If I was Zelensky wouldn't be putting my hope up about any of this shitshow translating into success of the Counteroffensive™
Better stick to digging up more graves and clearing out old ones for new UAF arrivals. https://archive.is/z9eRQ https://archive.is/OPclg https://t.me/CIG_telegram/32428
Does anyone know some good ancient genetics bloggers? A lot of my old favorites like Razib, BellBeakerBlogger and Davidski got busy and aren't blogging on the subject as much, and several like Dienekes have quit altogether. It'd be great if Matt had a blog.
The so called coup fizzled out. Prigozhin exiled, and Wagner, or what’s left, absorbed into the Russian Army. Oligarchs opposed to Putin fleeing the country. Putin’s hand greatly strengthened.
The Russian leadership says the SMO will continue until the Ukrainian army is completely destroyed, and the Nazi junta in Kiev is eliminated and replaced.
No statement on how much of Ukraine Russia will annex. Russia does not recognize Ukraine as a sovereign.state with a legitimate government, and Russia will not negotiate with the gansters in Kiev.
I have lots of family in both Russia and Ukraine. What a mess. Some of our relatives in Ukraine are wealthy and send their kids to school in England. At least they're safe.
Your initial expectations from the statement, "The battle for Moscow will start in a few hours, then we'll see," have certainly taken an unexpected turn. Now, you're stating, "Not sure if we can say it blew over quickly. It's now clear that Russia is a joke. So there's more comedy on the way." I perceive a hint of disappointment in your tone, am I mistaken?
It's important to remember that actions, such as those of Prigozhin, are often a response to a much larger game. It appears his moves might have been a pre-emptive strike against a potential power play from the Shoigu/Gerasimov faction. And it seems that a tentative balance was restored, courtesy of Lukashenko's timely peacemaking intervention.
When you say, "It's now clear that Russia is a joke," it's crucial to clarify that you're primarily referring to its ruling circles and highest military command. The wider military force has proven resilient, despite its recent challenges. However, the high command's questionable competence was already apparent in 2022.
As for the other side of the equation, if you look beyond the Western narrative, it's not difficult to see that Ukraine's situation is far from perfect. Zelensky may now be a political figure, but let's not forget his roots in television comedy. His recent camo-clad, Kevlar-wearing photoshoots are a stark contrast to his former profession. And it's worth noting his veiled suggestion of indefinitely postponing elections - that doesn't exactly scream democratic ideals.
I'd urge caution against banking on an imminent internal collapse of Russia. The situation is far more complex and resilient than one might think.
Externally, the much-anticipated "Counteroffensive™" has not lived up to expectations. It's doubtful whether this will significantly alter the direction of the conflict. Understanding the Russia-Ukraine conflict demands more than consuming a one-sided narrative - it's a complex picture that requires careful, unbiased examination.
If there's a desire to grasp the complete failure of the UAF's counter-offensive, there are numerous channels on Telegram - both Russian and otherwise - providing graphic visuals of the fate met by UAF units, including those equipped with the much talked about Leopard tanks and Bradley IFVs, and other second-hand Western military equipment, when they tried to push forward across multiple fronts. The situation for Ukraine appears quite dire.
The counteroffensive hasn't really started yet. What you're seeing are shaping and probing operations for the main push.
When it starts you'll know.
Not really sure what your point is about Ukraine's casualties. It's a war. People die in wars.
That's why it's very bad to start wars. Someone should tell Putin and Russia.
But Ukrainians have every right to fight to regain their internationally recognized borders from Russia. No one has the right to tell them to stop just because their casualties are high (albeit much lower than Russia's, as we both know).
And Ukrainians do want to fight. They're not being forced by Zelensky or anyone else. If Zelensky doesn't do what Ukrainians want, he'll be out of a job tomorrow. That's how they roll.
Yes, I'm disappointed that Russia didn't implode on the weekend. I'd really like to see it just piss off and stop bothering its neighbors. But that time will come, very likely after Ukraine's counteroffensive, which is coming soon.
I think Ukraine will do just fine as a new EU and NATO member after the war.
It is a complicated topic but as a person with most of family living in Ukraine i must say that many if not most men are hiding either in some datchas or at home. There is zero euphory for new mobilizations and most people just want to it right now. Many also tried to escape to Europe but got shot or drowned on the way. One thing is being pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian another thing is getting drafted and thrown into the frontline after a few days and getting killed in matter of days like it is the case for many forced conscripts. Ukraine already had something like 12+ mobilization waves (compared to one in Russia) and every new wave is more repressive with many in Kiev and Ivano-Frankivsk now even banned from hospitals if they dont can prove that they are not needed for the frontline. This war caused a total destruction of ukrainian demographics and even if we take Crimea the economic, demographic and politic damage will make the state impossible to survive on its own for decades . It will be a failed state just as dependant from foreign money and help as Afghanistan.
"@Davidski, I wholeheartedly agree that the act of invading another nation is fundamentally wrong. Yet, we must remember that Russia is not the sole player to have overstepped this line in the last century (hint country's name starts with U and ends with A).
As someone with deep-rooted familial connections to both Russia and Ukraine, I observe the conflict from a personal perspective, not as an uninvolved bystander revelling in the misfortunes of either side. Every casualty, be it Russian or Ukrainian, represents a profound loss.
Your statement, "Not really sure what your point is about Ukraine's casualties," prompts me to clarify. While it's true that warfare inevitably entails loss, we must evaluate the costs and outcomes. For several weeks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been engaged in "probing" missions, with their much-anticipated counter-offensive still yet to materialize in a significant way. This stalemate scenario implies that the losses suffered thus far might ultimately prove futile.
The notion of comparing body counts or kill ratios to ascertain who's "winning" a war is not only insensitive but also misleading. The unfolding situation in Ukraine isn't so linear; both sides suffer, and the ramifications reach far beyond mere numbers. The recent conscription in Ukraine, for example, reminiscent of Germany's desperate Volkssturm in 1945, indicates a country pressed to its limits.
https://imgur.com/a/8Vuc3nv
It's critical to distinguish between a populace's willingness to fight and the necessity forced upon them. Reports suggest forced conscriptions and men being dragged off the streets into service - this isn't the picture of a nation raring to go into a meat grinder.
Your disappointment over Russia not collapsing over the weekend and your predictions about its imminent downfall post-Ukraine's counteroffensive seem premature. Making bold forecasts in volatile situations can often backfire.
As for Ukraine's future prospects as a member of EU and NATO, let's take a pragmatic view. The war has caused a significant population drain, with many choosing to seek refuge in safer territories, and it's uncertain how many will return post-conflict. Moreover, a significant portion of Ukraine's populace now resides in Russia-controlled regions. As things stand, Ukraine's population is around 28-34 million, a steep decline from 50 million. A recovery to its former stature appears challenging, to say the least.
While we may agree that the invasion was a misguided decision, it's equally important to recognize that further escalating the conflict by supplying more arms is not beneficial for the average Ukrainian, especially those facing the immediate impacts of war. It's all too easy to advocate for continued warfare from the comfort of a distant location, far removed from the realities on the ground.
"The Russian leadership says the SMO will continue until the Ukrainian army is completely destroyed, and the Nazi junta in Kiev is eliminated and replaced."
Yes, that's what they say.
Although Dmitry Peskov recently claimed that one goal of the so called SMO has been met: The demilitarization of Ukraine. Because now, he claimed, Ukrainians are only fighting with material provided by the west. And so, he added, the SMO has turned into a war with the collective west. (In fact that's not really true, western material still constitutes only a fraction of the UAF.)
And calling a democratically elected government a "junta" is not really appropriate. Even Zelensky's predecessor Poroshenko was democratically elected, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_presidential_election That's something the Russian propagandists constantly conceal. So even if the Maidan revolution is described as a coup, the pro-western governments that followed were not illegal juntas, but democratically legitimized.
And what regards its alleged Nazism, you can learn about the ideology of Zelensky's party here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Servant_of_the_People
Sounds very far from the NSDAP's programme: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Socialist_Program
The Ukrainian budget is now almost entirely financed by the west with the military help even surpassing the Russian military budget. The country has lost 1/4 of its population with a pre-war birthrate of 1.3 (definitely much lower right now because many young females left and most will not come back). Also much of private business collapsed and there is no functioning economy in the country anymore (a lot of factories were closed/destroyed with workers forced to be conscripted). The country (poorest in Europe after Moldavia) already had massive economic and demographic degradation before the war with a gigantic brain drain (there was no official census for 20 years so the population was likely already around 35 million before the war). I really dont see a golden future for Ukraine no matter how the war ends every day without peace just deepens the economic, demographic and social abyss.
You only criticize the Ukrainians for defending their country against a foreign threat and emphasize that it will be a failed state (loss of population, loss of economic resources etc), it seems that you want the Ukrainians to stop fighting, and give up their homeland to the Russians. Well, stick with your friend Putin, he is a megalomaniac and a clown, if the Ukrainians (and the Westerners) surrender, then the Baltic countries, Moldova, Finland and the Poles will fall.
Eastern Europeans have learned from the disaster of the Cold War and from being subjugated to the Russians. Only when the Russians have a real democracy will we achieve peace in Europe, meanwhile, the longer the war lasts the greater the ridicule of Putin and his communist friends will be. Putin is a threat to global peace and deserves to end his days in a cold Siberian prison.
We have 200,000 Ukrainians in Spain and they are all eager to return to rebuild their country, we will help them because they deserve it, they just want to be free. Public opinion in the European Union overwhelmingly supports the Ukrainian cause, they are not alone, meanwhile even super-millionaire Russians coming to the beaches of Andalusia are treated as criminals.
Pd- What the hell is wrong with the Slavs, they can't stand each other, at least we westerners have stopped hating each other (I'm talking about Europe, the USA is another thing).
"I'm really looking forward to Putin's final "goodwill gesture" later this year, when he finally realizes he has to get the hell out of Ukraine."
This is a naive option that will never come true. There is actually only one way out of this situation, but I will talk about it at the end. There are two more tactical options for delaying time, rather than solving the problem. Continue hostilities for years or negotiate with Putin based on the existing status quo. Both of these options are possible, but strategically meaningless. The only possible third option is a final solution to the problem, however, for its implementation now there are neither conditions nor an appropriate level of elites either in Russia or in Ukraine, in Europe or in the USA. It is necessary to formulate, declare and implement an agenda designed for the non-aggressive part of society. You can think about options for such an agenda. I would suggest the creation on the basis of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus of a kind of Community pre-European Union under the coordinating role of the EU. Of course, in Ukraine, this will lead to the loss of support for the Zelensky regime by the most motivated part of society - the nationalists. However, in Russia this will allow part of Russian society to oppose the Putin regime without being accused of treason. As long as the agenda is formulated as a victory for one of the parties on the battlefield, the leaders of public opinion will be radicals from the slogans of war to a victorious end. However, it will still have to be negotiated sooner or later, better sooner than later.
@Gaska, What are you on about buddy... Are we off our meds, or merely experimenting with a new strain of cognitive dissonance?
Your claim that CM (or me, whatever "the Putin bots) are criticizing Ukrainians for defending their country is a classic case of the strawman fallacy. My position is, and remains, a critique of the viability of prolonged conflict in Ukraine. It's a matter of strategic evaluation, not personal sentiment. Do try to keep up.
My critique of the Ukrainian situation does not stem from some nefarious allegiance to Putin, but rather a sober acknowledgment of the realities on the ground.
Your postulated solution, that 'real democracy' in Russia would bring peace to Europe, is yet another logical fallacy, this time a non sequitur. While it is undeniably beneficial to have a democratic regime, it doesn't necessarily equate to regional peace.
Your deluded fantasies of Ukrainians in Spain rushing to rebuild their war-torn homeland are touching, but sadly as grounded in reality as a unicorn. It requires more than wishful thinking to rebuild a nation, something Spain could take notes on, given its current predicament.
Now let's talk about Spain for a moment, that's meant to help Ukraine rebuild according to you. The country where youth unemployment is as high as the temperatures, where economic growth moves at the pace of a lazy siesta, and where separatist movements threaten the unity of the country more than a matador threatens a bull. But of course, you’d prefer to pretend those issues don’t exist while weaving fantastical fairy tales about a bright plink future for Ukraine... lol
During my stay in Ireland, the inescapable irony was the sight of university-educated Spaniards serving drinks and cleaning hostels. Now that's what I call optimizing the use of a degree. Perhaps they should add ‘Expert in Irish Whiskeys’ to their CVs?
Your statement on EU public opinion is so laughably reductionist, it barely merits a response. Public opinion isn't a monolithic entity, no matter how convenient it would be for your frail argument if it were.
I mean, Spanish Civil War, anyone? How about Catalan and Basque separatism? Or are we pretending those aren’t real issues?
As a final note, I want to emphasize that my comments, which might come off as harsh to some, are nothing more than close observations of the realities on the ground. I have voiced zero support for Putin and, indeed, have openly condemned the invasion as morally wrong in previous posts.
The fact that I consider the Russian regime to be a kleptocracy does not, however, turn a blind eye to the array of problems facing Ukraine, nor does it magically transform it into a model democracy.
It is absolutely appalling to want to stop the supply of arms to Ukraine, which actually will make it an easy prey for such a mafia state as Russia is now. I know perfectly well what this means. The United Nations (UN) imposed an arms embargo in the conflict in Yugoslavia. This did not affect the Serbian forces supported by the JNA because they had the JNA arsenal at their disposal. And we in Croatia started arming ourselves in the only possible way by smuggling weapons across international borders because our survival was at stake. Our population is less than 4 million and we survived. There's no way Ukraine won't survive with such a big country and a population 10x ours and the entire western world on their side. When the war stops, Ukraine will blossom.
And Russia will only degrade with the continuation of this war. It is a mafia state and internal wars will start sooner or later. That country will turn into another Afghanistan or become a Chinese colony if you prefer.
The Tsar made a big mistake by invading Ukraine. Instead of strengthening and enlarging the empire, this large morsel began to destroy it from within. It better stop now or Russia will collapse.
While it is theoretically possible for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, the situation is far more intricate than simply cutting losses. The ongoing conflict has led to complex political, economic, and social ramifications that cannot be easily undone.
Withdrawal would have implications for the territories that came under Russian control, such as Crimea and the self-proclaimed republics.
Moreover, the costs incurred thus far, including the loss of human lives and financial resources, make a hasty withdrawal less straightforward.
The conflict has entangled both countries and created a multitude of challenges that need to be addressed.
"If you don't believe me, then fine. Wait and see what happens."
A deflection tactic rather than an actual argument.
By the way, I can show you the resolution of a political force that can carry out the following rebellion:
ANGRY PATRIOT CLUB #KRPJune 26, 2023 Political Resolution of the Victory Veche Conference I. The Club of Angry Patriots represents the interests of the patriotic Russian society, which is being born in the crucible of the new Patriotic War. In our activities, we are guided by two fundamental principles: 1. The national interests of the Russian people and other indigenous peoples of Russia, as well as the interests of the Russian world within its historical borders; 2. Ideals of social justice. II. We are ready to cooperate with everyone who wishes Russia victory and prosperity. III. The PKK was created at a turning point, when the course of events presented Russia with an extremely difficult, but inevitable historical task - the complete elimination of the Western geopolitical project "Ukraine". For more than 100 years, this artificial formation has been parasitizing on our lands, poisoning the minds of tens of millions of Russian people, turning them into aggressive Russophobes. The result of this was the transformation of the southwestern Russian lands into a source of constant wars, strife, national and religious hatred. IV. We are clearly aware that Ukraine will never be pro-Russian, neutral or peaceful. It can only be aggressively Russophobic and misanthropic in its essence. By preserving Ukraine in any form, we are creating a permanent source of threat to the country's strategic security, people and future generations. V. The "demilitarization", "denazification", and even the inclusion of several regions into the Russian Federation announced by the authorities of the Russian Federation do not solve the main strategic task - the collection of Russian lands, the reunification of the triune Russian people divided by the political storms of the 20th century and ensuring the security of the state. This task will be solved only in one case - the Russian flag must be raised in the mother of Russian cities, Kyiv. And nothing else. VI. Having failed the 2022 campaign and switched to strategic defense, the Russian military-political leadership has been trying in vain for a year and a half to get out of the war through "peace talks", "goodwill steps" and "grain deals" that are treacherous for the country, the state and the army. Thus, it only demonstrates to the enemy its weakness, lack of understanding of the world agenda, inability and unwillingness to influence current geopolitical processes, and readiness to play by someone else's rules. That is why the enemy over and over again rejects all the proposals of Moscow. VII. At the same time, those whose assets, capital and political loyalty are in the West remain in power and big business in Russia. They continue to sabotage, express their readiness for direct collusion with the enemy at the expense of another collapse of Russia according to the scenario of February 1917 or December 1991. And as long as the Russian military-political leadership retains these cadres, we cannot hope either to save the country or to win the war.
I think it could have been a staging by Prigozhin, which is typical for a "warlord" to equip his troops even better or to show who is actually in charge in Russia. He already knows such extortionist tactics from his time as a criminal in the mafia. And Russia will definitely not implode as quickly as you think, despite some internal unrest in some republics, the senior partner China will also be careful. NATO does not need to hope too early for a quick end to the war and remember, Russia is one nuclear power ! Unfortunately, the war will continue and as an example of a failed coup attempt / or rather resistance, we know of July 20, 1944, but you can't really compare that because Staufenberg was a man with conscience and Prigoschin is an unscrupulous gangster / warlord, who is more about one's own benefit and dislike/hatred of Shoigu.
It will be a failed state just as dependant from foreign money and help as Afghanistan.
Idiotic comparison."
What comparisons are such and people. You're arguing with Beavis and Butthead's sons. Surprisingly they didn't mention about "conscripted 16-17 aged" :D It's funny, they declare some kind of ties with Ukraine, and at the same time they compare Ukrainians with Afghans, they saw parallels between Ukraine and WWII Germany :D They're broadcasting typical Russian narratives. Exaggerating the scale of some actions and events. One mobilization in Russia per 300,000 can be compared with 12 "waves" of mobilization in Ukraine. But for an already not very good picture, they didn’t mention mobilization in the DPR, LPR, recruitment to Wagner, BARS volunteer battalions (about 85 bat of 400 men each). Well, indeed, not everyone wants to fight in Ukraine, especially pro-Russian residents. Very often, Hungarians and Gypsies are caught on the border with Europe. However, in Ukraine there were no such protests against mobilization as were in Russia, especially in Dagestan. About a million men left Russia in a couple of days from mobilization (to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan). As for the demographic collapse. Then, according to Rosstat, from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, there were almost two million fewer pensioners in Russia!! The divorce rate is 65%. Russia is among the leaders in abortions. There is a strong depopulation. On this birthrate picture from the bottom, we see not that big distinction from Russia's side. And considering the high birthrate among the peoples of the Caucasus, some native Siberians and newly minted citizens from Central Asia, the prospects for Russians are worse than for Ukrainians. https://sun6-20.userapi.com/impg/5BQ2hd_ryDxgKtpk-PBZoD-97I1A_EH6tp8J2A/hv2pXuLevR4.jpg?size=1261x810&quality=95&sign=43d191647dd823eebedff51c5a405abf&c_uniq_tag=9IOcJg2g38F6kdfFhcN-MJwGQXqwZXzU4ahxv7LpZ8c&type=album
Calm yourself down, you are overreacting and maybe you are the one who needs to take some meds or better a shot of vodka to forget your sorrows
1-You have taken the hint too soon, reread Sykes' comment talking about the Nazi regime and the gansgters in Kiev. Only a Kremlin agent can say such things.
2-Since you have deep Russian and Ukrainian roots I understand why you are so concerned about the situation, no wonder, hundreds of thousands of people have died or have had to leave their country to flee the war.
3-You say you don't agree with the invasion, although you seem to justify it because “remember that Russia is not the sole player to have overstepped this line in the last century (hint country's name starts with U and ends with A)” You think that if the US invades a country that gives the Russians the right to invade Afghanistan, Syria, Chechnya, Georgia, or Ukraine. Is that what you are trying to say?
4-Speak plainly, who do you think is to blame for the hundreds of thousands killed in the war-Putin? Zelensky?, Ukrainians, Biden, the European Union?, the Westerners for militarily supporting Ukraine?
5-You seem to be wishing for the counter-offensive to fail, what do you think the Ukrainians should do, surrender?, stop fighting?, give up the territories claimed by the Russians?
Dude try to accept that Russia and Putin have violated all UN resolutions by attacking a country with previously established borders, that the Kremlin megalomaniac deserves to be tried for war crimes for attacking the civilian population and that the future of Russia is in the hands of a psychopath who is going to bring ruin to his country. I'm sure your Ukrainian side will thank you for it.
1-Democracy in Russia will bring peace to Europe, that is what everyone hopes and desires. Don't you think it would be good if the Russian people could enjoy for the first time in their history the freedom that first the Czars and then the Communists have stolen from them. If Putin remains in power, they will never be free, they will continue to be afraid of the KGB.
2-I have in my house a Ukrainian mother with two children, she has found a job but wants to return to Mariupol to help rebuild her country. What do you think is wrong?, do you think we should not help them?, No one says it is not difficult to rebuild the nation, but they have the right to try. Do you think they should not go back?, do you think they deserve it for being Nazis and supporters of Zelensky's regime? What do we do with our 200,000 refugees, send them to Siberia?
3-I repeat, public opinion in the European Union is overwhelmingly in favor of the Ukrainian cause, the proof is that more than 5 million refugees have been taken in record time. Everyone appreciates Zelensky's firmness and determination to join the European Union and NATO.
4- You are a weasel, no one is insulting the Slavs, everyone is just surprised at the problems they have with each other. We westerners had problems too, but we have long since turned the page. Maybe it's time for the Slavs to end the wars in Europe. Why do you think that some Slavic countries have joined or want to join the European Union?
Regarding the topics about Spain (unemployment, lazy siesta, economic growth, Civil War, separatism) I was surprised by such a violent reaction, in my opinion your words only show that you hate Spain. It's your problem, I'm not going to waste a minute of my time talking about my country with a bitter ignorant, we are here to talk about the Kremlin psychopath and those who defend him
Pd1-It had been a long time since I had seen an asshole making fun of some students for working abroad and helping their parents pay for university. Didn't you say that we were lazy?
Pd2-Maybe in Russia all the students are millionaires, or maybe Putin doesn't allow them to work as waiters, maybe they prefer to go to war and die so that Putin can finally believe that he is Catherine the Great
It's truly disappointing that Russian users mainly focus on Zelensky, blaming him for the deaths of Ukrainians in the war, demanding concessions, or debating whether Ukraine is a democratic or failed state. Instead, it would be more decent if the Russian masses prioritized pressuring their own leadership to get the Russian army the f**k out of Ukraine, to at least pre-2022 borders.
The elephant in the room is that people are dying because of the country that invaded them, first and foremost. And if the Ukrainian people were truly against fighting in the war, they would have already removed Zelensky from power, or at least they wouldn't be giving the Russians a hard time even 1 year and a half later.
Yeah, Zelensky was a comedian, but the real clown here is called Vladimir Putin, and his senseless war is proof of that (imagine thinking your own people are naive or stupid enough to believe that Ukraine is led by a drug addict Satanist Nazi Jew lol). If Zelensky had surrendered in 2022 you would have called him a coward, but at the same time if he doesn't surrender he is a criminal causing the death of his own citizens in the war (a war, however, that RUSSIA has caused).
I agree that it is wrong to blame the entire Russian population for the actions of its leadership, but it must be said that the vast majority of the Russian people support this war or at best are indifferent to it. The tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians are also a consequence of the Russian people's passivity toward their government. You are the one who invaded, and as you invaded for no good reason you must leave. Period. I am sorry but the fact that this may have consequences in Russia is not a valid excuse. It is the minimum price you have to pay.
Nothing provokes Russia more than weakness. Making concessions is absolutely wrong because it would send them the message that they can do whatever they want and get away with it, and this would have consequences on other countries as it would legitimize them to commit further crimes elsewhere.
I was in the region 2017. I rocked up to Odessa airport without a visa, thinking Australians coming via EU don't need one. They made me sweat but let me in. Had a good 2 days. Then a young Ukrainian lad drove me to Moldova across military borders. Turns out both our grandfathers were partisans Good adventure
Good post. This is a point that I wanted to make myself.
Yeah, Zelensky was a comedian, but the real clown here is called Vladimir Putin, and his senseless war is proof of that (imagine thinking your own people are naive or stupid enough to believe that Ukraine is led by a drug addict Satanist Nazi Jew lol). If Zelensky had surrendered in 2022 you would have called him a coward, but at the same time if he doesn't surrender he is a criminal causing the death of his own citizens in the war (a war, however, that RUSSIA has caused).
@Spanked; thanks for the mention. At this point it seems like there are a couple root issues. Firstly, ancient dna publications are moving at a slower pace and talking about things at conferences years before publishing, rather than using pre-prints. Secondly, with much bigger data, it's harder for people to wring quick and interesting insights out of it, without large amounts of computation (things like using imputatation to reconstruct haplotypes, or systematically testing qpGraphs). So there's just not much to talk about - if I had a blog (which probably would've been a good idea in the past but only to keep track of what I'd thought about things), then would've found not much to say on it.
