Saturday, March 14, 2020
COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 open thread
When's the peak expected in your neighborhood? Do you plan to hunker down when it arrives or take your chances?
If you're a Brit, how do you feel about your government's diabolical plan to have you inoculated against SARS-CoV-2 many months before a vaccine is available? It's certainly an interesting experiment, and it might just work, but at what cost?
To be honest, I'm very concerned. This isn't anything like the average flu. Just look at what's already happening in Lombardy, one of the wealthiest parts of Italy and Europe.
Feel free to share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below. However, please note that conspiracy theories are against the rules at this blog. The awesome map below is from nextstrain.org.
Update 18/03/2020: It looks like the UK government health experts read this blog and got their government to change its policy (see here). Many other countries, including the US, are also now taking more serious steps to halt the spread of COVID-19. But will it be enough, and can the global economy handle the pressure?
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402 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 400 of 402 Newer› Newest»20,000 at the most? Are you freaking high? You're out of your lane and it is irresponsible to say such garbage. You should listen to experts and not dipshits like Trump. Everyone needs to hunker down and avoid public as much as possible for 12-18 months.
Don´t understand why they don´t study and take advice from China and South Korea. Both countries basically managed to stop the epidemic.
Yeah we can't be alarmists, but politicians must tell the truth to people
1-the virus has mutated is not exactly the same one that infected China
2-Not only does it kill elderly people, here in Spain a 52-year-old nurse and two police officers (58 and 37 years old) have died today without previous pathologies, and there are many people under 65 in intensive care.
3-The death toll is going to be terribly high in Europe. Italy will go over 3,300 today and they have just started. We have 700 and the nursing homes are being intervened by the Ministry of Health because the old people are dying very quickly.
So 20.000 at the most?- Yeah, 20.000 in one week (425 people died yesterday in Italy)-
if we are not able to avoid more infections
I hope that Americans are more effective than us in containing the virus, it seems that cities like New York reacted quickly. It is essential to take extreme sanitary measures and prevent hospitals from collapsing- USA is already the sixth country in the world-More than 10,000 cases and more than 160 deaths. The virus can go there for two months without control, exactly the same thing that happened in Italy
I forgot to add my name, Mehmet Kurtkaya, at the end of my comment above by user "Unknown".
Anyone who tries to downplay the epidemic must read the facts, available online (Medcram, Dr. campbell, Yale tung etc). If they continue to dowpplay or use herd immunity arguments then they are either sociopath/psychopath or have a political agenda.
Stay put, trust science and trust humanity. I hope and think we'll win this within a year,maybe even earlier . I do not think it will be too bad because governments are forced to use lockdown measures even in blatantly negligent US/Uk. And there are potential treatments.
Mehmet Kurtkaya
Sorry, I noticed that there is one other poster with nick Unknown. I forgot to add my name to the comment beginning with "I am not a doctor but an engineer who read extensively on Covid-19."
I always type my name at the end of my comment except that one (I forgot).
Mehmet Kurtkaya
Epoch: "What's going on with the age distribution in Germany? Especially the very few cases over 80?"
I think it has to do with testing strategies and capacities. Initially, the focus was on identifying and isolating potential vectors and their contacts, like, e.g., those managers returning from Wuhan, the elderly couple that had caught the virus in Italy and spread it during a Carneval session in Heinsberg County, or that guy that had returned from skiing in the Alps and infected 70 kids in a club in Berlin. In addition, priority was given to testing hospital staff. This typically concerned the economically and socially active pobulation, so we're currently still having a clear selection bias.
Health insurance payment for Corona testing was only granted from late February on (a delay heavily criticised by many doctors), and at the moment, Tests are still difficult to get. E.g., I yesterday watched a TV report about a freshly opened public testing center in Frankfurt, where people had to stand in line for up to 6 hours before getting tested. My daughter needed two days to come through at the Corona hotline in Berlin, just to be told that she has been recorded and will be put on the waiting list for testing in the days to come. So we are yet far from having a representative picture of the situation, and again - this time because of self-selection, e.g. being able to queue up for testing - a bias against over 80s. [And a lot of the susbstantial increase in infection numbers we are going to see in the next days will relate to more comprehensive testing, and not reflect the actual dynamic.]
Conversely, over 80s have been hardly controlled at all, and quite often, SARS-CoV-2 is only diagnosed post mortem. E.g., they found in an 81-year old hospital patient that was administered for esophageal cancer in the final stage and died there. In such a case, you may question whether the death was actually related to the Virus (and in fact, he seems to be absent from RKI's official statistics).
Mortality, OTOH, shows a completely different pattern. According to the RKI "All deceased were older than 65 years of age; the mean age was 80 years and the medan age 82.5 years)." Conversely, none of the kids that in late February had been accidentally infected by a nurse working in the Hamburg University Hospital (ski holiday, developed symptoms on his second working day after return) has developed any serious symptoms so far.
As to symptoms: A doctor from Aachen University who has intensively monitored the Heinsberg County cases reported that many infected displayed the temporary inability to properly taste and smell. In several cases, this inability seems to have been the only symptom (i.e. no fever, coughing, throat pain etc.).
@Frank: The real impact will come about 3-4 weeks after the initial first larger scale spread. I tell you in 2-3 weeks from now the death toll will rise drastically in Germany. There are even many cases, especially of younger people without previous morbidity, which have not that bad symptoms first, seem to recover for some hours to days, then they collapse and get lung failure, multi-organ failure, sepsis etc.
I hope I'm wrong, but in 2-3 weeks, if the isolation measures have too little effect in Germany, the situation will be very bad with hundreds and up to thousands of death. Without measures rising to hundreds of thousands.
Let me come back to my "number crunching" exercise. First, I have to excuse for a small yet crucial mistake: I forgot to consider the "dampening effect" on infection rates that occurs after a relevant part of the population has already dealt with the infection. As such, figures will be less dramatic, but still dramatic enough. Here's the update:
Scenario 1: No lock-down, infection rate 2-2.5 (possibly its higher, than figures would be more dramtic):
- Health system overload starting between April, 25 and May, 5
- 20,000 deaths reached by May, 12
- Peak overcome (health system capacities sufficient again) between August,7 and September, 15
- Pandemy runs out between mid-October and late December
850.000-970.000 dead
Scenario 2: Lock-down reduces infection rate by 30%
- Health system overload starting between May,8 and June,15
- 20,000 deaths reached during second week of June
- Peak overcome (health system capacities sufficient again) between late October and late January
- Pandemy runs out between late January and March (when, hopefully, vaccination will be available)
500.000-750.000 dead
Scenario 3a: Infection rate reduced to 1.25 by radical measures, e.g. curfews, factory closures
- Health system overload starting between mid-July and early August
- 20,000 deaths reached by early September
- Health System in overload until at least early May 2021 (but, hopefully, vaccination will be available earlier)
310.000-330.000 dead
Obviously economically and politically unfeasible - you can't almost completely curb down economic and social activities for a full year
Scenario 4: "Self-immunisation" of under 40s (plus mild lock-down for the remainder)
- Health system overload starting between May,13 and June,20
- 20,000 deaths reached quickly, already during the "self-immunisation" phase
- Peak overcome (health system capacities sufficient again) between early October and late December
- Pandemy runs out between late December and March (when, hopefully, vaccination will be available)
280.000-410.000 dead
I said that because you seem to play it down for young people, but even in this age class, the true numbers will be calculated once the death toll rises and you can tell no one, even people without previous health problems and of young age, that they are safe. It would be a lie. If 95 percent doing well, you still end up with 5 percent in hospital and 0,1-0,5 dead, depending on various circumstances. About one in 20 will be in trouble, even among the young otherwise healthy. That's far worse than the flu.
A simple, straightforward comparison of the numbers:
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/13/21176735/covid-19-coronavirus-worse-than-flu-comparison
And your scenarios are flawed for a variety of reasons: The curve can be flattened more effectively if isolation being taken serious for about 2 months and testing and medical facilities capacities being increased.
Probably even better treatments being available in a couple of weeks, more respirators, more intensive care units and probably most important, a warmer weather. So in an optimistic scenario, you lockdown for some weeks to flatten the curve, even eliminate some local and regional herds, getting more experience and efficiency with treatments and containment, plus profiting from warmer weather.
@David, I was told that the genotypes for the Sirak study will be available on the Reich lab datasets page in the next few days. This includes the Terramare R-L51 sample and the R-Z93 Romanian Copper Age sample and others. Keep an eye out for it.
Zardos: " I tell you in 2-3 weeks from now the death toll will rise drastically in Germany."
Acc. to my calcs, provided the current measures have some effects, daily deaths will surpass 100 around May,8, and 500 around May 23.
"To argue for the quick self-infection of the younger population is totally irresponible."
It would be, if there is reason to assume that they can otherwise avoid infection. But I think most of them will anyway be infected sooner or later. Just look at the map - where do most of them live? Yes: Big cities, with corresponding large infection risk, and little chance of containment. I mean: All German islands have been closed now to tourists, in order to keep at least them free of infections (something that in all likelyhood cannot be held up over the summer, otherwise people there are medically alive, but economically dead). But, for lack of higher education institutions on these islands, most of the 15-25 years old islanders are either daily/weekly commuting to the mainland, or have anyway already left already. And- there are a number of counties w/o any reported Sars-CoV-2 cases yet, e.g. in North Brandenburg. That's the same area that has since long been infamous for massive emigration, especially of young people.
So what I am actually talking about is:
a) Instead of 60 % (rather 65%, considering the geographic distribution) of under 40s getting anyway infected, let it be 80% (which is what my scenario is built upon), and
b) Let this happen early, when the health system has still sufficient capacity to adequately deal with complications, instead of them arriving at the peak of the crisis, when neither enough Respirators, nor (healthy) doctors and nurses are available anymore.
It may sound cynical (but actually, all work with mortality figures quickly leads to cynicsim): My calculation indicates that by "sacrificing" some 10,000 under 40s (15% of 35 million at 0,2% mortality), 230-330 thousand elder lives may be saved, and the period of health system collapse (that btw. will also drive up other fatalities, e.g. related to heart attacks, cancer or traffic accidents) can be shortened by a good month.
Moreover - this will ultimately a decision by each individual. And they will take this decision by balancing their personal risk against the "psychological cost" of restricted access to social contact (including grandparents), education, entertainment, and sexual partners for the foreseaable future (possibly a year or so, otherwise the whole "containment strategy" will fail).
Last but not least: I don't see any alternative. You can't keep kindergardens, schools, universities, hotels, car factories, clothing shops etc. closed until the peak is over, because it won't be over before late October at earliest.
Btw: I am not the only one proposing such a strategy. I learnt yesterday that one of Germany's leading economists, Thomas Straubhaar has been proposing it as well. F.U. Montomery, President of the World Medical Association and previously leading the German Chamber of Medicals, is apparently also thinking into this direction.
https://www.daserste.de/information/talk/maischberger/videos/maischberger-die-woche-video-260.html, at 52:31
Any young person infected might need intensive care in a hospital, so even if not dying, this person will have a horrible time and barely surviving, infecting medical personell. Additionally, every young person getting sick will be a loss to the economy, even in highly important fields which are now relatively safe.
Also, by letting people get infected, you create new sources, new local herds for the infection and they will, without a doubt, jump over to elderly and vulnerable persons. I tell you, it won't work out, but will lead to a much faster and more radical spread with more impaired and dead people in ALL AGE CLASSES in comparison to a containment strategy.
It won't work out economically neither, because the rapid spread of the disease, the many sick people, the panic and distrust, the medical and social breakdown will affect the economy and society even harder than a lockdown for 1-3 months.
There is no easy way out of this, and we all might be wrong about the ideal strategy to deal with the problem, but your assumptions and the idea of "herd immunity" by letting the young getting infected will lead to a catastrophy you will regret from ANY perspective, the human, the social, the economic. It won't work out any better, that's guaranteed. And its a reckless and criminal act as long as we can have hope for better treatment, improved medical capacities, probably even vaccines and of course warmer weather with, quite likely, a much lower infectiousness than now.
We can lower the risk and spread dramatically if we buy time and reduce the spread, probably even eliminate some herds. Now is the worst time to let it go, we must contain it, we must keep up isolation. The weather will become ideal for the spread of Covid-19 again with temperatures going down in the next days:
https://www.wetter.com/wetter_aktuell/wettervorhersage/7_tagesvorhersage/deutschland/muenchen/DE0006515.html
Even if the weather effect might not be that big as hoped for, it will drastically reduce the infectiousness. That's, in my opinion, a given by now. So it will get even easier to effectively contain the virus, while working on the other fields (vaccination, treatments, capacities, testing methods etc.) if keeping the spread down for the next weeks. Really, now is the worst possible time to spread the virus. No one should sabotage the efforts for containing it now. Your scenarios are worthless if considering the factors mentioned. To keep it down for the next weeks will make a huge difference.
This is the Straubhaar article calling for "controlled infection" (in German):
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206586337/Coronavirus-Kontrollierte-Infizierung-ist-die-beste-Strategie.html
Otherwise, Zardos: "Your scenarios are flawed for a variety of reasons: The curve can be flattened more effectively if isolation being taken serious for about 2 months (..)" This is already modelled in my Scenario 2. The problem is: Flattening also means prolongation. And there isn't much point in flattening for just two months (o.k., you delay the onset of the health system crisis by one month), and then release the measures just when the situation is starting to become bad. If you want the flattening strategy to work, you have to accept that isolation measures will have to last until at least next Christmas.
"..and testing and medical facilities capacities being increased." Testing - yes. As such, gaining another month is certainly worthwhile trying. When it comes to medical facilities, acquiring more respirators should also be possible (Draeger, one of the leading manufacturers, reported a slight turnover drop for 2019 and should have some spare production capacity). The problem will be doctors, and even more so nurses. Already now, a good part of nurses come from Poland, Ukraine, more recently also Italy, and I can't see how recruiting additional staff from abroad can be aligned with border closings..
"Probably even better treatments being available in a couple of weeks.." Probably? Not sure. Hopefully, yes. Is it responsible to base political decision making on hope? I mean - I am optimistic when it comes to progress until the end of the year..
".. probably most important, a warmer weather. " You mean, the kind of weather that so far has saved Egypt, Brazil or Indonesia from being affected by the pandemy? Oh-wait: 6 more fatalities in Indonesia, and a 25% increase in registered cases, per today. Spring has arrived in Iran, the pandemy is still there. Gaska- what was the weather like in Spain over the last days?
@epoch,"Before this becomes a silly discussion: Merkel stated that this was the most serious crisis since WW2, therefore explicitely not comparing it to WW2."
But the thing is to compare cornavirus to WW2 in any shape or form is blasphemy. Especially if the German PM does it. Germany was at the center of WW2 obviously but has few cornavirus cases. This i snothing compared to WW2.
@Frank: Concerning the weather what really matters are community infections and the R0 in a given setting. And there is every reason to see a huge difference between regions with more UV-rays, warmer temperatures and higher air humidity. That doesn't mean the infection rate will drop to zero at all, but it means that such conditions make containment, even the erradication of the virus much easier and in any case the spread slower.
There is no single large outbreak so far under such climatic conditions in combination with a responsible acting state. Or do you want to tell me that countries like Kenia, Nigeria, India, Vietnam and Indonesia did a so much better job in containing the virus than Switzerland, Korea, Japan, the USA and Germany?
It doesn't matter that they have cases, it doesn't matter that they have infections from within the community, as long as the numbers are so low it means the weather makes a big difference. There is no other explanation, especially if considering that there were a lot of Chinese contacts present for sure.
The weather makes a big difference for the R0, I'm pretty sure about that and I'm not the only one.
