, it should have been rolled out earlier & targeted to those with COPD, immunocompromise, age > 65, & healthcare workers. The rest of the populace should have been encouraged to get the vaccine, but not coerced to do so.
(ii) there has been a general neglect in the health pre-optimization side of things.

Davidski said...

@Idiot dragon

Streeck just claims that the efficacy of the vaccines at preventing infection (and thus spread) is overestimated, but he doesn't claim that it's zero.

And it's not like he has the final word about this anyway.

You claim that it's zero, and that "at best" vaccines only protect the vaccinated.

Davidski said...

@Rob

There's a lot of dodgy medication on the market.

But this isn't an argument against the main Covid vaccines, which I think are doing better than probably even their greatest proponents hoped for in private before they were developed.

MH_82 said...

@ David

''There's a lot of dodgy medication on the market.''

No that's not the issue. Hospitals don't use 'dodgy medications', anywhere in the world. ADRs are due to idiosyncratic patient factors & human error in administration.

''But this isn't an argument against the main Covid vaccines, which I think are doing better than probably even their greatest proponents hoped for in private before they were developed.''

it's part of the pro/con discussion which any treatment requires.

Wise dragon said...

@Daviskdi,

You falsely accused me of making stuff up. And you keep on insulting me instead to tone down your attacks after I sourced up my claims. The takeaway from what this expert said, was that vaccination is rather self-protection than the protection of others. Period. Besides, I was being sloppy by saying "at best" you get worked up one that one word while not bothering to read the entire comment.

However, this comes from the USA.
"........Because while it was previously assumed that infected vaccinated people hardly pass the virus on, the US disease protection agency CDC has now come to a different conclusion. The authority is now recommending masks for vaccinated people again. There are new data, according to which vaccinated people with an infection have just as high virus concentrations in the throat as unvaccinated people, the CDC justifies the step."

So, CDC isn't the opinion that vaccinated people hardly pass the virus. Just saying.

Davidski said...

@Idiot dragon

The expert doesn't claim what you claim

You claim that vaccination "at best" only protects the vaccinated, while Streeck just claims that the efficacy of the vaccines to stop the spread of the virus is "overestimated".

The CDC also doesn't claim what you claim. It claims that it's possible for vaccinated people to pass on the virus, but since only some vaccinated people become infected, then obviously most can't pass on the virus.

Get the facts straight before spewing your fantasies here.

Wise dragon said...


@Davidski

This is not my imagination or my words but quoted straight from an article.

"..Because while it was previously assumed that infected vaccinated people hardly pass the virus on, the US disease protection agency CDC has now come to a different conclusion. The authority is now recommending masks for vaccinated people again. There are new data, according to which vaccinated people with an infection have just as high virus concentrations in the throat as unvaccinated people, the CDC justifies the step."

Which part of the CDC came to a different conclusion than the previous assumption that vaccinated folks hardly pass the virus, did I get wrong? You accuse me of things, while I bring up straight quotes.

In addition, you always omit this part of what Streek said.

The vaccine protects against a severe course of a corona infection. It is for your own protection, not for third-party protection.☝☝☝

"We all have to get vaccinated so that we don't have a difficult course - protect ourselves", appeals virologist Streeck in an interview with ntv. Because: "Unfortunately, we will not achieve herd immunity with this vaccine *.

These quotes are not my imagination at all, but words that came straight out of Streek's mouth. Again, NOT ME but the expert Streek is claiming that vaccination is for your own protection, not for third-party protection.☝☝☝ You can't run from this fact.

Plus, you're also ignoring that I already said, I was sloppy by using the term "at best": Thus, stop reducing my whole comments on the term "at best".


Anyway, I am out of this discussion since normal and respectful conservation about the pros and cons of Covid vaccinations with pro-vaccination folks, isn't possible and always turns ugly. I already have observed it on other forums.

vAsiSTha said...

Davidski, you yourself need to be up to date with facts rather than consuming everything you get from the media, especially (and only) with regard to vaccine effectivess against transmission of covid and the fact that you blame unvaccinated for all ills on the planet.