(Specifically on Razib Kan's output, he seems to have become more embittered about having open discussions with people on the net as he feels he's been mistreated in academia, by the press and by online trolls. So he's doing more for pay articles that integrate well-known population genetics findings that are almost copy-pasted from the paers with his knowledge of history, and has refocused on right wing politics (which he does in closed groups as far as I can tell from his social media) and his family. There's an audience for that, but not much cop for population genetics nerds (we've read the papers already).)
...
As for Ukraine I think: This war will end up in some form of not total conclusive victory. Ukraine will become an agricultural and resource exporter to EU that does have a smaller population. However also Ukrainian people will be better off from opportunities abroad and that EU will help lower corruption and increase military defence. I don't see it becoming a war-torn place of endemic low level tribalism of theocracy like Afghanistan at all, or ethnic "Balkanization", that seems extremely unlikely (largely ethnically homogenous, no substantial religious or ideological fault lines, no cousin-marriage clans, Russian language faultlines as an issue of minority rights seem to have been discredited by the actions of the Russian state). Even if the war ends incompletely (as in incomplete explusion of the Russian state or proxy states from the territory of Ukraine), seems likely (70-80% ish) to be a success in: 1) Frustrating Putin's notion of uniting all the peoples of the Kievan Rus under one union, 2) make it clear to Russians that any notions of having a military and cultural sphere that is separate from China and the EU (and notions of greatness and destiny and so on) are implausible and to render it implausible for Putin to maintain popularity by promising such to the Russian people, 3) get Russia back to being an exporter of resources, technical human capital and consumption to China and Europe (where the advanced goods and services will actually be made), 4) disabuse persons in the West of the notion that being tough, brutal and traditional is what makes an army strong rather than discipline, organisation, technology, resources and patriotism (turns out that mercenary armies of gangster criminals who fight for gold and the opportunity to rape and torture are not the most reliable and loyal! who knew? maybe the baddest, toughest, nastiest b***ards aren't actually the best soldiers, or even much good at all...), 5) significantly remilitarize Europe and rebuild its energy independence.
I'm not a geopolitical or economic analyst so maybe this contains some "vibes" and secondhand basic news, and it won't be like that. YMMV.
You have to understand a few lines. Firstly, that Russia, with its aggression and atrocities, has created a situation for Ukraine with no way out but war. After the attack, Putin announced that the war would not end; he announced the necessity of eliminating national tendencies and the complete liquidation of Ukraine's independence, and simply purging Ukraine of national human and mental elements. Do you know what that means? Total and ruthless Russification, as we already know from history. The liquidation of human elements that think differently, resistant, and especially "stained" by their involvement in the current defense of the country. Apart from shooting, I see prisons for the less committed, lifelong deportations to Vorkuta, Kolyma and the swamps of the Siberian taiga, and a lot of resettlements!!. Don't you understand why the vast majority of the world is on the side of Ukraine and bears the cost of defending it, without even hoping for reciprocity?
Secondly, imperial aggression is in Russia's and most Russians' blood. Ukraine was supposed to be just a small episode of this drug rush. Putin spelled it out as his plan: to reclaim Stalin's empire. The rest was described by advisers to Putin: Dugin and Yuriev and others through repeated statements and publications. It has already been written what is to happen to Poland and the Baltic states... It has been written what is to happen to the entire EU Europe... Why, for what? What nations did the greedy tsarist and post-tsarist imperialim make happy? How is the standard of living How about the health of nations, how about the length of life, especially for men? (Don't blame alcohol alone; it's a symptom of the disaster rather than the cause!).
There's a tonne of data although only ~ 30% of its capacity has been utilised. We know the big picture, but even that sometimes needs some modifications. For example, putting aside all the discussion of steppe origins which most like to focus on, there are questions like - how did the Italics arrive ? How did Celtic form ? Where did Kura-Araxes form ? What is "TRB", how does it related to Early Farmers and later GAC ? etc This and incremental new data represents years of analysis to be done. That front is at least positive
yes Dugin is a sick man and he wants a Greater Russia and Poland met as a catholic country doesn't exist at all and Germany only as a whore of Russia ... just some of his perfidious statements, but the Ukrainians are not children of sadness either, I'm just saying the massacre in Volhynia and East Galicia as if you should always see two sides of the coin (I always see many things objectively), I can only say one thing, I hope the war will end soon. and the statement that the Russians have the Imperial in their blood is a bit weak, it is due to the wrong policy and also to external political influences and people have always had an urge to expand!
You write that my statement that the Russians have an imperialist spirit in their blood is "a little weak".
Well, I will give such experiences from participation in a certain Russian forum of genetic genealogy, probably many participated in it. This forum served (probably by design) almost only the R1a haplogroup. Initially, I felt good there, because there was a spirit of brotherhood and kindness (I did not know its background at the time). Once, a discussion about Stalin, his great intelligence, great decisions, etc., etc., developed there, led by a professor we know. I replied: “Stalin was rather stupid, because if he had been thinking and wise, he would not have committed such genocide by murdering the Polish military, police and civilian intelligentsia in Katyn in 1940 y, as if on the eve of the expected trial with the Germans. After all, it was possible to use these tens of thousands of well-prepared people to organize the troops fighting in Germany. - Poland deserved the Katyn punishment! Stalim was right and justified in punishing Poland, because Poles should see what the laws of the imperial state are, that they should be subordinate to and obey their elder brother, the professor replied. _ Yes? I asked, and who gave Russia any imperial rights over Poland? What codes assign such rights to imperial countries?... Etc...etc... From then on, the discussion became less and less cordial… Finally, the administrator of the portal, seeing the atmosphere deteriorating, decided to announce and accelerate the implementation of his hidden plan before it is too late.
So he announced a proposal for our joint appeal, something like this: “- We are representatives of the genetic haplogroup R1a, one bloodline... widely dispersed in many European countries. But we have been hurt, because we have been divided by hostile state borders, which makes it difficult for us to lead family life in friendship and harmony.... - So we ask the Supreme Council of the Russian Federation to take a decision on the liquidation of these borders, artificially and against human laws tearing us apart our line ... - Our signatures... ……………………………… The administrator asked for signatures. After a few days he declared: - Since no one has signed this petition, the case is closed. …………………………. Soon after, it turned out that our huge and famous portal of genetic genealogy was closed; for he became a useless servant of the imperialization of genetic families, calculated on the model of the idea of the old tsarist Pan-Slavism. There is no trace of this forum today. …… To this day I cannot understand why there were no signatures (maybe someone remembers differently). After all, this spontaneous Russian imperialism was visible on many sides and topics of discussion on this forum. It must have been a coincidence, because the political votes in Russia, the results of international polls, and participation in the aggression against Ukraine unequivocally reveal in Russia people confirmation and appreciation for the Russian imperialism.
This was is horrible for Europe. Industries all over Germany & Sweden have closed down due to the sanctions, and Europe has become even more of a bannana republic to USA & EU federalists & globalists like Klaus Schwab
Russia will probably decline even further, and become more dependent on China & the Gulf States.
Probably all part of the pre-amble to a massive confrontation between USA/ NATO & China.
Historically, this looks like unresolved tensions from the Polish-Lithuanian vs Moscovy command for regional control also playing out, failed nation-building, and problems of post War territorial borders. In the 90s (when the Yugo wars were heating up), there were people in Ukraine warning of future possible conflict due to the unresolved of the question of Russian people in Ukraine & their status.
speaking of Ukraine, it would be very interesting to see what ~ 18th century Cossaks of the Hetmanate look lik genetically. Apaprently they were Orthodox East Slavs fleeing the Grand Duchy toward the steppe + other renegades +/- Turkic admixture ?
yes, such forums are really not in order and disgusting, Stalin was only afraid of the Polish intelligentsia if there was an uprising in occupied eastern Poland, which would certainly be the case! Nationalists with a dash of racism are present everywhere, regardless of ethnic group, and are also present, for example, among Germans, Russians, Poles, Ukrainians... It depends on the character of a person, such forums can be found all over the world. There is also a healthy national pride without prejudice against others, I give an example about my Polish grandfather who was a proud Pole and served with the Uhlans but got along with many ethnic groups and also helped Jews during the German occupation in Kraków and from 1944-45 in Germany had been on forced labor and met a great Bavarian family and when he returned to Poland in 1945 he also helped the Germans to escape and even made friends with Russian soldiers who were enthusiastic about watches because some came from areas of the Soviet Union and some of them didn't knew. later he married my German grandmother (a few Germans stayed). He wanted a sovereign Poland but had no problems with other ethnic groups and at the end of the 70s he came to Germany but only because of my grandmother, because he loved his homeland and before his death in 1989 he said that the wall would fall faster than one thinks and 6 months later the time had come and he also said that the world no longer had any orderly structures afterwards and that open borders are not always an advantage either, the balance of powers also came to an end with that. He had had a really hard life, wanted to study art in Kraków but in the Generalgouvernement it was a harbinger for the Poles and during the German occupation he had to be careful all the time, as he once told me he had forgotten his ID card and you could quickly mistake him for being a Jew, too because of his thick black hair ( at that time there was no DNA and phenotypic one was often stamped) and during the time of the People's Republic of Poland from 1947 his company was often closed by communists ( own company as master painter ) when there were political upheavals or more profit was made.
What I actually want to say it has nothing to do with the origin but with the character of a person or with wrong politics.
The level of autonomy and independence enjoyed by countries like Poland and Hungary, which are part of both NATO and the EU, is something you can only dream of under a regime tied to Russia like Belarus. This doesn't mean that there aren't power dynamics at play, but considering all of them indiscriminately as puppet countries of the USA is clearly an exaggeration. Klaus Schwab is just a meme, let him eat ze bugs in peace.
As for China, they're not foolish enough to engage in a war with the USA over Taiwan. It would have disastrous effects on the economies of both countries, not to mention that the most productive regions of China are located near the island. When you hear Xi Jinping talking about bringing Taiwan back home, you're primarily hearing a speech meant for domestic "propaganda" purposes, aiming to present China as a powerful nation on par with the USA in the eyes of its citizens. Xi wants China to be considered a great power of equal dignity to the USA in the eyes of the world. Xi may be a dictator, but he's not as foolish as Putin.
"While it is theoretically possible for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, the situation is far more intricate than simply cutting losses. "
Russia withdrew from around Kyev, around Kharkov and around Kherson. They are fortifying the entry to Crimea. You'll be surprised where it is theoretically possible they might withdraw to next time.
The facts are clear over here in the free world, so there's no need to be stuck in any information bubbles, especially if you're American.
Russia invaded Ukraine to rob it blind, because there wasn't much left to steal at home. See that's what Russia did in the Donbass over the last decade. Even Russian patriots like Igor Girkin and Yevgeny Prigozhin admit this openly.
Russia's next targets were the Baltic states, and if that worked out, Poland.
So we're lucky that Ukraine has been courageous and organized enough to stop Russia, because otherwise there would be a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
And considering how courageous and organized Ukraine has been, calling it a failed state and a future European version of Afghanistan is quite bizarre.
@Davidski said: „Russia invaded Ukraine to rob it blind, because there wasn't much left to steal at home /…/ Russia's next targets were the Baltic states, and if that worked out, Poland. So we're lucky that Ukraine has been courageous and organized enough to stop Russia /…/”
Poland was so brave and organized in 1920, when the Russian general Tukhachevsky with his troops even approached Warsaw with the slogan: Over the corpses of Poland - to the world revolution. In the last decades, Poland, deceived by Russia and the powers that our security is guaranteed and that there are no more aggressors, unfortunately disarmed itself (just like EU Europe). According to Yuriev, in the book "Russia as it should be" (i.e. in 2053), a book that Putin (as stated in a journalistic interview) reads "to the pillow", Poland was to be attacked and swallowed by Russia as the first (already 2019 .), and after Poland, it's time for the Balts and Ukraine. But Ukraine, fortunately for us, confused these plans of Russia…. …… Why am I so interested in this topic? See an old English-Russian movie: "Lost in Siberia" (in several languages). It is a fictional film, but based on a fact. The hero of the story is a vicariously distinguished archaeologist, who was reported by local Russian informers as a spy for the shah of Iran. He was sentenced to death, but temporarily sent to hard labor in Siberia. The film scares us with descriptions of the actions of stupid bureaucrats, terrible treatment of prisoners at work and in transport, and ends with Moscow revealing that it was a mistake, because an innocent and distinguished archaeologist was sentenced. The authorities want to save him as soon as possible (as usual in Russia "good tsarist power, but only bad officials"), but in Kolyma everything is already prepared to carry out the sentence ... so it cannot be changed. Left in shackles in the 30-degree frost, N. turns into an ice effigy, and the guard shoots him with bullets. Yes movie.
And the truth is this. After the Russian army entered Poland in September 1939, the two NN brothers from my distant family were abducted by the Russians. One of them escaped, reached England and organized a long-lasting search for his brother, possibly missing somewhere in Siberia. The English helped, and the idea for the film was born against this background.
When I found out about everything a dozen or so years ago, I started searching the Russian Internet for the unique Polish surname of this missing man. I found a nice schoolgirl in a marshy area near Novosibirsk; her name has become famous on the Internet, because she won some supra-regional painting competition. And her grandfather was found, the son of that "lost in Siberia", still living in the harsh terrain of tajga under the famous Bracka Dam on the Siberian Angara River. There was a lot of tears and emotions!
"Have you ever considered it might be you that's in a CIA/MI6 information bubble?"
Most assessments done on the internet are entirely independent, and try to make their case by using *Russian* sources. If you do that, an overall image emerges that does not massively differ from what Western MSM presents.
Daviski, stop being so prim about Ukraine's "internationally recognized borders", as if Ukraine had been traditionally sovereign. Russia showed unprecedented magnanimity in letting every "republic" detach themselves from the Soviet Union, all of which had been part of Imperial Russia prior to that.
Who else watches more than half their population, their western flank,and more than a million square miles just go away?
The arrangement was okay—and Putin tolerated it—if Russians left behind the lines in swollen Ukraine and Latvia were respected by their newfound countrymen.
Besides, would you like continental Europe to again recognize Poland's "internationally recognized borders" of 1795-1918? They were revised only by dint of outside tyrants Wilson, Clemençeau and Lloyd-George.
Spy said.... Russia showed unprecedented magnanimity in letting every "republic" detach themselves from the Soviet Union, all of which had been part of Imperial Russia prior to that.
What is an empire? Is the Empire a subject of international law? Is an empire allowing its neighbors to be independent the fruit of "imperial magnanimity"? Did the genocidal murder of thousands of Poles in Katyn result from the laws of the imaginary power of the empire over the Polish state conquered by the German-Russians?
True or false, all of this is of very little relevance. Have you ever heard of the Budapest Memorandum? The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated in 1994, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and addressed the issue of nuclear weapons present in Ukraine following the collapse of the Soviet bloc. Under the agreement, Ukraine agreed to relinquish its inherited nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union, which included intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads. In exchange for giving up nuclear weapons, the other signatory countries of the memorandum (the United States, RUSSIA, United Kingdom, France, and China) provided assurances to Ukraine regarding its security and emphasized their commitment to RESPECTING UKRAINE'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY AND INDEPENDENCE.
Yes, I think those reports are correct. So unfortunately there's a decent chance that, once the Ukrainian army breaks through Russian defenses in the region, Russia will sabotage the nuclear plant.
It's even funnier when we recall that one of Russia's primary goals in this war was to demilitarize Ukraine.
Now Ukraine probably has the best army in Europe, with around 40K or more highly motivated volunteers spearheading its counteroffensive.
And no, nobody claimed that the Budapest Memorandum was null and void, because there were no grounds for such a claim. Russia just ignored it, like they ignore any international agreements and laws that don't suit them at any given moment.
It is fantastic news, because it means Ukraine can defend itself from Russia, which also means that Russia doesn't have the resources for a direct confrontation with NATO.
Security comes with a big price tag.
But if Ukraine was as well armed back in 2021 as it is today Russia wouldn't dare invade it. That would've been a bargain considering the costs of this war.
@Rob “@ Davidski Let's examine the fact so far; Who destroyed the oil pipeline, Who destroywed the Damn off Crimea, creating an evironmental catastrophe ? The only dirty people here so far have been the CIA, Zelenski & his cousins over in USA (Nuland & the like) Whatever was agreed upon in 1994 becomes null & void if the alleged ''Ukraine government'' is sold out to USA & handed over the Black Sea to NATO. That's clearly a breach of 'cordial understanding' They've now crucified their own people. Sound like a royal bunch of scum bags, IMO There is no Ukrainain army anymore, Its just English, German, Croatian & Polish merceneries getting thieir ass blown up @ John Smith Yes I know the Chinese are sensible. I can’t say the same about Usa. Evangelical -Zionists and morally bankrupt. They can’t accept the fact that they’re on the decline, although they were never great in the first place, merely parasitically profiteering and manipulating the petrodollar. Now they’re on the way out, but they believe that Jesus is gonna Land in Utah again & the four Horsemen will save them.”
I completely agree with you, and much more I’d have to say, but that wouldn’t pass the Dave’s gates. When I was a teacher of History I was against URSS and Katyn always was an argument of my lessons, but I would speak now about the illusion of Poles who are open to the Ukrainian profugees but think to keep out the others. Their “Europe” will destroy them too.
“Nice shilling there. Here's a ruble. Buy yourself something nice”.
In Italian we say to look at the finger and not at the moon beyond! You speak of one shilling or one ruble, but Zelens’kij sold the moon (14 million hectares) to BlackRock and other similiar “American” funds
The EU went out of its way to help and appease Russia.
Russia made billions, maybe trillions, from this relationship as the biggest exporter of gas and oil to the EU.
On the other hand, Ukraine was told to put up and shut up. No one wanted to give or even sell any serious weapons to Ukraine before the invasion.
And yet Russia managed to screw this up, because they wanted some land back even though Russia is already the largest country on the planet and practically had Crimea anyway.
NATO wasn't a threat to Russia. It was actually a guarantee that Russia wouldn't do anything stupid and hurt itself.
If Ukraine had been in NATO, Russia wouldn't have attacked it and instead still getting trillions from the EU.
Don't care if either country disappears from the map, however I looked up some stats for context.
Russia's inflation rate https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi Down to pre-war levels and generally low, especially compared to Europe
Russia's GDP https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp Up to pre-war levels and apparently growing
So Russia looks fine, with China's and the rest of the non-western world's (AKA most of the world) help, and can keep this going basically forever (until the last Ukrainian). What's interesting is, why? One explanation is Putin's approval rates being greatly boosted compared to just a few years ago: https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/ It also gives him the opportunity to go after any opposition and disloyal elites. At the same time China, that has absorbed whatever deals the West ceased (although the West generally still trades for billions with Russian companies like in the past) and has made new ones with Russia too, also benefits from this since America and its major allies [read: property] in Europe are economically weakened and their citizens displeased, with cohesion being reduced even more etc etc
Russians could just vacuum bomb everything and end this now (there was a glimpse of that with Surovikin) but apparently that's not profitable. Eventually though Ukraine will run out of men and Russians seem to be pretty aware of attempts by Americans and the English to fuck this forecast up, e.g. the failed Kazakhstan color revolution a while back. The failed color revolution in Iran too, but this was mostly against Iran itself. And Russian government is highly invested in this now since losing in any way means severe reduction of their geopolitical power, NATO expanding etc, and Putin's approval rates among not only the people but also elites plummeting. So it'll probably just be a boring grind, which also profits any copium/hopium-selling grifters involved in covering the conflict, with the arms industries involved raking in most of the profits. Nothing out of the ordinary
If the Russians really did have concerns about the treatment of Russian speakers in East Ukraine, or about ultra-nationalist ideologies in Ukraine (the so called "Nazis") that are hostile to Russian traditions of multi-culturalism and ethnic mixing with Siberians, Cauasians and Central Asians and the influence of prominent Russian Jews among Russia's elite (which Russians generally regard as good and positive about their country and the Russian state tends to promote) ... then what would've made these concerns more credible would surely be to try and use global institutions like the UN (which the Russians, including Comical Lavrov, supposedly support) to further international inspections to establish if there are these violations of human rights in those territories.
But look at what happened. They jumped instead to sending "Little Green Men" across the borders to establish breakaway republics, conveniently enough after decisively losing attempts to gain influence in the country by the game of corruption and money (which Russia and the US have been playing, no doubt). Now this unilateral invasion on some trumped up, ever-changing pretext that they can never get straight (that Ukraine was preparing to attack Russia or something). And there is a history of this imperial rhetoric and believing Russia should have a more powerful place in the world than it currently does (and something more like the post WWII apex of its power, clearly gone forever), and now this strange historical thesis about how Ukraine should be part of Russia due to their shared origin in Kyivan Rus (despite everything that happened before and after). With all this it is hard to take it credible that it is really about these concerns. And more so if you (Putin) have a history of political assassination and presiding over a country which despite every advantage in human capital (well educated population on paper) and natural resources has been in relative decline for a long time and you need to bring some victory triumph parade home to distract from this.
There are some different thoughts about the impact of the current war on Russia's GDP - it's possible that some elements might expand reflecting a "war economy" and also there is no clear information on the statistics that the Russians will be providing and whether they overstate economic growth. Views on the impact of sanctions may be as follows - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/ - in May 2023, WB, IMF and OECD all estimated a decline in total GDP although there is the "fog of war".
We will only know about this after inflation slows to the point that clearly established PPP can be used and objective metrics (night time lights etc) can be brought to bear on Russia's economy, and as Russia restores a "normal economy" where certain kinds of production that will inflate GDP are not included.
And the only way Russia can destroy Ukraine is with nuclear weapons, which is about as realistic as Russia destroying the USA in the same way.
Russia can't bomb Ukraine because its planes get shot down as soon as they come within 50 km of the border/front line.
The best Russia can do is what it's doing now; sending a few missiles that it still manages to produce and some drones. And 90% + of this gets shot down.
One of the odd things thinking back about the sanctions is that when they were stepped up in March 2022, there was this idea of:
"Oh, the Westerners claim these sanctions are targeted, but they are actually trying to attack the common Russian people through imposing these, make them suffer and so make the government fall!"
And now if the sanctions aren't actually hurting consumption of basic goods and services among the Russian people much (although it remains to be seen how true that is, after the fog of war subsides) there seems to be this kind of response "The sanctions failed!" rather than just believing that they were targeted not to do that anyway. Maybe the sanctions actually were somewhat effectively targeted towards oligarchs, towards decoupling Europeans from Russia capital and resources and limiting Russia's ability to source weapon components after all, while minimizing collateral damage? (But that doesn't fit the narrative of "flailing American incompetence").
“If Ukraine had been in NATO, Russia wouldn't have attacked it and instead still getting trillions from the EU”.
I don’t know if your theories on genetics will win. It seems to me that they are more and more failing (the origin of R1b and Indo-European languages are more and more westernmost day by day, but anyway I consider positive that you became anti-Harvardians as someone before you was), but certainly your positions about History are failing before you began to speak. If Ukraine entered the NATO (that many of us consider a criminal organization), just for the criminal article 5, Ukrainians would have been free to annihilate all Russian speaking and Russians in the hart without that Russia could make anything. For that Russia invaded Ukraine, and be certain, it won’t end good for Ukraine, the same England and US, and some country in the Levant.
@Davidski “NATO wasn't a threat to Russia. It was actually a guarantee that Russia wouldn't do anything stupid and hurt itself.”
I’m with you on this, but didn’t Gorbachev feel cheated when George H. W. Bush tricked him to agree for German reunification and the dissolution of the “Warsaw Pact” military organization in exchange for a pledge of “not one inch”, namely NATO being frozen in its 1990 borders.
I also, as an “America First” Trump supporter, remember how the neocons, globalists, RINO’s and “cuckservatives” invaded Iraq under a false pretense of “WMD”, and how many US and allied troops’s casualties tallied (>5,000 dead, 25,000 wounded), $3T of US taxpayers money wasted so that Cheney and Haliburton make money.
And now, all these warmongers, who have never sent their own offsprings to die for greed, have shifted to the backbone of the establishment Democratic Party, and they are blindsiding and gaslighting the American public about Ukraine, and now China v. Taiwan.
The Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party along with the Trumpist flank of the GOP are marginalized (on every front, including economically) by the uniparty system Deep State.
What the US government is all about is to impose woke ideas of Greta Thunberg environmentalism, LGBTQ agenda etc coupled with neocon expansionism all over the world a-la- The Project of a New American Century, but with a fierce rubber baron capitalism: abortion should be legal at all costs, but god forbid someone can’t pay $300,000 towards surgery. Feed the military-prison-industrial complex, but not the hungry. Rescue all the “too big to fail” banks but preach capitalism to someone else. Beat on China all you want but trust that country to buy your $32T (and rising) unsustainable debt.
So bottom line, the narrative of the Deep State is not to be taken at face value. And for once, I see my government as feeling like they’re stronger than god, that nothing could ever defeat it.
That’s why I’m not buying their PR spin on Ukraine or any story. The Deep State needs to shrink to what the original Founding Fathers envisioned, the US needs to finally mind its own business, rampant capitalism should be reined in, and cocky Biden needs to be impeached.
It is what it is; Russia invaded a country for no good reason that had security and territorial guarantees, including from Russia itself.
The countries that signed this agreement are now obliged to help Ukraine. And even if they didn't sign it they're still obliged to help Ukraine, because Ukraine was invaded for no good reason.
This war is a disaster for Russia as well. Russia is now a pariah state with a bleak future.
If Ukraine was in NATO, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine and it would still be seen as a relatively normal country.