I think everybody should know by now, but the grave mistake was to not act immediately, when the news from China came in. The authorities should have quarantaned China as China did quarantine Wuhan/Hubei. Later the same should have been done with Italy immediately, but didn't happen in time once more.
Every authority just tried to be more ignorant and don't spread panic at any cost, saving money and working for the economy short term. Now the costs are the multiple of what would have been necessary to contain the plague and people still want to escalate to the next level, without containment and without realising that this too will make it even worse in every respect.
"If you want the flattening strategy to work, you have to accept that isolation measures will have to last until at least next Christmas."
It might be necessary to keep up some measures that long, but the curve might flatten and many herds being eliminated so that a quasi normal economy and social functioning with just mild limitations is possible. And that's the bad scenario where the weather doesn't help out big time and the technical-medical progress is rather limited.
You can keep the dieases on a low level, the problem was that practically nothing was done in Europe until the epidemic was rolling. If you can contain it in the next 1-3 months, chances are high that you can contain it with quarantine and isolation of suspected patients and massive testing, similar to Korea until a vaccination is feasable. If the weather helps out, the situation would be even better.
They just need to develop an effective routine for testing and quarantine of suspected cases and the strict controls of travel and migration, as they should have done anyway. To let planes full with tourists and workers from China fly to Europe, especially Italy, even from the provinces in China which were known to be infected, without quarantine, without any effective measures, was grossly negligent. As are the ideas of developing unrestrained herd immunity with better options at hand.
And the hopes are not irrational, they are likely scenarios and actually more likely than doing better with the unrestrained spread of the disease, which will overwhelm our health system, society and economy with many unnecessary, preventable dead and impaired people.
Now, for anybody still thinking that SARS-CoV-2 may be contained in Germany, here a look at some of the German hot-spots. Base is the latest RKI map of infection density per 100.000 inhabitants:
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-03-19-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
Rank 1 - Heinsberg County: Talked about it before, no Need to repeat me here. Suffice to say that
(i) one of the early fatalities, in Düsseldorf, was traced back to having been infected in Heinsberg;
(ii) the Aachen area, just south of it, is now also displaying elevated infection rates, and
(iii) spread from Heinsberg westwards into the Netherlands and Belgium is likely (Epoch - you may know more about that)
Rank 2 - Hohenlohe County (BW): A rather rural county north-east of Heidelberg, and Künzelsau isn't at all the kind of small town that you would expect at the center of a pandemy. Infection figures have certainly been blown up by the County having installed a drive-in testing facility last weekend. OTOH, according to local newspapers, the testing lab is hardly able to cope with local demand, and only updating infection figures every 2-3 days. As such, their (already very high figures) date to Tuesday evening, and will in all likelyhood rise considerably further with the next update.
The bad news here is that Hohenlohe isn't just delivering high infection rates, but has also provided for one of the first COVID-19 deaths in Germany, indicating that the Virus may have been present already for quite some time. Nobody seems to have an idea yet about the infection chain, and the opportunity for effective contamination is probably over. We might in fact deal with a direct import from China - the Würth Group with global headquarters in Künzelsau has several operations in China, albeit none in Wuhan, and there are a number of smaller automotive suppliers in the County. Whatever the source - if the Würth Group with subsidiaries in 80 countries around the globe should have been (or will get) involved, this might become of global relevance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Würth
Rank 3 - Ebersberg County (Bav): Another rural County - this one in "Franconian Switzerland" N of Nuremberg close to the Czech border. On February 28th, a local businessman with contacts to Italy had himself tested voluntarily and was found to be positive for SARS-CoV-2. Since then, 44 more infected were found, and nearly 200 people are currently quarantined. Chances for local containment are IMO still good.
Rank 4 - the lower Mosel between Cochem and Koblenz (RP): A cluster of three adjacent counties - Cochem, Mayen-Koblenz and Koblenz City proper. The state of Rhineland-Palatinate on March 10 started a pilot project for ambulant testing here, which certainly drove up infection numbers compared to adjacent counties. OTOH, there has been one early COVID-19 fatality from the Koblenz area. As such, it is currently unclear whether we are dealing with a yet unrecognised hot-spot, or simply with the effects of better testing. No "Patient Zero" has been identified yet for the area, and it is probably too late for effective containment.
Rank 5 - Freising County (Bav): Located on Munichs northern periphery, Freising displays one of the most dramatic developments at the moment. Not only are infection rates rising quickly (w/o any specific local testing efforts so far), the county also reported two fatalities today. No "Patient Zero" appears to be known. Munich International Airport lies just on the County border, and might have played a role. In addition, the County a/o hosts several BMW factories, the European HQ of Texas Instruments, and numerous DIY and furniture markets. I deem it extremely unlikely that this hotspot will remain local. At best, it may be contained to the Munich area, at worst it will (via Munich Airport) gain national or even international relevance.
An epidemic like that of Covid-19 can be contained by famishment. You just need to take social isolation seriously, let it go within families and social networks which are already unsavable but not letting it get any further, tracing down every new herd, even individual case.
Korea is does just half the job, with massive testing, case isolation and security measures. If you combine the Korean efforts with the isolation you see in Bavaria and Austria, you can be successful even if the virus has a limited spread in a community. More effective and efficient testing methods are key and can be developed.
Its absolutely doable. You seem to simply not care too much, for whatever reason, don't want to try. for whatever reason.
But letting it go will be much more dramatic than what I propose and result in a human, health, societal and economic catastrophy the same time. To make it clear: Economic damage is not preventable anyway, human suffering and victims on the other hand can be prevented. And better having a controlled economic impact than an uncontrolled situation which will backfire on the economy for sure.
Zardos - re weather:
I aggree that the weather will be of relevance in two respects:
1. Better weather contains other viral respiratory infections such as the flu and parainfluenza, thereby freeing capacities for dealing with SARS-CoV-2. So far, the 2019/20 flu season in Germany has been mild (some 260 deaths to date), and it appears to have reached its peak last week, but it's not yet over completely. As such, any efforts to delay the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis to after the flu season are certainly worthwhile.
2. For all we know, overheated, low-humidity rooms as typical for the winter provide for longer survival times of vira in the air then do open spaces (irrespectively of how warm/cold these open spaces are). As such, the more people encounter each other in the outside and not inside buildings, the lower the infection risk. As such, Spring may reduce the infection risk (and street markets are in this respect certainly preferable to supermarkets) - provided our politicians will be wise enough to withstand their urge for demonstrating "leadership potential" by declaring curfews. If people meet in beergardens or go jogging together, their infection risk is certainly lower than when they visit each other's home, and one of the most stupid things some States (e.g. NRW, but not Berlin) did was closing public playgrounds.
Having said that - remember that the closest relatives to SARS-COV-2 are the SARS and the MERS viruses. SARS flourished in sub-tropical China, and I suppose I don't have to educate you on the Middle Eastern Climate..
As such, the hope that SARS-CoV-2 will go away just because it isn't adapted to warmer climate is extremely poorly founded.
Natsunoame: We apparently don't understand each other well. In order to avoid further misunderstanding, I will not react anymore to your comments unless feeling you had something meaningful to say.
I didn't say it will just go away, but its infectiousness will drop significantly, making any effort much more promising and the weather we will get in Central Europe the next days is the worst you can have in the face of Covid-19.
I repeat that there is, so far, no highly affected region in which there is an effective administration and a favourable climate. Only community infections matter - imported cases don't count at all, only very limited spread in very close contact, like within families, is not as important neither.
Brazil for example has mostly imported cases and most cases centered in Sao Paulo:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Brazil
It is no big time spread like in the European countries, not at all (so far at least) and I doubt it will become as bad before the winter season in the South of Brazil begins. I'm less optimistic for countries like Argentina if the winter season starts and the medical solutions are still insufficient.
Actually even the progression of the disease in those infected might be influenced by the temperatures and humidity imho. But we will see once the temperatures and humidity will rise in the Northern temperate zone. The only weather which is almost as bad as the temperate cold might be, if its similar to the flu, the rainy season actually. But that's no closed case of course, there is still a lot to know about the virus.
Definitely no time to take it easy and let it spread.
What's the death rate in Italy now?
Zardos: "An epidemic like that of Covid-19 can be contained by famishment. You just need to take social isolation seriously, "
No general disagreement. But if you miss the right moment, it's over, and you Need to look for alternative strategies.
More specifically: I have mentionned the case of my daughter, whose flat-mate messed around with a guy that was later diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2. That flat-mate hasn't yet been quarantined, not even contacted by the Berlin Health Service. And when she herself tried to contact the hotline, it was busy for two days. When she finally came through, she was taken onto the waiting list for testing. All this happened some 10 days after the possible infection date.
Now, my understanding (yours may differ) is: The Berlin Health Service has given up any hope that "tracing down and isolating" strategy is still workable (or- alternatively - lacks resources for effective implementation). In Hamburg, it seems to be the same (I spare those here not interested in my family the story). Don't know about Munich, but the Freising situation reported above doesn't sound encouraging. Cologne: 586 infected (up from 54 a week ago), 9 quarantined.
So, Germany's four largest cities apparently have given up any hope (and/or lack resources) for individualised containment. Add to that the Freiburg curfew, today's drastical measures in Leipzig and Münster, my more rural examples from above, plus additional runner-ups for local hotspots such as Fulda or Borken (infections there almost four-folded today), previously unrecognised, only post-mortem diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Hamburg Metro, etc., and the conclusion is clear:
Containment is a good idea. It worked reasonably well for 1-2 months in Germany, and may still work in some areas, e.g. Ebersberg or NW Brandenburg. However, overall, it has reached its limits, and does not anymore represent a viable strategy against the Virus. Opportunities for famishment - to the extent they ever existed - have been missed. Now we will have to face the pandemy unfolding in all its brutality!
@Davidski
According to the John Hopkins dashboard and as of right now (10:00 EST), the death rate of confirmed cases in Italy is 8.2%. 3,405 dead divided by 41,035 confirmed cases.
The death rate is a bit bogus though. 33k are still active in Italy. If current trends continue, it'll go way up.
OTOH, if you relate deaths to the total number of tested persons, you get to "just" 1.86% (and remember, these tests can only identify active infections, not those that have already been passed successfully). It's probably too early for any kind of conclusion.
Anyway, if those tested are representative of the total population, the recognised infection rate is now approaching 25%.
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-andamento-nazionale/dpc-covid19-ita-andamento-nazionale.csv
Does anybody have information on the age structure of the infected and/or deceased?
@FrankN said... ''Does anybody have information on the age structure of the infected and/or deceased?''
Median age of the infected is 63 (Median age in Italy: 46). 96% of deaths was >60 yo, 99% was >50 yo:
www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_19marzo%20ENG.pdf
Death rate (CFR) by region:
LOMBARDY: 10.9% (2,168 deaths)
EMILIA-ROMAGNA: 10.2% (531 deaths)
LIGURIA: 8.6% (91 deaths)
MARCHE: 6.6% (115 deaths)
PIEDMONT: 6% (175 deaths)
FRIULI-VENEZIA GIULIA: 6% (36 deaths)
APULIA: 5.2% (25 deaths)
LAZIO: 4.6% (38 deaths)
MOLISE: 4.3% (2 deaths)
VENETO: 3.3% (115 deaths)
SOUTH TYROL: 3.2% (14 deaths)
ABRUZZO: 2.9% (11 deaths)
AOSTA VALLEY: 2.8% (6 deaths)
TUSCANY: 2.6% (38 deaths)
CAMPANIA: 2.6% (17 deaths)
TRENTINO: 2.3% (12 deaths)
CALABRIA: 1.8% (3 deaths)
SICILY: 1.2% (4 deaths)
SARDINIA: 1% (2 deaths)
UMBRIA: 0.6% (2 deaths)
BASILICATA: 0% (0 deaths)
Tests per million by region:
VENETO: 9,103 (3.3% death rate)
SOUTH TYROL: 6,717 (3.2% death rate)
LOMBARDY: 5,193 (10.9% death rate)
AOSTA VALLEY: 4,838 (2.8% death rate)
EMILIA-ROMAGNA: 4,113 (10.2% death rate)
TRENTINO: 4,071 (2.3% death rate)
FRIULI-VENEZIA GIULIA: 3,334 (6% death rate)
MARCHE: 2,958 (6.6% death rate)
TUSCANY: 2,379 (2.6% death rate)
UMBRIA: 2,215 (0.6% death rate)
LIGURIA: 2,159 (8.6% death rate)
PIEDMONT: 2,032 (6% death rate)
LAZIO: 1,896 (4.6% death rate)
ABRUZZO: 1,837 (2.9% death rate)
MOLISE: 1,394 (4.3% death rate)
CALABRIA: 1,203 (1.8% death rate)
APULIA: 1,004 5.2% death rate)
SARDINIA: 814 (1% death rate)
SICILY: 792 (1.2% death rate)
BASILICATA: 627 (0% death rate)
CAMPANIA: 611 (2.6% death rate)
stadionews.it/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/bolettino-19-marzo-1.jpeg
Hi,
An update from Norway.
Today the number of hospital patients with corona virus (104 cases) is about surpass the number of hospital patients with regular flu (119 cases).
Media report that Norway has had the 4th most intensive testing program globally. This might explain the low number of deaths (7 cases) compared to the number of confirmed positive cases (1781). We might have better overview of total cases compared to most other countries, though so far we don’t have transmission under control. Austria (6/2013) and Germany (44/15 320) have simar low number fatalities out of confirmed positive cases.
By far most of tests have been negative, with around 1781 positive out of 34 583 tests. For a week now, the statistics have been affected by a lower testing activity, because we were running out of test kits, but new supplies have arrived and in the next few days the number positive cases should jump up.
In the last few days Switzerland and Spain have surpassed Norway in number of confirmed positive cases out of total population.
It seems the government restrictions and aggressive testing regime have stalled the growth rate, which was explosive around March 9. - 11. when number of cases almost doubled twice in two days. Aggressive containment policies were enacted from March 13. One week after unemployment rate has jumped up to highest level since WW2. Kindergartens, schools and universities, hair dressers and gyms are closed. Bars and restaurants are operating under tight restrictions.
The next few days will be crucial: now results will come in after the new batch of test kits have been available, and the trend of positive cases is allready rising again.
Buses and metro/subway are a lot less crowded than before. The place where I saw most people yesterday was in a big park around a protected nature preserve with a lake and wetlands. This has allready been criticised in the news.
There are not many more police or other official personnel visible outside, as far as I can tell. But the government has deployed national guard at places such as airports and borders, and they have threatened to use force to expell people who go on mountain cabin vacation outside their own resident municipality, out of concern for the limited health infrastructure of normally sparsely populated mountain regions.
Spain
Madrid- 6.777 cases-498 deaths-7,34%
Pais Vasco- 1.190-53 deaths-4,45%
Cataluña-3.270-82 deaths-2,5%
La Rioja-468 cases-5 deaths-1,06%
Valencia-921 cases-23 deaths-2,49%
Andalucia-1.008 cases-23 deaths-2,28%
Castilla y Leon-868-43 deaths-4,95%
Castilla la Mancha-1.044-62 deaths-5,93%
Aragón-281-15 deaths-5,33%
Islas Canarias-287- 4 deaths-1,39%
Cantabria-83 cases-1-1,20%
Islas Baleares-169 cases-2 deaths-1,18%
Asturias-292 cases-3 deaths-1.03%
Extremadura-241 cases-9 deaths-3.73%
Galicia-45.5 deaths-1.10 %
Navarra-482-4 deaths-0,82%
Murcia-215 cases- NO deaths-0%
Ceuta-5 cases- No deaths
Melilla-23 cases-No deaths
The most serious situation is occurring in the Madrid region, especially in the capital with almost collapsed hospitals- Hotels equipped with ventilators are already being used-
In Madrid, the death rate is similar to northern Italy. Regarding the ages, all over 69 years except 5 cases- a nurse (52), 2 police officers (37 and 58 years), without previous pathologies, a 21 year old with leukemia, and this morning, a 22 year old also with serious health problems .