Here is UK govt published weekly vaccine surveillance report dated 23-sep-2021, ie 2 days back.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019992/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_38.pdf

Please note

"Results
The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 39. In individuals aged greater than 40, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated. This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns."

This is fascinating..
How is it that above age40 individuals are testing +ve at 1.5x higher rates? here is a snapshot of the table in question. pg 13 of the pdf

https://imgur.com/P2fJ7C0

Richard Rocca said...

Etruscan study is out. Would be good for a blog about European genetics would have a topic on this since the question of their origin has been around for 2000 years ;)

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abi7673

vAsiSTha said...

https://imgur.com/613kXJK

All should have a look at this snapshot from the UK vaccine surveillance report.

key takeaways

1. Vaccines DO NOT REDUCE covid +ve rate.
2. Vaccines REDUCE hospitalization rates by a large percentage.
3. Vaccines REDUCE death rate by a large percentage.

This is my overall position on this matter too.

Davidski said...

@Idiot dragon

Yes, you're imagining things.

It seems that you can't get your head around the fact that some vaccinated people can get infected, and these infected people spread the virus.

I'm guessing that you're suffering from some sort of psychiatric condition or your IQ is very low.

Davidski said...

@vAsiSTha

Vaccinations do reduce the Covid rate, all other things being equal. But they're not equal, because there's no lockdown in the UK now.

Mounting evidence suggests COVID vaccines do reduce transmission

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/mounting-evidence-suggests-covid-vaccines-do-reduc

MH_82 said...

@ Anfdrze

''I would attribute the early medieval “population replacement” by Slavic and Germanic tribes to a large extent to the Justinian Plague. 50M people, half of the Roman and Byzantine empires perished, and whole cities got completely depopulated. The success of the Anglo-Saxon in the 500AD owes a lot to the decimation of the ancestors of the the Brythonic Welsh, akin to what Native Americans went through a millennium later.''

Let's not over estimate the figures
The de-Romanization of various regions was multifactorial, incl tactical population withdrawal by the Romans, as I pointed out in the 'Balkan' thread. I dont think there's evidence for Welsh being exterminated, either.

Carlos Aramayo said...

Did you already see this?

Saupe et al, (2021). "Ancient genomes reveal structural shifts after the arrival of Steppe-related ancestry in the Italian Peninsula", in Current Biology, Volume 31, Issue 12.

https://tinyurl.com/4j96k9t7

"...Our study confirms a diversity of ancestry components during the Chalcolithic and the arrival of Steppe-related ancestry in the central Italian Peninsula as early as 1600 BCE, with this ancestry component increasing through time..."

And that the individual BRC003 from Broion, dated to 1532–1452 cal BCE, harbors (mtDNA) U4a2f and Y-haplogroup R1b1’5-P312.

Palacista said...

The raging continuation of the pandemic in MAGAland should be a warning to the antivax brigade.

vAsiSTha said...

Lockdown or no lockdown is not relevant when comparing vaccinated to unvaccinated because it applies to both.

How do you explain higher rate of COVID +ve nose and throat swabs per 100000 vaccinated UK citizens than unvaccinated? (Above 40 age only)

The report you linked is from May.

vAsiSTha said...

"Peak levels
The study shows that vaccinated people who become infected with the Delta variant carry high peak levels of virus. When the Alpha variant was dominant in the United Kingdom, vaccinated people who became infected had much lower peak viral loads."

“Anyone who thinks that if they get infected having been vaccinated, they can’t transmit — that isn’t likely to be true.”

COVID vaccines protect against Delta, but their effectiveness wanes
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02261-8

So vaccinated people (>40age in UK) not just get infected at similar or higher rates than unvaccinated, but also carry high viral loads and can transmit the virus.

epoch said...

The spike proteins are the tools the virus uses to enter the host cell by means of the ACE2 receptor. A small part of those proteins is crucial in that process, the so called Receptor Binding Domain. Antibodies binding to that are will prevent the virus to bind to the ACE2 receptor and thus prevent the virus replication. Antibodies that do not prevent the function of the RBD will still trigger a response, the infected host cell will be killed by so called killer cells. The latter process, however, is crude and can even go berserk in a so called cytokinetic storm, causing death.