@andrzejewski: US external debt is $7.3T, or 23% of public debt (the majority is domestic; debt you owe yourselves). China holds 11.6% of that external debt, so in total holds about 2.7% of US debt in total.
China invests in some US debt because this diversifies its holdings, and the US is considered to be very low risk (if you look at the economic record).
This narrative where China hold large shares of US debt and essentially somehow finances the US to buy products from China, almost propping the US up and with the US dependent on it (and China doesn't cut the US out for some reason), is probably a false narrative.
There was more truth in that narrative back circa the late Bush and early Obama years, but even then China was not as large in this picture as supposed and it's no longer the case - https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/. To the degree debt is held by foreigners, this has shifted to other countries for various reasons that probably boil down in part to foreign exchange rates.
Spy said... 1)Daviski, stop being so prim about Ukraine's "internationally recognized borders", as if Ukraine had been traditionally sovereign. Russia showed unprecedented magnanimity in letting every "republic" detach themselves from the Soviet Union, all of which had been part of Imperial Russia prior to that. 2) Besides, would you like continental Europe to again recognize Poland's "internationally recognized borders" of 1795-1918? They were revised only by dint of outside tyrants Wilson, Clemençeau and Lloyd-George. … Ad 1) What "Russian magnanimity" - allowing the republics to secede? After all, Putin himself, on the eve of the war with Ukraine, called this permission a great fraud of the previous authorities of Stalinist Russia- piar for the world. It was a wink of a false knowing eye. In fact, there was total subjugation of the republics! Ad 2) After one hundred or two hundred years of borders, we do not want them to change. The nation is not cattle whose fence is moved from time to time by a shepherd so that it can eat again. Russia is used to constant punitive resettlement, but democratic nations - not!
1) Rather than a promise, there was actually only a verbal assurance or informal agreement not to expand eastward, but this was never formalized nor had any binding value. No official declaration was signed, nor were there any written agreements prohibiting future expansions.
2) The "expansion" (which is actually enlargement) only became a reality in 1999, when the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact had already been dissolved for several years. This means that the countries of Eastern Europe were free to choose autonomously whether or not to join NATO without being accountable to anyone, including Russia.
3) No, Gorbachev did not dissolve the Warsaw Pact as a result of a promise made to Bush not to expand NATO, nor was he "tricked" by Bush regarding German reunification. These events occurred for completely different reasons.
4) Russia considers NATO a threat simply because it puts a brake on its military expansion in Eastern Europe.
Each country can freely join pacts and international organisations in accordance with its interests. Russia has no jurisdiction over the countries of the former Soviet Union or Imperial Russia. There is no such thing in international law. The NATO pact is a defence alliance and has no pretensions towards Russia.
Nobody tricked Russia. Simply, in that time Russia was unable to stop unification of Germany or NATO 'expansion'. Actually Russia tricked Ukraine by signing the Budapest memorandum.
On the other hand, we all in Europe watched the American invasion of Iraq without sympathy or approval. It was already in the beginning clear that this intervention was not justified. But Ukraine is completely different case and have nothing in common with Iraq. The whole European security structure is at risk and USA simply cannot "mind its own business", because if it leaves Ukraine to Russia, America's core interests will come into question sooner, or later with much bigger cost. America does not live in an isolated bubble and cannot pretend that Europe is not its business.
"I also, as an “America First” Trump supporter, remember how the neocons, globalists, RINO’s and “cuckservatives” invaded Iraq"
The invading party this time is Russia. Which is kind of relevant in sorting out who is to blame. This is in some ways the Russian equivalent of the Iraq disaster, with the difference that Russia didn't roll over Ukraine and therefore is even deeper in shit now.
@ph2ter: actually I think though, while America cutting and running, right now, would be bad here, there's a case for Europe taking this one forward in the longer term more independently of the US. That would cut through the Russian rhetoric about America's partners being subordinates, and is anyway more in line with some of the semi-hostile "First Among Equals" claims that some in the US throw Europeans way (calling them military freeloaders who should shut up). And also America is likely to be an inconstant partner due to the isolationist and domestic policy concerned turn of the Republican Party. So it just makes sense.
@epoch, one idea I heard about this war is that Putin specifically intended all the rhetoric around "militarizing Ukraine" which was used as a trumped up excuse to invade, was specifically meant to be parallel to Iraq, in order to show that Russia was a peer of the USA and could get away with invading countries based on false "Weapons of Mass Destruction" claims. That he knew it was all false but "The Americans got away with it, so why can't I, as we're just as important a country?"
Whether it's true or not, what the world's superpower (or perhaps now one of two superpowers) can do with a dictatorial and genocidal regime that's not even liked and supported by Arab states in its region and which has almost no international support is far from what a regional power can get away with against a democracy that's the buffer between it and the region that's, depending on how you count it, the second or third strongest economic bloc in the world.
The only thing Ukrainians and Iraqis have in common is being invaded by a country far more powerful than theirs for no good reason. That being said, Ukraine is NOT like Iraq and has nothing in common with Iraq. Ukraine is not an oppressive dictatorship, did not invade Iran and Kuwait, and did not exterminate the Kurds.
Regarding the Russian language in Ukraine, it was not solely spoken in the eastern part of the country. The number of people using the Russian language at home in Ukraine significantly surpasses those who declared Russian as their mother tongue in the census. Russian is used at home by 43-46% of the country's population (in other words, a proportion similar to Ukrainian). Additionally, a 2012 study showed that 60% of songs on the radio, over 60% of newspapers, 83% of magazines, and 87% of books were in Russian. Furthermore, 80% of websites in Ukraine are in the Russian language, and the Russian version of Wikipedia is five times more popular than the Ukrainian version, and so on.
% of people who indicated they speak Russian at home according to the survey of the sociological service "Rating" from September 6 to October 10, 2019 in regional centers: https://i.imgur.com/3hRRe5H.png
The true "culprit" of Ukraine was to have prohibited an official bilingual system at the state level. Obviously, this doesn't justify even 1% of what Russia has done to Ukraine. In much of Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian speakers are not different ethnicities, and there is a certain degree of bilingualism and blending between the two languages. Unironically, the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine since 2014 only serves to distance Ukrainians from any desire to have dealings with Russia. They wanted to crush the Ukrainian national sentiment, but instead, Moscow is strengthening it like never before.
"If Ukraine didn't fight back, they'd be doing a roaring trade right now and filled to the brim with Ukrainians.
Balts and Poles were next in line."
Balts and Poles who are part of NATO? Sure. Sounds like you're the one doing the shilling for Nuland, Sullivan, and the whole neo-con crew trying to implement the latest edition of Mackinder's geostrategic vision for the heartland.
"Zelensky will be remembered as a hero in Ukraine for generations to come."
When Ukraine loses, he'll flee to Israel or the U.S. and go down in history as the American puppet who sold out Ukraine for the benefit of western globohomo.
Interesting take! Russia presented their involvement in Syria on TV as the US presented its Iraq wars, with images and flicks of "smart bombs" zooming in on their targets and all.
You won't know what to think when all the Russian internet troll farms shut down."
Of course, since anyone who is skeptical of the anglo-zionist hegemon's mainstream version of events and takes an alternate or dissenting view is of necessity either a dupe or an outright paid disinfo agent of Putin's. Nothing else outside of that extreme binary can exist in the universe. Thanks for the edification.
"Genomic refugium of pre-domestication lineages in the Bronze Age Carpathian Basin"
"Horse domestication is a key element in history for its impact on human mobility and warfare. There is clear evidence for horse control from the beginning of the 2nd millennium BCE in the Carpathian Basin, when antler cheekpieces appear in the archaeological record mostly in the eastern areas. Previous archaeogenomic studies also revealed that the spread of the ancestors of modern day horses began at this time period, but the details of this event in Bronze Age Europe is yet to be uncovered. In this study we report a new shotgun genome (~0.9x coverage) of a Middle Bronze Age horse (radiocarbon dated to 1740-1630 cal. BCE) from Tompa site, southern Hungary, along with six mitochondrial genomes from various sites from Late Copper Age to Early Bronze Age Western Hungary.
Our results reveal a strong bottleneck among pre-domestication Carpathian Basin horses and delayed DOM2 introduction into the region compared to the surrounding areas. The population size reduction was most probably due to human mediated loss of natural habitat, but the practice of horsekeeping after the turn of the 2nd millennium BCE can not be excluded based on the genomic data.
Our results provide a complex history for horse domestication in the Central- European region, highlighting the need for further research to fully understand the extent and nature of human-horse interactions in this area throughout prehistory."
I barely watch news & not really into politics, apart from the occasional controversial chinwag, but if I do I go to AlJazeera It has western and western-educated journalists but without the pressure of schilling for the one metanarrative
It's somewhat perplexing but also amusing how the Russians have the American political right by the balls.
The guys that you probably follow religiously, like Tucker Carlson, Scott Ritter and their ilk, are at best Russia's useful idiots and at worse I don't know what.
Ask yourself what a real Republican like Ronald Reagen would do in a time like this instead of taking cues from a clown like Carlson.
I don’t know what Reagan would have done, but a smart American president (not smart American presidents have gone since Clinton) would either dissolve NATO simultaneously with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, or include Russia in NATO back in 1995 (Yeltsin and Putin at the beginning of their presidency were ready to join NATO) and would have taken control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Nuclear weapons already in 1995 through NATO.
It was because of such "strategists" like you that the war began You might think that NATO will stop Putin, and the war will also reach Poland if it drags on for several years
In 1995, Russia was a very unstable country fighting internal wars with Caucasian republics and provinces. NATO does not accept countries with the democratic deficits. Russia was in Soviet times and it is now an empire with its emperor, not a democracy. I don't know how Russia can survive under democracy within its current borders. In that case, Tatars, Mordvins, Bashkirs, Chechens, Dagestanis, etc. would separate from Russia in a very short period of time. This is the reason why it feels threatened by Ukraine. Because of democracy.
Through the research I dayly do I am seeing that Michel Lombardi was only her second husband. Anyway we don’t know who her true father was, thus we need at least a genetic test.
I think that your analysis is like the first moves in the chess game. They are important, but the winner will be who foresaw a move beyond yours. Russia and China will have next the same problems of US and France (and other countries of course). US had Trump, or Tucker Carlson as Davidski says, just because they are democracies. Russia and China aren’t democracies and everything will depend from the choose of their leader and a few other persons, also the use of an atomic attack. It is ridiculous that countries not widest than Massachusetts could think to count something when we are speaking of continents.
Well, it's all speculation. If they did not separate in the 1990s, they are not separating even more so now. Moreover, these branches of artificial countries, born in the bowels of the CIA, such as Croatia or Ukraine, are in a political struggle. There would be no USA and NATO and there would be no Croatia.
Why I have a feeling that here we also have several Medvedevs threatening with nuclear bombs. No USA, no NATO, no Ukraine and no Croatia? What does it mean? The next Russian move in this chess game? Desperate and loser people.
I believe Tatars, Mordvins, Bashkirs, Chechens, Dagestanis etc. would not separate from Russia for economic reasons but rather from a cultural point of view as they probably don't matter much economically, Tatars are more liberal and open in their Muslim beliefs in contrast to Dagestanis. But sovereign countries like Kazakhstan, which are economically independent, will distance themselves from Russia, in contrast to Kyrgyzstan, it will probably not be a difficult path to a democratic Russia, but some democratic states in the West are partly contradictory and, for example, it was earlier offner with the difference of opinion (see Corona / divided nation (Germany...) or other political opinion, classified as the most severe right... Vladimir is right, Russia really wanted to join NATO in the 90s!
"A smart American president would include Russia in NATO back in 1995 (Yeltsin and Putin at the beginning of their presidency were ready to join NATO)"
They did seek closer ties with Western nations and cooperated with NATO on certain issues, but the idea of Russia becoming a member of NATO was never seriously pursued or supported by either Yeltsin or Putin. You don't know what you are talking about. Moreover, do we really want to fool ourselves and believe that the Russian population would have been supportive? If they see the Baltic states in NATO as some kind of (non-existent) threat, imagine what a disappointment it would have been if the former Soviet empire had been at the mercy of those evil NATO American Westerners! Btw, joining NATO is not something that happens with the blink of an eye; there are several procedures to follow, and Russia, as devastated as it was in 1995, simply wouldn't have been ready yet.
"The smart thing to do was to get Ukraine into NATO as soon as possible, like before 2014"
The majority of the Ukrainian population was opposed to Ukraine joining NATO. They only started changing their minds from 2014 onwards when they realized that not having a fascist neighbor invading you might make life more comfortable. It's not even easy for Ukraine to join NATO today or after the war; its entry would be hindered by clowns like Erdogan and Orban. Just look at how difficult it has been for Finland to join or even for Sweden, which still hasn't made it.
"NATO does not accept countries with the democratic deficits"
I don't know how true this is, countries like Turkey have significant deficits in democracy and yet they are part of NATO. Hungary has them too lately. Furthermore, you are free to join NATO, but you cannot be kicked out.
"It's somewhat perplexing but also amusing how the Russians have the American political right by the balls"
Unfortunately, not only in America, it has gained a strong foothold in Europe as well. If only you knew how bad things really are...
"But Obama, Merkel, the French, etc. though it was better to appease and bloat Russia with gas and oil money."
What part of free exchange do you not understand? Those tricky Russians—always wanting mutual benefit!
By the way, Davidski, you have failed to post and engage my last two comments. I am not banned and I have violated none of your new rules. I demonstrated that you are wrong to so facilely report the line that the Russian invasion was unprovoked and I warned against your helping give political cover to Zelensky to bomb Russia's asset, the Zaporozh'e nuclear plant. Please post--and refute if you can!--those comments.
Poland was foolish to listen to British blandishments in WW2. Why would you enjoin such advice to Ukraine? Do hard feelings over Banderist massacres and Bogdan's uprisings motivate such bad counsel?
Or are you a run-of-the-mill and unskeptical journalist when it comes to politics, however stalwart you have been on race and genes?
I dont see why a bunch of guys from Kiev, who have obviusly been bribed by USA & the Brits, think they own the Donbass and Crimea. They don't and Russia has a right to take it back.
What about the international laws and treaties signed by everyone including Russia that say otherwise?
@ ph2ter “Why I have a feeling that here we also have several Medvedevs threatening with nuclear bombs. No USA, no NATO, no Ukraine and no Croatia? What does it mean? The next Russian move in this chess game? Desperate and loser people”.
I am not born yesterday. I am 75. I published books of poetry and critics. What I think now was already in my writings of 60 years ago. I wrote about 20000 letters on these questions of genetics and other. Davidski knows me from many years, and, when I exprime my real thinking, he doesn’t publish my letters, but I documented what I say, and in this case I said thar this war demonstrates how all the orthers of these last two centuries happened and why, also the Opium Wars and the role of the Sassoons beyond the English Crown. If you don’t like me, you should know and read the books of Alessandro Orsini. He is a sociologist of the LUISS University and he says that this war is “existencial” for Russia, and Russia will use its atomic arsenal. I add only that it is easier to annihilate a country of 20000 kmq than a continent. Remember that “desperate” people who run in our cities, come from elsewhere, has no difficulties to stab someone of us. They have nothing to loose. The knife of Russia is its atomic arsenal, and I’d suggest to the rich America to shed a look sometime to its Kensington streets.
Of course, the population of Russia will not join NATO. And Russia did not need this entry either in 1995 or now. These are not tiny Croatia or Ukraine, randomly formed thanks to the successful geopolitical intrigues of the UK and the US and existing exclusively as long as they are patronized from Washington. Russia's entry into NATO was primarily necessary for the security of Europe as a whole so that there would be no such situations as now. As for Ukraine's victory within the next 12 months, what is Davidski ready to deliver if this does not happen, and this will never happen.
@Vladimir:"These are not tiny Croatia or Ukraine, randomly formed thanks to the successful geopolitical intrigues of the UK and the US and existing exclusively as long as they are patronized from Washington. "
Croatia and Ukraine became independent when the old empires collapsed. They collapsed when democratic processes were introduced (after the collapse of the Soviet Empire mainly due to its failed occupation of Afghanistan). Therefore, their independence was inevitable and it has nothing directly to do with the UK or the USA. They were against the breakup of Yugoslavia if you remember the events and they could not do anything against our will to become independent from Yugoslavia (actually from Serbia, because Yugoslavia turned into Serboslavia after Tito's death). Croatia as a state was formed in the 9th century and the Croatian people have existed continuously since then for at least 1100 years, although throughout our history we have been parts of different empires. Yes, we are tiny as you say but it doesn't mean that the world is made only for Russia or that Russia has the right to destroy the whole world because of the will of one sick man heading it or the mafia hiding behind him. (Actually I think that the using of the nukes is not in China's or India's interests and that the Tsar listens their signals. Russia will not profit using them. This would be a desperate move.) (I actually think that the use of nuclear bombs is not in the interest of China or India and that the Tsar listens to their signals. Russia will not profit by using them. This would be a desperate move.)
Croatia has existed as an entity since 900s, it is a united 'Yugoslavia' which was a new entity. Because of the 1990s, media and 'reports' speak of centuries of ethnic hatred, but there was no such thing. the Croat and Serb dukes & kings existed in parallel and often helped each other (e.g. after the Bulgar invasion of Serbia, the elites fled to Croatia; or Liutevid of Pannonia took refuge with the Serbs). In fact, I really cant think of a single battle between them before 20th cc. It soured after unification in the 20th century,..
@pf2ter Due to the fact that in the 9th century some tiny principality existed for 100 years, and in completely different borders, it does not at all follow that an independent state should arise in this place in the 21st century. How many such principalities have existed since the 9th century - a great many. There is, for example, Catalonia, which also once existed as an independent principality. Until the United States is faced with the task of destroying Spain, Catalonia will be part of Spain, and when the United States wants to destroy Spain, Catalonia will immediately remember that they were once an independent county in the 10th century for 200 years. As for nuclear weapons, I don’t know why you got the idea that Russia is going to use them. No one in Russia even discusses this seriously.
These sorts of arguments invoking history to debate whether certain countries are really countries have no standing in the eyes of international politics and law.
International law is the law of the strong. If the United States wanted to bomb Iraq, Serbia, Libya or Syria, international law decided that this was a good thing and should continue to be done. Russia wanted to bomb Kyiv, international law stated that it was impossible to do this polo. If Hitler had won World War 2, then international law would have condemned the Jews and ruled that it was right to exterminate them, Hitler lost and international law condemned Germany. Here is the reaction of international law to the beginning of the bombing by the United States of Iraq https://imgur.com/JNPJDd3
This is exactly what the West thinks. He does not punish, but tries to punish. But the West seems to be wishful thinking in this regard. Such attempts have already been made by Swedish Charles XII, French Napoleon, German Hitler. But so far they have not been successful. It is naive to believe that Biden's attempt will be successful.
But even if the punishment is largely symbolic, then obviously there must be a good reason for it since so many countries are taking part and they're supported by the vast majority of their citizens.
I can tell you that the vast majority of Poles and Aussies support economic sanctions against Russia.
They're also on the side of the Ukrainians in this war, they support military aid to Ukraine, and they want Russia to fuck off.
Russia is a self-sufficient country. The ruble is worth a cent because trade between Russia and Europe has been stopped. In Russia, this is not felt in any way. And what of the one who is supported by the Poles and Australians. And the Chinese support Russia, and there are 1.5 billion of them, and not 50 million Poles and Australians combined.
Although the world is mostly ruled by the strong, it is still governed by international law, which has good principles at its core. If Hitler had won World War II and international law had condemned the Jews, then such a law would have been evil at its core. Such a world would then descend into chaos, as such principles could be applied to any nation that the strong despise (similar to what Russia is doing to the Ukrainians right now). I am not here to defend the actions of the USA, but Iraq was attacked for the first time because before that it attacked Kuwait, and Serbia was bombed because it attacked Kosovo and expelled 1.5 million Albanians from there (75% of the population). Syria and Libya were not invaded by the US, so these conflicts can be better described as civil wars involving strong powers such as the US or Russia.
@Rob Yes, Croats and Serbs were not in conflict until united in Yugoslavia. The core of the problem was that Croats in Yugoslavia were not equal to the Serbs. The inequality was unsustainable. Such kind of states could only exist under force, internal or external.
"When Ukraine wins this war, and it will within the next 12 months, this will be one of the greatest victories against evil in human history. The best thing for Russia is to get out of Ukraine, including Crimea, now."
Unfortunately, it is by no means certain that Ukraine will win (regain its old borders) without stronger Western support than what it currently has. I'm not even sure if it's in Ukraine's best interest to regain Crimea (and it's highly unlikely they will be able to reconquer it anyway). The population there is not at all pro-Ukrainian, they exclusively speak Russian, and even in the 1991 referendum when voters were asked, "Do you support the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine?" Crimea had the highest % of NO votes.
"Russia is not tiny Croatia or Ukraine, randomly formed thanks to the successful geopolitical intrigues of the UK and the US and existing exclusively as long as they are patronized from Washington."
This makes no sense. There is a Ukrainian State because the Bolsheviks (not the British or Americans) established the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1922, which in turn exists because even earlier, the partially recognized Ukrainian People's Republic emerged from its own civil war in 1917. In turn, this emerged because there was also a Ukrainian national sentiment that dates back several centuries.
I find it hard to understand the fascist language that is very popular among Russian propagandists, but seriously, what the hell does the period in which a country was born or formed have to do with this discussion? There is a Croatian people, and it doesn't matter if they were under Hungarian or Austrian rule for 1000 years. There are states and international law, and you respect them. Period. Do you seriously think that Russia is better or on par with the United States and China as a superpower? Well, no, it's only being kept alive by its natural resources and nothing else. Without them, it would be of very little significance. Even now, it has very little relevance. Considering the GDP per-capita, countries like tiny Croatia (but also Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain etc) make a much better impression than large Russia. But instead of seeing the enemy in the Russian government or in a certain mentality deeply rooted among Russians, you have chosen to see it in America and the West. It's a legitimate choice, but it doesn't lead anywhere.
Both Ukraine and Poland and most other European countries that are on duty condemning Russia are US satellites because they coordinate all their actions with the US Embassy in their country. Meeting of the Government of Ukraine: https://imgur.com/d4xUwpV
This can be answered in different ways. If in the same defiant tone as yours, then if someone does not want to have anything to do with Russia, then he must leave the territory conquered by the Russian Empire, and this is actually the whole of Ukraine. You can answer more calmly. Ukrainians and Poles have no choice, they will not move geographically to the place of Mexico and that is why they will have to deal with Russia even if they really don’t want to.
@Vladimir, do you think Yeltsin and Putin were going to enter NATO on US terms? Naivety. It was discussed in Russia that they proposed themselves as equal military partners. They also counted on German support and a new NATO status. You also write that Poland and Ukraine as US satellites condemn Russia . Well, we know and on the basis of experience after 1945 we can distinguish what it means to be a satellite and what it means to be an ally. Now we can see the huge difference!
@Rob, you write that the Ukrainian war has nothing to do with Poland? It does, but only in a different order. There was a plan to seize Poland first and the "Polonized" part of Ukraine (as Yuriev wrote). Don't you remember where the Russian army was based before moving east to invade eastern Ukraine? This change was forced by Ukraine's eastern actions. But the earlier plan was different!
@Gio, know that we don't need Orsini's books. In Poland and Ukraine, we have Putin's statements, we have texts by Yuriev and Dugin, which are instructions for him. Dugin has been writing for a year that “we have entered the final, eschatological (sic) battle; fight to the death; in Ukraine, we have started the final battle with the devil, i.e. the West. To this the Russian rulers add threats of an atomic attack: Putin, Medvedev, Lazarov and others. But this is lunatic madness; so what are they counting on? The world has never had any protection against madmen. So we react poorly!ainst madmen. So we react poorly!
@Vladimir"... if someone does not want to have anything to do with Russia, then he must leave the territory conquered by the Russian Empire, and this is actually the whole of Ukraine. ... Ukrainians and Poles have no choice, they will not move geographically to the place of Mexico and that is why they will have to deal with Russia even if they really don’t want to."
Why did you stop at the Russian Empire acquisitions, why didn't you go deeper into the past when the Mongols conquered Kievan Rus. The Mongols also have the right to the same territory. But no, it all boils down to nuclear weapons, as if they provide an excuse for the occupation, destruction and looting of neighbouring nations. How can we name this line of argumentation anything other than evil?
Naturally, Russia would not enter on the terms of its occupation by the US army. Terms could be negotiated and the US could sacrifice its arrogance for peace in Europe. The conditions would imply the joint adoption of key decisions, including the use of the army in third countries, the use of nuclear weapons exclusively by consensus of all countries, including the United States and Russia.
As for the Mongol Empire. Even during his lifetime, Genghis Khan divided the Mongol possessions between his sons. The eldest son Jochi received the lands in the west. Thus, the territory of modern Russia and Ukraine went to the ulus of Jochi (otherwise it was called the Great Horde). Then, after a series of internal conflicts, in particular, the Kazan Khanate, then the Crimean Khanate, then the Astrakhan Khanate separated from the Great Horde. A large horde existed on the territory of modern Saratov, Volgograd, Voronezh, Rostov regions of Russia and Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Dnepropetrovsk regions of Ukraine. In 1502, the Crimean Khan Mengli-Girey in a bloody battle defeated the Khan of the Great Horde, Shikh-Ahmed, the Great Khan of the Great Horde. Then Mengi-Girey destroyed the capital of the Great Horde, the city of Saray, and finally put an end to the Great Horde. Since that time, the Golden Horde ceased to exist officially. So no, there is no successor to the Mongol Empire of Genghis Khan.