Regarding the weather, this past week it snowed in the north of the country (20 cm), but the virus is also strong in the south of the country where winter has been especially warm.
The most serious situation in Madrid, the rest of the regions, thanks to the lockdown, seem to have controlled the epidemic
@David, t seems that Australia has closed borders, it is a good decision, Good luck.
My opinion about the right way to confront the policy dilemma is the same as mentioned earlier, atleast in the case of Norway:
Keep a small geographical section of the country open without economic restrictions (but with guidelines of care in place, especially for risk groups to self-isolate), let the national health system deal with that locally managed curve spike, and local herd immunity will kick in after about 1-2 months, and move to next geographical sections one by one, gradually reopening the economy.
I think that is a reasonable compromise between lock-down of the whole economy and unchecked epidemic wave in open economy. The key is to break up the wave in smaller localized waves the total health infrastructure can handle.
Now, if the new cases drop significantly in the next days and weeks to such an extent that free community transmission seems to have ended, then I might reconsider full eradication by a month of national lock-down as a viable option.
@Sam
20000 deaths?! Are you living in a fantasy world? We'll have reached the 20000 deathtoll in Europe by the end of the month.
There already more than 5000 deaths in Europe, and the rate is still increasing (108 yesterday in France, and we'll reach 200/300 per day in a few days). In Italy it's more than 450 per day.
Be not mistaken: other european countries will follow. Germany, Norway,... are only at a more early stage of epidemy. Deathtoll will rise in the next days. As we see in South Korea since few days.
By the way, it is more and more clear that the Iran is the most worrying case now: number of contaminated is probably higher than in China, and far more than in any European country. Official numbers are probably a tenth (minimum) of real numbers. COVID 19 is completely out of control there.
If it reaches 40,000 deaths, Cornavirus would still not even be close toWW2. It's a stupid comparison to make. Stop being melodramatic.
@Sam: You will rarely find me defending Merkel, but she said SINCE (!) WW2 and that's probably true, because since the Great War, especially since the end of the Cold War, there was no crisis like that in postwar Germany. This will prove to be the greatest challenge since decades for Germany, Europe, probably the world. There are in my opinion bigger systemic problems lurking around, but these too will be worsened by the epidemic. It might prove to be a catalyst, especially if the authorities don't act in a decisive and reasonable way.
@Frank: The problem with playgrounds is kids which stick together, touch each other, speak with each other at a small distance. So the measure is not completely insane, because crowded playgrounds with many small children would be breeding grounds.
As for the rest: We are in the worst weather conditions and still largely unprepared, with lack of knowledge, facilities, effective treatment and preventive actions (vaccination). Now is the worst time to let it go, to bring it down, to flatten the curve and eliminate local/regional herds is possible and should be done. There is no reasonable alternative to isolation for 1-2 months right now. Everything else will destabilise more and cost more lives and health.
@Boppo Waldbruckner
This is no time for experiments, except for those working on cures and vaccines.
@Sam
I don't like Macron (not at all), and he is making many mistakes. But as Merkel he is right about saying that COVID 19 is the worst crisis in Europe since WWII. This is not a comparison between COVID 19 and WWII.
And I am factual, not melodramatic. From Pr Salomon, number of contaminated is doubling each 4 days in France. And people are dying everyday. It is not melodrama, it is tragedy.
Well, that's because there's been no 'real' crisis in Europe since WW2. That doesn't mean Cornavrius is a big crisis. I think it's a mistake to even compare in anyway to WW2. It's not a war, it isn't in the same category as a war, so shouldn't be talked about alongside WW2.
WW2 is just being used as a timestamp not a comparison.
Sam,
Your comprehension of what was meant by the statement is quite poor. Anyway, you also clearly don't understand exponential growth. We are weeks from the peak where many thousands will die each day. Well over 1000 die everyday right now. This number doubles every 3-4 days. This IS the most serious threat to the world since WWII.
There were and are much bigger threats in the last decades, but those were all about conflicts and natural disasters which eventually were brought under control, like the Cuba crisis. It was about simple political decisions to get it under control.
This is the first crisis which might actually get out of political control and escalate to the next level.
So its the biggest crisis since WW2 which is more than a threat. It has practical and drastic consequences regardless of how governments react.
Now its just about limiting the damage and every wrong decision might break hell lose.
Contrary to the past it was and still is about decisions being taken in advance and sometimes within hours.
That's different from most crises we had in the last decades, when politicians had less of a pressure pushing them. This already showed the Western political weakness to come to quick and decisive decision making with anticipatory measures and longer term orientation. Most just failed and now we have a growing mess.
@Samuel Andrews
Coming to a town near you within weeks or maybe less...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Os1TJHJ_ijc
Coronavirus Spreading:
https://corona.katapult-magazin.de/
@FrankN
"spread from Heinsberg westwards into the Netherlands and Belgium is likely (Epoch - you may know more about that)"
From what I know there was a Fasching party in Selfkant (where the local dialect is similar to Limburg) and the Limburg cluster is tied to it. I'm not sure how the Heinsberg cluster is tied to that but is tied. The Noord-Brabant hotspot is tied to people returning from ski holidays en spreading it during Carnival.
@Gaska
"Forget about China and the Asian countries, they apparently have controlled the epidemic and "
Only the Peoples Republic of China has to do that. And at this point my mood is to not forgive them. Never again. They tried to conceal SARS, and they did it again. Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me.
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
The first case was noticed in November in a family, where three members became ill with pneumonia. No bacterial pneumonia is contagious. No known virus was detected.
They gambled that it wasn't deadly as Wuhan is major industrial hub, and that they would manage t contain it unnoticed. Never ever trust the government of the PRC again. Never.
Just talked to my tenant, who is an ambulance paramedic. He has noted a substantial increase in psychic disorders and (stress-induced) heart attacks over the last days.
For the same reason, the President of the German Medical Chamber (representing medical practitioners) has warned against too lengthy and too strict (e.g. curfews) interventions into the daily life. The resulting psychological pressure could become too strong, and ultimately counter-productive.
Obviously, we will be getting towards another trade-off. What's the point in substantially slowing down the Corona-related pressure on hospitals, if it instead triggers an significant increase in heart attacks that will equally absorb intensive care capacities? Let's see how our politicians deal with this dilemma..
Otherwise, an update on German hotspots (source: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/ - click on "Landkreise" (counties) in the top right selection):
a) I mistook Tirschenreuth County for Ebersberg County, which is located further south. Tirschenreuth has now provided one fatality (plus one more in neighbouring Wunsiedel). No "Patient Zero" is known. A curfew was ordered on Wednesday for the most affected town, Mitterteich.
b.) Freiburg i.B. and adjacent Emmendingen (2 fatalities so far) are also affected over proportion - presumably a spill-over across the Rhine from Alsace.
c.) Aside from Freising in the northern Munich periphery, Starnberg SW of Munich is also heavily affected. Starnberg is the seat of WEBASTO, whose staff brought the first known SARS-CoV-2 cases from Wuhan to Germany.
d.) The strong increase in Calw (northern Black Forest, no fatalities yet) probably relates to the recent installation of a local drive-in testing facility, but nevertheless demonstrates the extent to which the Virus has already spread into peripheral regions.
e.) In Miesbach County in the Bavarian Alps, for lack of sufficient laboratory capacities, several hundred test results are still standing out. The local governor expects the current tally of 58 infected to rise to around 300, once the tests have been analysed. Spill-over from neighbouring Tirol, and via weekend ski tourists from the Munich area, might provide explanations.
f.) Last but not least, Munich has now surpassed Hamburg and taken rank 1 in terms of infected per 100,000 inhabitants among Germany's major cities.
Otherwise, an update on my (possibly SARS-CoV-2 infected) daughter in Berlin: Berlin has installed a few walk-in testing centers, but these are currently overcrowded, and standing in line for a few hours with lots of potentially infected isn't the best way to reduce infection risk. As such, she has decided for self-isolation at home.
At the moment, she is gaining quite a good income with WhatsApp-based tutoring of high-school kids, and actually wouldn't be too unhappy if schools remained closed for a bit longer...
Well, Turkey was one of the latest influenced countries and we took cautions supposedly early but still, it's been only 10 days and the confirmed number of cases are now 670 and 9 people died. Yesterday it was 359. Go figure how fast it spreads.
Given to the circumstances, I guess most people will sooner or later get caught to it. We still don't know how much damage the virus causes to your body even if you survive from it. That's the worrying part.
Word is Germany's low death total is partly attributed to no post-mortem testing. Not sure how it could be verified 100%, but I wouldn't doubt it.
Chad: "Word is Germany's low death total is partly attributed to no post-mortem testing. Not sure how it could be verified 100%, but I wouldn't doubt it.
Well - that "word" apparently goes back to a statement by the (neofascist) Fratelli d'Italia in the European Parliament.
What seems to be true that post-mortem testing for COVID-19 is theory mandatory in Italy, albeit not always done in practice, as suggested here
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh/uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2152V0
In Germany, testing is only conducted for those who have died in hospital or are otherwise suspect of having died to the Virus. As such, there may have been a few fatalities that were overlooked in Germany.
The RKI's main explanation for the letality difference observed so far between Italy and Germany is that Germany had adopted a different prevention/ testing strategy. Here, the focus was on the early identification of potential "Patients Zero", and systematic screening of all their known contacts, including children, for potential infection. This a.o. lead to a much younger age of identified infected, which, as mortality is strongly age-dependent, automatically results in a lower letality rate.
As per tonights official RKI statistics, positively-tested in Germany had the following age structure (numbers approximated and rounded):
0-14 years: 3%
15-34 years: 26%
25-59 years: 56%
60-79 years: 14%
80+ years: 2%
So far, all the deceased in Germany were older than 65 years of age; the mean age was 81. As such, the current mortality may come close to 10% in the 80+ age group, but has so far been zero for under-60, which account for more than 5/6th of all tested positively.
In Italy, in contrast, most patients were only tested when they already had developed symptoms. Actually, given the current situation in Italy, I could even imagine that much of the testing relates to patients with critical symptoms. It would be interesting to see a testing breakdown by age groups for Italy - does anybody have access to such data?
@ FrankN
“ For the same reason, the President of the German Medical Chamber (representing medical practitioners) has warned against too lengthy and too strict (e.g. curfews) interventions into the daily life. The resulting psychological pressure could become too strong, and ultimately counter-productive.
Obviously, we will be getting towards another trade-off. What's the point in substantially slowing down the Corona-related pressure on hospitals, if it instead triggers an significant increase in heart attacks that will equally absorb intensive care capacities? Let's see how our politicians deal with this dilemma..”
That’s absurd, and medically very rare. 2 generations ago people were in a world war, currently people just need to lay low
Heart failure including multi organ dysfunction is far more likely to be due to this infection then a few hysterical cases of Tsakatsubo syndrome
@Frank
To me,the lower lethality in Germany is lileky the result of an earlier stage of epidemy, and an undertesting in Italy, France and Spain (it is assumed in France). But it does also seem that Germany is not testing dead people. In any case, COVID 19 cases in Germany seem to be on an exponential trend. And very few recovered cases. Which is backing the idea that epidemy has just begun. Fatality will therefore rise sharply in 2/3 weeks.
Folker "Very few recovered cases [in Germany]"
That's not true! The issue is that all infections have to be reported to the RKI, but recovery doesn't have to (and typically isn't, as the Health Offices are busy enough). As such, you won't find any official numbers on recoveries. The recovery data provided, e.g., by https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ comes from a newspaper that is occasionally trying to collect local recovery information but, e.g., missed a case from Rostock that - being a State Assembly member - received quite some TV coverage the day before yesterday. Another example, also missing in their data, is Celle county, where 5 (out of 36 infected) have fully recovered so far:
https://www.cellesche-zeitung.de/Celle/Aus-der-Stadt/Celle-Stadt/Celle-wegen-Coronavirus-im-Krisenmodus-Restaurants-werden-geschlossen
Equally missing are those ten infected that were yesterday released from quarantine in Kalrsruhe:
https://www.ka-news.de/region/karlsruhe/coronavirus-karlsruhe./Gute-Nachrichten-Zehn-Corona-Patienten-im-Stadt-und-Landkreis-Karlsruhe-aus-Quarantaene-entlassen;art6066,2512411
and there is dozens more of such reports, once you start screening local newspapers.
Technically, the reporting passes through two stages: One day for the lab/authorising doctor to report to the local Health Office, and another one for the Health Office to report to the RKI. When furthermore considering that the lab needs at least one day to process the test, and RKI updates its data by midnight, all official figures represent tests taken at least 4 days earlier. Now, in Germany release from quarantine is granted 17 days after the infection has been diagnosed (other countries, e.g. Japan, work with 14 days of quarantine). As such, all of the 902 cases reported by the RKI on March 8 (i.e. were tested latest on March 4th) should by today either have died (which some 10 or so did), be in long-term hospital treatment (which possibly a handful are) or be considered as having fully recovered.
"it does also seem that Germany is not testing dead people. " It does. In several cases, the infection was only identified post mortem.
"In any case, COVID 19 cases in Germany seem to be on an exponential trend." They certainly are. The doubling time of infection numbers is 2.9 days. Interestingly, the doubling time is going up in some of the most affected states, e.g. NRW, Baden-Würtemberg and Hamburg, while now Lower Saxony, Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt gain speed. Most worrysome in this respect is Bavaria, more specifically the Munich area, where the infection rate grows quickly from an already high base.
https://www.datawrapper.de/_/TxHt7/
@ all
In San Marino and Italy the situation is really dramatic... I'm not at home now, because I'm blocked in Lombardy because of the virus.
Here in Lombardy many physicians are calling for help, because the dramatica situation of hospitals forces them to choose who can take intensive care treatment and who can't, following emergency protocol. Bergamo province health system is at collapse, Brescia's, Milan's and Cremona's ones are right next.
Many people younger than expected are under intensive care and some young people have already dead. This is a serious issue about the mortality of this virus.
And, again, many people violated the quaratine imposed by the government in Italy: some days ago they had 37000 cca cases of infection and 41000 people denounced for infractions... so, at least, idiots are always more higher than patients.
@epoch said "Only the Peoples Republic of China has to do that. And at this point my mood is to not forgive them. Never again. They tried to conceal SARS, and they did it again. Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me."
I second the sentiment, the chinese/their govt has put my parents lives and my livelihood at risk. And India is not even that much affected (yet).
One should also look at Japan and how they controlled the outbreak.
As someone else said, higher temperatures may reduce R0 spread rate.
@Frank
You are right of course, not published data on recovered cases.
On testing dead people, the information is in newspapers (could be that this is not systematicly made).
From the RKI dates, most cases are recent (oldests are dated from late february/early march). There is a clear increase in both the number of cases since then, and of deaths in the last days (which is logical if you take into account rise of contamination in early march).
Many cases are of young people (under 60). This could explain a lower deathtoll than Italia, but the main explanation to me is the stage of epidemy (death is usually in the 3d week).
Can you tell us if local authorities are trying to implement confinment? Because I found the recent growth of cases in Germany rather disturbing.
And this is what the "science-led" coronavirus policy of the UK government looks like on the ground.
NHS nurses are being made to use various items they can find – including bin bags – in the hospital to help protect themselves, with many using plastic aprons over their head, buying wellies or wrapping clinical waste bags around their feet.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/22/coronavirus-news-coronavirus-live-updates-deaths-uk-italy-lockdown-spain-us-new-york-south-america?page=with:block-5e7738508f08dcc95cc20ed2#block-5e7738508f08dcc95cc20ed2
Folker (and others):
1. According to a TV report yesterday, the average age of (registered) infected in Germany is 47 years. In Italy, it is 62 years. This alone explains a good part of the difference in mortality rates.