Since the RBD is so important to the binding it can't mutate all that much so it is very unlikely that the virus will escape neutralizing antibodies.

All of which makes it sure that it would be HIGHLY unlikely that vaccines or previous infection will have no effect on the transmissibility. Even if all antibodies are removed from the blood reinfection will cause B-cells that learned from the vaccine and remained in the body to immediately start reproducing them resulting in a PCR detectable infection, but a very short one, which also will have great impact on transmissibility.

B-cells will remain a very much longer time than antibodies itself. A booster will cause more COVID targeting B-cells will to remain: It is not a temporary measure, it has the potential to be a longer lasting solution - even when this isn't sure. There are a lot of vaccinations that require boosters before becoming longer lasting e.g. Gardasil against HPV.

Andrzejewski said...

@Rob “ I dont think there's evidence for Welsh being exterminated, either.”

I beg to differ: a few years ago I watched a documentary that detailed how an army chief named Ambrosius (maybe the legendary “King Arthur”) managed to check the English for 50 years in a series of victories. Not long afterwards, circa ~540-555 the effects of the Justinian Plague ravaged the native population. Since Brythonic were traditionally a part of the Roman Empire, they traded with plague infested Mediterranean Europe, therefore being prone to a much higher hit than the Saxons. The consequences were very similar to what happened to the Aztecs following Correz’s inadvertent and unwitting introduction of smallpox.

It’s estimated that roughly 50% of the ancestors of the Welsh perished, and as a side effect the AS were capable of further advancing and pushing back the Britons.

epoch said...

@Vasishta

Even waning immunity is not an argument that vaccines have no influence on transmissibility, because it's the waning effectiveness rather than the workings of the vaccine induced immunity response that causes it.

A booster will reinstate effectiveness and thereby restore the ability to stop transmission.

MH_82 said...

@ Andrze

''I beg to differ: a few years ago I watched a documentary that detailed how an army chief named Ambrosius (maybe the legendary “King Arthur”) managed to check the English for 50 years in a series of victories. Not long afterwards, circa ~540-555 the effects of the Justinian Plague ravaged the native population. Since Brythonic were traditionally a part of the Roman Empire, they traded with plague infested Mediterranean Europe, therefore being prone to a much higher hit than the Saxons. The consequences were very similar to what happened to the Aztecs following Correz’s inadvertent and unwitting introduction of smallpox.''


If we look at the archaeological evidence of Anglo-Saxon material culture, by 540 the lowland conquest was a fait accompli
Although i don;t necessarily disagree, I have read that recent scholarship has felt that the Justinianian plague efects have been overestimated

vAsiSTha said...

@epoch

Just look at the UK data which I posted and explain to me why vaccinated UK people have higher rates per 100000 of COVID +ve tests than unvaccinated.

Davidski said...

WTF?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/

epoch said...

@Vasishta

Who knows, it's raw data. Something the paper explicitly states in the chapter "Interpretation of the data".

However, if this is something specific for vaccines, as you suggest, how come the opposite is true <40 years?

vAsiSTha said...

@davidski

i do not know if youre being intentionally dense. I am posting latest primary data from the UK govt website, not secondary research. I want an explanation for the primary data.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019992/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_38.pdf

Pg 13 table 2 (23 sep report)

Rates of covid +ve (tested in last 3 weeks) per 100,000 people
Age 40-49 - Vaccinated 1151.2, unvaccinated 787.1
Age 50-59 - Vaccinated 912.3, unvaccinated 634.4
Age 60-69 - Vaccinated 661.2, unvaccinated 432.1
Age 70-79 - Vaccinated 492, unvaccinated 359.8
Age 80+ - Vaccinated 403.4, unvaccinated 386.1

This is not an outlier report, last 3 weeks all tables are of similar nature. Prior to that this data was not made available in weekly reports.

This is the link where all vaccine surveillance reports are available
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-surveillance-report

vAsiSTha said...