Hi Vlad, I haven't had the pleasure of talking to a Russian-Communist imperialist in a long time. It is clear that many Russians like you want to destroy Poland, Ukraine and get their hands into the Balkans to wipe out Croatia and other Balkan states. It is good that you do not hide your intentions because that only strengthens the position of Western governments.
Regarding Russia
1-It is evident that it has become a small country (140 million inhabitants) that is not even European because most of its territory is in Asia. Its economy is a disaster and the GDP per capita will soon be like that of many African countries. In other words, it has never represented a threat to the European Union, which quadruples its population and wealth.
2-Their conventional army is a joke, they lost in Afghanistan, suffered in Chechnya and now they have been unable even to take Kyev a few kilometers from their border. Are you really planning to attack the Poles? now they are not alone, the European Union will never allow the Russians to set foot on Polish territory, the longer you take to accept it the bigger the disappointment will be.
3-Ukrainians, Poles, Croats etc have already suffered for decades from Russian communist imperialism. They only want to be free, they will fight to the death to get it and we will help them.
4-Russia has not been a superpower for a long time, neither economically nor militarily, if they do not become a democratic regime they will end up as a Chinese colony.
5-No one knows how the war will end, we only know that thousands of innocent people have died and that Ukraine will be devastated. The conflict may last for decades and even if the Russians were to control the entire Ukrainian territory they would face a fierce civil resistance and a bloody guerrilla war supported by the West.
6-Any hope of negotiation with the Russians will fail, there has been no hope for peace and reconciliation for a long time.
7-The Russian people who oppose Putin's pseudo-communist regime must rise up and liquidate this clown dictator. After so many touch-ups, the only thing left for he to do is to get his ears done, soon he will look like an old Hollywood actress like his friend Berlusconi (may he rest in peace).
8-Don't try to fool anyone, Russia has been trying to destabilize Europe politically and economically for decades, and has only managed to be ten times poorer than us. Perhaps it would be good to change tactics and to procure a little freedom and happiness for its people
9-The whole of europe has nationalism problems, Great Britain (Scotland), Belgium (Flanders), France (Corsica), Balkans, Italy (north vs. south), Spain (Catalonia) etc. and the Russians try to support independence movements to destabilize the EU. So far they have not achieved their goals but we know well who our enemies are, and you Vlad, are one of them.
10-You know, Putin's future is the same as that of Saddam Hussein, Gadaffi and other criminals who have committed crimes against humanity.
It is precisely due to the fact that there are opinions in the West that you have comprehensively outlined here Putin is in power. There is no opposition to him and there will not be until adequate people come to power in the West. The war is unlikely to reach your mountains, but you should also tighten your belts there. The economy of Germany, the locomotive of the EU, which subsidized all of you, including Poland, for 20 years, is sinking to the bottom.
I know now why Gaska has been against the kurganist theory, not for my reasons (anyway I descend from the chieftains of Yamnaya with my R-Z2110, even though I think that the odest origin is around the Alps), but for hate against our descendants of the hunter-gatherers of the Siberian corridor. It is comprehensible, seen that his origins are uncertain both from a genetic and a cultural point of view.
By the way, about the standard of living. How many tanks does the Basque country have with a high standard of living? Not a single tank. One Russian tank will arrive with a tankman who has a low standard of living and there will be no Basque Country with a high standard of living. This is how life is now.
OT: Iberia's Prince with the Rock-Crystal daggers, suspected to be an precociously early steppe Bell Beaker prince, with many polygamous wives buried alongside in some guesses, who we couldn't get DNA from.. apparently a female - https://phys.org/news/2023-07-power-copper-age-ivory-lady.html
However, they will have to. Ukrainians will lose the war to the majority of Russians, and if they don't want to lose, then Americans will have to negotiate with people like me. That's life.
Putin's wet dreams were that Europe would freeze, and now they are that the German economy will sink to the bottom. Neither have we frozen, nor will the German economy sink, but Russia would certainly turn into a huge North Korea spanning two continents. He who takes the sword will perish by the sword, at the end. Russians should rather think about their standard of living, not medieval empires. Ordinary Russians are dying, and only the mafia that is in power in Russia benefits from such imperial wars.
BASF to downsize ‘permanently’ in Europe World’s biggest chemicals company says high energy costs make region increasingly uncompetitive https://www.ft.com/content/b0b2b2c2-ee63-4989-afab-6882feab4b73
The slow death of Europe Industry is being strangled by sky-high energy bills and mountains of bureaucracy. https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/03/02/the-slow-death-of-europe/
Don't you realize that we westerners are not scared?, before a Russian tank reaches the Pyrenees we will have colonized the sun. If you really are a liberal you should be more concerned about the thousands of young Russians who are dying uselessly and less worried about the existence of Croatia or Poland. Wouldn't it be preferable for Russia to invest more in educating its people and improving their living conditions than in tanks and nuclear weapons?
@Gio you said-"his origins are uncertain both from a genetic and a cultural point of view”
Ha Ha, I am very clear about my cultural and genetic origin, I don't need the Kurganists to lecture me about it.BTW, I don't hate Siberian HGs, but it is clear that I would rather have my origin in Villabruna than in Siberia. Time will tell who is right.
I hope your life is going well and that we can discuss for a long time, it is always good to confront ideas.
@Matt
Those remains were analyzed in 2015 by Sara Palomo (mtDNA-H1) "a man with European maternal origin", No results were obtained for Y-Chr.
It was later analyzed by V. Villaba Mouco and no genetic results were obtained.
In any case, it is not surprising that “Lady Ivory” is a high priestess, since in Montelirio more than 20 women committed suicide (high levels of mercury and cinnabar).
Other examples of important women in Iberia
El Argar culture (La Almoloya, Gatas, El Argar, gold and silver diadems...) BB culture (Gold Lady, Humanejos, Madrid)-
In these cases they are not priestesses but princesses. In any case, women do well to claim their role in prehistoric societies, because they were not always objects of exchange (exogamy).
Until liberals come to power in the West, we Russian liberals have no one to talk to there. Now in power in the West are extremists who speak the language of ultimatums, and Putin is just right for them because he also speaks the language of ultimatums. Liberals speak the language of negotiations, discussing various options for solving problems and mutually reaching a mutually acceptable solution.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. Putin exactly corresponds to this position, because he himself has exactly the same peremptory position, only the exact opposite.
The context doesn't matter. The Tsar does the same to his Russian opponents as he does to the Ukrainians. He kills them. This is the law on which the mafia is based. We cannot allow such behaviour to prevail in international relations.
This is impossible. The Tsar can only try to achieve his goals by force, but he cannot go through the wall. The Soviet Union failed to conquer Afghanistan, and Ukraine is a much bigger target. Simply impossible to achieve. If the war were to last for tens of years, then Russia will be a ruin in the end, as well as Ukraine.
Although there is some information: Former U.S. officials have held secret Ukraine talks with prominent Russians The aim of the discussions is to lay the groundwork for potential negotiations to end the war, people briefed on the talks told NBC News.
Ukraine is a vassal territory dependent on the United States. What they will be told from Washington, then they will do it. But I agree that there are different opinions in Washington, and now the prevailing opinion is to continue the war.
Fake news, as Trump calls them, works great in Ukraine too. In a month they can convince public opinion of anything. The main thing is to have a team from the White House.
Putin being as asshole of Saddam Hussain’s proportions, I still can’t stand misguided and racist White Nationalist comments regarding Russians being an “Asiatic” or Eastern Eurasian race swirling on Twitter; Russia’s origins, overwhelming majority of population, language, culture, and…genetics…is European to the core. Russia is identical to other East Slavic pops, and overall its proportion of Yamnaya-like and WHG percentage profiles are slightly elevated compared to Western European Unetice derived R1b carrier demographics
Let me tell you one thing first. There was a time when, despite the very unpleasant experiences I had with from the Russified Polish communists in the times of Stalinism and later (I almost found myself in Workuta or Kolyma!), I felt some family sympathy for the Russians and opted for the respect and dignity of the Russians on the forums , because they are supposedly our relatives (although in the number of common IBDs with Poles, the Russians turned out to be only in 8th place!); because we have a common language and a lot of common history and the same paternal haplogroup…. When did everything go wrong? When an influential Russian (I think he appears on this blog...) praised Stalin that he had done the right thing by organizing a "so-called Katyn” (i.e. simply genocide), because Poles – as he argued – should know what their duties are towards the elder "imperialist brother"! If Russian citizens, and there were several of them on the Rodstvo forum, have such views, then there is no longer a corner for them in my feelings! Imperialism is a disgusting thing in relations between countries, correlated with contempt for the considered weaker. And you seem to be in this trend, citing force as the decisive argument of the Russians. This is what turns into contempt for them in the course of the war, which, due to the methods of destroying Ukraine that we are observing, may prove to be long-lasting. Pity! (I'll add details in the next post!)
Apparently there are issues with amelogenin regarding deletion of male-specific markers in males of certain populations, giving a false identification of "female". The rate is low and I'm not sure if the authors have addressed this possibility in their methodology or not, but there's at least some precedent for it to be a wrong call, potentially.
Vladimir said... You don't know the majority of Russians yet, I'm an extreme liberal among them July 6, 2023 at 9:02 PM
So in the end, I really don't know what lives in Russian skin. If the Russians hate their neighbors so much, why do they want to take them under their imperialist wings? In fact, what good can they offer people within their dream borders "all the way to Lisbon", to be "from Ocean to Ocean", if they cannot govern themselves on such a huge "their" territory of 1/7 of the globe? But can Russia at least take care of its traditional people?! Here is a graph of today's Russians by age and gender, and for comparison, a similar graph of today's Poles http://www.tropie.tarnow.opoka.org.pl/images/russia-age-sex-structure2022.jpg http://www.tropie.tarnow.opoka.org.pl/images/polska-ludnosc-wiek-plec-w2021.jpg
Both pyramids/trees are similar because we have similar genes and influences of great events, but the Russian one is far more complicated; these are the effects of wars, disease or negligence. In some periods the number of those born and still alive is great, and in others there are few born and still alive…. We look at the top of the tree/pyramid. There, born before World War II and during the war. These are my peers. The same harsh conditions for men and women at that time. Do you notice the difference between the number of men and women living in Russia to today? Here's catastrophically as in the ratio 2:10.3. These are the effects of the much shorter life span of men than women in Russia. In some European countries, the average life expectancy of men today reaches 82 years! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_life_expectancy
The average length of survival of Russian men is ... 64.21 years, so at the end of Europe (on a par with countries living under Russian "protection"). This tragedy is also seen against the backdrop of women. Women in most countries tend to live a little longer (it's genetic). Women in Russia do not live long, but they gain a numerical advantage over men around the age of 30, while in most countries only after the age of 45 (during the period of initial testosterone dysfunction); after all, Russian men live more than 10 years less than women and this difference is one of the largest in the world! What is happening to the fate of men? It's definitely Russia's participation in unsuccessful wars (as in Ukraine), difficult working conditions, lack of care and health culture (you know these facts and do not explain everything with drunkenness!). So why doesn't your state care about its citizens, about living in peace, about working conditions and health care, just as it fights for imperial dominance in the world at the cost of men's lives, economic and social neglect?
"if someone does not want to have anything to do with Russia, then he must leave the territory conquered by the Russian Empire, and this is actually the whole of Ukraine." Emm, but you're not the only ones who fought in the Russian Empire. To be fair, then you need to estimate the contribution of each nation in the conquests of the Russian Empire. Distribution of property as in a divorce. Have you used the human and material resources of Ukrainians? You have. It remains only to calculate how many served in the infantry, cavalry, Black Sea Fleet, in the militia, etc. How much provisions, horses, etc. were used. How many Ukrainians fought in the army during World War II, about 6 million? It's not a small contribution. Besides, speaking for the whole of Ukraine is unveraciously, Cossack Hetmanate, with it's territory, should be noted, united with the Moscow Kingdom, before the existence of the Russian Empire :D "The main thing is to have a team from the White House." Or a team with perverted imagination from Russian media outlet :D Yeay, they works great on meemaws like Rob and Gio. About vassalage... Maybe you're partly right, the US does not allow Ukraine much, such as invading the territory of Russia, hitting Russia with Western weapons. But despite this, I think the strike on the Crimean bridge, the strikes with drones on the Russian infrastructure inside Russia and dispatch of RVC, are the initiative of Ukraine. Also, US pressure on the Ukrainian politicians about negotiations, with high probability will lead to a split, the army will not support this. And your hopes for Trump, pointless. And as for Poland... It generally conducts an independent policy in many respects, it is strange that you don't see this.
@Michael I learned a new English/American word: meemaw. My positions are personal, of course, but at the light of the whole History. I think you should learn not English words (you are probably a mothertongue, but who read a lot the Books): Koloimis’kij, Zelens’kij, BlackRock, Great Israel, and lastly also Erdogan and the Nazis of the Batallion Azof. I bet upon Russia and China for the next future. The strategy was already used by Scipio the African: to bring the war into their home. P.S. Your name does mean "who is like GD", but he always came bad.
The uprising of Bogdan Khmelnitsky and his appeal to the Moscow tsar about entering Russia could not take place by itself, since these territories were part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The consent of the Moscow tsar to the entry essentially meant the beginning of a war with Rzeczpospolita. The war lasted from 1654 to 1686, ending with the loss of Rzeczpospolita part of the territories, including Kiev. The prefix "empire" was indeed added to the name of Russia in 1721 after the victory over Sweden, but this does not mean that he ruled another country until 1721. Well, everything else is fake news noodles. Ukraine is a territory with no economy and budget. Its existence is completely dependent on subsidies from Washington. Poland is also governed from Washington, but is financed in addition to the United States also at the expense of Germany from the budget of the European Union.
Poland is also governed from Washington, but is financed in addition to the United States also at the expense of Germany from the budget of the European Union.
Haha.
I see you're quite the comedian.
Russia can only dream about the economy that Poland has, even without any substantial natural resources.
@StP “Has China abandoned the idea of colonizing Siberia forever?”
Probably it doesn’t, but who put Russia in the hands of China? Who feared that Western Europe, not only Germany, were allied with Russia, and before who made that Germany (Italy counted a little then) attacked URSS instead of slauthering the soldiers who were waiting along the Channel and the trick of Pearl Harbour made its pourpose (US knew very well that). The work should be done in the east above all. I think that China remember more, than the few Siberia subtracted by the Tsars, the Sassoons and the English Crown, and anyway the dominant question for them, Russians and we all will be the Afro-Islamic hell in the next years. Seen that we are speaking of genetics, I think that Turks have no more than 7% of “Turkish”, as other elected people and also the Arbereshet in some hamlet of Southern Italy. I know very well what I have speaking about.
Let your friends know this video of an Italian strategist, Lucio Caracciolo of the "Limes" review, and let them know which is the reality beyond all what they aren't able to know. What a pity if they don 't understand Italian.
@Gio wrote, I bet upon Russia and China for the next future.
You wrote that you bet on an alliance between Russia and China. I think it is short-lived the alliance, threatened by competition for Siberia (as it was in the past) But if public health matters, let's compare the lifespan of men: I'm looking at the men's life expectancy list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy China: 75.46 years old, i.e. ranked 47th in the world Russia, like Tanzania and Eritrea: 64+, i.e. ~150th in the world. Are you not worried about such a state of health and life of working and fighting men in Russia? Do Russian imperial and conquest (in Ukraine or Poland - according to threats) inclinations make sense?
"these territories were part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth." Doesn't matter. The Commonwealth didn't controle territories that entered into an alliance with Moscow. Thats the point. You've said that all the lands were conquered by the Russian Empire. Don't try divert the story in a other direction. "The war lasted from 1654 to 1686" Except for the years of the armistice (Truce of Vilna), and the alliance against the Swedes. "Well, everything else is fake news noodles. Ukraine (Poland) is a territory with no economy and budget....." Keep saying your morning prayer, it wont change much.
' you write that the Ukrainian war has nothing to do with Poland? It does, but only in a different order. There was a plan to seize Poland first and the "Polonized" part of Ukraine (as Yuriev wrote). ''
And what is your source for that ? Reading Dugins memoirs or from your observations of Dravidians in Europe ? please.
In all likelihood, R1a was born somewhere in North Eurasia. More importantly, its R1a-M417 subclade, which encompasses almost 100% of modern-day R1a lineages, no doubt came into existence somewhere on the Pontic-Caspian (or Western) steppe in what is now Ukraine and southern Russia just 7,000-6,000 years ago.
And within a couple of thousand years it expanded in almost all directions, probably on the back of the early Indo-European dispersals (see here), to cover a massive range from Scandinavia to South Asia. It is the beast among Y-haplogroups.
@ StP "Russia, like Tanzania and Eritrea: 64+, i.e. ~150th in the world. Are you not worried about such a state of health and life of working and fighting men in Russia? Do Russian imperial and conquest (in Ukraine or Poland - according to threats) inclinations make sense?"
You are speaking to a person whose country has the highest lasting of life and my family frequently reached 90 and even 100. I think that Russians live in a difficult country as to the climate and the circumstancies, and smoke and vodka aren't favourable to the health, but fortunately Russian women live their splendid youth. Anyway the territory of Russia is that of the hunter-gatherers of the Siberian corridor, and they own that for we all who from up there did come.
I don't know who you are. Probably in your country people has a longer life, but very likely it is consumed by an endless infancy and an interminable decadence.
Blogger Gio said... I think that Russians live in a difficult country as to the climate and the circumstancies, and smoke and vodka aren't favourable to the health, but fortunately Russian women live their splendid youth. Anyway the territory of Russia is that of the hunter-gatherers of the Siberian corridor, and they own that for we all who from up there did come.
Russian women actually have a slightly better life expectancy than men. But the Russian authorities should draw conclusions from the deplorable fate of Russian men in Russia and in the countries it has enslaved and change its fatal "geopolitics" of frequent wars and conquests that make its citizens cannon fodder. If the State cannot take care of its own people, let it give up its greed for other people's lands; and other people.
Blogger Rob said...@ StP 'There was a plan to seize Poland first and the "Polonized" part of Ukraine (as Yuriev wrote). '' And what is your source for that ? Reading Dugins memoirs or from your observations of Dravidians in Europe ? please.
Yes, the source of information that the military invasion of Russia was to begin with the Polonized part of Ukraine and Poland is precisely this book by Yuriev, The Third Empire, Russia as it should be; and the confirmation is the fact that the concentration of Russian troops initially took place on the Podnieper River, near the border, and in the last moment, because the plan of attack was visibly changed, the army marched to the east.
219 comments:
1 – 200 of 219 Newer› Newest»Machiavelli had some things to say about mercenaries.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/24/wagner-chief-says-he-is-inside-rostov-army-hq-controls-citys-military-sites-a81617
This is great.
https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1672564280007311363
If I was Zelensky wouldn't be putting my hope up about any of this shitshow translating into success of the Counteroffensive™
Better stick to digging up more graves and clearing out old ones for new UAF arrivals.
https://archive.is/z9eRQ
https://archive.is/OPclg
https://t.me/CIG_telegram/32428
The battle for Moscow will start in a few hours, then we'll see.
These sorts of situations develop very quickly.
Well, that blew over quickly.
sounds like Slavs need Vikings to govern them again
.........
btw Dave, can you upload the better coverage of the supposed CHG-shifted Rou-N-outlier_#2 (I6661) to G25
@Rob
I'm still updating the datasheets.
@Palacista
Not sure if we can say it blew over quickly.
It's now clear that Russia is a joke. So there's more comedy on the way.
Does anyone know some good ancient genetics bloggers? A lot of my old favorites like Razib, BellBeakerBlogger and Davidski got busy and aren't blogging on the subject as much, and several like Dienekes have quit altogether.
It'd be great if Matt had a blog.
Yeah, there are few things I need to finish. Once they're done I'll start blogging again.
At least finally now there's lots of material for good blog posts.
The so called coup fizzled out. Prigozhin exiled, and Wagner, or what’s left, absorbed into the Russian Army. Oligarchs opposed to Putin fleeing the country. Putin’s hand greatly strengthened.
The Russian leadership says the SMO will continue until the Ukrainian army is completely destroyed, and the Nazi junta in Kiev is eliminated and replaced.
No statement on how much of Ukraine Russia will annex. Russia does not recognize Ukraine as a sovereign.state with a legitimate government, and Russia will not negotiate with the gansters in Kiev.
I have lots of family in both Russia and Ukraine. What a mess. Some of our relatives in Ukraine are wealthy and send their kids to school in England. At least they're safe.
@Davidski
Your initial expectations from the statement, "The battle for Moscow will start in a few hours, then we'll see," have certainly taken an unexpected turn. Now, you're stating, "Not sure if we can say it blew over quickly. It's now clear that Russia is a joke. So there's more comedy on the way." I perceive a hint of disappointment in your tone, am I mistaken?
It's important to remember that actions, such as those of Prigozhin, are often a response to a much larger game. It appears his moves might have been a pre-emptive strike against a potential power play from the Shoigu/Gerasimov faction. And it seems that a tentative balance was restored, courtesy of Lukashenko's timely peacemaking intervention.
When you say, "It's now clear that Russia is a joke," it's crucial to clarify that you're primarily referring to its ruling circles and highest military command. The wider military force has proven resilient, despite its recent challenges. However, the high command's questionable competence was already apparent in 2022.
As for the other side of the equation, if you look beyond the Western narrative, it's not difficult to see that Ukraine's situation is far from perfect. Zelensky may now be a political figure, but let's not forget his roots in television comedy. His recent camo-clad, Kevlar-wearing photoshoots are a stark contrast to his former profession. And it's worth noting his veiled suggestion of indefinitely postponing elections - that doesn't exactly scream democratic ideals.
I'd urge caution against banking on an imminent internal collapse of Russia. The situation is far more complex and resilient than one might think.
Externally, the much-anticipated "Counteroffensive™" has not lived up to expectations. It's doubtful whether this will significantly alter the direction of the conflict. Understanding the Russia-Ukraine conflict demands more than consuming a one-sided narrative - it's a complex picture that requires careful, unbiased examination.
If there's a desire to grasp the complete failure of the UAF's counter-offensive, there are numerous channels on Telegram - both Russian and otherwise - providing graphic visuals of the fate met by UAF units, including those equipped with the much talked about Leopard tanks and Bradley IFVs, and other second-hand Western military equipment, when they tried to push forward across multiple fronts. The situation for Ukraine appears quite dire.
@Spanked
You could check out Rob's blog, its pretty good:
https://archaeogeneticsblog.com/
@Altvred
The counteroffensive hasn't really started yet. What you're seeing are shaping and probing operations for the main push.
When it starts you'll know.
Not really sure what your point is about Ukraine's casualties. It's a war. People die in wars.
That's why it's very bad to start wars. Someone should tell Putin and Russia.
But Ukrainians have every right to fight to regain their internationally recognized borders from Russia. No one has the right to tell them to stop just because their casualties are high (albeit much lower than Russia's, as we both know).
And Ukrainians do want to fight. They're not being forced by Zelensky or anyone else. If Zelensky doesn't do what Ukrainians want, he'll be out of a job tomorrow. That's how they roll.
Yes, I'm disappointed that Russia didn't implode on the weekend. I'd really like to see it just piss off and stop bothering its neighbors. But that time will come, very likely after Ukraine's counteroffensive, which is coming soon.
I think Ukraine will do just fine as a new EU and NATO member after the war.
@Davidski
It is a complicated topic but as a person with most of family living in Ukraine i must say that many if not most men are hiding either in some datchas or at home. There is zero euphory for new mobilizations and most people just want to it right now. Many also tried to escape to Europe but got shot or drowned on the way. One thing is being pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian another thing is getting drafted and thrown into the frontline after a few days and getting killed in matter of days like it is the case for many forced conscripts. Ukraine already had something like 12+ mobilization waves (compared to one in Russia) and every new wave is more repressive with many in Kiev and Ivano-Frankivsk now even banned from hospitals if they dont can prove that they are not needed for the frontline. This war caused a total destruction of ukrainian demographics and even if we take Crimea the economic, demographic and politic damage will make the state impossible to survive on its own for decades . It will be a failed state just as dependant from foreign money and help as Afghanistan.
"@Davidski,
I wholeheartedly agree that the act of invading another nation is fundamentally wrong. Yet, we must remember that Russia is not the sole player to have overstepped this line in the last century (hint country's name starts with U and ends with A).
As someone with deep-rooted familial connections to both Russia and Ukraine, I observe the conflict from a personal perspective, not as an uninvolved bystander revelling in the misfortunes of either side. Every casualty, be it Russian or Ukrainian, represents a profound loss.
Your statement, "Not really sure what your point is about Ukraine's casualties," prompts me to clarify. While it's true that warfare inevitably entails loss, we must evaluate the costs and outcomes. For several weeks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been engaged in "probing" missions, with their much-anticipated counter-offensive still yet to materialize in a significant way. This stalemate scenario implies that the losses suffered thus far might ultimately prove futile.