2. Having said that, the situation is now also getting dramatic in Germany. I'll post some updated regional data below (probably in a separate comment). Apparently, not all local data is reaching the RKI in the prescribed time. This concerns especially NRW, where the situation is now worsening rapidly in Cologne and the Münsterland, and also some places in East Germany (Jena, Zwickau), which so far looked rather unaffected except for Berlin and its periphery. Disaster is looming in and around Munich.
And that Würzburg case (10 deaths in a nursery home, 23 staff infected, all residents now isolated) smells extremely fishy, as the numbers that are now being uncovered and apparently were known for already some time to local officials haven't yet been reported to RKI.
3. Most State Governments have taken strict measures during the last week, including expelling tourists from coastal resorts, and closure of restaurants and non-essential shops (whereby the definition of what is essential and what not differs from state to state). Some, though not all states, have also banned public religious service; funeral attendance has been restricted to close relatives. There have been thresholds set for how many people may meet in public places from as low as only 2 persons (Cologne) to a maximum of 10 persons (Berlin) [exceptions are granted to families, co-habitants and co-workers]. This all is done on a pretty thin legal base - to put it mildly - since it obviously violates various constitutional rights.
In order to homogenise the strategy, a video conference of the Federal Government and all State Governors is planned for this afternoon. Without awaiting this conference, the Bavarian Government (as always, of course) unilaterally already declared a curfew from Friday evening on.
Personally, while I understand many of the measures taken, I cringe when the same people that didn't want to disrupt the Carneval - thereby setting the disaster that is unfolding in the Rhineland in motion - now go bashing on handfuls of kids enjoying the first signs of spring somewhere along the bank of the Rhine as behaving irresponsible. I also fail to understand why a group of four playing beach volleyball/ frisbee, or cycling together should pose a danger to public health. Equally, reasons why book stores or opticians (both now closed virtually everywhere) should constitute an elevated infection risk in comparison to, e.g., DIY markets have not become clear to me. While it is certainly a good idea to contain arrival of new tourists on the East Frisian Islands, I don't see a reason why those that are already there should be expelled by the police, as Lower Saxony's Minister of the Interior is planning to do today.
But, apparently, now the time for populists has come. Let's demonstrate "Leadership" and toughness - the stricter the measures, the better - we can talk about the constitution and the economy later.
[On the agenda is a/o closure of public playgrounds, already declared by e.g. NRW. The Berlin Policemen Union is strongly warning against such measure, fearing for an increase in domestic violence.]
Here some fresh data on seriously affected areas in Germany, given as infected / incidence per 1 Million population / deceased / mortality. For comparison, some national incidence levels as per yesterday:
San Marino 4,715
Iceland 1386
Italy 886
Switzerland 793
Spain 545
As such, an incidence above 550 is certainly cause for immediate concern. When dealing with agglomerations below, I will only present the counties that have already surpassed that incidence. C&C means that data for a city and the surrounding eponymous county has been combined.
A. NRW (last update 11 am)
1. Heinsberg/Aachen cluster
- Heinsberg 964/3,791/15/1.6%
- Aachen 501/902/4/0.8%
2. Münsterland
- Münster 243/773/0/0
- Borken 274/739/0/0
- Warendorf 207/745/0/0
- Coesfeld 152/691/0/0
- Gütersloh 202/555/0/0
3. Cologne 688/634/2/0.3%
Infection numbers are increasing quickly in the Ruhr area, especially Essen and Bochum (one fatality each), and in East Westphalia (first fatality in Lippe). Leverkusen seems so far holding well, even though Leverkusen fans are suspected to have spread some infection to Glasgow during the recent Europa League match.
B. Baden-Würtemberg
1. Freiburg area
- Freiburg 195/847/1/0.5%
- Emmendingen 122/734/4/3.3%
- Breisgau 173/658/0/0
2. Stuttgart area
- Esslingen 360/674/2/0.6%
- Tübingen 144/633/0/0
- Stuttgart 341/537/1/0.3%
3. Miscellaneous
- Hohenlohe 222/1,982/2/0.9%
- Calw 132/833/1/0.8%
- Sigmaringen 89/680/1/1.1%
The situation is also worsening quickly in Heidelberg (4 cases acc. to RKI, 80 cases/ 500 incidence according to local authorities) and in the surrounding Rhein-Neckar County.
I'll continue later with Bavaria and a few other places.
Setting forth my overview of German Risk Areas:
C. Bavaria
1. Fichtelgebirge
- Tirschenreuth 111/2,513/1/0.9%
- Wunsiedel 46/629/2/4.4%
2. Munich area
- Freising 174/971/2/1.2%
- Starnberg 114/838/1/0.9%
- Munich 1042/708/0/0
- München-Land 219/628/0/0
- Rosenheim C&C 212/654/1/0.5%
The Rosenheim fatality, a 50-year old man, seems to be the first under-65 victim.
3. Miscellaneous
- Würzburg C&C 205/709/10/4.9%
- Miesbach 61/612/0/0
The situation is also getting problematic in Nürnberg-Land (2 fatalities yesterday), though not yet in Nürnberg proper (see below). One more sign that the infection so far seems to be more a rural/suburban than an urban phenomenon, which has possibly to do with differences in age structure.
D. Other areas to note
1. Lower Mosel
- Cochem-Zell 45/731/0/0
- Mayen-Koblenz 120/560/1/0.8%
2. East Germany
- Jena 74/664/0/0
- Zwickau 172/542/0/0
3. Major cities (as reference, ordered by incidence)
- Hamburg 872/474/1/0.1%
- Bremen 165/299/0/0
- Berlin 1,024/284/1/0.1%
- Hannover 310/268/2/0.7%
- Leipzig 154/262/0/0
- Frankfurt 148/197/0/0
- Dresden 108/195/0/0
- Nuremberg 74/143/0/0
Areas to observe closely are the Hamburg periphery (especially Harburg and Pinneberg counties), Osnabrück, Fulda and Schwerin.
The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Movie of the day:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(1959_film)
It's been one week. So far, New York State (almost all is in New York city) is the only US location going down Italy's path. New York accounts for over 50% of US cases, deaths. They've started to get 5,000+ cases, 100+ deaths every day.
Los Angles, Chicago, Houston, other big cities have not suffered nearly as much as New York City. A nation-wide crisis hasn't started yet. But we'll see what happens in 2-3 weeks. Numbers could begin to drop.
@Samuel Andrews
It usually takes at least a few days to show COVID-19 symptoms, somewhat longer than that to end up in intensive care, and a couple of weeks to die from it.
So what you're seeing in the stats now is the situation from at least a week ago. And keep in mind that the stats don't reflect the truth too well anyway, because the US wasn't testing many people until recently.
In other words, expect things to get much worse before they eventually get better.
Here in South-Africa. 274-Cases 0-Deaths. A week ago 1-Case.
@DAVID...
The genotypes are now on the Reich lab page: https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/datasets
Please make the following available to your G25 sheets:
Two Middle Bronze Age samples (so right before Proto-Villanovans) from Italy:
9309_Co
9323_Co
The Romanian R-Z93 sample:
GLAV_14_Oss
@Richard
Thanks, I'll run these samples later today.
The copper age sample from Italy is also interesting, ID 9214, it's the first from mainland southern Italy(Campania).
Here are the Global25 coordinates for most of the samples from the Sirak et al. paper.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1NoXcQ2LHj94LsGG4ONqenE5at2I-iGzZ
I'll do a blog post about some of these samples tomorrow.
The Copper Age individual from Buccino didn't have enough markers to be run.
Why two different coordinates for each sample?
@Samuel, each sample had DNA tested from two parts, the Ossicle and the Cochlear.
@Richard, The Middle Bronze age Italy male is confirmed to have Y chromsome R1b L151?
Settle down Gaska. Nearly 70,000 Americans died of H1N1 in the 2018-2019 Flu Season and it hardly made the news cycle. Not sure of the figures in Spain, but likely high as well. Of course, C-19 is much more virulent at this stage, but you can bet with world economies throwing between $3-4 TRILLION USD at this pipsquek, we’ll have it under general control (drugs, not vaccine), in a matter of a few months. Vaccine by next season. Stay safe.
Bogdan my biggest concern is the health of my wife and children. Regarding the pandemic, in Madrid we have more than 1,000 deaths in a week. We have set up a hospital with 5,500 beds for the sick in three days and we already have all the necessary medical equipment. The rest of the Spanish regions are under control-
The lockdown is being effective and in a few days we will have controlled the transmission so we are optimistic. 87% of the dead are over 70 years old.Mortality figures are high because the virus has entered many nursing homes-Today the European Union is going to take strong measures against the economic crisis, although I don't know how long it will take until people recover their confidence (travel, spend, invest, buy). We are going to have some difficult months
The crisis has taught us the differences between Asia and the West. They are more disciplined than us and they can perfectly control an epidemic like this in two months isolating a region of the country. We simply cannot isolate our economies, we cannot close borders, what happens in Italy affects us all Europeans days apart, it is impossible to control it.
@Bogdan
Nearly 70,000 Americans died of H1N1 in the 2018-2019 Flu Season and it hardly made the news cycle.
That's because it did so gradually, without overwhelming the health care system.
COVID-19 has the potential to kill many more people this year directly and indirectly, and it might if it's not stopped, because no country in the world has the health care resources to deal with the type of sudden impact it produces.
Before this blog returns to ist regular focus (which is probably a good idea), let me provide an update on the latest development in Germany:
1. The infection curve is flattening in some of the most affected areas, e.g. Heinsberg, Münsterland and Hamburg. In Heinsberg, there are currently approximately as many patients relaeased from quarantine as having fully recovered (162 over the weekend), as are found to be newly infected. This may, however, be nothing more than a technical effect. Testing over the weekend concentrated on emergency cases. Yesterday's testing should have covered more patients with milder symptoms - we'll have to await their results before drawing definite conclusions.
2. Elsewhere, infection numbers are still rising rapidly. This concerns especially the Cologne-Bonn, Rhine-Neckar, Stuttgart and Munich agglomerations, but also East German cities like Erfurt, Jena, Halle, Leipzig and Dresden that so far appeared to be hardly affected.
3. While the curve has been flattening in the Münsterland, infection numbers now go up quickly in East Westphalia and the Osnabrück area. A similar spreading pattern can be observed around other hotspots. E.g., infections seem to spill over from Hohenlohe into neighbouring Heilbronn to the West, and Schwäbisch Hall to the East. In the Stuttgart Region, Böblingen and Göppingen counties now also have incidence rates above 600 per Million. In Southern Bavaria, Dachau, Erding, Landshut, Rottal-Inn and Weilheim-Schongau counties need to be added to my previous list of strongly affected counties.
4. At 29 fatalities yesterday, mortality is still lower than in the Netherlands or the UK (not even speaking of Italy, Spain and France), but nevertheless clearly increasing. The bulk of it relates to known hot-spots, most notably Heinsberg (24 fatalities so far, 2.4% mortality), and the Freiburg, Stuttgart and Munich areas. If the Heinsberg mortality will become representative for all of Germany, we need to prepare for hard times ahead. OTOH, Hamburg, another early hot-spot, is still holding itself well: 1043 infected (567 incindence), but so far just 1 fatality (0.1% mortality), 55 hospitalisations, 14 of which are in intesive care (all per yesterday noon).
5. Worrysome are individual fatalities from random places that so far didn't appear to be particularly affected, e.g. Bautzen, Leer, Plön, Wiesbaden or Wolfsburg. They suggest that infections have below the radar spread further than infection statistics (and local quarantining efforts) suggest. In this contect, let me add two other local hot-spots that I had overlooked so far, namely
(i) Lindau/Lake Constance (612 incidence acc. to to official data, other sources get to 869 incidendce); infection rates are now also rising quickly in neighbouring Friedrichshafen
(ii) Northern Palatinate: 716 incidence in Bad Dürkheim, 604 in Alzey-Worms.
Moreover, Jena delivered the first fatality yesterday (incidence there now 808). We'll probably over the coming weeks see a number more of local hot-spots appearing where nobody had been expecting them.
Dave, Rob: What is your assessment of the current situation in Australia (nearly 50% increase in infected on Sunday). I feel reminded of Germany three weeks ago..
Otherwise, those 45 or so daily new cases in Hong Kong give reason for concern. Many observers are suspecting that China has only temporarily and locally been able to contain the pandemy, but the danger of further outbreaks is still not banned.
@Frank
The sharp rise in the Australian cases is still due to foreign tourists and returning travelers.
There was one major incident recently where the authorities in Sydney seemingly fell asleep and let ~2,700 passengers from a cruise ship disperse all around the country.
Many of these people were infected with COVID-19 and the military has been called in to help track them down.
In another part of the country American tourists spread COVID-19 among themselves and others at a luxury winery resort. All of the relevant individuals are now being rounded up, tested and isolated.
The border has now been shut, and even most of the state borders are closing, but we won't see the effects of these actions for another few days.
Each country and each region will have different responses and different results against the pandemic. Once again Germany is doing well, but there are differences in how countries are counting deaths from coronavirus.I think (you will be able to confirm it) that the Germans are counting deaths caused exclusively BY Cov19, in Spain, however, we counted deaths WITH Cv19 (not only because of the coronavirus), and that makes the figures higher because many were terminally ill infected (and aged over 90 years, which means that the virus has not changed previous mortality rates for ages)-Even two months ago, post-mortem analyzes were done. Thanks to this we discovered that the first dead person died on February 13, although it was reported on March 4. That man (69 years old) was not in China or Italy but in Nepal ????? The number of people who have overcome the disease-Spain-3,500, Germany-450, with a similar number of cases (35,000 / 30,000) is also very important, which means that in your country the epidemic has only just begun (like in UK,and France)
Our healthcare system is responding and although we have almost 4,000 healthcare staff infected (14%.total infected-yesterday), the casualties are recovering by recruiting retired doctors under 70 and with medical and nursing students in their last year. Spain is a very supportive country and everyone is responding perfectly.Madrid is suffering because the municipal mortuary yesterday had to close and they have moved the morgue to a bigger place, which produces the pain of not being able to bury our dead as they deserve, but people are facing it with resignation.This week is crucial for us, but I am sure that other less affected regions like Catalonia will start to have serious problems. We are prepared to face it.
I think it is important to compare Asia with Europe. You can start by looking at the percentages of infected and dead in China, Japan and South Korea and what is happening in Europe. Here, Switzerland has more cases (8.795 cases/1.016 per 1 Million population) and deaths (120) than South Korea (90.27 cases/176 per million-120 deaths)-What has happened? the Koreans simply did thousands of tests and quickly isolated the infected while in Europe (except Germany I think) we have allowed the disease to spread without control for two months (travel, tourists, soccer games, marathons, etc.)-We must never allow it again, we must create a European health card and test all tourists (more than 80 million in Spain last year) otherwise we will always be exposed to epidemics like this.
Regarding the rest of the world there are countries that are doing well (Australia, Canada, Israel, Russia, India) and countries that are going to have very serious problems-USA, UK, Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Egypt, Turkey , Pakistan, Philippines- I don't know how their health systems will resist, but the pandemic can be brutal in Africa, America and large parts of Asia, despite the fact that it has a much younger population than Europe.If hospitals in many regions of Europe are practically collapsed, anyone with common sense can imagine what will happen in Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines or Indonesia.
Some things are speaking for themselves, Trump announced NEXT WEEK is the US back on track...........................................