"However, if this is something specific for vaccines, as you suggest, how come the opposite is true <40 years?"

@epoch
I have no explanation. All I know from that data is that vaccines aren't stopping infection for above 40 aged UK citizens.

vAsiSTha said...

One possible explanation is that since higher age folks were vaccinated first, the waning immunity from vaccines caused higher rates of infection. But that still doesn't explain why their rates are higher than unvaccinated in the same age group.

Davidski said...

It's probably because they were vaccinated first, over 6 months ago.

So they need their booster shots.

Or, if they're all getting infected, then they don't need a booster shot, because they've got natural immunity now.

epoch said...

@vasishta

"All I know from that data is that vaccines aren't stopping infection for above 40 aged UK citizens."

No, you don't. It is only reported positive PCR tests. You need to analyse the data to make a conclusion. There is enough evidence that vaccines work to prevent transmission, even against Delta. See e.g. from that Nature study you linked above.

"The results, published in a preprint on 19 August1, suggest that both vaccines are effective against Delta after two doses, but that the protection they offer wanes with time. The vaccine made by Pfizer in New York City and BioNTech in Mainz, Germany, was 92% effective at keeping people from developing a high viral load — a high concentration of the virus in their test samples — 14 days after the second dose. But the vaccine’s effectiveness fell to 90%, 85% and 78% after 30, 60 and 90 days, respectively."

Davidski said...

@vAsiSTha

But that still doesn't explain why their rates are higher than unvaccinated in the same age group.

Probably because most of the unvaccinated already had Covid and survived, so they're immune.

epoch said...

@vasishta

For one thing: For about 8000 of positive tested in that table for 40-49 the vaccination status is simply unknown. If they all are unvaccinated, which seems logical, the vaccinated are not the majority anymore.

a said...

Davidski said...
WTF?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/

This is the latest news data, https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/09/26/ontarios-daily-covid-19-case-numbers-continue-to-trend-downward.html

"The province reports 398 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in unvaccinated people, 39 were partially vaccinated, and 154 cases in fully vaccinated people. Again, the province warns the data may not match daily COVID case counts because records with a missing or invalid health card number can’t be linked."

Odd that there are more fully vaxxed infected than partially vaxxed, 39 versus 154, you think that number would have been reversed.


a said...

Even in Jamaica this has become a hot topic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp48y014kaY

Protest in Jamaica we stand together and fight for our rights, Bob Marley Get Up Stand Up.

Davidski said...

More vaccinated people are now getting Covid in many countries, because more people are vaccinated, and quite a few got their vaccination over 6 months ago.

a said...

Davidski said...
More vaccinated people are now getting Covid in many countries, because more people are vaccinated, and quite a few got their vaccination over 6 months ago."

That's why a vaxx profiling and passport vaxx apartheide, makes no sense. Some people only have two mrna shots, some dont use mrna shots like the excempt(New York says UNGA delegates must be vaccinated, angering Russia) UN people meeting UN delegates, use sputnik and sinovac etc... https://news.yahoo.com/york-says-un-general-assembly-184348120.html some only have 2 not 3 etc boosters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fOPf12f8UE


Tel Aviv, Israel, Protest against the domestic vaccine pass.

a said...

On the funny side.



A protest in Vancouver is lining up to boycott Earl’s in Vancouver who allegedly called the cops and had a man arrested for not having a COVID Passport. Indeed, if vaccinated people can still get and spread COVID, then what is the point behind COVID Passports? The unvaccinated would be the ones at risk – not the vaccinated. So something does not add up.





Abbott & Costello’s famous skit “Who’s on First Base.” Updated to COVID
Bud: ‘You can’t come in here!’

Lou: ‘Why not?’

Bud: ‘Well because you’re unvaccinated.’

Lou: ‘But I’m not sick.’

Bud: ‘It doesn’t matter.’

Lou: ‘Well, why does that guy get to go in?’

Bud: ‘Because he’s vaccinated.’

Lou: ‘But he’s sick!’

Bud: ‘It’s alright. Everyone in here is vaccinated.’