The notion of comparing body counts or kill ratios to ascertain who's "winning" a war is not only insensitive but also misleading. The unfolding situation in Ukraine isn't so linear; both sides suffer, and the ramifications reach far beyond mere numbers. The recent conscription in Ukraine, for example, reminiscent of Germany's desperate Volkssturm in 1945, indicates a country pressed to its limits.
https://imgur.com/a/8Vuc3nv
It's critical to distinguish between a populace's willingness to fight and the necessity forced upon them. Reports suggest forced conscriptions and men being dragged off the streets into service - this isn't the picture of a nation raring to go into a meat grinder.
Your disappointment over Russia not collapsing over the weekend and your predictions about its imminent downfall post-Ukraine's counteroffensive seem premature. Making bold forecasts in volatile situations can often backfire.
As for Ukraine's future prospects as a member of EU and NATO, let's take a pragmatic view. The war has caused a significant population drain, with many choosing to seek refuge in safer territories, and it's uncertain how many will return post-conflict. Moreover, a significant portion of Ukraine's populace now resides in Russia-controlled regions. As things stand, Ukraine's population is around 28-34 million, a steep decline from 50 million. A recovery to its former stature appears challenging, to say the least.
While we may agree that the invasion was a misguided decision, it's equally important to recognize that further escalating the conflict by supplying more arms is not beneficial for the average Ukrainian, especially those facing the immediate impacts of war. It's all too easy to advocate for continued warfare from the comfort of a distant location, far removed from the realities on the ground.
@sykes.1
"The Russian leadership says the SMO will continue until the Ukrainian army is completely destroyed, and the Nazi junta in Kiev is eliminated and replaced."
Yes, that's what they say.
Although Dmitry Peskov recently claimed that one goal of the so called SMO has been met: The demilitarization of Ukraine. Because now, he claimed, Ukrainians are only fighting with material provided by the west. And so, he added, the SMO has turned into a war with the collective west. (In fact that's not really true, western material still constitutes only a fraction of the UAF.)
And calling a democratically elected government a "junta" is not really appropriate. Even Zelensky's predecessor Poroshenko was democratically elected, see:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_presidential_election
That's something the Russian propagandists constantly conceal. So even if the Maidan revolution is described as a coup, the pro-western governments that followed were not illegal juntas, but democratically legitimized.
And what regards its alleged Nazism, you can learn about the ideology of Zelensky's party here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Servant_of_the_People
Sounds very far from the NSDAP's programme:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Socialist_Program
@Altvred
Russia can pull out of Ukraine any time and cut its losses.
If it doesn't, then the counteroffensive is coming.
If you don't believe me, then fine. Wait and see what happens.
@Coldmountains
It will be a failed state just as dependant from foreign money and help as Afghanistan.
Idiotic comparison.
Also, do you know that I'm actually in contact with people from different parts of Ukraine?
Nothing that you said rings true.
@Davidski
The Ukrainian budget is now almost entirely financed by the west with the military help even surpassing the Russian military budget. The country has lost 1/4 of its population with a pre-war birthrate of 1.3 (definitely much lower right now because many young females left and most will not come back). Also much of private business collapsed and there is no functioning economy in the country anymore (a lot of factories were closed/destroyed with workers forced to be conscripted). The country (poorest in Europe after Moldavia) already had massive economic and demographic degradation before the war with a gigantic brain drain (there was no official census for 20 years so the population was likely already around 35 million before the war). I really dont see a golden future for Ukraine no matter how the war ends every day without peace just deepens the economic, demographic and social abyss.
@Putin's agents on Davidski's blog
You only criticize the Ukrainians for defending their country against a foreign threat and emphasize that it will be a failed state (loss of population, loss of economic resources etc), it seems that you want the Ukrainians to stop fighting, and give up their homeland to the Russians. Well, stick with your friend Putin, he is a megalomaniac and a clown, if the Ukrainians (and the Westerners) surrender, then the Baltic countries, Moldova, Finland and the Poles will fall.
Eastern Europeans have learned from the disaster of the Cold War and from being subjugated to the Russians. Only when the Russians have a real democracy will we achieve peace in Europe, meanwhile, the longer the war lasts the greater the ridicule of Putin and his communist friends will be. Putin is a threat to global peace and deserves to end his days in a cold Siberian prison.
We have 200,000 Ukrainians in Spain and they are all eager to return to rebuild their country, we will help them because they deserve it, they just want to be free. Public opinion in the European Union overwhelmingly supports the Ukrainian cause, they are not alone, meanwhile even super-millionaire Russians coming to the beaches of Andalusia are treated as criminals.
Pd- What the hell is wrong with the Slavs, they can't stand each other, at least we westerners have stopped hating each other (I'm talking about Europe, the USA is another thing).
@Coldmountains
Most of all, this war will end very badly for Russia.
Russia must pull out its troops from Ukraine now.
I'm really looking forward to Putin's final "goodwill gesture" later this year, when he finally realizes he has to get the hell out of Ukraine.
Of course, if he does that now many lives will be spared. But unfortunately he wont.
"I'm really looking forward to Putin's final "goodwill gesture" later this year, when he finally realizes he has to get the hell out of Ukraine."
This is a naive option that will never come true. There is actually only one way out of this situation, but I will talk about it at the end. There are two more tactical options for delaying time, rather than solving the problem. Continue hostilities for years or negotiate with Putin based on the existing status quo. Both of these options are possible, but strategically meaningless. The only possible third option is a final solution to the problem, however, for its implementation now there are neither conditions nor an appropriate level of elites either in Russia or in Ukraine, in Europe or in the USA. It is necessary to formulate, declare and implement an agenda designed for the non-aggressive part of society. You can think about options for such an agenda. I would suggest the creation on the basis of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus of a kind of Community pre-European Union under the coordinating role of the EU. Of course, in Ukraine, this will lead to the loss of support for the Zelensky regime by the most motivated part of society - the nationalists. However, in Russia this will allow part of Russian society to oppose the Putin regime without being accused of treason. As long as the agenda is formulated as a victory for one of the parties on the battlefield, the leaders of public opinion will be radicals from the slogans of war to a victorious end. However, it will still have to be negotiated sooner or later, better sooner than later.
@Vladimir
It will happen sooner than you think. The only question is whether it will be an orderly withdrawal or a total collapse of Russian lines.
I'm betting on the latter. Hopefully I'm wrong about that.
The other important question is what will happen in Russia afterwards. But Prigo's attempted coup gave use some clues about that.
As history tells us, coups sometimes need a couple of attempts to work out. Do you know much about the history of Chile?
@Gaska,
What are you on about buddy... Are we off our meds, or merely experimenting with a new strain of cognitive dissonance?
Your claim that CM (or me, whatever "the Putin bots) are criticizing Ukrainians for defending their country is a classic case of the strawman fallacy. My position is, and remains, a critique of the viability of prolonged conflict in Ukraine. It's a matter of strategic evaluation, not personal sentiment. Do try to keep up.
My critique of the Ukrainian situation does not stem from some nefarious allegiance to Putin, but rather a sober acknowledgment of the realities on the ground.
Your postulated solution, that 'real democracy' in Russia would bring peace to Europe, is yet another logical fallacy, this time a non sequitur. While it is undeniably beneficial to have a democratic regime, it doesn't necessarily equate to regional peace.
Your deluded fantasies of Ukrainians in Spain rushing to rebuild their war-torn homeland are touching, but sadly as grounded in reality as a unicorn. It requires more than wishful thinking to rebuild a nation, something Spain could take notes on, given its current predicament.
Now let's talk about Spain for a moment, that's meant to help Ukraine rebuild according to you. The country where youth unemployment is as high as the temperatures, where economic growth moves at the pace of a lazy siesta, and where separatist movements threaten the unity of the country more than a matador threatens a bull. But of course, you’d prefer to pretend those issues don’t exist while weaving fantastical fairy tales about a bright plink future for Ukraine... lol
During my stay in Ireland, the inescapable irony was the sight of university-educated Spaniards serving drinks and cleaning hostels. Now that's what I call optimizing the use of a degree. Perhaps they should add ‘Expert in Irish Whiskeys’ to their CVs?
Your statement on EU public opinion is so laughably reductionist, it barely merits a response. Public opinion isn't a monolithic entity, no matter how convenient it would be for your frail argument if it were.
And then, your pièce de résistance, your ignorant comment about Slavs. The arrogance it takes to insult an entire ethnicity while conveniently ignoring your own country's troubled history with regional animosity is nothing short of breathtaking.
I mean, Spanish Civil War, anyone? How about Catalan and Basque separatism? Or are we pretending those aren’t real issues?
As a final note, I want to emphasize that my comments, which might come off as harsh to some, are nothing more than close observations of the realities on the ground. I have voiced zero support for Putin and, indeed, have openly condemned the invasion as morally wrong in previous posts.
The fact that I consider the Russian regime to be a kleptocracy does not, however, turn a blind eye to the array of problems facing Ukraine, nor does it magically transform it into a model democracy.
@Davidski
I won't try to convince you otherwise. However, if your forecast does not come true by the end of 2023, we will discuss my option on January 2, 2024
It is absolutely appalling to want to stop the supply of arms to Ukraine, which actually will make it an easy prey for such a mafia state as Russia is now.
I know perfectly well what this means. The United Nations (UN) imposed an arms embargo in the conflict in Yugoslavia. This did not affect the Serbian forces supported by the JNA because they had the JNA arsenal at their disposal. And we in Croatia started arming ourselves in the only possible way by smuggling weapons across international borders because our survival was at stake. Our population is less than 4 million and we survived. There's no way Ukraine won't survive with such a big country and a population 10x ours and the entire western world on their side. When the war stops, Ukraine will blossom.
And Russia will only degrade with the continuation of this war. It is a mafia state and internal wars will start sooner or later.
That country will turn into another Afghanistan or become a Chinese colony if you prefer.
The Tsar made a big mistake by invading Ukraine. Instead of strengthening and enlarging the empire, this large morsel began to destroy it from within.
It better stop now or Russia will collapse.
@Davidski
While it is theoretically possible for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, the situation is far more intricate than simply cutting losses.
The ongoing conflict has led to complex political, economic, and social ramifications that cannot be easily undone.
Withdrawal would have implications for the territories that came under Russian control, such as Crimea and the self-proclaimed republics.
Moreover, the costs incurred thus far, including the loss of human lives and financial resources, make a hasty withdrawal less straightforward.
The conflict has entangled both countries and created a multitude of challenges that need to be addressed.
"If you don't believe me, then fine. Wait and see what happens."
A deflection tactic rather than an actual argument.
By the way, I can show you the resolution of a political force that can carry out the following rebellion:
ANGRY PATRIOT CLUB #KRPJune 26, 2023
Political Resolution of the Victory Veche Conference
I. The Club of Angry Patriots represents the interests of the patriotic Russian society, which is being born in the crucible of the new Patriotic War. In our activities, we are guided by two fundamental principles:
1. The national interests of the Russian people and other indigenous peoples of Russia, as well as the interests of the Russian world within its historical borders;
2. Ideals of social justice.
II. We are ready to cooperate with everyone who wishes Russia victory and prosperity.
III. The PKK was created at a turning point, when the course of events presented Russia with an extremely difficult, but inevitable historical task - the complete elimination of the Western geopolitical project "Ukraine". For more than 100 years, this artificial formation has been parasitizing on our lands, poisoning the minds of tens of millions of Russian people, turning them into aggressive Russophobes. The result of this was the transformation of the southwestern Russian lands into a source of constant wars, strife, national and religious hatred.
IV. We are clearly aware that Ukraine will never be pro-Russian, neutral or peaceful. It can only be aggressively Russophobic and misanthropic in its essence. By preserving Ukraine in any form, we are creating a permanent source of threat to the country's strategic security, people and future generations.
V. The "demilitarization", "denazification", and even the inclusion of several regions into the Russian Federation announced by the authorities of the Russian Federation do not solve the main strategic task - the collection of Russian lands, the reunification of the triune Russian people divided by the political storms of the 20th century and ensuring the security of the state. This task will be solved only in one case - the Russian flag must be raised in the mother of Russian cities, Kyiv. And nothing else.
VI. Having failed the 2022 campaign and switched to strategic defense, the Russian military-political leadership has been trying in vain for a year and a half to get out of the war through "peace talks", "goodwill steps" and "grain deals" that are treacherous for the country, the state and the army. Thus, it only demonstrates to the enemy its weakness, lack of understanding of the world agenda, inability and unwillingness to influence current geopolitical processes, and readiness to play by someone else's rules. That is why the enemy over and over again rejects all the proposals of Moscow.
VII. At the same time, those whose assets, capital and political loyalty are in the West remain in power and big business in Russia. They continue to sabotage, express their readiness for direct collusion with the enemy at the expense of another collapse of Russia according to the scenario of February 1917 or December 1991. And as long as the Russian military-political leadership retains these cadres, we cannot hope either to save the country or to win the war.
I think it could have been a staging by Prigozhin, which is typical for a "warlord" to equip his troops even better or to show who is actually in charge in Russia. He already knows such extortionist tactics from his time as a criminal in the mafia. And Russia will definitely not implode as quickly as you think, despite some internal unrest in some republics, the senior partner China will also be careful. NATO does not need to hope too early for a quick end to the war and remember, Russia is one nuclear power ! Unfortunately, the war will continue and as an example of a failed coup attempt / or rather resistance, we know of July 20, 1944, but you can't really compare that because Staufenberg was a man with conscience and Prigoschin is an unscrupulous gangster / warlord, who is more about one's own benefit and dislike/hatred of Shoigu.
@Altvred
You appear to be stuck in a Russian information bubble. I'm seeing this with 99% of my Russian contacts.
My point was that the Ukrainian counteroffensive and subsequent developments are going to be a shock for you.
Wait and see.
@ph2ter
And Russia will only degrade with the continuation of this war. It is a mafia state and internal wars will start sooner or later.
Yep.
@Davidski
"@Coldmountains
It will be a failed state just as dependant from foreign money and help as Afghanistan.
Idiotic comparison."
What comparisons are such and people. You're arguing with Beavis and Butthead's sons. Surprisingly they didn't mention about "conscripted 16-17 aged" :D
It's funny, they declare some kind of ties with Ukraine, and at the same time they compare Ukrainians with Afghans, they saw parallels between Ukraine and WWII Germany :D
They're broadcasting typical Russian narratives. Exaggerating the scale of some actions and events.
One mobilization in Russia per 300,000 can be compared with 12 "waves" of mobilization in Ukraine. But for an already not very good picture, they didn’t mention mobilization in the DPR, LPR, recruitment to Wagner, BARS volunteer battalions (about 85 bat of 400 men each).
Well, indeed, not everyone wants to fight in Ukraine, especially pro-Russian residents. Very often, Hungarians and Gypsies are caught on the border with Europe.
However, in Ukraine there were no such protests against mobilization as were in Russia, especially in Dagestan. About a million men left Russia in a couple of days from mobilization (to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan).
As for the demographic collapse. Then, according to Rosstat, from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, there were almost two million fewer pensioners in Russia!!
The divorce rate is 65%. Russia is among the leaders in abortions. There is a strong depopulation.
On this birthrate picture from the bottom, we see not that big distinction from Russia's side.
And considering the high birthrate among the peoples of the Caucasus, some native Siberians and newly minted citizens from Central Asia, the prospects for Russians are worse than for Ukrainians.
https://sun6-20.userapi.com/impg/5BQ2hd_ryDxgKtpk-PBZoD-97I1A_EH6tp8J2A/hv2pXuLevR4.jpg?size=1261x810&quality=95&sign=43d191647dd823eebedff51c5a405abf&c_uniq_tag=9IOcJg2g38F6kdfFhcN-MJwGQXqwZXzU4ahxv7LpZ8c&type=album
@Putin’s agent-
Calm yourself down, you are overreacting and maybe you are the one who needs to take some meds or better a shot of vodka to forget your sorrows
1-You have taken the hint too soon, reread Sykes' comment talking about the Nazi regime and the gansgters in Kiev. Only a Kremlin agent can say such things.
2-Since you have deep Russian and Ukrainian roots I understand why you are so concerned about the situation, no wonder, hundreds of thousands of people have died or have had to leave their country to flee the war.
3-You say you don't agree with the invasion, although you seem to justify it because “remember that Russia is not the sole player to have overstepped this line in the last century (hint country's name starts with U and ends with A)” You think that if the US invades a country that gives the Russians the right to invade Afghanistan, Syria, Chechnya, Georgia, or Ukraine. Is that what you are trying to say?
4-Speak plainly, who do you think is to blame for the hundreds of thousands killed in the war-Putin? Zelensky?, Ukrainians, Biden, the European Union?, the Westerners for militarily supporting Ukraine?
5-You seem to be wishing for the counter-offensive to fail, what do you think the Ukrainians should do, surrender?, stop fighting?, give up the territories claimed by the Russians?
Dude try to accept that Russia and Putin have violated all UN resolutions by attacking a country with previously established borders, that the Kremlin megalomaniac deserves to be tried for war crimes for attacking the civilian population and that the future of Russia is in the hands of a psychopath who is going to bring ruin to his country. I'm sure your Ukrainian side will thank you for it.
1-Democracy in Russia will bring peace to Europe, that is what everyone hopes and desires. Don't you think it would be good if the Russian people could enjoy for the first time in their history the freedom that first the Czars and then the Communists have stolen from them. If Putin remains in power, they will never be free, they will continue to be afraid of the KGB.
2-I have in my house a Ukrainian mother with two children, she has found a job but wants to return to Mariupol to help rebuild her country. What do you think is wrong?, do you think we should not help them?, No one says it is not difficult to rebuild the nation, but they have the right to try. Do you think they should not go back?, do you think they deserve it for being Nazis and supporters of Zelensky's regime? What do we do with our 200,000 refugees, send them to Siberia?
3-I repeat, public opinion in the European Union is overwhelmingly in favor of the Ukrainian cause, the proof is that more than 5 million refugees have been taken in record time. Everyone appreciates Zelensky's firmness and determination to join the European Union and NATO.
4- You are a weasel, no one is insulting the Slavs, everyone is just surprised at the problems they have with each other. We westerners had problems too, but we have long since turned the page. Maybe it's time for the Slavs to end the wars in Europe. Why do you think that some Slavic countries have joined or want to join the European Union?
Regarding the topics about Spain (unemployment, lazy siesta, economic growth, Civil War, separatism) I was surprised by such a violent reaction, in my opinion your words only show that you hate Spain. It's your problem, I'm not going to waste a minute of my time talking about my country with a bitter ignorant, we are here to talk about the Kremlin psychopath and those who defend him
Pd1-It had been a long time since I had seen an asshole making fun of some students for working abroad and helping their parents pay for university. Didn't you say that we were lazy?
Pd2-Maybe in Russia all the students are millionaires, or maybe Putin doesn't allow them to work as waiters, maybe they prefer to go to war and die so that Putin can finally believe that he is Catherine the Great
Last time I was in Russia things were beautiful. What a frickin' shame. War sucks.
It's truly disappointing that Russian users mainly focus on Zelensky, blaming him for the deaths of Ukrainians in the war, demanding concessions, or debating whether Ukraine is a democratic or failed state. Instead, it would be more decent if the Russian masses prioritized pressuring their own leadership to get the Russian army the f**k out of Ukraine, to at least pre-2022 borders.
The elephant in the room is that people are dying because of the country that invaded them, first and foremost. And if the Ukrainian people were truly against fighting in the war, they would have already removed Zelensky from power, or at least they wouldn't be giving the Russians a hard time even 1 year and a half later.
Yeah, Zelensky was a comedian, but the real clown here is called Vladimir Putin, and his senseless war is proof of that (imagine thinking your own people are naive or stupid enough to believe that Ukraine is led by a drug addict Satanist Nazi Jew lol). If Zelensky had surrendered in 2022 you would have called him a coward, but at the same time if he doesn't surrender he is a criminal causing the death of his own citizens in the war (a war, however, that RUSSIA has caused).
I agree that it is wrong to blame the entire Russian population for the actions of its leadership, but it must be said that the vast majority of the Russian people support this war or at best are indifferent to it. The tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians are also a consequence of the Russian people's passivity toward their government. You are the one who invaded, and as you invaded for no good reason you must leave. Period. I am sorry but the fact that this may have consequences in Russia is not a valid excuse. It is the minimum price you have to pay.
Nothing provokes Russia more than weakness. Making concessions is absolutely wrong because it would send them the message that they can do whatever they want and get away with it, and this would have consequences on other countries as it would legitimize them to commit further crimes elsewhere.
@ RichS
I was in the region 2017. I rocked up to Odessa airport without a visa, thinking Australians coming via EU don't need one. They made me sweat but let me in. Had a good 2 days.
Then a young Ukrainian lad drove me to Moldova across military borders. Turns out both our grandfathers were partisans
Good adventure
@John Smith
Good post. This is a point that I wanted to make myself.
Yeah, Zelensky was a comedian, but the real clown here is called Vladimir Putin, and his senseless war is proof of that (imagine thinking your own people are naive or stupid enough to believe that Ukraine is led by a drug addict Satanist Nazi Jew lol). If Zelensky had surrendered in 2022 you would have called him a coward, but at the same time if he doesn't surrender he is a criminal causing the death of his own citizens in the war (a war, however, that RUSSIA has caused).
@Spanked; thanks for the mention. At this point it seems like there are a couple root issues. Firstly, ancient dna publications are moving at a slower pace and talking about things at conferences years before publishing, rather than using pre-prints. Secondly, with much bigger data, it's harder for people to wring quick and interesting insights out of it, without large amounts of computation (things like using imputatation to reconstruct haplotypes, or systematically testing qpGraphs). So there's just not much to talk about - if I had a blog (which probably would've been a good idea in the past but only to keep track of what I'd thought about things), then would've found not much to say on it.
(Specifically on Razib Kan's output, he seems to have become more embittered about having open discussions with people on the net as he feels he's been mistreated in academia, by the press and by online trolls. So he's doing more for pay articles that integrate well-known population genetics findings that are almost copy-pasted from the paers with his knowledge of history, and has refocused on right wing politics (which he does in closed groups as far as I can tell from his social media) and his family. There's an audience for that, but not much cop for population genetics nerds (we've read the papers already).)
...
As for Ukraine I think: This war will end up in some form of not total conclusive victory. Ukraine will become an agricultural and resource exporter to EU that does have a smaller population. However also Ukrainian people will be better off from opportunities abroad and that EU will help lower corruption and increase military defence. I don't see it becoming a war-torn place of endemic low level tribalism of theocracy like Afghanistan at all, or ethnic "Balkanization", that seems extremely unlikely (largely ethnically homogenous, no substantial religious or ideological fault lines, no cousin-marriage clans, Russian language faultlines as an issue of minority rights seem to have been discredited by the actions of the Russian state).
Even if the war ends incompletely (as in incomplete explusion of the Russian state or proxy states from the territory of Ukraine), seems likely (70-80% ish) to be a success in: 1) Frustrating Putin's notion of uniting all the peoples of the Kievan Rus under one union, 2) make it clear to Russians that any notions of having a military and cultural sphere that is separate from China and the EU (and notions of greatness and destiny and so on) are implausible and to render it implausible for Putin to maintain popularity by promising such to the Russian people, 3) get Russia back to being an exporter of resources, technical human capital and consumption to China and Europe (where the advanced goods and services will actually be made), 4) disabuse persons in the West of the notion that being tough, brutal and traditional is what makes an army strong rather than discipline, organisation, technology, resources and patriotism (turns out that mercenary armies of gangster criminals who fight for gold and the opportunity to rape and torture are not the most reliable and loyal! who knew? maybe the baddest, toughest, nastiest b***ards aren't actually the best soldiers, or even much good at all...), 5) significantly remilitarize Europe and rebuild its energy independence.
I'm not a geopolitical or economic analyst so maybe this contains some "vibes" and secondhand basic news, and it won't be like that. YMMV.
@Altvred,
You have to understand a few lines.
Firstly, that Russia, with its aggression and atrocities, has created a situation for Ukraine with no way out but war. After the attack, Putin announced that the war would not end; he announced the necessity of eliminating national tendencies and the complete liquidation of Ukraine's independence, and simply purging Ukraine of national human and mental elements. Do you know what that means? Total and ruthless Russification, as we already know from history. The liquidation of human elements that think differently, resistant, and especially "stained" by their involvement in the current defense of the country. Apart from shooting, I see prisons for the less committed, lifelong deportations to Vorkuta, Kolyma and the swamps of the Siberian taiga, and a lot of resettlements!!.
Don't you understand why the vast majority of the world is on the side of Ukraine and bears the cost of defending it, without even hoping for reciprocity?
Secondly, imperial aggression is in Russia's and most Russians' blood. Ukraine was supposed to be just a small episode of this drug rush. Putin spelled it out as his plan: to reclaim Stalin's empire. The rest was described by advisers to Putin: Dugin and Yuriev and others through repeated statements and publications. It has already been written what is to happen to Poland and the Baltic states... It has been written what is to happen to the entire EU Europe... Why, for what?
What nations did the greedy tsarist and post-tsarist imperialim make happy?
How is the standard of living
How about the health of nations, how about the length of life, especially for men? (Don't blame alcohol alone; it's a symptom of the disaster rather than the cause!).