Gaska: "I think (you will be able to confirm it) that the Germans are counting deaths caused exclusively BY Cov19" No. Anyone deceased found to be infected with Cov19 is included in the statistics. E.g., the first fatality in Schleswig-Holstein was a 78-year old man who had been hospitalised for cancer in the terminal stage. His Cov19 infection was only identified post mortem.
"..there are countries that are doing well (Australia, Canada, Israel, Russia, India) .." Russia is doing very little testing, and is acc. to a recent report in German TV experiencing an extraordinary increase in pneumonia cases. Hmm..
"..in Europe (except Germany I think) we have allowed the disease to spread without control for two months. Well, Germany did some things quite well, others not so. E.g., it was absolutely stupid to still allow Carneval festivities in the Rhineland, at a time the danger was already becoming obvious, and Venice had cancelled its Carneval. Probably the current rise in infections in Leipzig has other major causes than the Leipzig-Tottenham CL game; still, it wasn't a particular good idea to have it played before audience.
Actually, a European country that according to available statistics is doing surprisingly well is Iceland, with one of the highest incidence rates in Europe (1.723), yet only one fatality so far. Surely, Iceland isn't that densely populated, which makes it easier to track down and contain infection herds. Still, I find their performance so far remarkable. Norway has also has held itself well so far, albeit the situation there seems to have worsened over the last days. My feeling is that the further south (the milder the climate), the worse it gets - certainly in Germany, and in all likelyhood Europe as a whole, though it's probably too early for definite conclusions.
Dave: I seriously hope Australia will not have to pay dearly for the "sleepiness" of Sydney's authorities. Heinsberg County demonstrates how disastrous one such mistake (by the team Laschet/Spahn, preparing to run for chancellorship) may become..
@FrankN I guess for Iceland speaks that it's a very controllable situation, an island, well equipped, and with a total population that is 1/6 of Hamburg....
The climate I don't know, I read somewhere that the situation in my region (not fare from East-Friesland/Niedersachsen) is with low humidity and current night frost pretty bad.
By the way thanks for the regular updates about Germany! And you well informed opinions.
@Gaska
No, you can't make a comparison between Europe and Asia. Some cases can be compared, but not on a general basis. For 1: most cases in Asia are in China and you can't trust China. Chinese statistics are ALWAYS falsified. The only thing you can trust is the fact that China has controlled epidemy to lower the pressure on its hospitals. THAT'S ALL! Obviously, there are some good hints of a wide diffusion of COVID 19 in China, and many provinces don't report their cases because of a clear political agenda (provinces governors want to stay in charge, and Ji Xiping has made it clear that he wants the country to be back to normal in april/may). Governors are underreporting cases since the beginning, and lockdown has helping them to do so (remember that more than half chinese are in lockdown). But lockdown is only slowing epidemy, and it is not stopping it. South Korea is different, and its statistics are the only ones which can be fully trusted (and it will be very interesting to look at in 3/4 weeks time, as it will give us a good estimate for CFR, already above 1%).
Africa, SE Asia, Middle East are complete different matters: there are not tested. And COVID 19 seems to be in the raise in those parts of the World. Not mentionning Iran, which is on a verge of a real tragedy (you should feel lucky in Spain in comparison).
By the way: young people are not safe! Kids are, but not young adults. If they are dying less, they can have complications, and die if not put in medical care. Therefore, many countries with a young population, but without an efficient health system, will have a high deathtoll.
Gaska: "we discovered that the first dead person died on February 13, although it was reported on March 4. That man (69 years old) was not in China or Italy but in Nepal ?????"
I am actually wondering to which extent we may be dealing with different strains, of different lethality, across parts of Europe, that have entered from different regions of origin. E.g., one of the earliest Corona cases in Hamburg (published on March 3rd) concerned a woman that had returned from Iran. In contrast, most of the cases in the Rhineland and Bavaria - to the extent they could be tracked down - relate to skiing holidays in North or South Tirol, and/or business contacts with Lombardy.
Of particular concern is the recent Rosenheim fatality- a 54-year old man w/o any known medical problems. Quite to the opposite, as a horn player in the local brass band, he should have had well-trained lungs. The man had travelled to Madrid on March,5. He already felt sick upon his return on March, 12, visited the doctor the next day, and was found to be unable to work. Last Thursday, he got serious breathing problems and was taken to the hospital, where he died on Friday afternoon.
Apparently, this patient was reasonably well (self-)quarantined, but in all likelyhood he wasn't the only passenger aboard that Madrid-Munich flight, and I haven't seen any reports so far describing efforts to systematically screen people that arrived from Madrid in Munich during mid-March for SARS-Cov2. Doctors in Munich (but not yet elsewhere) now point to an increasing number of serious COV19 cases among under-60s. As such, I actually wonder whether a particularly lethal strain might have developed in Spain (or have come there e.g. from Nepal)?
Otherwise, according to German newspaper articles, the Bergamo-Valencia CL encounter is in Italy now regarded as "Match Zero" and a major reason why Bergamo has so far been hit strongest by the pandemy. The overcrowded trains that transported nearly 40,000 fans from Bergamo to the stadium in Milan would have been ideal environment for the virus to spread.
Well, seems like lock downs could be few months than few weeks. Wherever its not already mayhem, in the developed world, hospitals are winding down all non-emergency services in preparation for 'the onslaught', and where things are still not bad yet the infected are mostly travellers or their contacts (e.g. in Australia, it sfocussed in NSW, and most have travelled from Europe, rather than China, it seems). Mortality rates are a funciton of how overwhelmed health systems are, most health systems in the west function similarly
@FrankN-Yeah, the case of Nepal is very rare because I do not know if that country has confirmed any case of Covid-19. The virus is not the same as in China, but my wife says that it is normal for this type of virus to mutate quickly. You are right, the Atalanta-Valencia match was lethal, because the following week many cases began to appear in the city of Valencia-Regarding post-mortem analyzes, if the German authorities are doing them, then you are being very effective in containing mortality, although this may obviously depend on the age of the infected. In terms of containing the epidemic, the Germans are doing as poorly as the rest of Western Europe.You don't have to worry about the virus being more dangerous in Italy or Spain than in China. The data in Spain shows that there are only 5 cases of apparently healthy people who have died, the rest are old people.
@Folker-I don't trust the Chinese either, but the Koreans and the Japanese don't have to lie and apparently they have done things very well. The Chinese are now trying to clear their conscience by sending aid to Italy, which is appreciated, but it should not be forgotten that they are to blame for the situation.Other Asian countries such as the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have very high death rates with very few cases, the situation there can be disastrous. Remember my words- Mexico, Ecuador, Brazil, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Egypt and Turkey are going to suffer a lot too.
@Weure-I don't think the weather influences the spread of the virus. In Portugal it is hotter than in the north of Spain and its mortality figures are very similar to those of the Scandinavian countries. The epidemic is simply beginning. After three weeks of infection, mortality increases exponentially.France, the Netherlands and UK are going to have a very hard time, maybe even worse than Italy or Spain
Regarding the USA, the situation in New York seems complicated, but the Americans have many resources and although they are going to have thousands of cases more than China in a few days, I suppose (hope) that they will be able to contain the mortality.
@Rob, your country was ill prepared because the nomenklatura in the US downsized the virus! It's going to be chaos....
Potus and mostly prominent member of the Republicans in the Senate, downsized the corona virus (in spring with sunshine it's gone, the flu is more worse, we all got it under control etc etc etc). In combination with projection, it's a 'foreign virus' and 'Chinese'.
Meanwhile the best informed US senators that publicly downsized the corona virus, like Richard Burr but also others, privately sell their stocks (in hotels etc).
I would call it treason of the US public (by the way it is Fox news that was the first that demanded a retreat of Richard Burr c.s.).
And now in the news POTUS says America is NEXT WEEK back on track ('soon open for business')....in Dutch we call this 'plate for his head'. What kind of reality check does he have? Or is he misleading the US people.... I really don't know what is more worse....
So not prepared and I doubt if the actual judgement of POTUS about the severeness of this corona crisis is quite clear. Who is going to pay the price Rob? POTUS or the average people of the US!?
Trump is betting on an effective cure being available within weeks.
His gamble might pay off, but it's more likely that the cures and vaccines will start rolling in during the autumn. And by that time, even with a lengthy lockdown of most of the USA, many thousands of people will end up in emergency and often die.
So it's extremely unlikely that Trump will be forgiven by the American public for underestimating this virus.
And I could even make it worse, because when the US and the China officials get into a kind of black jack the international tension will be fired up.
You see already that the corona virus is framed as 'foreign' and 'Chinese'. The corona virus will be fateful in the US.
And most of all this fuels the inner tensions of the US that are already there
It's predictable that POTUS doesn't feel any responsibility for the crisis, because of the inner tensions, he is going to fuel the tension with the Chinese. He is the one going 'to punish' the Chinese, war as an outlet for inner tensions.....his supporters will be delighted if he acts that way.
A little but famous example are the Falklands, Margareth Thatcher wasn't quite popular in 1982, but the Falkland war made here the iron lady... but a Chinese-US confrontation will be another cup of tea...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHwCbIEVmG0
Gaska: " In terms of containing the epidemic, the Germans are doing as poorly as the rest of Western Europe." Well, after all, Germany is a federation, and approaches differed from state to state. I actually think the Hamburg government did a lot of things right, including proactively testing that Iranian lady immediately after her arrival back in early March. The same may actually also said about Bremen - when the Bundesliga still wanted to continue with "business as usual", it was them who banned the upcoming Werder Bremen match because of public health risks, thereby effectively ending the season. When it comes to NRW and Bavaria, OTOH, the failures are obvious, and these states are now paying a heavy price for it.
What is pissing me off is that the same heads of state (Laschet in NRW, Söder in Bavaria) that allowed the disaster to unfold are now the most eager ones to propose "tough" (and partly unconstitutional) measures against the pandemy, in preparation of their bids for chancellorship, and the preceding battle between the two about who will be on the CDU/CSU ticket. I wpuldn't have voted for them anyway, but I hope that others will also remember their performance when it comes to voting in 2021..
Which takes me to the US: As Donald Trump is heavily invested in hotels, he shall feel the impact of Corona on his personal fortune. Prudent leadership would - of course - have been preferable, but at least he will literally have to pay the price for his mismanagement..
FrankN: Which takes me to the US: As Donald Trump is heavily invested in hotels, he shall feel the impact of Corona on his personal fortune. Prudent leadership would - of course - have been preferable, but at least he will literally have to pay the price for his mismanagement..
Of course: Because Donald Trump created and spread the China virus throughout the world...
Trump shut down travel from China in the last days of January 2020. He was called a racist by your ideological brothers for this prudent move. When did Angela Merkel shut down travel from China into Germany? Date? When did she shut down her borders to Italy and Austria?
As an American I am thankful for having a man with brain soul heart and cojones as my President. So are the majority of Americans with enough brains not to be brainwashed by the leftist propaganda driven media. No citizens of the USA who will be voting in 2020 and has an IQ over 75 thinks that Hillary Clinton (or heaven
forbid the backstabber Nancy Pelosi) would provide "prudent" leadership to anyone.
I am not personally scared about getting the virus, however I do worry for my older relatives as well as other at risk-groups. Nobody wants to see others suffer. I know young people have died, but it's a tiny proportion of overall deaths.
But, without disregarding the health dangers, I am far,far more concerned about the economy.
Even a complete layman in terms of economy like me can see that a lockdown of more than a few weeks will collapse the economy. Significant job loss in every country. How many service companies could survive having 90% less customers for 1,2,3 months as per complete lockdown scenarios. And the industries that depend on the service industry...
A draconian lockdown should indeed kill the virus, saving many lives but we could be looking at upwards of 35% unemployment across the board in OECD countries by January 2021 which will end up killing far far more, creating huge amounts of poverty. I just can't see it any other way; in a lockdown, companies won't be able to pay their staff. And the government can't bail out every company.
I think we need to seriously consider forcing ourselves out of lockdown in 2 weeks time, no matter how much we have this virus contained. That will kill an awful lot of people, overwhelm the health service, but could be the lesser of the two evils. A vaccine will soon come. But the only vaccine to boost the economy is spending-which people won't be doing as job losses are going to be like nothing we've ever seen.
Surely governments have weighed this up and apart from Trump, seem to going toward complete lockdowns...
Which begs a genuine question; do people think that there won't be huge (above 25%) of jobs lost, with a 1 month-plus lockdown? If no, how is that not going to create significantly more deaths than the virus ever will?
@ weure
''POTUS or the average people of the US!?'
The same as always. Normal people. These things always result in a transfer of wealth from the middle classes to the few oligarchs. So itll complete what the GFC started.
@ wishfulthinking
'' So are the majority of Americans with enough brains not to be brainwashed by the leftist propaganda driven media.''
In reality, the world is becoming more & more totalitarian, its pretty clear to most. The modern despots are crafty & adaptable, happy to use whichever ideology to placate and divide.
So pregnant bearded men are merely a destraction, merely a show of our supposed advanced liberalism when in reality the West is morally bankrupt given its aggressive military expansionism and growing wealth disparities. And what's more, its on the brink of economic collapse given the aforementioned industrial complex led by Uncle Sam is funded by printing money out of thin air. This is the result of unfetterd Ultra-capitalism where a few have no qualms about screwing the entire world, incl. their own people.
So the Corona virus serves as a nice excuse
Trump has brains and heart? Haha. I can't stop laughing. He's gotta be the dumbest person in the room at all times. Not only that, he is utterly incapable of feeling anything for anyone other than himself.
He closed 80% of the CDC pandemic offices around the world, including China. He also left 700 vacancies at the CDC. Trump owns the outbreak. He should've shut down the country when community spread was discovered in Seattle. Instead, he went on his usual hoax rants and we have it controlled garbage. He's a piece of shit and so is anyone that votes for him.
@Davidski
What do you think about the points raised in the following article regarding the virus?
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Main points being that deaths in for example Italy are not higher than usual compared with other years.
@History Diver
The rates of deaths and hospital admittance in Italy right now are certainly much higher than usual and these spikes are tied to the COVID-19 pandemic.
They're also higher in Spain and will soon be higher in France, US, UK, etc.
If they weren't higher, than you wouldn't be seeing military hospitals being built across Europe and filling up with critically ill patients.
@Ben Osland
There's no way that the society and economy can function with a raging pandemic, even if the death rate is a couple per cent and mostly the old dying.
You would only have a small proportion of people who are willing to ignore the situation and carry on as usual.
The only realistic solution is to minimize the damage and wait for the cures and vaccines.
As of March 7 in the United States according to the CDC, the flu has caused 51 million illnesses, 24 million medical visits, 670,000 hospital visits, and 55,000 deaths.
As Davidski says the situation is different, this is kind of all at once and more contagious apparently, I just wanted to give some perspective with those numbers.
I think it's completely unrealistic for any world leader, Trump included, to just shut down the country when there are a few cases.I guess that particular area could be targeted, or state, to nip it in the bud.The most important thing is to try and stop it from coming in, and Trump was called a racist and xenophobe for restricting travel from China.That's especially laughable coming from people supporting open borders on the Southern Border.Atleast here in the Us Trump is the Sun around which everything orbits, and views on this situation are based on their view of Trump.I think,and hope, in a few weeks or months time this weird period will be over and doomsday scenarios won't come close to passing.
@Al Bundy
I suspect that a fair proportion of those flu patients and victims this year were actually suffering from COVID-19, which may have been circulating in parts of the US for longer than generally assumed.