Lou: ‘Wait a minute. Are you saying everyone in there is vaccinated?’

Bud: ‘Yes.’

Lou: ‘So then why can’t I go in there if everyone is vaccinated?’

Bud: ‘Because you’ll make them sick.’

Lou: ‘How will I make them sick if I’m NOT sick and they’re vaccinated.’

Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’

Lou: ‘But they’re vaccinated.’

Bud: ‘But they can still get sick.’

Lou: ‘So what the heck does the vaccine do?’

Bud: ‘It vaccinates.’

Lou: ‘So vaccinated people can’t spread covid?’

Bud: ‘Oh no. They can spread covid just as easily as an unvaccinated person.’

Lou: ‘I don’t even know what I’m saying anymore. Look. I’m not sick.

Bud: ‘Ok.’

Lou: ‘And the guy you let in IS sick.’

Bud: ‘That’s right.’

Lou: ‘And everybody in there can still get sick even though they’re vaccinated.’

Bud: ‘Certainly.’

Lou: ‘So why can’t I go in again?’

Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’

Lou: ‘I’m not asking who’s vaccinated or not!’

Bud: ‘I’m just telling you how it is.’

Lou: ‘Nevermind. I’ll just put on my mask.’

Bud: ‘That’s fine.’

Lou: ‘Now I can go in?’

Bud: ‘Absolutely not?’

Lou: ‘But I have a mask!’

Bud: ‘Doesn’t matter.’

Lou: ‘I was able to come in here yesterday with a mask.’

Bud: ‘I know.’

Lou: So why can’t I come in here today with a mask? ….If you say ‘because I’m unvaccinated’ again, I’ll break your arm.’

Bud: ‘Take it easy buddy.’

Lou: ‘So the mask is no good anymore.’

Bud: ‘No, it’s still good.’

Lou: ‘But I can’t come in?’

Bud: ‘Correct.’

Lou: ‘Why not?’

Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’

Lou: ‘But the mask prevents the germs from getting out.’

Bud: ‘Yes, but people can still catch your germs.’

Lou: ‘But they’re all vaccinated.’

Bud: ‘Yes, but they can still get sick.’

Lou: ‘But I’m not sick!!’

Bud: ‘You can still get them sick.’

Lou: ‘So then masks don’t work!’

Bud: ‘Masks work quite well.’

Lou: ‘So how in the heck can I get vaccinated people sick if I’m not sick and masks work?’

Bud: ‘Third base.

epoch said...

"Odd that there are more fully vaxxed infected than partially vaxxed, 39 versus 154, you think that number would have been reversed."

Most of the people dying in car crashes wore seat belts.

Davidski said...

The point of having vaccination passports is that people who are vaccinated are much less likely to spread the virus.

And the fact that most people are now vaccinated in some countries, and therefore, more vaccinated people spread the virus, doesn't invalidate this point.

You really have to be a total moron not to understand these things and persist with these useless arguments.

vAsiSTha said...

"For one thing: For about 8000 of positive tested in that table for 40-49 the vaccination status is simply unknown. If they all are unvaccinated, which seems logical, the vaccinated are not the majority anymore."

Why would it be logical? we have no way to know whether those are unvaccinated, partly vaccinated or fully vaccinated

epoch said...

@a

The mistake that most people make is that if some vaccinated people can still infect others it means that on average vaccinated people are as contagious as unvaccinated people.

But that is not the case. There isn't a vaccine in the world that is 100% full proof, yet a known imperfect vaccination such as the one against Polio managed to eradicate it from many parts of the world.

vAsiSTha said...

Lol @a that was a nice one.

Explains my frustration well. Thankfully that coercive shit is not yet here in india, but it will soon be here i guess.

vAsiSTha said...

@epoch

Neither is this disease similar to polio, and neither is the vaccine. So please dont compare.

"The mistake that most people make is that if some vaccinated people can still infect others it means that on average vaccinated people are as contagious as unvaccinated people."

My question to you is that even if I agree (which i dont as of now) that vaccines will reduce infection and spread by say 30%-50%, does it warrant coercively mandating all the population to take the vaccine or lose job/not attend school/ not enter public/private establishments.