There's a tonne of data although only ~ 30% of its capacity has been utilised. We know the big picture, but even that sometimes needs some modifications. For example, putting aside all the discussion of steppe origins which most like to focus on, there are questions like - how did the Italics arrive ? How did Celtic form ? Where did Kura-Araxes form ? What is "TRB", how does it related to Early Farmers and later GAC ? etc
This and incremental new data represents years of analysis to be done. That front is at least positive
@StP
yes Dugin is a sick man and he wants a Greater Russia and Poland met as a catholic country doesn't exist at all and Germany only as a whore of Russia ... just some of his perfidious statements, but the Ukrainians are not children of sadness either, I'm just saying the massacre in Volhynia and East Galicia as if you should always see two sides of the coin (I always see many things objectively), I can only say one thing, I hope the war will end soon. and the statement that the Russians have the Imperial in their blood is a bit weak, it is due to the wrong policy and also to external political influences and people have always had an urge to expand!
Is this spreadsheet still maintained?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wZr-UOve0KUKo_Qbgeo27m-CQncZWb8y/view?pli=1
I suggest adding a few averages that would significantly improve the experience when using Global 25:
West Norwegian average.
East Norwegian average.
More regional German averages.
More regional Polish averages.
Sorry for the off-topic, but I know no place other than this blog where this issue can be addressed.
@BloggerSteppe
You write that my statement that the Russians have an imperialist spirit in their blood is "a little weak".
Well, I will give such experiences from participation in a certain Russian forum of genetic genealogy, probably many participated in it.
This forum served (probably by design) almost only the R1a haplogroup.
Initially, I felt good there, because there was a spirit of brotherhood and kindness (I did not know its background at the time).
Once, a discussion about Stalin, his great intelligence, great decisions, etc., etc., developed there, led by a professor we know.
I replied: “Stalin was rather stupid, because if he had been thinking and wise, he would not have committed such genocide by murdering the Polish military, police and civilian intelligentsia in Katyn in 1940 y, as if on the eve of the expected trial with the Germans. After all, it was possible to use these tens of thousands of well-prepared people to organize the troops fighting in Germany.
- Poland deserved the Katyn punishment! Stalim was right and justified in punishing Poland, because Poles should see what the laws of the imperial state are, that they should be subordinate to and obey their elder brother, the professor replied.
_ Yes? I asked, and who gave Russia any imperial rights over Poland? What codes assign such rights to imperial countries?... Etc...etc...
From then on, the discussion became less and less cordial…
Finally, the administrator of the portal, seeing the atmosphere deteriorating, decided to announce and accelerate the implementation of his hidden plan before it is too late.
So he announced a proposal for our joint appeal, something like this:
“- We are representatives of the genetic haplogroup R1a, one bloodline... widely dispersed in many European countries. But we have been hurt, because we have been divided by hostile state borders, which makes it difficult for us to lead family life in friendship and harmony....
- So we ask the Supreme Council of the Russian Federation to take a decision on the liquidation of these borders, artificially and against human laws tearing us apart our line ...
- Our signatures...
………………………………
The administrator asked for signatures.
After a few days he declared:
- Since no one has signed this petition, the case is closed.
………………………….
Soon after, it turned out that our huge and famous portal of genetic genealogy was closed; for he became a useless servant of the imperialization of genetic families, calculated on the model of the idea of the old tsarist Pan-Slavism.
There is no trace of this forum today.
……
To this day I cannot understand why there were no signatures (maybe someone remembers differently). After all, this spontaneous Russian imperialism was visible on many sides and topics of discussion on this forum. It must have been a coincidence, because the political votes in Russia, the results of international polls, and participation in the aggression against Ukraine unequivocally reveal in Russia people confirmation and appreciation for the Russian imperialism.
This was is horrible for Europe. Industries all over Germany & Sweden have closed down due to the sanctions, and Europe has become even more of a bannana republic to USA & EU federalists & globalists like Klaus Schwab
Russia will probably decline even further, and become more dependent on China & the Gulf States.
Probably all part of the pre-amble to a massive confrontation between USA/ NATO & China.
Historically, this looks like unresolved tensions from the Polish-Lithuanian vs Moscovy command for regional control also playing out, failed nation-building, and problems of post War territorial borders. In the 90s (when the Yugo wars were heating up), there were people in Ukraine warning of future possible conflict due to the unresolved of the question of Russian people in Ukraine & their status.
@Rolling Eyes
There are relatively few samples available for this type of project.
Regional groups from European countries are especially hard to come by.
I use what I can.
speaking of Ukraine, it would be very interesting to see what ~ 18th century Cossaks of the Hetmanate look lik genetically. Apaprently they were Orthodox East Slavs fleeing the Grand Duchy toward the steppe + other renegades +/- Turkic admixture ?
@ StP
yes, such forums are really not in order and disgusting, Stalin was only afraid of the Polish intelligentsia if there was an uprising in occupied eastern Poland, which would certainly be the case! Nationalists with a dash of racism are present everywhere, regardless of ethnic group, and are also present, for example, among Germans, Russians, Poles, Ukrainians... It depends on the character of a person, such forums can be found all over the world. There is also a healthy national pride without prejudice against others, I give an example about my Polish grandfather who was a proud Pole and served with the Uhlans but got along with many ethnic groups and also helped Jews during the German occupation in Kraków and from 1944-45 in Germany had been on forced labor and met a great Bavarian family and when he returned to Poland in 1945 he also helped the Germans to escape and even made friends with Russian soldiers who were enthusiastic about watches because some came from areas of the Soviet Union and some of them didn't knew. later he married my German grandmother (a few Germans stayed). He wanted a sovereign Poland but had no problems with other ethnic groups and at the end of the 70s he came to Germany but only because of my grandmother, because he loved his homeland and before his death in 1989 he said that the wall would fall faster than one thinks and 6 months later the time had come and he also said that the world no longer had any orderly structures afterwards and that open borders are not always an advantage either, the balance of powers also came to an end with that. He had had a really hard life, wanted to study art in Kraków but in the Generalgouvernement it was a harbinger for the Poles and during the German occupation he had to be careful all the time, as he once told me he had forgotten his ID card and you could quickly mistake him for being a Jew, too because of his thick black hair ( at that time there was no DNA and phenotypic one was often stamped) and during the time of the People's Republic of Poland from 1947 his company was often closed by communists ( own company as master painter ) when there were political upheavals or more profit was made.
What I actually want to say it has nothing to do with the origin but with the character of a person or with wrong politics.
@Rob
The level of autonomy and independence enjoyed by countries like Poland and Hungary, which are part of both NATO and the EU, is something you can only dream of under a regime tied to Russia like Belarus. This doesn't mean that there aren't power dynamics at play, but considering all of them indiscriminately as puppet countries of the USA is clearly an exaggeration. Klaus Schwab is just a meme, let him eat ze bugs in peace.
As for China, they're not foolish enough to engage in a war with the USA over Taiwan. It would have disastrous effects on the economies of both countries, not to mention that the most productive regions of China are located near the island. When you hear Xi Jinping talking about bringing Taiwan back home, you're primarily hearing a speech meant for domestic "propaganda" purposes, aiming to present China as a powerful nation on par with the USA in the eyes of its citizens. Xi wants China to be considered a great power of equal dignity to the USA in the eyes of the world. Xi may be a dictator, but he's not as foolish as Putin.
@Davidski
"You appear to be stuck in a Russian information bubble. I'm seeing this with 99% of my Russian contacts."
For what it's worth, I'm an American. Have you ever considered it might be you that's in a CIA/MI6 information bubble?
@altvred
"While it is theoretically possible for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, the situation is far more intricate than simply cutting losses. "
Russia withdrew from around Kyev, around Kharkov and around Kherson. They are fortifying the entry to Crimea. You'll be surprised where it is theoretically possible they might withdraw to next time.
@RobertN
The facts are clear over here in the free world, so there's no need to be stuck in any information bubbles, especially if you're American.
Russia invaded Ukraine to rob it blind, because there wasn't much left to steal at home. See that's what Russia did in the Donbass over the last decade. Even Russian patriots like Igor Girkin and Yevgeny Prigozhin admit this openly.
Russia's next targets were the Baltic states, and if that worked out, Poland.
So we're lucky that Ukraine has been courageous and organized enough to stop Russia, because otherwise there would be a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
And considering how courageous and organized Ukraine has been, calling it a failed state and a future European version of Afghanistan is quite bizarre.
@Davidski said: „Russia invaded Ukraine to rob it blind, because there wasn't much left to steal at home /…/ Russia's next targets were the Baltic states, and if that worked out, Poland. So we're lucky that Ukraine has been courageous and organized enough to stop Russia /…/”
Poland was so brave and organized in 1920, when the Russian general Tukhachevsky with his troops even approached Warsaw with the slogan: Over the corpses of Poland - to the world revolution.
In the last decades, Poland, deceived by Russia and the powers that our security is guaranteed and that there are no more aggressors, unfortunately disarmed itself (just like EU Europe).
According to Yuriev, in the book "Russia as it should be" (i.e. in 2053), a book that Putin (as stated in a journalistic interview) reads "to the pillow", Poland was to be attacked and swallowed by Russia as the first (already 2019 .), and after Poland, it's time for the Balts and Ukraine. But Ukraine, fortunately for us, confused these plans of Russia….
……
Why am I so interested in this topic?
See an old English-Russian movie: "Lost in Siberia" (in several languages). It is a fictional film, but based on a fact.
The hero of the story is a vicariously distinguished archaeologist, who was reported by local Russian informers as a spy for the shah of Iran. He was sentenced to death, but temporarily sent to hard labor in Siberia. The film scares us with descriptions of the actions of stupid bureaucrats, terrible treatment of prisoners at work and in transport, and ends with Moscow revealing that it was a mistake, because an innocent and distinguished archaeologist was sentenced. The authorities want to save him as soon as possible (as usual in Russia "good tsarist power, but only bad officials"), but in Kolyma everything is already prepared to carry out the sentence ... so it cannot be changed. Left in shackles in the 30-degree frost, N. turns into an ice effigy, and the guard shoots him with bullets. Yes movie.
And the truth is this. After the Russian army entered Poland in September 1939, the two NN brothers from my distant family were abducted by the Russians. One of them escaped, reached England and organized a long-lasting search for his brother, possibly missing somewhere in Siberia. The English helped, and the idea for the film was born against this background.
When I found out about everything a dozen or so years ago, I started searching the Russian Internet for the unique Polish surname of this missing man. I found a nice schoolgirl in a marshy area near Novosibirsk; her name has become famous on the Internet, because she won some supra-regional painting competition. And her grandfather was found, the son of that "lost in Siberia", still living in the harsh terrain of tajga under the famous Bracka Dam on the Siberian Angara River.
There was a lot of tears and emotions!
@RobertN
"Have you ever considered it might be you that's in a CIA/MI6 information bubble?"
Most assessments done on the internet are entirely independent, and try to make their case by using *Russian* sources. If you do that, an overall image emerges that does not massively differ from what Western MSM presents.
Daviski, stop being so prim about Ukraine's "internationally recognized borders", as if Ukraine had been traditionally sovereign. Russia showed unprecedented magnanimity in letting every "republic" detach themselves from the Soviet Union, all of which had been part of Imperial Russia prior to that.
Who else watches more than half their population, their western flank,and more than a million square miles just go away?
The arrangement was okay—and Putin tolerated it—if Russians left behind the lines in swollen Ukraine and Latvia were respected by their newfound countrymen.
Besides, would you like continental Europe to again recognize Poland's "internationally recognized borders" of 1795-1918? They were revised only by dint of outside tyrants Wilson, Clemençeau and Lloyd-George.
@Spy
There's no reason to go back to 1795-1918.
That's because Poland's borders are internationally recognized, including by Russia.
The borders of the current Ukrainian state were recognized by everyone, including by Russia, until Russia invaded.
So now Russia has to leave. It's the right thing to do and the best thing for Russia too.
If Russia doesn't leave now, then tens of thousands of Russian soldiers will die for nothing, because Russia will be forced out sooner or later.
Spy said....
Russia showed unprecedented magnanimity in letting every "republic" detach themselves from the Soviet Union, all of which had been part of Imperial Russia prior to that.
What is an empire? Is the Empire a subject of international law? Is an empire allowing its neighbors to be independent the fruit of "imperial magnanimity"?
Did the genocidal murder of thousands of Poles in Katyn result from the laws of the imaginary power of the empire over the Polish state conquered by the German-Russians?
@Davidski “
So now Russia has to leave. It's the right thing to do and the best thing for Russia too.
If Russia doesn't leave now, then tens of thousands of Russian soldiers will die for nothing, because Russia will be forced out sooner or later.”
I’m with you 100%. What do you think about the veracity of reports claiming that the Russians are masterminding a (in effect) dirty bomb in Zappo?
@Spy
True or false, all of this is of very little relevance. Have you ever heard of the Budapest Memorandum? The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated in 1994, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and addressed the issue of nuclear weapons present in Ukraine following the collapse of the Soviet bloc. Under the agreement, Ukraine agreed to relinquish its inherited nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union, which included intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads. In exchange for giving up nuclear weapons, the other signatory countries of the memorandum (the United States, RUSSIA, United Kingdom, France, and China) provided assurances to Ukraine regarding its security and emphasized their commitment to RESPECTING UKRAINE'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY AND INDEPENDENCE.
@Andrzejewski
Yes, I think those reports are correct. So unfortunately there's a decent chance that, once the Ukrainian army breaks through Russian defenses in the region, Russia will sabotage the nuclear plant.
@ Davidski
Let's examine the fact so far; Who destroyed the oil pipeline, Who destroywed the Damn off Crimea, creating an evironmental catastrophe ?
The only dirty people here so far have been the CIA, Zelenski & his cousins over in USA (Nuland & the like)
@Rob
Nice satire there.
It's even funnier when we recall that one of Russia's primary goals in this war was to demilitarize Ukraine.
Now Ukraine probably has the best army in Europe, with around 40K or more highly motivated volunteers spearheading its counteroffensive.
And no, nobody claimed that the Budapest Memorandum was null and void, because there were no grounds for such a claim. Russia just ignored it, like they ignore any international agreements and laws that don't suit them at any given moment.
“Now Ukraine probably has the best army in Europe”
Fantastic news. Lockheed / Martin share price must be peaking
You’re entitled to your opinion, but don’t aim against Mother Nature
It is fantastic news, because it means Ukraine can defend itself from Russia, which also means that Russia doesn't have the resources for a direct confrontation with NATO.
Security comes with a big price tag.
But if Ukraine was as well armed back in 2021 as it is today Russia wouldn't dare invade it. That would've been a bargain considering the costs of this war.
@Rob
“@ Davidski
Let's examine the fact so far; Who destroyed the oil pipeline, Who destroywed the Damn off Crimea, creating an evironmental catastrophe ?
The only dirty people here so far have been the CIA, Zelenski & his cousins over in USA (Nuland & the like)
Whatever was agreed upon in 1994 becomes null & void if the alleged ''Ukraine government'' is sold out to USA & handed over the Black Sea to NATO. That's clearly a breach of 'cordial understanding'
They've now crucified their own people. Sound like a royal bunch of scum bags, IMO
There is no Ukrainain army anymore, Its just English, German, Croatian & Polish merceneries getting thieir ass blown up
@ John Smith
Yes I know the Chinese are sensible. I can’t say the same about Usa. Evangelical -Zionists and morally bankrupt.
They can’t accept the fact that they’re on the decline, although they were never great in the first place, merely parasitically profiteering and manipulating the petrodollar. Now they’re on the way out, but they believe that Jesus is gonna Land in Utah again & the four Horsemen will save them.”
I completely agree with you, and much more I’d have to say, but that wouldn’t pass the Dave’s gates.
When I was a teacher of History I was against URSS and Katyn always was an argument of my lessons, but I would speak now about the illusion of Poles who are open to the Ukrainian profugees but think to keep out the others. Their “Europe” will destroy them too.
@Gio
Nice shilling there. Here's a ruble. Buy yourself something nice.
@ Gio. Times change and so does what’s wrong/ right. Seems a couple of people here are still having gulag flashbacks instead of facing what’s real
Is Russia going to steal latvias amber and sell it to the Romans?
Nice story Dave .
@Rob
As we all know Gulags are back in business in Russia.
If Ukraine didn't fight back, they'd be doing a roaring trade right now and filled to the brim with Ukrainians.
Balts and Poles were next in line.
@Rob
Latvians have indoor toilets and even washing machines.
So they were going to steal their indoor toilets and put them in their outdoor gulags ?
@Rob
You know as well as I do that the Baltic states have done very well for themselves after leaving the USSR.
You also know that Latvia would turn into a total shit hole in a matter of weeks if it was overrun again by Russia.
@Davidski
“Nice shilling there. Here's a ruble. Buy yourself something nice”.
In Italian we say to look at the finger and not at the moon beyond! You speak of one shilling or one ruble, but Zelens’kij sold the moon (14 million hectares) to BlackRock and other similiar “American” funds
@Gio
Zelensky will be remembered as a hero in Ukraine for generations to come.
So will the men and women of the Ukrainian armed forces who are fighting in this war, which is basically the war of independence for Ukraine.
@ Davidski
Seen that you came from that area, hope that you know not only Zelens'kij and the others but also Koloimis'kij...
@Gio
See that's why I know some things about Russia that you refuse to admit.
You should move there for a while. That'll sober you up.
@ Dave - I'm not advocating the merits of Communism or making economic forecasts. I agree with what you say mostly, but its never black & white.
@Rob
The EU went out of its way to help and appease Russia.
Russia made billions, maybe trillions, from this relationship as the biggest exporter of gas and oil to the EU.
On the other hand, Ukraine was told to put up and shut up. No one wanted to give or even sell any serious weapons to Ukraine before the invasion.
And yet Russia managed to screw this up, because they wanted some land back even though Russia is already the largest country on the planet and practically had Crimea anyway.
NATO wasn't a threat to Russia. It was actually a guarantee that Russia wouldn't do anything stupid and hurt itself.
If Ukraine had been in NATO, Russia wouldn't have attacked it and instead still getting trillions from the EU.
Don't care if either country disappears from the map, however I looked up some stats for context.
Russia's inflation rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi
Down to pre-war levels and generally low, especially compared to Europe
Russia's GDP
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp
Up to pre-war levels and apparently growing
So Russia looks fine, with China's and the rest of the non-western world's (AKA most of the world) help, and can keep this going basically forever (until the last Ukrainian). What's interesting is, why? One explanation is Putin's approval rates being greatly boosted compared to just a few years ago:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/
It also gives him the opportunity to go after any opposition and disloyal elites. At the same time China, that has absorbed whatever deals the West ceased (although the West generally still trades for billions with Russian companies like in the past) and has made new ones with Russia too, also benefits from this since America and its major allies [read: property] in Europe are economically weakened and their citizens displeased, with cohesion being reduced even more etc etc
Russians could just vacuum bomb everything and end this now (there was a glimpse of that with Surovikin) but apparently that's not profitable. Eventually though Ukraine will run out of men and Russians seem to be pretty aware of attempts by Americans and the English to fuck this forecast up, e.g. the failed Kazakhstan color revolution a while back. The failed color revolution in Iran too, but this was mostly against Iran itself. And Russian government is highly invested in this now since losing in any way means severe reduction of their geopolitical power, NATO expanding etc, and Putin's approval rates among not only the people but also elites plummeting. So it'll probably just be a boring grind, which also profits any copium/hopium-selling grifters involved in covering the conflict, with the arms industries involved raking in most of the profits. Nothing out of the ordinary
lol vacuum bomb without air superiority over Ukraine.
Maybe with giant sling shots you moron.
If the Russians really did have concerns about the treatment of Russian speakers in East Ukraine, or about ultra-nationalist ideologies in Ukraine (the so called "Nazis") that are hostile to Russian traditions of multi-culturalism and ethnic mixing with Siberians, Cauasians and Central Asians and the influence of prominent Russian Jews among Russia's elite (which Russians generally regard as good and positive about their country and the Russian state tends to promote) ... then what would've made these concerns more credible would surely be to try and use global institutions like the UN (which the Russians, including Comical Lavrov, supposedly support) to further international inspections to establish if there are these violations of human rights in those territories.
But look at what happened. They jumped instead to sending "Little Green Men" across the borders to establish breakaway republics, conveniently enough after decisively losing attempts to gain influence in the country by the game of corruption and money (which Russia and the US have been playing, no doubt). Now this unilateral invasion on some trumped up, ever-changing pretext that they can never get straight (that Ukraine was preparing to attack Russia or something). And there is a history of this imperial rhetoric and believing Russia should have a more powerful place in the world than it currently does (and something more like the post WWII apex of its power, clearly gone forever), and now this strange historical thesis about how Ukraine should be part of Russia due to their shared origin in Kyivan Rus (despite everything that happened before and after). With all this it is hard to take it credible that it is really about these concerns. And more so if you (Putin) have a history of political assassination and presiding over a country which despite every advantage in human capital (well educated population on paper) and natural resources has been in relative decline for a long time and you need to bring some victory triumph parade home to distract from this.
There are some different thoughts about the impact of the current war on Russia's GDP - it's possible that some elements might expand reflecting a "war economy" and also there is no clear information on the statistics that the Russians will be providing and whether they overstate economic growth. Views on the impact of sanctions may be as follows - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/ - in May 2023, WB, IMF and OECD all estimated a decline in total GDP although there is the "fog of war".
We will only know about this after inflation slows to the point that clearly established PPP can be used and objective metrics (night time lights etc) can be brought to bear on Russia's economy, and as Russia restores a "normal economy" where certain kinds of production that will inflate GDP are not included.
Russian GDP is smoke and mirrors.
And the only way Russia can destroy Ukraine is with nuclear weapons, which is about as realistic as Russia destroying the USA in the same way.
Russia can't bomb Ukraine because its planes get shot down as soon as they come within 50 km of the border/front line.
The best Russia can do is what it's doing now; sending a few missiles that it still manages to produce and some drones. And 90% + of this gets shot down.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jul/02/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-launches-first-overnight-drone-strike-on-kyiv-in-12-days?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-64a0cf568f08d551cf54be74#block-64a0cf568f08d551cf54be74
One of the odd things thinking back about the sanctions is that when they were stepped up in March 2022, there was this idea of:
"Oh, the Westerners claim these sanctions are targeted, but they are actually trying to attack the common Russian people through imposing these, make them suffer and so make the government fall!"
And now if the sanctions aren't actually hurting consumption of basic goods and services among the Russian people much (although it remains to be seen how true that is, after the fog of war subsides) there seems to be this kind of response "The sanctions failed!" rather than just believing that they were targeted not to do that anyway. Maybe the sanctions actually were somewhat effectively targeted towards oligarchs, towards decoupling Europeans from Russia capital and resources and limiting Russia's ability to source weapon components after all, while minimizing collateral damage? (But that doesn't fit the narrative of "flailing American incompetence").
@ Davidski
“If Ukraine had been in NATO, Russia wouldn't have attacked it and instead still getting trillions from the EU”.
I don’t know if your theories on genetics will win. It seems to me that they are more and more failing (the origin of R1b and Indo-European languages are more and more westernmost day by day, but anyway I consider positive that you became anti-Harvardians as someone before you was), but certainly your positions about History are failing before you began to speak.
If Ukraine entered the NATO (that many of us consider a criminal organization), just for the criminal article 5, Ukrainians would have been free to annihilate all Russian speaking and Russians in the hart without that Russia could make anything. For that Russia invaded Ukraine, and be certain, it won’t end good for Ukraine, the same England and US, and some country in the Levant.
@Davidski “NATO wasn't a threat to Russia. It was actually a guarantee that Russia wouldn't do anything stupid and hurt itself.”
I’m with you on this, but didn’t Gorbachev feel cheated when George H. W. Bush tricked him to agree for German reunification and the dissolution of the “Warsaw Pact” military organization in exchange for a pledge of “not one inch”, namely NATO being frozen in its 1990 borders.
I also, as an “America First” Trump supporter, remember how the neocons, globalists, RINO’s and “cuckservatives” invaded Iraq under a false pretense of “WMD”, and how many US and allied troops’s casualties tallied (>5,000 dead, 25,000 wounded), $3T of US taxpayers money wasted so that Cheney and Haliburton make money.
And now, all these warmongers, who have never sent their own offsprings to die for greed, have shifted to the backbone of the establishment Democratic Party, and they are blindsiding and gaslighting the American public about Ukraine, and now China v. Taiwan.
The Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party along with the Trumpist flank of the GOP are marginalized (on every front, including economically) by the uniparty system Deep State.
What the US government is all about is to impose woke ideas of Greta Thunberg environmentalism, LGBTQ agenda etc coupled with neocon expansionism all over the world a-la- The Project of a New American Century, but with a fierce rubber baron capitalism: abortion should be legal at all costs, but god forbid someone can’t pay $300,000 towards surgery. Feed the military-prison-industrial complex, but not the hungry. Rescue all the “too big to fail” banks but preach capitalism to someone else.
Beat on China all you want but trust that country to buy your $32T (and rising) unsustainable debt.
So bottom line, the narrative of the Deep State is not to be taken at face value. And for once, I see my government as feeling like they’re stronger than god, that nothing could ever defeat it.
That’s why I’m not buying their PR spin on Ukraine or any story. The Deep State needs to shrink to what the original Founding Fathers envisioned, the US needs to finally mind its own business, rampant capitalism should be reined in, and cocky Biden needs to be impeached.
@Andrzejewski
There's no PR spin.
It is what it is; Russia invaded a country for no good reason that had security and territorial guarantees, including from Russia itself.