There is no way that a vaccine could be available before a year or so (not only because we must make one, but manufactoring enough doses will take time). Don't count on it. 60% of people needing ICU are under 60, and obesity, diabete,... are factors of risk. Given the number of people with overweight, it is obvious that COVID 19 will have dire consequences in USA. By the way, and even if I was agree with restricting travel to and from China, COVID 19 is probably already widely diffused in Northern America, and lockdown is the only possibility in the next months.
big news: "China's premier Li Keqiang warns local officials not to hide new coronavirus infections". At last! But only time will say if they obey.
It is clear that the "0 new local contamination" we are seeing in official stats from some days now is completely ridiculous.
Here my daily update:
1. The RKI has revoked its suggestion that the infection curve might be flattening. Many regions had delivered infection data only with delay. My feeling is that all RKI analyses will need to be treated with caution for the days to come:
a) The newly introduced electronic transmission of infection data is apparently not compatible with local systems and requires manual data re-entry. This seems to work well in regions that aren't that strongly affected by the Virus yet. E.g., I found that for Hesse, Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the RKI data is more or less in line with figures published by the States on the previous afternoon. However, when things start to get bad, reporting to the RKI is apparently not high on the priority list. For example, the Mayor of Jena reported yesterday that they had been overwhelmed by the rapid increase, and some 55 fresh infections from Monday hadn't yet been reported to RKI. I suppose the same for the Cologne-Bonn area (499 infections acc. to RKI, 1,495 acc. to local authorities), and a couple of other places with substantial deviation between RKI and local data such as Aachen, Bielefeld, Würzburg, Reutlingen or Tübingen.
b) Testing lab capacities appear to more and more become a bottleneck. Various counties report that a substantial number of tests are still standing out. Wesel County has announced to close its recently opened drive-in testing facility, since they couldn't find a lab to process the tests. The Munich Medical Chamber has recommended to restrict testing to emergency cases - everything else could anyway not be processed, and would be a waste of ressources. A test lab in Baden-Würtemberg had to leave some 2,000 tests unprocessed over the weekend for lack of some chemicals, and it is unclear yet how many of them will still yield valid results [However, I think, many of them did, which would explain today's massive rise in infection numbers in Böblingen, Tübingen, and Zollern-Alb counties].
c) OTOH, infection numbers may also be driven up artificially by returning tourists - at least this is given as explanation for yesterday's 40% rise in Hamburg's infection numbers. Hamburg is one of the four airports to which stranded German tourists are flown (Frankfurt, Düsseldorf and Munich are the other three), and has over the last days seen substantial arrival from a/o Egypt and the Canary Islands.
2. Yesterday's Heinsberg County increase in infections was around 4% (from 1.004 to 1,043 acc. to local government data). That's about to where we have to get if the infection is to be contained (though not eradicated). [The infection stops to progress, if the infection rate drops below 1. Assuming that an infected may spread the virus for 20 days, this translates into a daily rate of 1/20=5%, at which the number of newly infected equals the number of recovered plus deceased.]
Otherwise, Heinsberg is sending mixed signals:
- Mortality stands at 2.4% (25 deaths so far), and will probably rise further, as a good part of the infected stem from the last two weeks;
- OTOH, the hospitalisation rate there seems to lie below expectations (from memory, forgot to bookmark the article, it's clearly below 5%). Therefore, the challenge to Health infrastructure might become less serious (albeit still serious enough) than originally thought.
2. A decrease in infection rates is also visible in some other hot-spots. In the Münsterland, e.g., it is now 13%, compared to over 20% a week ago.
https://www.bezreg-muenster.de/de/presse/2020/2020-03-06_corona-infektionen/index.html
A similar trend becomes apparent for other hot-spots such as the Freiburg area, or the Lower Mosel, and is furthermore seen in Berlin (there with serious doubts about testing intensity). However, infection rates in the range of 13% are still far too high. My latest modelling for a "mild containment scenario" is based on reducing the infection rate to 8.75%/day, which would result in around 670.000 fatalities until February 28th, 2021, by when hopefully vaccination should be available.
3. In contrast, infection rates now seem to be sky-rocketing in areas that so far have been hardly affected. Examples include Soest and the Hochsauerland (the latter has now passed the 600 per Million incidence rate), the Hannover and Halle-Leipzig agglomerations, several counties in Baden-Würtemberg (Schwäbisch-Hall, Ostalb, Böblingen, Zollernalb, Ulm - all a/m now above 600 pM incidence), Munich County, Dachau and Fürstenfeldbruck counties in the Munich periphery, plus Cham County in the Bavarian Forest, Greiz County in Thuringia (1 fatality yesterday), and Segeberg County in the Hamburg periphery (where I live). Part of this may relate to sparse testing over the weekend, but the general impression is that we see various secondary (tertiary?) hot-spots developing.
[As concerns Leipzig: One of the spectators of the Leipzig-Tottenham match has been tested positively for the Virus. As his friends, who also watched the game, have been tested negatively, it is yet unclear how instrumental that guy was in spreading the infection. I personally think that the Berlin-Leipzig partying relation (in which my Leipzig-based son, and my Berlin-based daughters play a - probably insignificant - role) may have more to do with the recent development there.]
4. In terms of fatalities, the focus seems to shift from the primary to the secondary hot-spots. E.g, there was only one new fatality yesterday in Heinsberg, but four in and around the Münsterland (around means Wesel and Gütersloh) yesterday, plus one in Düren south of Heinsberg. The death toll in and around Munich is rising, there was on more fatality in the Würzburg nursery home I had mentionned before, and mortality also goes up in and around Hohenlohe (Heilbronn, Schwäbisch Hall). Two fatalities from the Hannover Region indicate that the rapid increase in infections there should be more than a statistical artefact.
But overall, it is still quite difficult to relate fatalities, which seem to come from various random locations, to the infection data published.
Hey from France, where a hypochondriac like me is having a terrible time.
Our case numbers are not representative as the testing strategy has been very limited until recently.
Still, by my estimate France will go over its ICU capacity by Saturday. There are 5000 “réanimation” beds in the country. At the moment there are just over 1800 patients in “réanimation”, this number is growing by about 115% per day...
Here in Marseille, rogue doctor Didier Raoult has decided to open tests to any person who has a fever, there is a five hour long queue next to the institute he works at. Like Trump he is a staunch believer in the power of chloroquine to reduce coronavirus load in patients.
I have a cold, if I start getting a fever I’ll definitely go get tested and will probably accept to try chloroquine.
Anyway, David, I am not sure I would call people who believe in herd immunity (and people who say it’s just a flu) psychopaths. Some may be, but I think most just don’t want to face how scary this really is.
Either way, I am terrified.
@David - Flu season was light this year thanks to a good vaccine. I don't think there's much room for excess deaths from an early spread of the coronavirus.
Some final updates on Germany:
1. Many of you will follow the data published here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
They get their Germany data from
https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-virus-karte-infektionen-deutschland-weltweit/
While this is in general a very useful tool (note that you can also get county data by clicking the "Zu Ihrer Region" button at the bottom and afterwards selecting a State from the drop-down menu at the top left - Berlin is selected as default), I noted a couple of shortcomings:
1. They regularly miss the evening update for Bavaria, and thereby the quite dramatic development in and around Munich. In Munich alone, 195 new infections were registered yesterday (+14%), and for Bavaria as a whole, some 500 or more new infections from yesterday don't seem to have been counted yet. The first hospitals in the Munich periphery are now announcing that they are operating close to their maximum capacity, and even in the City of Munich, with one of the highest hospital densities in Germany, only serious cases are still admitted for hospital treatment.
https://www.muenchen.de/rathaus/.imaging/mte/lhm/generic-lightbox-image/dam/Home/Stadtinfos/Aktuelles/2020/Coronavirus/CoronaFallzahlen.png/jcr:content/zahlen.png
2. Their recovery figures include 2.300 "unallocated", i.e. estimated cases. I think this estimate is far too high. Recovery may be approximated by deducting fatalities from the infection tally 14 days ago, and should per yesterday have stood around 2,400 persons.
3. The bulk of 47 new fatalities (plus at least 2 more Bavarians - Munich, Würzburg -that they have missed) stems from the following four States:
- Baden-Würtemberg +19 - across all areas, including further deaths from the Freiburg and Stuttgart regions, and the first fatalities in Rhine-Neckar;
- NRW + 12 - including further fatalities in a nursery home in Essen, that now accounts for five deaths, but also in the Aachen, Cologne and Düsseldorf peripheries, and in cities that so far looked unsuspicious, e.g. Hamm or Hagen;
- Bavaria +8 (+2 still missing) - Munich Metro, but also several deaths in the Allgäu (SW Bavaria);
- Saxony +5: Zwickau (3 deaths) was to be expected - the County has for a week or so had the highest incidence in E. Germany (wonder whether that has to do with the car industry there), but the two deaths in Dresden come as a unpleasant surprise, given the so far low (albeit increasing quickly) incidence there.
Single fatalities were a/o recorded in Koblenz, the Frankfurt periphery, Bremen, Berlin, Kiel, and Wolfsburg (the second death there - car industry?). Yeah - I know, that adds up to 50, not 47. My math is correct, and I cross-checked regional sources..
If anybody wants me to continue my updates, please leave a note here.
It has been a very mild mortality winter season this year in Italy so far. I don't see any major abnormalities: http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/caldo/dettaglioContenutiCaldo.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=4547&area=emergenzaCaldo&menu=vuoto&fbclid=IwAR2x1BXyNrSrwMywQRaEYx83WgWcDJcs0eE9liUhQs-pfEFZFBuQm1HnxAY
@Volodymyr Lutsyk
Bullshit.
The death rates in the Italian COVID-19 hotspots are clearly very high by normal standards.
The death rates are being mis-expressed, by an order of magnitude. Theyre citing mortality rate of those who are symptomatic (actively infected); not of all carriers of the virus.
And why do they keep showing the same clip of Italy over & over again on the news ?
@rob
You can only compare death rates to total infections once the latter starts declining. Until then you will have to compare death rates to recoveries.
We have a perfect statistical example of Diamond Princess Cruse ship. Half of the infected do not display any symptoms even a month after testing positive. https://www.foxnews.com/us/cruise-ship-data-helps-reveal-coronavirus-death-rate-researchers
@Volodymyr Lutsyk
We have a second case. In completely lockdowned and 100% tested Italian Vo' Euganeo it also popped up that half of the positive cases were asymptomatic
https://www.livescience.com/small-italian-town-cuts-coronavirus-cases-testing.html
But what I find surprising is the attack rate of the Diamond Princess. It was 20%. That is low, yet the R0 value is pretty high. But you know, the household secondary attack rate in Shenzhen was just 15%. Also very low. Now that was a Chinese study, but guess what? In the Toronto 2003 SARS epidemic it also was that low, 10%.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17098951
O. and Iceland also shows signs that half of the cases are asymptomatic.
The spread in the community as evidenced by a high daily confirmed/ daily tested ratio in New York and UK is alarming. UK had 27% tests confirmed on 25th march. New York around 42%.
@ History Diver
Sure. I accept all the precautions, but i think there has been some overreactions, putting society on freeze. Societal & other healh implications need to be considered. But im not an epidemiologist or public health policist.
@ Davidski:
We should have enough blood plasma treatments by fall 2020 in the US to handle the case load in US as a stop gap. UK needs to get its head out of the sand and test as many people as possible to do the same.
@ Gaska
Like I said, settle down. All of us have concerns for family. Before you memorialize how lying communist dictatorships like China have effectively handled the outbreak, please note I have over 100x videos to share of Chinese local authorities zipping elderly infected patients up in bodily bags to be cremated (while still alive), carting what appears to be healthy individuals from homes (even young individuals) into vans in infected areas never to be seen again, and numerous examples of entire apartment building entrances and exit points in infected areas being welded shut...
Meanwhile, small d Putin denies there is an outbreak in Russia despite upwards of 25k infected with C-19 in Moscow alone...
Stay safe..
Now that the US has overtaken the original source of bat, dog, civet and rat eating Communist China in number of C-19 cases, what you will see is the CCP increasing their “infected” numbers to more closely match it.. (No joke folks, this is the ridiculousness of Geopolitics today)... The Chinese CP will try to match it so as to not look exposed as lying SOBs... It will be reported as a “second wave”, but that is nonsense. A legit second wave would only happen after the first has legitimately subsided, and in the case of China, it hasn’t... Suffer no illusions. Stay astute and safe....
I see some hope:
We have today a new fast test for coronavirus in Poland:
https://biomaxima.com/279-rapid-tests.html
10 min test is not bad. This is a fast test for screening. They are also ready to offer a more accurate genetic test for confirmation.
Social distancing now, massive testing with inexpensive fast tests, drugs which will reduce mortality, and a vaccine within 6-12 months.
@Folker "I don't like Macron"
I like him, mostly. I agree with him in about 90% of questions. Maybe the measures he has taken against Corona are a bit too severe. In Switzerland the French Swiss now want to see measures being taken like in France. But the Bundesrat found that would be going too far. Time will tell who was right. I can understand the economic problems of the yellow vests and certainly Macron wasnt't sensitive enough there but that entire movement is quite irrational. There were just a few times where I disagreed with Macron. First of all in the case of the Corsican separatists where he insisted that the language of the French republic is French. (Makes sense given the constitution, but still...). And secondly I heard that personal genomic testing is illegal in France. If true that would be severely nonsensical.
I forgot something: regarding the EU joining process of northern Macedonia I was quite shocked that Macron blocked it. But now as the discussion about the EU joining process has been done, as he had demanded, he no longer blocks it, so that's fair enough.
Gaska,
You seem to be behind the curve mate. Latest from U.K. Govt is they are livid at China covering up number of actual cases....
Korea caught it early and locked down. Luckily for them, the outbreak was not in Seoul. If you know anything about S. Korea, you will note they are extremely insular (and exceptionally racists b.t.w). Almost on Japan’s level, but not quite.. ;-)
We will get through this. Stay safe...
@Bogdan,
Just a bit of feedback. I have enjoyed many of your post here and increasingly see you as worldly and insightful. Esp your comments about Covid-19 and also on this topic, to some of the other regulars (like our Spanish friend).
My conclusion (esp after your insights about Sth Koreans - have been there many times) is that you must be an Aussie. -- Worldly, blunt & know what you are talking about.
Cheers mate!
@Bogdan, PS
Re Koreans, I call them 'the Irish of Asia' - by this am saying, an oppressed proud smart people who resorted to philosohy and poetry to cope with their historical oppression. (Nth Koreans are a different story and too complicated to go into).
The closest and most sincere friends I ever made in Asia were ROK folk.
D
Bogdan, I am especially concerned about my family because my wife is a doctor and here in Spain there are hospitals with 40% of positive doctors on covid 19. In Italy 50 doctors have died and in Spain 6-
I think you are right about the lies of the Chinese (you have to multiply their figures by 50) and the Russians. They are miserable liars because the epidemic is much more contagious than they said. Here in Spain epidemiologists say that the number of infected must be multiplied by 10, 20 and even 30. Many people have no symptoms but spread to other people and only a small part need intensive care, therefore, mortality is not as high as it seems from the figures since only a small part of the population has been tested.
I still think that there are countries that have apparently done very well, such as South Korea and Japan, and although it is soon, I think that Australia and Canada too. In Europe we have all done it wrong and obviously the USA is going to be a disaster- Now each country is going to fight with its own resources and in three months we will see who are the ones that have done better.
I don't know if anyone is interested, but regarding Spain
1-We are very proud of our health system because they are fighting tirelessly and doing a great job because we are the country with the most patients who have overcome the disease (+15,000)
2-I think there is a great difference between the Mediterranean countries and those of northern Europe. They are more pragmatic, and even in some countries they defend euthanasia, however in our Mediterranean culture it is absolutely unacceptable to let our elderly die. We are trying to save everyone and there are patients who are in the news because they have overcome the disease with more than 90 years. We are proud that they can return home with their children and grandchildren. Many countries will think that it is better to allocate these human, sanitary and economic resources to the youngest people suffering from the disease, but we have decided not to make exceptions due to age.