It is even more sinister for children whose risk of hospitalization and death is extremely low. and for whom the risk of vaccination is greater than the benefit of vaccination (myocarditis/pericarditis)

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210913/The-rate-of-vaccine-induced-heart-inflammation-in-children.aspx

"However, there have been early reports of adverse events from the vaccines amongst teens and young adults, namely myocarditis occurring in young men in Israel and the USA. In August 2021, the Federal Drug Administration identified a potential 1:5,000 risk of myocarditis developing in teenaged males. The CDC also reported an approximately 95% hospitalization rate for myocarditis-related adverse vaccine events."

Hospitalization risk- 1-10:100000
Death risk~ 0:100000

Myocarditis risk in teenage males due to mRna vaccine- 1:5000
Hospitalization risk due to said myocarditis- 0.95:5000

This vaccination risk is 2-5 times that of covid risk.

Now assuming that you agree with me that under 18s should not be mandated vaccinations, they will keep spreading the virus. So there is no point in blaming the unvaccinated. The virus just has to take its course with the whole population.

a said...

@vAsiSTha

Uttar Pradesh already had great results, using Ivrmectin. Japan saw a whole bunch of some sh1t in their supply of vaxx, and compared the areas of Arica where Ivermectin is taken with areas that don't. To me it comes down to if the the Vax are "leaky" or not "leaky". If using a "leaky" vax during an outbreak do you risk, a mutational hardier variant in the vaxxed, that can be spread to the unvaxed(Geert Vanden Bossche concern in the video below}. Thankfully it has been shown that natural is good.
Study: COVID recovery gave Israelis longer-lasting Delta defense than vaccines.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/study-covid-recovery-gave-israelis-longer-lasting-delta-defense-than-vaccines/
"The variant was 27 times more likely to break through Pfizer protection from January-February and cause symptoms than it was to penetrate natural immunity from the same period "

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP31cfD3YOY&t=1254s
Meeting of the COVID-19 Giants with Geert Vanden Bossche and Robert Malone MD

Davidski said...

There's no such thing as a leaky vaccine.

No vaccine has an efficacy of 100%, and that's not a problem.

Dangerous mutations happen when viruses are allowed to run rampant in large populations.

It's no coincidence that the Delta strain came from India.

epoch said...

"
Neither is this disease similar to polio, and neither is the vaccine. So please dont compare."

Off course one can compare those. R0 and transmissibility are the drivers of that, regardless of virus type or vaccine type.

Furthermore, the myocarditis risk is mostly with Moderna. The Pfizer risk is much lower and absent with females. You have to dig through the literature list to find the PPT that points to that, it's the CDC powerpoint.

vAsiSTha said...

@a

Natural immunity is good but as a large scale strategy it is not an option for countries with low hospital beds to population ratio.

Vaccines certainly prevent hospitalizations and deaths to a large extent and reduce hospital burden.

Wrt ivermectin, all family doctors were presribing it on day1-3 of symptoms even if it was not official policy. My mother got it prescribed on day1 of +ve test in sep 2020 along with vitamins and antibiotic and got better in a day. I am perplexed as to why medical bodies are not allowing it given its excellent safety profile. It will not cause harm even if it's useless.

epoch said...

@a

Ivermectine is a scam. The studies claiming effectivity are either observational and fraught with issues, or retracted due to issues and one even has fraud written all over it.

https://gizmodo.com/ivermectin-research-has-a-big-fraud-problem-scientists-1847730533

epoch said...

@vasishta

Because the vaccine roll out was a government operation so the only possibility that these people are vaccinated while not registered in their vaccination database is if they vaccinated abroad or privately. Neither is very likely anything more than a very small number.

The reason people would be in that database but not vaccinated is that the database also is used for flu jabs. The reason people wouldn't be in the database at all is that they didn't get the flu jab nor the corona jab.

vAsiSTha said...

"Ivermectin is a scam"

In general I dislike all such sweeping statements. Enough studies on it which are not scams and which show promise in early stage,including randomised control trials from Israel.

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