The countries that signed this agreement are now obliged to help Ukraine. And even if they didn't sign it they're still obliged to help Ukraine, because Ukraine was invaded for no good reason.
This war is a disaster for Russia as well. Russia is now a pariah state with a bleak future.
If Ukraine was in NATO, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine and it would still be seen as a relatively normal country.
@andrzejewski: US external debt is $7.3T, or 23% of public debt (the majority is domestic; debt you owe yourselves). China holds 11.6% of that external debt, so in total holds about 2.7% of US debt in total.
China invests in some US debt because this diversifies its holdings, and the US is considered to be very low risk (if you look at the economic record).
This narrative where China hold large shares of US debt and essentially somehow finances the US to buy products from China, almost propping the US up and with the US dependent on it (and China doesn't cut the US out for some reason), is probably a false narrative.
There was more truth in that narrative back circa the late Bush and early Obama years, but even then China was not as large in this picture as supposed and it's no longer the case - https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/. To the degree debt is held by foreigners, this has shifted to other countries for various reasons that probably boil down in part to foreign exchange rates.
Spy said...
1)Daviski, stop being so prim about Ukraine's "internationally recognized borders", as if Ukraine had been traditionally sovereign. Russia showed unprecedented magnanimity in letting every "republic" detach themselves from the Soviet Union, all of which had been part of Imperial Russia prior to that.
2) Besides, would you like continental Europe to again recognize Poland's "internationally recognized borders" of 1795-1918? They were revised only by dint of outside tyrants Wilson, Clemençeau and Lloyd-George.
…
Ad 1) What "Russian magnanimity" - allowing the republics to secede?
After all, Putin himself, on the eve of the war with Ukraine, called this permission a great fraud of the previous authorities of Stalinist Russia- piar for the world. It was a wink of a false knowing eye. In fact, there was total subjugation of the republics!
Ad 2) After one hundred or two hundred years of borders, we do not want them to change. The nation is not cattle whose fence is moved from time to time by a shepherd so that it can eat again. Russia is used to constant punitive resettlement, but democratic nations - not!
@Andrzejewski
1) Rather than a promise, there was actually only a verbal assurance or informal agreement not to expand eastward, but this was never formalized nor had any binding value. No official declaration was signed, nor were there any written agreements prohibiting future expansions.
2) The "expansion" (which is actually enlargement) only became a reality in 1999, when the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact had already been dissolved for several years. This means that the countries of Eastern Europe were free to choose autonomously whether or not to join NATO without being accountable to anyone, including Russia.
3) No, Gorbachev did not dissolve the Warsaw Pact as a result of a promise made to Bush not to expand NATO, nor was he "tricked" by Bush regarding German reunification. These events occurred for completely different reasons.
4) Russia considers NATO a threat simply because it puts a brake on its military expansion in Eastern Europe.
Each country can freely join pacts and international organisations in accordance with its interests.
Russia has no jurisdiction over the countries of the former Soviet Union or Imperial Russia. There is no such thing in international law.
The NATO pact is a defence alliance and has no pretensions towards Russia.
Nobody tricked Russia. Simply, in that time Russia was unable to stop unification of Germany or NATO 'expansion'. Actually Russia tricked Ukraine by signing the Budapest memorandum.
On the other hand, we all in Europe watched the American invasion of Iraq without sympathy or approval. It was already in the beginning clear that this intervention was not justified.
But Ukraine is completely different case and have nothing in common with Iraq.
The whole European security structure is at risk and USA simply cannot "mind its own business", because if it leaves Ukraine to Russia, America's core interests will come into question sooner, or later with much bigger cost.
America does not live in an isolated bubble and cannot pretend that Europe is not its business.
@Andrzejewski
"I also, as an “America First” Trump supporter, remember how the neocons, globalists, RINO’s and “cuckservatives” invaded Iraq"
The invading party this time is Russia. Which is kind of relevant in sorting out who is to blame. This is in some ways the Russian equivalent of the Iraq disaster, with the difference that Russia didn't roll over Ukraine and therefore is even deeper in shit now.
@ Andrze - yep, early values
@ph2ter: actually I think though, while America cutting and running, right now, would be bad here, there's a case for Europe taking this one forward in the longer term more independently of the US. That would cut through the Russian rhetoric about America's partners being subordinates, and is anyway more in line with some of the semi-hostile "First Among Equals" claims that some in the US throw Europeans way (calling them military freeloaders who should shut up). And also America is likely to be an inconstant partner due to the isolationist and domestic policy concerned turn of the Republican Party. So it just makes sense.
@epoch, one idea I heard about this war is that Putin specifically intended all the rhetoric around "militarizing Ukraine" which was used as a trumped up excuse to invade, was specifically meant to be parallel to Iraq, in order to show that Russia was a peer of the USA and could get away with invading countries based on false "Weapons of Mass Destruction" claims. That he knew it was all false but "The Americans got away with it, so why can't I, as we're just as important a country?"
Whether it's true or not, what the world's superpower (or perhaps now one of two superpowers) can do with a dictatorial and genocidal regime that's not even liked and supported by Arab states in its region and which has almost no international support is far from what a regional power can get away with against a democracy that's the buffer between it and the region that's, depending on how you count it, the second or third strongest economic bloc in the world.
The only thing Ukrainians and Iraqis have in common is being invaded by a country far more powerful than theirs for no good reason. That being said, Ukraine is NOT like Iraq and has nothing in common with Iraq. Ukraine is not an oppressive dictatorship, did not invade Iran and Kuwait, and did not exterminate the Kurds.
Regarding the Russian language in Ukraine, it was not solely spoken in the eastern part of the country. The number of people using the Russian language at home in Ukraine significantly surpasses those who declared Russian as their mother tongue in the census. Russian is used at home by 43-46% of the country's population (in other words, a proportion similar to Ukrainian). Additionally, a 2012 study showed that 60% of songs on the radio, over 60% of newspapers, 83% of magazines, and 87% of books were in Russian. Furthermore, 80% of websites in Ukraine are in the Russian language, and the Russian version of Wikipedia is five times more popular than the Ukrainian version, and so on.
% of people who indicated they speak Russian at home according to the survey of the sociological service "Rating" from September 6 to October 10, 2019 in regional centers:
https://i.imgur.com/3hRRe5H.png
The true "culprit" of Ukraine was to have prohibited an official bilingual system at the state level. Obviously, this doesn't justify even 1% of what Russia has done to Ukraine. In much of Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian speakers are not different ethnicities, and there is a certain degree of bilingualism and blending between the two languages. Unironically, the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine since 2014 only serves to distance Ukrainians from any desire to have dealings with Russia. They wanted to crush the Ukrainian national sentiment, but instead, Moscow is strengthening it like never before.
@Davidski
"If Ukraine didn't fight back, they'd be doing a roaring trade right now and filled to the brim with Ukrainians.
Balts and Poles were next in line."
Balts and Poles who are part of NATO? Sure. Sounds like you're the one doing the shilling for Nuland, Sullivan, and the whole neo-con crew trying to implement the latest edition of Mackinder's geostrategic vision for the heartland.
@Davidski
"Zelensky will be remembered as a hero in Ukraine for generations to come."
When Ukraine loses, he'll flee to Israel or the U.S. and go down in history as the American puppet who sold out Ukraine for the benefit of western globohomo.
@Matt
Interesting take! Russia presented their involvement in Syria on TV as the US presented its Iraq wars, with images and flicks of "smart bombs" zooming in on their targets and all.
@RobertN
Russian propaganda has really done a job on you.
You won't know what to think when all the Russian internet troll farms shut down.
Although the Chinese trolls will keep going, so there's that.
@Davidski
"Russian propaganda has really done a job on you.
You won't know what to think when all the Russian internet troll farms shut down."
Of course, since anyone who is skeptical of the anglo-zionist hegemon's mainstream version of events and takes an alternate or dissenting view is of necessity either a dupe or an outright paid disinfo agent of Putin's. Nothing else outside of that extreme binary can exist in the universe. Thanks for the edification.
Off topic: Horses! (from Anna Szecsenyi-Nagy, Dan Gerber and the Hungarian Lab)
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.06.29.547029v1.full.pdf -
"Genomic refugium of pre-domestication lineages in the Bronze Age Carpathian Basin"
"Horse domestication is a key element in history for its impact on human mobility and warfare. There is clear evidence for horse control from the beginning of the 2nd millennium BCE in the Carpathian Basin, when antler cheekpieces appear in the archaeological record mostly in the eastern areas. Previous archaeogenomic studies also revealed that the spread of the ancestors of modern day horses began at this time period, but the details of this event in Bronze Age Europe is yet to be uncovered. In this study we report a new shotgun genome (~0.9x coverage) of a Middle Bronze Age horse (radiocarbon dated to 1740-1630 cal. BCE) from Tompa site, southern Hungary, along with six mitochondrial genomes from various sites from Late Copper Age to Early Bronze Age Western Hungary.
Our results reveal a strong bottleneck among pre-domestication Carpathian Basin horses and delayed DOM2 introduction into the region compared to the surrounding areas. The population size reduction was most probably due to human mediated loss of natural habitat, but the practice of horsekeeping after the turn of the 2nd millennium BCE can not be excluded based on the genomic data.
Our results provide a complex history for horse domestication in the Central- European region, highlighting the need for further research to fully understand the extent and nature of human-horse interactions in this area throughout prehistory."
I barely watch news & not really into politics, apart from the occasional controversial chinwag, but if I do I go to AlJazeera
It has western and western-educated journalists but without the pressure of schilling for the one metanarrative
@ Orpheus
“ Don't care if either country disappears from the map”
You don’t care about the broader orthodox oecumene ?
@RobertN
It's somewhat perplexing but also amusing how the Russians have the American political right by the balls.
The guys that you probably follow religiously, like Tucker Carlson, Scott Ritter and their ilk, are at best Russia's useful idiots and at worse I don't know what.
Ask yourself what a real Republican like Ronald Reagen would do in a time like this instead of taking cues from a clown like Carlson.
I don’t know what Reagan would have done, but a smart American president (not smart American presidents have gone since Clinton) would either dissolve NATO simultaneously with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, or include Russia in NATO back in 1995 (Yeltsin and Putin at the beginning of their presidency were ready to join NATO) and would have taken control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Nuclear weapons already in 1995 through NATO.
The smart thing to do was to get Ukraine into NATO as soon as possible, like before 2014.
But Obama, Merkel, the French, etc. though it was better to appease and bloat Russia with gas and oil money.
Obviously that plan didn't work out too well.
It was because of such "strategists" like you that the war began
You might think that NATO will stop Putin, and the war will also reach Poland if it drags on for several years
In 1995, Russia was a very unstable country fighting internal wars with Caucasian republics and provinces.
NATO does not accept countries with the democratic deficits. Russia was in Soviet times and it is now an empire with its emperor, not a democracy.
I don't know how Russia can survive under democracy within its current borders.
In that case, Tatars, Mordvins, Bashkirs, Chechens, Dagestanis, etc. would separate from Russia in a very short period of time.
This is the reason why it feels threatened by Ukraine. Because of democracy.
@Davidski
“He is the elder son of artist and San Francisco native Lisa McNear (née Lombardi) (1945–2011) and Dick Carlson (1941–)”. Probably the people we know didn’t convince him to be a cristao novo. For the Italian surname of the mother he could be also of Longobard origin, we don’t know. T S Eliot would say : “Echt Deutsch”.
Through the research I dayly do I am seeing that Michel Lombardi was only her second husband. Anyway we don’t know who her true father was, thus we need at least a genetic test.
@ ph2ter
I think that your analysis is like the first moves in the chess game. They are important, but the winner will be who foresaw a move beyond yours. Russia and China will have next the same problems of US and France (and other countries of course). US had Trump, or Tucker Carlson as Davidski says, just because they are democracies. Russia and China aren’t democracies and everything will depend from the choose of their leader and a few other persons, also the use of an atomic attack. It is ridiculous that countries not widest than Massachusetts could think to count something when we are speaking of continents.
Well, it's all speculation. If they did not separate in the 1990s, they are not separating even more so now. Moreover, these branches of artificial countries, born in the bowels of the CIA, such as Croatia or Ukraine, are in a political struggle. There would be no USA and NATO and there would be no Croatia.
Why I have a feeling that here we also have several Medvedevs threatening with nuclear bombs.
No USA, no NATO, no Ukraine and no Croatia? What does it mean? The next Russian move in this chess game?
Desperate and loser people.
@ ph2ter @ Vladimir
I believe Tatars, Mordvins, Bashkirs, Chechens, Dagestanis etc. would not separate from Russia for economic reasons but rather from a cultural point of view as they probably don't matter much economically, Tatars are more liberal and open in their Muslim beliefs in contrast to Dagestanis. But sovereign countries like Kazakhstan, which are economically independent, will distance themselves from Russia, in contrast to Kyrgyzstan, it will probably not be a difficult path to a democratic Russia, but some democratic states in the West are partly contradictory and, for example, it was earlier offner with the difference of opinion (see Corona / divided nation (Germany...) or other political opinion, classified as the most severe right... Vladimir is right, Russia really wanted to join NATO in the 90s!
"A smart American president would include Russia in NATO back in 1995 (Yeltsin and Putin at the beginning of their presidency were ready to join NATO)"
They did seek closer ties with Western nations and cooperated with NATO on certain issues, but the idea of Russia becoming a member of NATO was never seriously pursued or supported by either Yeltsin or Putin. You don't know what you are talking about. Moreover, do we really want to fool ourselves and believe that the Russian population would have been supportive? If they see the Baltic states in NATO as some kind of (non-existent) threat, imagine what a disappointment it would have been if the former Soviet empire had been at the mercy of those evil NATO American Westerners! Btw, joining NATO is not something that happens with the blink of an eye; there are several procedures to follow, and Russia, as devastated as it was in 1995, simply wouldn't have been ready yet.
"The smart thing to do was to get Ukraine into NATO as soon as possible, like before 2014"
The majority of the Ukrainian population was opposed to Ukraine joining NATO. They only started changing their minds from 2014 onwards when they realized that not having a fascist neighbor invading you might make life more comfortable. It's not even easy for Ukraine to join NATO today or after the war; its entry would be hindered by clowns like Erdogan and Orban. Just look at how difficult it has been for Finland to join or even for Sweden, which still hasn't made it.
"NATO does not accept countries with the democratic deficits"
I don't know how true this is, countries like Turkey have significant deficits in democracy and yet they are part of NATO. Hungary has them too lately. Furthermore, you are free to join NATO, but you cannot be kicked out.
"It's somewhat perplexing but also amusing how the Russians have the American political right by the balls"
Unfortunately, not only in America, it has gained a strong foothold in Europe as well. If only you knew how bad things really are...
"But Obama, Merkel, the French, etc. though it was better to appease and bloat Russia with gas and oil money."
What part of free exchange do you not understand? Those tricky Russians—always wanting mutual benefit!
By the way, Davidski, you have failed to post and engage my last two comments. I am not banned and I have violated none of your new rules. I demonstrated that you are wrong to so facilely report the line that the Russian invasion was unprovoked and I warned against your helping give political cover to Zelensky to bomb Russia's asset, the Zaporozh'e nuclear plant. Please post--and refute if you can!--those comments.
Poland was foolish to listen to British blandishments in WW2. Why would you enjoin such advice to Ukraine? Do hard feelings over Banderist massacres and Bogdan's uprisings motivate such bad counsel?
Or are you a run-of-the-mill and unskeptical journalist when it comes to politics, however stalwart you have been on race and genes?
@Spy
You're a funny guy.
@Rob
I dont see why a bunch of guys from Kiev, who have obviusly been bribed by USA & the Brits, think they own the Donbass and Crimea. They don't and Russia has a right to take it back.
What about the international laws and treaties signed by everyone including Russia that say otherwise?
When Ukraine wins this war, and it will within the next 12 months, this will be one of the greatest victories against evil in human history.
And there's nothing that Russia can do about it. Even if it blows up a nuclear plant or uses tactical nukes it'll still lose.
The best thing for Russia is to get out of Ukraine, including Crimea, now.
@ ph2ter
“Why I have a feeling that here we also have several Medvedevs threatening with nuclear bombs.
No USA, no NATO, no Ukraine and no Croatia? What does it mean? The next Russian move in this chess game?
Desperate and loser people”.
I am not born yesterday. I am 75. I published books of poetry and critics. What I think now was already in my writings of 60 years ago. I wrote about 20000 letters on these questions of genetics and other. Davidski knows me from many years, and, when I exprime my real thinking, he doesn’t publish my letters, but I documented what I say, and in this case I said thar this war demonstrates how all the orthers of these last two centuries happened and why, also the Opium Wars and the role of the Sassoons beyond the English Crown.
If you don’t like me, you should know and read the books of Alessandro Orsini. He is a sociologist of the LUISS University and he says that this war is “existencial” for Russia, and Russia will use its atomic arsenal. I add only that it is easier to annihilate a country of 20000 kmq than a continent.
Remember that “desperate” people who run in our cities, come from elsewhere, has no difficulties to stab someone of us. They have nothing to loose. The knife of Russia is its atomic arsenal, and I’d suggest to the rich America to shed a look sometime to its Kensington streets.
Of course, the population of Russia will not join NATO. And Russia did not need this entry either in 1995 or now. These are not tiny Croatia or Ukraine, randomly formed thanks to the successful geopolitical intrigues of the UK and the US and existing exclusively as long as they are patronized from Washington. Russia's entry into NATO was primarily necessary for the security of Europe as a whole so that there would be no such situations as now. As for Ukraine's victory within the next 12 months, what is Davidski ready to deliver if this does not happen, and this will never happen.
@Vladimir:"These are not tiny Croatia or Ukraine, randomly formed thanks to the successful geopolitical intrigues of the UK and the US and existing exclusively as long as they are patronized from Washington. "
Croatia and Ukraine became independent when the old empires collapsed. They collapsed when democratic processes were introduced (after the collapse of the Soviet Empire mainly due to its failed occupation of Afghanistan).
Therefore, their independence was inevitable and it has nothing directly to do with the UK or the USA. They were against the breakup of Yugoslavia if you remember the events and they could not do anything against our will to become independent from Yugoslavia (actually from Serbia, because Yugoslavia turned into Serboslavia after Tito's death).
Croatia as a state was formed in the 9th century and the Croatian people have existed continuously since then for at least 1100 years, although throughout our history we have been parts of different empires. Yes, we are tiny as you say but it doesn't mean that the world is made only for Russia or that Russia has the right to destroy the whole world because of the will of one sick man heading it or the mafia hiding behind him.
(Actually I think that the using of the nukes is not in China's or India's interests and that the Tsar listens their signals. Russia will not profit using them. This would be a desperate move.)
(I actually think that the use of nuclear bombs is not in the interest of China or India and that the Tsar listens to their signals. Russia will not profit by using them. This would be a desperate move.)
Croatia has existed as an entity since 900s, it is a united 'Yugoslavia' which was a new entity. Because of the 1990s, media and 'reports' speak of centuries of ethnic hatred, but there was no such thing. the Croat and Serb dukes & kings existed in parallel and often helped each other (e.g. after the Bulgar invasion of Serbia, the elites fled to Croatia; or Liutevid of Pannonia took refuge with the Serbs). In fact, I really cant think of a single battle between them before 20th cc. It soured after unification in the 20th century,..
@pf2ter
Due to the fact that in the 9th century some tiny principality existed for 100 years, and in completely different borders, it does not at all follow that an independent state should arise in this place in the 21st century. How many such principalities have existed since the 9th century - a great many. There is, for example, Catalonia, which also once existed as an independent principality. Until the United States is faced with the task of destroying Spain, Catalonia will be part of Spain, and when the United States wants to destroy Spain, Catalonia will immediately remember that they were once an independent county in the 10th century for 200 years.
As for nuclear weapons, I don’t know why you got the idea that Russia is going to use them. No one in Russia even discusses this seriously.
@Vladimir
You're not making any sense.
These sorts of arguments invoking history to debate whether certain countries are really countries have no standing in the eyes of international politics and law.
By the way, Prigo's selfies are hilarious.
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1676709862753853443
International law is the law of the strong. If the United States wanted to bomb Iraq, Serbia, Libya or Syria, international law decided that this was a good thing and should continue to be done. Russia wanted to bomb Kyiv, international law stated that it was impossible to do this polo. If Hitler had won World War 2, then international law would have condemned the Jews and ruled that it was right to exterminate them, Hitler lost and international law condemned Germany.
Here is the reaction of international law to the beginning of the bombing by the United States of Iraq
https://imgur.com/JNPJDd3
@Vladimir
International law is the law of the strong.
Right, so Russia is the weak one here and that's why the West is punishing it for its invasion of Ukraine.
And not because the invasion was wrong?
Haha.
This is exactly what the West thinks. He does not punish, but tries to punish. But the West seems to be wishful thinking in this regard. Such attempts have already been made by Swedish Charles XII, French Napoleon, German Hitler. But so far they have not been successful. It is naive to believe that Biden's attempt will be successful.
Well, the ruble is now worth one Euro cent.
But even if the punishment is largely symbolic, then obviously there must be a good reason for it since so many countries are taking part and they're supported by the vast majority of their citizens.
I can tell you that the vast majority of Poles and Aussies support economic sanctions against Russia.
They're also on the side of the Ukrainians in this war, they support military aid to Ukraine, and they want Russia to fuck off.
Russia is a self-sufficient country. The ruble is worth a cent because trade between Russia and Europe has been stopped. In Russia, this is not felt in any way. And what of the one who is supported by the Poles and Australians. And the Chinese support Russia, and there are 1.5 billion of them, and not 50 million Poles and Australians combined.
@Vladimir
Although the world is mostly ruled by the strong, it is still governed by international law, which has good principles at its core.
If Hitler had won World War II and international law had condemned the Jews, then such a law would have been evil at its core. Such a world would then descend into chaos, as such principles could be applied to any nation that the strong despise (similar to what Russia is doing to the Ukrainians right now).
I am not here to defend the actions of the USA, but Iraq was attacked for the first time because before that it attacked Kuwait, and Serbia was bombed because it attacked Kosovo and expelled 1.5 million Albanians from there (75% of the population). Syria and Libya were not invaded by the US, so these conflicts can be better described as civil wars involving strong powers such as the US or Russia.
@Rob
Yes, Croats and Serbs were not in conflict until united in Yugoslavia. The core of the problem was that Croats in Yugoslavia were not equal to the Serbs. The inequality was unsustainable. Such kind of states could only exist under force, internal or external.
The Chinese don't support Russia.
It's just that their government is in a makeshift ant-West alliance with Russia at the moment.
But even the Chinese government has said that it supports Ukraine's territorial integrity, including its claim for Crimea.
China will probably take advantage of Russia's weakness at some point after Russia loses the war.
Who knows, if Ukraine fails as a satellite of the United States, the Chinese will take advantage of the weakness of the United States.
Ukraine is not a satellite of the USA nor is it aiming to be.
It wants to be a part of the EU and nothing to do with Russia. So basically like Poland.
The Ukrainians will have their say about this, not Russians, because the Russian army failed to take Kyiv.
"When Ukraine wins this war, and it will within the next 12 months, this will be one of the greatest victories against evil in human history. The best thing for Russia is to get out of Ukraine, including Crimea, now."
Unfortunately, it is by no means certain that Ukraine will win (regain its old borders) without stronger Western support than what it currently has. I'm not even sure if it's in Ukraine's best interest to regain Crimea (and it's highly unlikely they will be able to reconquer it anyway). The population there is not at all pro-Ukrainian, they exclusively speak Russian, and even in the 1991 referendum when voters were asked, "Do you support the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine?" Crimea had the highest % of NO votes.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/Ukr_Referendum_1991_No.png
"Russia is not tiny Croatia or Ukraine, randomly formed thanks to the successful geopolitical intrigues of the UK and the US and existing exclusively as long as they are patronized from Washington."
This makes no sense. There is a Ukrainian State because the Bolsheviks (not the British or Americans) established the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1922, which in turn exists because even earlier, the partially recognized Ukrainian People's Republic emerged from its own civil war in 1917. In turn, this emerged because there was also a Ukrainian national sentiment that dates back several centuries.
I find it hard to understand the fascist language that is very popular among Russian propagandists, but seriously, what the hell does the period in which a country was born or formed have to do with this discussion? There is a Croatian people, and it doesn't matter if they were under Hungarian or Austrian rule for 1000 years. There are states and international law, and you respect them. Period. Do you seriously think that Russia is better or on par with the United States and China as a superpower? Well, no, it's only being kept alive by its natural resources and nothing else. Without them, it would be of very little significance. Even now, it has very little relevance. Considering the GDP per-capita, countries like tiny Croatia (but also Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain etc) make a much better impression than large Russia. But instead of seeing the enemy in the Russian government or in a certain mentality deeply rooted among Russians, you have chosen to see it in America and the West. It's a legitimate choice, but it doesn't lead anywhere.
Both Ukraine and Poland and most other European countries that are on duty condemning Russia are US satellites because they coordinate all their actions with the US Embassy in their country.
Meeting of the Government of Ukraine:
https://imgur.com/d4xUwpV
@Vladimir
Poles and Ukrainians don't want anything to do with Russia.
This is their choice and you should respect it.
This can be answered in different ways. If in the same defiant tone as yours, then if someone does not want to have anything to do with Russia, then he must leave the territory conquered by the Russian Empire, and this is actually the whole of Ukraine. You can answer more calmly. Ukrainians and Poles have no choice, they will not move geographically to the place of Mexico and that is why they will have to deal with Russia even if they really don’t want to.