3- Obviously we are going to ruin ourselves personally and collectively, but we will overcome it.
4-For all those who said that this is similar to seasonal flu. I do not know the data from other countries, but in Spain the flu caused 6,500 deaths last year (six months) and covid19, 6,500 deaths in 15 days. This is the pandemic that we are facing.
Stay safe Bogdan, and you too Dsjm, because I think you are an old friend with whom I was arguing in anthrogenica 2 years ago.
@Gaska
Unfortunately, it must be said that Italy, Spain and France reacted too slowly, and even escalated the crisis for themselves with some tragic decisions, like allowing large public events to take place when COVID-19 was already identified as a massive threat.
I think Italy 2020 will go down in history as a text book case of how not to deal with a pandemic. Spain won't be too far behind.
Northern, Central and Eastern European countries probably weren't much more aware of the threat, but they got lucky because they had a couple of key advantages, like generally smaller numbers of tourists and less social cultures. Some have managed to build on those advantages, while others, like the UK and Netherlands, not so much, in large part because their governments fell for the bullshit herd immunity theory.
Also, I'd say you're overestimating the level of infections in Spain. I think it's unlikely that even 10% of the population are infected at this stage, and in the end no more than 20% will be infected.
New rapid antibody tests will soon tell us what the situation is with that.
But yeah, as things stand right now, the US is heading for chaos, at least in parts of the country.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
Everyone should be very concerned about that American COVID-19 curve, whether they live in America or not.
Obviously our governments have been seriously wrong. Demonstrations, popular races, soccer matches etc, everything has been a disaster. I hope that governments pay for their mistakes, they should have been more cautious and mistrust the Chinese because they had a month to prepare and they did not. But which European country can make the decision to close its borders with 100/500 cases of covid19? -It is very difficult to make that decision-In view of the disaster in Italy and Spain, many countries closed (I hope in time) their borders-Portugal, Poland, etc.
You will see the figures for Uk, Netherlands, Belgium and Switzerland in three weeks. They will be worse than us.
Don't think I'm overestimating infection levels. We all have friends and family who have passed the disease with mild symptoms and only those who receive medical treatment in the hospital or at home are tested. In one week there have been more than 1,000 cases in the army that is disinfecting the entire country.The virus is surprisingly contagious
Leaving aside the terrifying economic consequences of the lockdown (France, Spain and Italy are the countries that receive the most tourists each year), the truth is that epidemiologists say that a second wave will surely occur in autumn (more deadly) and probably another one in the spring of 2.021 (like the 1918 flu). So take care in Australia, nothing will be the same after this motherfucker virus.
United States?-It seems that people are happy with the decisions of their president, so I have nothing to say about it, except to think that if the European health systems are collapsing, in the United States the situation will be even more painful.Economically it can be a disaster impossible to quantify. Someone has said on this blog that 650,000 people died from seasonal flu in the United States last year. I hope that the Covid 19 does not reach those figures and I pray every day for all of us.
At the end of all this, WHO must be taken to task for spreading all sorts of misinformation in the early stages.
Reportedly the Ayatollah Khamenei claims that Covid-19 is an American bio-weapon and specifically designed to hit Iranians, Iranian DNA having been used in the construction process. Seriously, how stupid does he believe the Iranians to be? By now the natural origin of this virus in China has been proven by comparative studies of its DNA.
Gaska,
Best wishes to you, wife and family that you all stay strong and healthy. Same to all in this blog. Que tengan mucha salud y que Dios nos de una ayudita. Stay safe.
@ wishfulthinking
Gracias, lo mismo para todos ustedes. Vienen tiempos dificiles pero lo superaremos.
Today a 12-year-old girl has died in Belgium, very strange and worrying.
Trumps team predicting 100-240k US deaths with peak 2 weeks from now, and tail in June.
dsjm1: thanks for your understanding...
Gaska: I appreciate your comments and understand it is personal for you and so many others across the World. It’s truly a Global pandemic and wish you and family safety and good health.
All: Never forget what COVID-19 translates to:
C: China
O: Originated
V: Virus
I: in
D: December
19: 2019
Guangxi province “wildlife consumption” markets are now back open in full force since the CCP has convinced their less astute population everything is fully under control and business as usual. Caged screaming domestic cats, dogs, bats, civets, pangolin you name it. All disgustingly slaughtered in close quarter, in abhorrent conditions, so that some rotten foul mouth rotten tooth heathen can get his exotic meal..
That’s all from me on that side of this issue. An interesting angle more appropriate for this blog is to discuss the mutations of C-19. For instance, it is rather proven at this point, based on tracing the mutations, that this China disease did not originate from the Wuhan lab...
@Gaska
The difference between the West in Asia is discipline. I'd take Western lack of discipline over having caused the pandemic in the first place. ANd if they are do disciplined why were there unregulted meat markets in the first place?
The US is now at Italy levels of deaths per day and will certainly surpass Italy.
But, half of all US cornavrius cases/deaths are in the New York City area (Tri-state area). If you ignore the New York City area, the US is doing pretty good.
@Samuel Andrews
The US isn't doing pretty good. Right now it's with its pants down waiting to get hit by a train, which is going to arrive at high speed sometime this month.
American hospitals are short of beds and staff, and the staff don't have adequate protection.
I read somewhere a few months ago that the US was the country best prepared for a pandemic, and the UK was second best. That ranking already looks like a joke.
31 March in South-Africa 1353-Cases and 5-Deaths.
@Simon
Macron lacked the guts to do the right thing in the right time. But that is not why I don't like him. He is listening to no one (except perhaps his wife), and made many mistakes already when he was a minister. Like not reforming public administration. I never voted for him, and I will never do.
That said, he is trying his best now, even if too late. One of his big mistake was simply to not apply what was decided 10 years ago (in a 2011 pandemic plan). If he did, the situation would have been far better today. And he was part of the government which destroyed our masks (1,6 billion in 2012). He was not directly responsible, but as counselor of Hollande and his minister of economy he is not without responsibility.
Yes, personal genomic testing is still illegal in France.
And yes, regional languages are not officialy recognized as such (Corsican, but also French Flemish, which I know better).
@sam
Situation in USA will be very difficult in the next months. And many US residents have obesity or diabete which are often found in the more severe cases of COVID 19. And if most Europeans will keep their jobs till the end of the lockdown at least, it is not the case in USA.
@all
Several teens died of COVID 19 in Europe in the past days: 13yo in England, 16yo in France, 12yo in Belgium. No comorbidity is known. DNA analysis will be made for some of them. Everybody is telling it is rare cases, but some babies died too in USA. It seems to me that Chineses may have lied on this too.
@Davidski,
"The US isn't doing pretty good. Right now it's with its pants down waiting to get hit by a train, which is going to arrive at high speed sometime this month."
What the hell are you talking about?
First of all, the USA has no control over stopping the virus from getting to our shores. The virus here is not due to a failing by the government.
We have responded properly to the virus. Basically our whole country is own shut down. Restaurants, schools, entertainment all shut down. What else do you want us to do? There's nothing else we can do.
Our healthcare system shows no signs of being overwhelmed. We still have much lower death rate than Italy, Spain, France do. There's no signs our healthcare system isn't prepared for this.
I'll say it again, it's only the New York City area which is doing badly. This is due to bad luck not lack of preparation by New York. The rest of the country isn't experiencing a pandamic yet.
@Samuel Andrews
Two points:
1) It was already too late for an adequate response in the US when I made this comment almost three weeks ago...
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/03/novel-coronavirussars-cov-2-open-thread.html?showComment=1584184407004#c7126981256096713617
Now what you're seeing is just damage control, and even that isn't being done properly in most of the country.
2) It seems to me you believe that the response is adequate because you still don't understand exponential growth, and you probably also don't realize that very few tests are being done in most of the US, which makes it look like things are still under control.
Some German updates:
1. While infection rates seem to decrease, lethality is now increasing strongly - 176 new deaths yesterday. This isn't yet Italy, Spain, France, the UK, Switzerland or Benelux yet, but we are on the way towards getting there.
2. The pandemy appears to lose it previously localised focus. For example, yesterday's 36 Bavarian fatalities (almost a quarter of all German fatalities) came from 26 different counties. This isn't going to be Wuhan, Bergamo, Madrid, NYC, Birmingham - heavy but localised. It's one dead here, another one there - not only in Bavaria, but actually across most of Germany. The good news is that such a nationwide scenario may probably be dealt with better by the health system than localised outbreaks. The bad news is: Don't feel (too) safe, because you aren't in, say, NYC or New Orleans...
[Epoch - if you are still reading this: Could you give some update on the Netherlands, where the picture might be similar? And: Beating us (ocassionally) in football is one thing, but more-less the same number of COVID-19 deaths, at a fifth of the total population, has come unexpectedly.].
3. Another, expectable issue is the Virus finding its way into nursery homes. The Würzburg (20 fatalities so far) and Wolfsburg (21 deaths) cases made it to the national media, but apparently there are a number of other nursery homes all across Germany with COVID-19 deaths and infected nurses (more than 140 internet articles with "Corona" "nursery home" [in German, of course] published during the last 24 hours). In fact, it appears that many of the recent fatalities relate to nursery homes, and that phenomenon alone will in all likelyhood cause many fatalities over the next days to come.
4. Having said that, some hot-spots are still identifiable. They contribute to the rising death toll and deliver worrying results as concerns lethality:
a. Heinsberg: 1,406 infected (incidence 5,528 pM), 39 fatalities (2.8% of all infected, 153 pM of the total population). Has spilled over into neighbouring Aachen (incidence 1,946 pM, 1,9% lethality, 38 pM) and Düren (2.1% lethality).
b. Tirschenreuth: 605 infected (8,344 pM), 32 fatalities (5.3% lethality, 441 pM). Has spilled over into neighbouring Wunsiedel (incidence 3,553 pM, 2.3% lethality, 82 pM) and Neustadt/Waldnaab (incidence 3,074 pM, 3.1% lethality, 95 pM).
c. Freiburg area (city, plus Breisgau and Emmendingen counties): 1,426 infected (2,166 pM), 45 (and rising) fatalities, 3.2% lethality (68 pM). The situation is also worsening in Lörrach county to the south (8 fatalities so far) and especially the Ortenau to the north (opposite of Strassbourg, 24 deaths). The latter provides an atypical picture, at only 745 pM infected so far, no nursery home cases reported in the local press, yet 7.5% mortality.
I spare you details on further hotspots such as the southern Münsterland and the Stuttgart and Munich peripheries. The main issues here are that
(i) we are dealing with regions that are certainly not undertested (the Tirschenreuth incidence surpasses San Marino and Andorra, Heinsberg ranks before Luxemburg and Iceland in this respect); and
(ii) data suggests that lethality may surpass 2.5% of attested infected even when the health system is still working at normal capacity utlisation, and internationally-reknowned medical research is locally available (Freiburg, Aachen).
Let me put it differently: In a quite remote part of Germany, namely Tirschenreuth County in the Fichtelgebirge, COVID-19 has to date killed double as many people per 1 million inhabitants as it has done in Italy or Spain (albeit a localised analysis will probably come up with areas in Italy, Spain or elsewhere that have had to pay a higher death toll). While mild to many, this virus is a killer, especially when it comes to the elderly !
The pandemy isn't over yet. To the opposite, the worst is probably still to come...
For Germany (and possibly many other countries), there is IMO one important conclusion to be drawn: This Virus is extraordinary - it doesn't "behave" (spread) as other virusses did;
E.g., the Spanish Flu especially affected children, so in that case it made a lot of sense to close schools. SARS-COV2, OTOH, appears to so far not have caused a single fatality among children (understood as those under the age of 12). So - what's the point in closing kindergardens,primary schools, playgrounds, toy shops atl? Obviously not protecting the children themselves! Protecting all the obese and/or over 65-aged working there? Or the childrens' parents (in all likelyhood also below 65 years of age and as such not a major risk group) from getting infected by their kids? Obviously, this is a prime example of decision makers around the world (including the German and US Governments) following text books instead of doing a little bit of analysis and drawing conclusions from it.
Second text book rule: Pandemies spread quickest in cities, for the "unhygienic conditions" and the intensity of contact there, see e.g. the 1892 Hamburg Cholera outbreak that was shipped to NYC by immigrants. Well, current incidence and lethality data suggests that one of the safest places in NRW to date is Dortmund. OK, Oberhausen and Herne still fare better, but overall, the Ruhr area, one of Europe's largest and most densely populated agglomerations, has, with the exception of nursery home incidents in Essen and Bochum, so far been hardly affected. In comparison to the Fichtelgebirge, Munich still looks fine (but not so the suburbs, e.g Freising). In Italy, we are talking about Bergamo, but apparently much less about Rome, Milan or Torino. This is not to say that cities are automatically immune - Wuhan, Madrid, NYC obviously were/are not. But at least in Germany, the pandemy is currently mostly taking its toll on rural areas, small towns and suburbs (plus nursery homes). This finding calls in question to which extent strategies geared at shutting down urban life (coffee shops, restaurants, cinemas etc.) are adequate and effective.
In fact, we already have quite a good idea about the vectors that have spread COVID-19. One vector certainly was tourism: Chinese tourists bringing the disease to Italy, Egypt, in all likelyhood also NYC, and ski tourists transporting it from the Alps to the Munich Area, Heinsberg, Hamburg, seemingly also Norway, Denmark and Sweden. Another vector were football spectators (the Bergamo-Valencia match, but also Glasgow vs. Leverkusen). A third one seems to be religious service - evidenced for S. Korea and the Alsace, and possibly playing a role as concerns different trajectories for Catholic countries / areas (inluding the Catholic Rhineland and Münsterland) vs. rather atheistic E. Europe (and the Protestant parts of North-Rhine Westphalia). [I'd btw be curious if this issue has already been analysed for Poland]. And, when it comes to rural/small-town Germany, we probably need to talk about institutions such as voluntary firefighters, rural womens' associations (Landfrauen) etc., and of course village councils.
All the a/m is unlikely to have been addressed in available text books. And most of it (aside from those Chinese tourists) has nothing to do with "foreigners", but instead with either well-rooted local small-town traditions, or (upper) middle-class lifestyle. As such, border closures, travel restrictions and the like are IMO nothing else but populist measures, with rather little chance for success, set in motion in order to either hide a lack of analytical skills and targeted action planning, or because the electorate might prefer enacting xenophopia over questionning the role its own life-style and traditions might have played in enabling the pandemy's spread.
Science is proving C-19 comes from nature, not a lab:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm
Most likely the disgusting heathen Wuhan wildlife “wet market”, one of many hundreds operating throughout China, a number of which are back in operation, despite the lying CCP ban not enforced to level they enforced extermination of people in infected areas:
https://www.peta.org/blog/coronavirus-covid-19-what-is-a-wet-market
How it got there is an unknown.
I’ve experienced these “wet markets” first hand and have plenty of vids to share, but dare not because most would not be able to recover from the visual impression and it’s not appropriate for this blog or any blog for that matter. -Trust me, you don’t want to see the “live action”.
I’ll not go into politics with exception to say, the bald face lying CCP will not recover from what they have done in this. Do not think for a second they will be back to business as usual. If you are in, or invested in China, best advice is to get the ‘f**k out ASAP.. No “mask diplomacy” is going to save those lying / cheating SOB’s...
@FrankN
Right, because it takes up to four weeks to die from this thing. That's what confuses a lot of people into thinking it's not as deadly as it really is.