It doesn't work like that.
Ukrainians live in Ukraine and they decide what happens there.
Russia can fuck off.
Let's see what happens, life will show
The USA is about send cluster munitions to Ukraine.
This is how they work on trenches.
https://twitter.com/kvistp/status/1676887017680928768
@Vladimir, do you think Yeltsin and Putin were going to enter NATO on US terms? Naivety. It was discussed in Russia that they proposed themselves as equal military partners. They also counted on German support and a new NATO status.
You also write that Poland and Ukraine as US satellites condemn Russia . Well, we know and on the basis of experience after 1945 we can distinguish what it means to be a satellite and what it means to be an ally. Now we can see the huge difference!
@Rob, you write that the Ukrainian war has nothing to do with Poland? It does, but only in a different order. There was a plan to seize Poland first and the "Polonized" part of Ukraine (as Yuriev wrote). Don't you remember where the Russian army was based before moving east to invade eastern Ukraine? This change was forced by Ukraine's eastern actions. But the earlier plan was different!
@Gio, know that we don't need Orsini's books. In Poland and Ukraine, we have Putin's statements, we have texts by Yuriev and Dugin, which are instructions for him. Dugin has been writing for a year that “we have entered the final, eschatological (sic) battle; fight to the death; in Ukraine, we have started the final battle with the devil, i.e. the West.
To this the Russian rulers add threats of an atomic attack: Putin, Medvedev, Lazarov and others. But this is lunatic madness; so what are they counting on? The world has never had any protection against madmen. So we react poorly!ainst madmen. So we react poorly!
@Vladimir"... if someone does not want to have anything to do with Russia, then he must leave the territory conquered by the Russian Empire, and this is actually the whole of Ukraine. ... Ukrainians and Poles have no choice, they will not move geographically to the place of Mexico and that is why they will have to deal with Russia even if they really don’t want to."
Why did you stop at the Russian Empire acquisitions, why didn't you go deeper into the past when the Mongols conquered Kievan Rus. The Mongols also have the right to the same territory.
But no, it all boils down to nuclear weapons, as if they provide an excuse for the occupation, destruction and looting of neighbouring nations.
How can we name this line of argumentation anything other than evil?
Naturally, Russia would not enter on the terms of its occupation by the US army. Terms could be negotiated and the US could sacrifice its arrogance for peace in Europe. The conditions would imply the joint adoption of key decisions, including the use of the army in third countries, the use of nuclear weapons exclusively by consensus of all countries, including the United States and Russia.
As for the Mongol Empire. Even during his lifetime, Genghis Khan divided the Mongol possessions between his sons. The eldest son Jochi received the lands in the west. Thus, the territory of modern Russia and Ukraine went to the ulus of Jochi (otherwise it was called the Great Horde). Then, after a series of internal conflicts, in particular, the Kazan Khanate, then the Crimean Khanate, then the Astrakhan Khanate separated from the Great Horde. A large horde existed on the territory of modern Saratov, Volgograd, Voronezh, Rostov regions of Russia and Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Dnepropetrovsk regions of Ukraine. In 1502, the Crimean Khan Mengli-Girey in a bloody battle defeated the Khan of the Great Horde, Shikh-Ahmed, the Great Khan of the Great Horde. Then Mengi-Girey destroyed the capital of the Great Horde, the city of Saray, and finally put an end to the Great Horde. Since that time, the Golden Horde ceased to exist officially. So no, there is no successor to the Mongol Empire of Genghis Khan.
Hi Vlad, I haven't had the pleasure of talking to a Russian-Communist imperialist in a long time. It is clear that many Russians like you want to destroy Poland, Ukraine and get their hands into the Balkans to wipe out Croatia and other Balkan states. It is good that you do not hide your intentions because that only strengthens the position of Western governments.
Regarding Russia
1-It is evident that it has become a small country (140 million inhabitants) that is not even European because most of its territory is in Asia. Its economy is a disaster and the GDP per capita will soon be like that of many African countries. In other words, it has never represented a threat to the European Union, which quadruples its population and wealth.
2-Their conventional army is a joke, they lost in Afghanistan, suffered in Chechnya and now they have been unable even to take Kyev a few kilometers from their border. Are you really planning to attack the Poles? now they are not alone, the European Union will never allow the Russians to set foot on Polish territory, the longer you take to accept it the bigger the disappointment will be.
3-Ukrainians, Poles, Croats etc have already suffered for decades from Russian communist imperialism. They only want to be free, they will fight to the death to get it and we will help them.
4-Russia has not been a superpower for a long time, neither economically nor militarily, if they do not become a democratic regime they will end up as a Chinese colony.
5-No one knows how the war will end, we only know that thousands of innocent people have died and that Ukraine will be devastated. The conflict may last for decades and even if the Russians were to control the entire Ukrainian territory they would face a fierce civil resistance and a bloody guerrilla war supported by the West.
6-Any hope of negotiation with the Russians will fail, there has been no hope for peace and reconciliation for a long time.
7-The Russian people who oppose Putin's pseudo-communist regime must rise up and liquidate this clown dictator. After so many touch-ups, the only thing left for he to do is to get his ears done, soon he will look like an old Hollywood actress like his friend Berlusconi (may he rest in peace).
8-Don't try to fool anyone, Russia has been trying to destabilize Europe politically and economically for decades, and has only managed to be ten times poorer than us. Perhaps it would be good to change tactics and to procure a little freedom and happiness for its people
9-The whole of europe has nationalism problems, Great Britain (Scotland), Belgium (Flanders), France (Corsica), Balkans, Italy (north vs. south), Spain (Catalonia) etc. and the Russians try to support independence movements to destabilize the EU. So far they have not achieved their goals but we know well who our enemies are, and you Vlad, are one of them.
10-You know, Putin's future is the same as that of Saddam Hussein, Gadaffi and other criminals who have committed crimes against humanity.
It is precisely due to the fact that there are opinions in the West that you have comprehensively outlined here Putin is in power. There is no opposition to him and there will not be until adequate people come to power in the West. The war is unlikely to reach your mountains, but you should also tighten your belts there. The economy of Germany, the locomotive of the EU, which subsidized all of you, including Poland, for 20 years, is sinking to the bottom.
@ Gaska
I know now why Gaska has been against the kurganist theory, not for my reasons (anyway I descend from the chieftains of Yamnaya with my R-Z2110, even though I think that the odest origin is around the Alps), but for hate against our descendants of the hunter-gatherers of the Siberian corridor. It is comprehensible, seen that his origins are uncertain both from a genetic and a cultural point of view.
By the way, about the standard of living. How many tanks does the Basque country have with a high standard of living? Not a single tank. One Russian tank will arrive with a tankman who has a low standard of living and there will be no Basque Country with a high standard of living. This is how life is now.
OT: Iberia's Prince with the Rock-Crystal daggers, suspected to be an precociously early steppe Bell Beaker prince, with many polygamous wives buried alongside in some guesses, who we couldn't get DNA from.. apparently a female - https://phys.org/news/2023-07-power-copper-age-ivory-lady.html
(bellbeakerblogger - https://bellbeakerblogger.blogspot.com/2018/05/a-prince-and-his-twenty-wives-garcia.html?m=1)
Do we believe it?
@Vladimir
There's no real opposition to Putin in Russia because most Russians are like you.
And don't worry the German and Polish economies won't be tanking anytime soon.
@ Matt
I expected him to be a local I2a Iberian just like the other wealthy individuals from southern Iberia
You don't know the majority of Russians yet, I'm an extreme liberal among them
No wonder Ukrainians don't want anything to do with Russia.
However, they will have to. Ukrainians will lose the war to the majority of Russians, and if they don't want to lose, then Americans will have to negotiate with people like me. That's life.
Ukraine will win the war in the next 6-12 months.
After that Russia will have no say in its affairs.
A less certain prediction is that Russia will fall apart sooner or later after getting beaten by Ukraine.
But even if this doesn't happen, there's likely to be some serious instability in Russia for many years to come.
Putin's wet dreams were that Europe would freeze, and now they are that the German economy will sink to the bottom.
Neither have we frozen, nor will the German economy sink, but Russia would certainly turn into a huge North Korea spanning two continents.
He who takes the sword will perish by the sword, at the end.
Russians should rather think about their standard of living, not medieval empires. Ordinary Russians are dying, and only the mafia that is in power in Russia benefits from such imperial wars.
BASF to downsize ‘permanently’ in Europe
World’s biggest chemicals company says high energy costs make region increasingly uncompetitive
https://www.ft.com/content/b0b2b2c2-ee63-4989-afab-6882feab4b73
The slow death of Europe
Industry is being strangled by sky-high energy bills and mountains of bureaucracy.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/03/02/the-slow-death-of-europe/
@Vlad
Don't you realize that we westerners are not scared?, before a Russian tank reaches the Pyrenees we will have colonized the sun. If you really are a liberal you should be more concerned about the thousands of young Russians who are dying uselessly and less worried about the existence of Croatia or Poland. Wouldn't it be preferable for Russia to invest more in educating its people and improving their living conditions than in tanks and nuclear weapons?
@Gio you said-"his origins are uncertain both from a genetic and a cultural point of view”
Ha Ha, I am very clear about my cultural and genetic origin, I don't need the Kurganists to lecture me about it.BTW, I don't hate Siberian HGs, but it is clear that I would rather have my origin in Villabruna than in Siberia. Time will tell who is right.
I hope your life is going well and that we can discuss for a long time, it is always good to confront ideas.
@Matt
Those remains were analyzed in 2015 by Sara Palomo (mtDNA-H1) "a man with European maternal origin", No results were obtained for Y-Chr.
It was later analyzed by V. Villaba Mouco and no genetic results were obtained.
In any case, it is not surprising that “Lady Ivory” is a high priestess, since in Montelirio more than 20 women committed suicide (high levels of mercury and cinnabar).
Other examples of important women in Iberia
El Argar culture (La Almoloya, Gatas, El Argar, gold and silver diadems...)
BB culture (Gold Lady, Humanejos, Madrid)-
In these cases they are not priestesses but princesses. In any case, women do well to claim their role in prehistoric societies, because they were not always objects of exchange (exogamy).
Until liberals come to power in the West, we Russian liberals have no one to talk to there. Now in power in the West are extremists who speak the language of ultimatums, and Putin is just right for them because he also speaks the language of ultimatums. Liberals speak the language of negotiations, discussing various options for solving problems and mutually reaching a mutually acceptable solution.
There's nothing to discuss, because Russia broke every rule in the book with its invasion and brutalization of Ukraine.
Russia must now be defeated as a matter of principal.
If Russia is allowed to get anything of value from this war, then this will destroy international order for a long time. That can't happen.
That's why you won't see any attempts to appease Putin from any serious players.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. Putin exactly corresponds to this position, because he himself has exactly the same peremptory position, only the exact opposite.
"You cannot negotiate peace with someone who has come to kill you." (Golda Meir)
@Vladimir
What Putin wants or thinks won't be part of the reckoning, because he seems to have lost touch with reality.
Also, like I said, apart from the liberation of Ukraine, much bigger strategic issues are of concern here.
You can't invade and brutalize a large country like Ukraine without major consequences.
@ph2ter
"You cannot negotiate peace with someone who has come to kill you." (Golda Meir)
But you forgot to say that these were the words of a Palestinian reflected by Golda Meir’s nose to the journalist.
As they said in ancient Rome - Fortissimus erit vincere!
The context doesn't matter.
The Tsar does the same to his Russian opponents as he does to the Ukrainians. He kills them.
This is the law on which the mafia is based.
We cannot allow such behaviour to prevail in international relations.
This is impossible. The Tsar can only try to achieve his goals by force, but he cannot go through the wall. The Soviet Union failed to conquer Afghanistan, and Ukraine is a much bigger target.
Simply impossible to achieve.
If the war were to last for tens of years, then Russia will be a ruin in the end, as well as Ukraine.
Although there is some information:
Former U.S. officials have held secret Ukraine talks with prominent Russians
The aim of the discussions is to lay the groundwork for potential negotiations to end the war, people briefed on the talks told NBC News.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/former-us-officials-secret-ukraine-talks-russians-war-ukraine-rcna92610
Their talks are worthless.
There won't be any negotiations without Ukraine agreeing to them.
Ukraine is a vassal territory dependent on the United States. What they will be told from Washington, then they will do it. But I agree that there are different opinions in Washington, and now the prevailing opinion is to continue the war.
Ukraine and the US are allies.
As an ally, and a key supporter of Ukraine, the US can try to persuade Ukraine to negotiate, but it can't force it to do so.
Ukraine won't negotiate until it has liberated most or even all of its pre-war territories, probably including Crimea.
So that's that, unless the public opinion in Ukraine changes.
You're fooling yourself if you think otherwise.
Fake news, as Trump calls them, works great in Ukraine too. In a month they can convince public opinion of anything. The main thing is to have a team from the White House.
No, negotiations with Russia won't happen until the Ukrainians allow them to happen.
And that means the Ukrainian public opinion must shift.
I can't see it shifting with Ukraine being brutalized by Russia like this.
So this will play out until Russia is defeated.
Nice update on the war from Russian TV.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1676976101262802945
It's actually much worse than what this guy admits.
Putin being as asshole of Saddam Hussain’s proportions, I still can’t stand misguided and racist White Nationalist comments regarding Russians being an “Asiatic” or Eastern Eurasian race swirling on Twitter; Russia’s origins, overwhelming majority of population, language, culture, and…genetics…is European to the core. Russia is identical to other East Slavic pops, and overall its proportion of Yamnaya-like and WHG percentage profiles are slightly elevated compared to Western European Unetice derived R1b carrier demographics
@Vladimir
Let me tell you one thing first. There was a time when, despite the very unpleasant experiences I had with from the Russified Polish communists in the times of Stalinism and later (I almost found myself in Workuta or Kolyma!), I felt some family sympathy for the Russians and opted for the respect and dignity of the Russians on the forums , because they are supposedly our relatives (although in the number of common IBDs with Poles, the Russians turned out to be only in 8th place!); because we have a common language and a lot of common history and the same paternal haplogroup….
When did everything go wrong?
When an influential Russian (I think he appears on this blog...) praised Stalin that he had done the right thing by organizing a "so-called Katyn” (i.e. simply genocide), because Poles – as he argued – should know what their duties are towards the elder "imperialist brother"!
If Russian citizens, and there were several of them on the Rodstvo forum, have such views, then there is no longer a corner for them in my feelings!
Imperialism is a disgusting thing in relations between countries, correlated with contempt for the considered weaker.
And you seem to be in this trend, citing force as the decisive argument of the Russians. This is what turns into contempt for them in the course of the war, which, due to the methods of destroying Ukraine that we are observing, may prove to be long-lasting. Pity! (I'll add details in the next post!)
@Matt
Apparently there are issues with amelogenin regarding deletion of male-specific markers in males of certain populations, giving a false identification of "female". The rate is low and I'm not sure if the authors have addressed this possibility in their methodology or not, but there's at least some precedent for it to be a wrong call, potentially.
Vladimir said...
You don't know the majority of Russians yet, I'm an extreme liberal among them
July 6, 2023 at 9:02 PM
So in the end, I really don't know what lives in Russian skin.
If the Russians hate their neighbors so much, why do they want to take them under their imperialist wings? In fact, what good can they offer people within their dream borders "all the way to Lisbon", to be "from Ocean to Ocean", if they cannot govern themselves on such a huge "their" territory of 1/7 of the globe?
But can Russia at least take care of its traditional people?!
Here is a graph of today's Russians by age and gender, and for comparison, a similar graph of today's Poles
http://www.tropie.tarnow.opoka.org.pl/images/russia-age-sex-structure2022.jpg
http://www.tropie.tarnow.opoka.org.pl/images/polska-ludnosc-wiek-plec-w2021.jpg
Both pyramids/trees are similar because we have similar genes and influences of great events, but the Russian one is far more complicated; these are the effects of wars, disease or negligence.
In some periods the number of those born and still alive is great, and in others there are few born and still alive….
We look at the top of the tree/pyramid. There, born before World War II and during the war. These are my peers. The same harsh conditions for men and women at that time. Do you notice the difference between the number of men and women living in Russia to today? Here's catastrophically as in the ratio 2:10.3. These are the effects of the much shorter life span of men than women in Russia.
In some European countries, the average life expectancy of men today reaches 82 years!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_life_expectancy
The average length of survival of Russian men is ... 64.21 years, so at the end of Europe (on a par with countries living under Russian "protection"). This tragedy is also seen against the backdrop of women. Women in most countries tend to live a little longer (it's genetic). Women in Russia do not live long, but they gain a numerical advantage over men around the age of 30, while in most countries only after the age of 45 (during the period of initial testosterone dysfunction); after all, Russian men live more than 10 years less than women and this difference is one of the largest in the world!
What is happening to the fate of men? It's definitely Russia's participation in unsuccessful wars (as in Ukraine), difficult working conditions, lack of care and health culture (you know these facts and do not explain everything with drunkenness!). So why doesn't your state care about its citizens, about living in peace, about working conditions and health care, just as it fights for imperial dominance in the world at the cost of men's lives, economic and social neglect?
Very strange...
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1677623640425127937
What is the point?
@Vladimir
"if someone does not want to have anything to do with Russia, then he must leave the territory conquered by the Russian Empire, and this is actually the whole of Ukraine."
Emm, but you're not the only ones who fought in the Russian Empire. To be fair, then you need to estimate the contribution of each nation in the conquests of the Russian Empire. Distribution of property as in a divorce. Have you used the human and material resources of Ukrainians? You have. It remains only to calculate how many served in the infantry, cavalry, Black Sea Fleet, in the militia, etc. How much provisions, horses, etc. were used. How many Ukrainians fought in the army during World War II, about 6 million? It's not a small contribution. Besides, speaking for the whole of Ukraine is unveraciously, Cossack Hetmanate, with it's territory, should be noted, united with the Moscow Kingdom, before the existence of the Russian Empire :D
"The main thing is to have a team from the White House."
Or a team with perverted imagination from Russian media outlet :D Yeay, they works great on meemaws like Rob and Gio. About vassalage... Maybe you're partly right, the US does not allow Ukraine much, such as invading the territory of Russia, hitting Russia with Western weapons. But despite this, I think the strike on the Crimean bridge, the strikes with drones on the Russian infrastructure inside Russia and dispatch of RVC, are the initiative of Ukraine. Also, US pressure on the Ukrainian politicians about negotiations, with high probability will lead to a split, the army will not support this. And your hopes for Trump, pointless. And as for Poland... It generally conducts an independent policy in many respects, it is strange that you don't see this.
@Michael
I learned a new English/American word: meemaw. My positions are personal, of course, but at the light of the whole History. I think you should learn not English words (you are probably a mothertongue, but who read a lot the Books): Koloimis’kij, Zelens’kij, BlackRock, Great Israel, and lastly also Erdogan and the Nazis of the Batallion Azof. I bet upon Russia and China for the next future. The strategy was already used by Scipio the African: to bring the war into their home.
P.S. Your name does mean "who is like GD", but he always came bad.
The uprising of Bogdan Khmelnitsky and his appeal to the Moscow tsar about entering Russia could not take place by itself, since these territories were part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The consent of the Moscow tsar to the entry essentially meant the beginning of a war with Rzeczpospolita. The war lasted from 1654 to 1686, ending with the loss of Rzeczpospolita part of the territories, including Kiev.
The prefix "empire" was indeed added to the name of Russia in 1721 after the victory over Sweden, but this does not mean that he ruled another country until 1721.
Well, everything else is fake news noodles. Ukraine is a territory with no economy and budget. Its existence is completely dependent on subsidies from Washington. Poland is also governed from Washington, but is financed in addition to the United States also at the expense of Germany from the budget of the European Union.
@Gio wrote,
I bet upon Russia and China for the next future.
Has China abandoned the idea of colonizing Siberia forever?
@Vladimir
Poland is also governed from Washington, but is financed in addition to the United States also at the expense of Germany from the budget of the European Union.
Haha.
I see you're quite the comedian.
Russia can only dream about the economy that Poland has, even without any substantial natural resources.
The source of this economy is subsidies from the European Union. Resources at least need to be extracted, and subsidies do not even require this
@StP
“Has China abandoned the idea of colonizing Siberia forever?”
Probably it doesn’t, but who put Russia in the hands of China? Who feared that Western Europe, not only Germany, were allied with Russia, and before who made that Germany (Italy counted a little then) attacked URSS instead of slauthering the soldiers who were waiting along the Channel and the trick of Pearl Harbour made its pourpose (US knew very well that). The work should be done in the east above all. I think that China remember more, than the few Siberia subtracted by the Tsars, the Sassoons and the English Crown, and anyway the dominant question for them, Russians and we all will be the Afro-Islamic hell in the next years. Seen that we are speaking of genetics, I think that Turks have no more than 7% of “Turkish”, as other elected people and also the Arbereshet in some hamlet of Southern Italy. I know very well what I have speaking about.
@Davidski
Let your friends know this video of an Italian strategist, Lucio Caracciolo of the "Limes" review, and let them know which is the reality beyond all what they aren't able to know.
What a pity if they don 't understand Italian.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5leESlXYGuc
@ Michael
Sorry who are you ? Ah yes a random nobody to give us the D low on Moscow divorce rates lol
You may go back to your meeawing to CNN
@Gio wrote,
I bet upon Russia and China for the next future.
You wrote that you bet on an alliance between Russia and China.
I think it is short-lived the alliance, threatened by competition for Siberia (as it was in the past)
But if public health matters, let's compare the lifespan of men:
I'm looking at the men's life expectancy list
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy
China: 75.46 years old, i.e. ranked 47th in the world
Russia, like Tanzania and Eritrea: 64+, i.e. ~150th in the world.
Are you not worried about such a state of health and life of working and fighting men in Russia?
Do Russian imperial and conquest (in Ukraine or Poland - according to threats) inclinations make sense?
@Vladimir
"these territories were part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth."
Doesn't matter. The Commonwealth didn't controle territories that entered into an alliance with Moscow. Thats the point. You've said that all the lands were conquered by the Russian Empire. Don't try divert the story in a other direction.
"The war lasted from 1654 to 1686"
Except for the years of the armistice (Truce of Vilna), and the alliance against the Swedes.
"Well, everything else is fake news noodles. Ukraine (Poland) is a territory with no economy and budget....."
Keep saying your morning prayer, it wont change much.
@ StP
' you write that the Ukrainian war has nothing to do with Poland? It does, but only in a different order. There was a plan to seize Poland first and the "Polonized" part of Ukraine (as Yuriev wrote). ''
And what is your source for that ? Reading Dugins memoirs or from your observations of Dravidians in Europe ? please.
Divide and conquer. Original R1a Corded Ware R1a ancestors worked together in their expansion, long before artificial borders were set up.
The beast among Y-haplogroups
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2017/09/the-beast-among-y-haplogroups.html
In all likelihood, R1a was born somewhere in North Eurasia. More importantly, its R1a-M417 subclade, which encompasses almost 100% of modern-day R1a lineages, no doubt came into existence somewhere on the Pontic-Caspian (or Western) steppe in what is now Ukraine and southern Russia just 7,000-6,000 years ago.
And within a couple of thousand years it expanded in almost all directions, probably on the back of the early Indo-European dispersals (see here), to cover a massive range from Scandinavia to South Asia. It is the beast among Y-haplogroups.
@ StP
"Russia, like Tanzania and Eritrea: 64+, i.e. ~150th in the world.
Are you not worried about such a state of health and life of working and fighting men in Russia?
Do Russian imperial and conquest (in Ukraine or Poland - according to threats) inclinations make sense?"
You are speaking to a person whose country has the highest lasting of life and my family frequently reached 90 and even 100.
I think that Russians live in a difficult country as to the climate and the circumstancies, and smoke and vodka aren't favourable to the health, but fortunately Russian women live their splendid youth. Anyway the territory of Russia is that of the hunter-gatherers of the Siberian corridor, and they own that for we all who from up there did come.
I don't know who you are. Probably in your country people has a longer life, but very likely it is consumed by an endless infancy and an interminable decadence.
Blogger Gio said...
I think that Russians live in a difficult country as to the climate and the circumstancies, and smoke and vodka aren't favourable to the health, but fortunately Russian women live their splendid youth. Anyway the territory of Russia is that of the hunter-gatherers of the Siberian corridor, and they own that for we all who from up there did come.
Russian women actually have a slightly better life expectancy than men.
But the Russian authorities should draw conclusions from the deplorable fate of Russian men in Russia and in the countries it has enslaved and change its fatal "geopolitics" of frequent wars and conquests that make its citizens cannon fodder. If the State cannot take care of its own people, let it give up its greed for other people's lands; and other people.
Blogger Rob said...@ StP 'There was a plan to seize Poland first and the "Polonized" part of Ukraine (as Yuriev wrote). ''
And what is your source for that ? Reading Dugins memoirs or from your observations of Dravidians in Europe ? please.
Yes, the source of information that the military invasion of Russia was to begin with the Polonized part of Ukraine and Poland is precisely this book by Yuriev, The Third Empire, Russia as it should be; and the confirmation is the fact that the concentration of Russian troops initially took place on the Podnieper River, near the border, and in the last moment, because the plan of attack was visibly changed, the army marched to the east.
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