One of the areas that will be extremely beneficial to mankind, is to thoroughly DEBUNK Chinese based natural medicine. It is deeply rooted in Culture and will not be easy, but as quickly as possible, it is necessary for the Chinese people to understand that “bear bile” (among so many other disgusting hocus pocus remedies) is complete nonsense and does not do anything other than killing more bears..... For their sake, they better learn fast....
@FrankN
Children are spreaders, that's why closing schools is the right move. By the way, you are wrong in believing that under 12 can't die: 2 babies died this week from COVID 19 (USA). Nobody knows what really happened in China, nor in Iran. So, it is dangerous to think than kids or young adults are not at risk to develop severe form of COVID 19. In France, many people in ICU are under 60, or even under 40. And to date, if hundreds of COVID+ are getting in ICU each day, not many are getting out alive (mostly because it is too early, but if people are needing ventilators, we know that many of them will not make it alive)
Virus is not moving by itself. It is needing people, and to spread, people meeting other people. It is therefore a very by idea to reopen places where people are meeting in close contact other people (like restaurants, bars,...).
About sport, some doctors are now saying that the soccer match between Olympique Lyonnais and Juventus is the cause of many contaminations around Lyon.
Germany is only a few days late on the wave. You'll have more and more deaths in the next weeks.
Only herd immunity will stop COVID 19 (with or without a vaccine).
By the way, I've heard yesterday a French doctor saying what should be obvious: East Asians are not Europeans. So, given that genetics are different, immunity responses are likely to be different as well, and sequelae too.
I had shared info on HCQ as a treatment before.
This tweet definitely needs widespread sharing:
https://twitter.com/yishan/status/1244717172871409666
It shows not only how it works but also what can help severe cases: blood transfusion. Also risk factors like high H1C, hemoglobin, blood sugar. High hemoglobin had been found as a risk factor by AI in a separate study.
Mehmet Kurtkaya
US made a big mistake by not shutting down major airports quickly enough. Also made a HUGE mistake by not sealing off the tristate region early for any entry and exit.
Unknown:
It does not surprise anyone that lying / corrupt CCP backed researchers (Wenzhong Lui / Huanan Li) would promote an antidote, but they don’t. Just more lies, copy something someone else proposed or invented. It is their modus operandi.... Nothing coming out of that Country can be trusted...
The CCP fumbled the “Wuhan Virus” in their own goal (end zone) and created a Global pandemic. Lesson for us all....
Here’s a take with more backbone behind it:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/china-researchers-isolated-bat-coronaviruses-near-/
There are consequences. The US and U.K. are now both close to revoke special trade status of HK (which has become a democratic farce) with consequence CCP co’s will no longer be able to raise capital there and potentially also clip the convertibility of RMB to USD or GBP. It sounds bad for HK, but it is much worse for the CCP...
And when I say much worse for the CCP, it may manifest as a CCP banking and property market collapse. Considering most Chinese have nearly all their savings and hopes tied up in their overpriced / inflated apartment homes (and speculated second apartment properties), over extended on RMB (funny money) debt, with virtually no other safety net....
Kick the tires and light the fires’.., We’re coming in low, heavy and red hot...
@Bogdan
I have been on the ÅŸnternet since more than 25 years and never posted a single comment anonymously, or have written anything anonymously.
The only reason I am posting online is because it's the first time I use a blog software and comment for the first time here or anywhere. I do not know hoe to get a username either but I always type my name and last name at the of my comment.
That said, the tweet I shared was important and was shared by many Americans and was commented upon by doctors. Funnily an anthropologist SPencer Wells has written the same thing that I thought blood group vs. severity of illness that was observed in another Chinese study.
By the way HCQ is prefered by doctors around the world at the moment there are very important drug repurposing efforts like this:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-network-scientists-drugs-covid-.html
and an anti parasitic drug in VITRO
https://en.as.com/en/2020/04/04/other_sports/1586014265_026414.html
Mehmet Kurtkaya
Thanks Mehmet. While “Network scientists” around the world race to win the “Olympics” to identify 40 new drugs to test against COVID-19, a two bit Chinese researcher at the Wuhan lab, Tian Junhua is busy as a bee, haphazardly testing more bat virus combinations to kill us all...
“Globalism” officially died on December 31st, 2019. -The date the corrupt, lying and systematic cheating CCP once again belatedly informed the equally corrupt WHO of an outbreak...
@Folker:
“So, given that genetics are different, immunity responses are likely to be different as well, and sequelae too...”
Ahhh. Just imagine the putrid stench of my diseased Yamnaya R1b ancestors, fumbling their way along the great Steppe plains in the BA like a horde of destitute “Okies”, killing all others in their wake with their pestilence and highly contagious viruses....
Well, it seems like third world countries are going to see their healthcare systems totally overwhelmed pretty soon, and after that, there won't be any point in continuing social distancing and lockdowns in these places.
That's because COVID-19 is going to quickly burn through their populations until "herd immunity" is achieved, at least temporarily. If that does happen, then several million people might die.
But it's still not clear to me what will happen in the US and Europe.
Increasing testing and effectively isolating cases and their contacts so that COVID-19 is basically neutralized seems about the only plausible exit strategy until an effectice vaccine is mass produced.
Australia and New Zealand might be able to eradicate COVID-19 within the next month or so, and then gradually get everything going again. But they probably won't be able to open up their borders, except to each other, for another year.
Dave: "Increasing testing and effectively isolating cases and their contacts so that COVID-19 is basically neutralized
The problem here is that SARS-CoV2 is infectious already 2-3 day before it becomes symptomatic, and some 50% of the infections date to that non-symptomatic period. Add 2 days before the symptoms become serious enough to consult a doctor, another 2-3 days for test processing, reporting back to the doctor, the patient, and authorities, and relate that to the 4-8 days that the Virus is still infectuous after showing first symptoms. Essentially: When a case has been officially identified and becomes isolated, it has already conveyed some 90% of its infection potential. Good luck in identifying all the contacts during that infectuous period!
Data source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Steckbrief.html
(in German)
Germany tried that approach, and failed. Singapore, from what I have read, is - in spite of initial success - now also deeming it insufficient to deal with the pandemy. I seriously hope that Australia and New Zealand fare better, but I wouldn't bet on it...
"It seems like third world countries are going to see their healthcare systems totally overwhelmed pretty soon, and after that, there won't be any point in continuing social distancing and lockdowns in these places.
That's because COVID-19 is going to quickly burn through their populations until "herd immunity" is achieved, at least temporarily. If that does happen, then several million people might die."
There's no doubt that the pandemy will also affect Third World countries, and that their health system is in no way equipped for it. Albeit I think that Ebola might have prepared significant parts of Africa better for things to come than, say, Brazil, Venezuela, Thailand, India or Indonesia, which I wouldn't qualify as Third World anymore. Moreover, since COVID-19 appears to employ a similar mechanism as Malaria, namely degrading Hemoglobin (thx for the interesting link, Mehmet!), and might to some extent be cured by anti-Malaria drugs, acquired immunity against Malaria could also help in reducing susceptibility against COVID-19.
Most importantly, COVID-19 fatality is highly age-specific:
- In China, the fatality for under 40s was 0.2%, compared to 8% for the 70-79, and 14.8% for the over 80 age cohorts;
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
- An ad-hoc assemblage of German data yields the following age-specific fatality rates (figures probably need to be doubled in order to account for recent infections that couldn't yet show their lethality potential):
Under-60 0,1%, 60-79 2.8%, 80+ 11.4%
Data source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-04-07-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
- For S. Korea, rates are 0.1% below 50, 5.4% 70-79, 10.8% for 80+
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.14.20036178v2.full.pdf
That latest source also determined the difference in fatality rates caused alone by different age structures of the populations concerned. According to them, the Chinese fatality rate should only be 70% of the S. Korean one, while Italy (with Europe's oldest population) should - all other factors, e.g. health system quality, equal - end up with 1.6 times the S. Korean mortality.
Now, one feature of developing countries is their proportionally young population. There is very little of over-60s, and those who made it to that age, w/o a well functionning health system, are less likely to suffer from "medical preconditions" than their counterparts in developed countries.
Of course, demographic vulnerability calculations need to be prepared for all "Third World" countries individually, and they might yield a bleak outlook for e.g., Latin America. However, when it comes to the "poorest of the poorest", they will in all likelyhood much more suffer from the global economic fallout*) than from the virus itself. To exemplify my point, I have prepared estimates according to the same methodology as applied by the source above, i.e. applying S. Korean age-specific fatality rates to a countries age structure, with the following results:
1. Niger (certainly among the "poorest of the poorest"): 37,871 deaths, 0.16% of the total population
2. Brazil: 1,2870,547 deaths, 0.61% of the total population.
*) The Corona crisis has a/o reduced European cut flowers sales by 85%. Cut flowers are Ethiopia's and Kenia's #1 export commodities.
@Frank
Germany hasn't failed because it hasn't tried this approach yet.
To try this approach, considering its population, it would have to run at least 100,000 COVID-19 tests a day.
Thanks FrankN bur today I have seen another detailed post also including other doctors treating patients that hemoglobin elevation is a downstream effect of inflammation. WHole thread here
https://twitter.com/__ice9/status/1247194151701151745
including recommendations by Prof. Michael Makris and replies.
There was another doctor From NYC, who gad observed that people experienced something similar to high altitude sickness and HEPA but this is explained by the above thread.
ANyways it is a new virus and there is a lot more to be discovered.
BUT there is another very important development that was also a major part of the discussion in this thread Social Immunity (Herd Immunity).I had opposed to it from day one and was proven right because now a third of patients with mild disease do not have "much" antibodies (hence maybe refinfected). I did not use "enough" because immunity situation is still not clear.
This was my suspicion since February (reinfection reports), that type of immunity will be difficult to come by and until vaccine development things will be shaky.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
Mehmet Kurtkaya
I'm still seeing claims from many internet warriors that the lockdowns across the world aren't justified because the COVID-19 case fatality rate appears to be rather low.
But the important thing to understand is that many more people have died from this thing than has been officially reported because:
- few, if any, countries carry out widespread COVID-19 tests of dead people, since such tests are in high demand for the living
- many victims in the COVID-19 hotspots have died at home, or in care homes, without even being properly diagnosed.
Dave: "Germany hasn't [..] tried this [testing and isolation] approach yet."
It has, at least during February, and at least in a few states. E.g., when in Hamburg a doctor, after returning from skiing holidays, reported himself sick after one day of work, the whole hospital station (patients and staff) were immediately quarantined and tested - and his contacts as well (including a friend of mine, working in another hospital, who was tested negatively). Why do you think Hamburg for weeks had the highest incidence rate among all German cities / states, yet even as per yesterday only showed 13 fatalities pM, half of the German average (26 pM). And why is Germany, where one of the earliest (the earliest?) European COVID-19 case was diagnosed, some 3-4 weeks behind on the infection curve compared to Spain, Italy, France, the UK, even the Netherlands?
The approach worked, but only for a few weeks. Then, some people went under the radar, carrying the infections to such unlikely places as Tirschenreuth, or Greiz County in Thuringia. Even the Heinsberg "Patient Zero" was indentified with only one day delay and quarantined, but that day delay had sufficed for him to infect a local carneval session. That was sort of your "border guards fallen asleep" scenario - nobody works in the Rhineland during Carneval, and that apparently included local health offices (plus, unfortunately, our Federal Minister of Health).
Plus - this is what might make Australia different from Germany - infections encroached over the borders. The trail from Borken County (on the Dutch border) through the Münsterland to the Osnabrück area is clearly visible, as is the spread from Alsace to the Freiburg area (and now the Saarland, especially Sarrebruck as the economic hub of also NE Lorraine, is becoming another hotspot). Infection numbers over the last week have been rising over proportion in border districts such as Miesbach, Traunstein and Rottal-Inn (Austria), Bitburg-Prüm (Luxemburg), or Grafschaft Bentheim (Netherlands). [Intrestingly, the safest place to be, both in terms of overall and of 7-days incidence, is the Uckermark, next to Stettin]
Testing capacity, btw, is not a major bottleneck. Germany currently runs 500,000 tests per week, somewhat short of the 100,000/day you have mentionned, but in relation to the total population clearly above S. Korea's 20.000 tests/day.
@Frank
I'm talking about testing on a massive scale after R0 has been brought down to well below 1, and kept there for many weeks, by social distancing and lockdowns.
I'm not sure what you're referring to, because Germany has only recently introduced strict social distancing rules?
Germany and Norway now have quite similar statistics in terms pr million infected (G: 1353 vs N: 1115) and pr million dead (G: 28 vs N: 19).
And here now the Government is optimistic, and full suppression and eradication is now the official the strategy,
This was adopted tentatively at first with the Giverment choosing stronger lockdown measures than the official epidemiologist and public health experts,
but now with data of the last 30 days it is pursued with optimism, with RO officially estimated at 0,7.
In economic terms the costs have been immense (even though we don’t have as sever restrictions as most other countries in lock-down),
but in public health terms it has been a tremendous success: only about 10-20 % of ICU units and ventilators are in use.
(And by now we should allready be lending the spare capacity to our neighbours..)
Originally I did not consider this to be a viable strategy. I thought that a full suppression strategy was too late to be effective allready in early March. It would only slow flatten the exponential curve of new cases but not turn it linear or even downward. But I have proven wrong on, I concede, otherwise the data would indicate something else (and Norway is currently among the top nations in terms of number of tested per million - so the data ought to be credible.)
I prefered another alternative, that of full national lockdown combined with a region by region opening, establishing herd immunity step wise (so as not to overwhelm the total national health care capacity) until the whole country is open.
I thought the third alternative of long term lock down to slow the rate of transmission would simply prolong the duration of the hardship and with large social health costs of its own, not just the econmic. But now, if the official optimism is warranted then it seems it it is posdible not just to slow it down but full eradication within Norway.
I have no strong preference between the outcomes of the epidemic being halted by eradication or herd immunity. I am biased towards the quickest outcome. But it may be possible afterall that full eradication is the only quick option if the low antibody count in recovered patients in a recent study implies that immunity cannot be obtained. I doubt that implication, but I am open to that possibility.
Norway’s experience is still different from Germany in one crucial respect: Germany has reached the current numbers of infected and dead largely from March 17 and up til now, while in Norway our jumped up allready around March 10 and has been steady since then. Norway’s cases of infection and dead are more spread out than Germany’s and thus Germany has had a more recent and steep growth to reach and surpass Norway in pr million infected and dead.
The situation is more under controll in Norway, but still I reckon supression might still be a viable strategy in Germany too.
That is my quick update on the covid-19 challenge in Norway and a comparison with Germany (based on numbers from worldometers.info).
I may add that in early March, around the 13, Norway was among hardest hit in the world in terms of numbers of infected pr million. It seems we were very lucky in early discovery, and timing in government response.
@Boppo
Herd immunity isn't a plausible strategy not only because the antibody count may be too low in many people, and subsequent infections more dangerous. It's also dodgy because it would require millions of people to be infected quickly, and thus result in many deaths, including among random young people, even in countries with relatively robust healthcare systems.
One of the important things to keep in mind is that COVID-19 is a very new disease, so as we find out more about it, we'll be able to fight it more successful even before vaccines become available.
So aiming for herd immunity, with all of the risks that it entails, is simply not acceptable in this day and age. It shouldn't even be seen as a likely side effect of mitigation, but rather as a side effect of a total breakdown of the healthcare system.
Covid-19 will be eradicated and that's the only strategy I support since day one. The top SOuth Korean infectious disease doctor had given the example of smallpox eradication in 1980 though he did not make a direct statement for covid-19.
In this time and age, social immunity is totally unacceptable for ANY unknown dangerous virus, on solely humanitarian grounds, apart from the feasibility perspective regarding immunity viability for some people.
Mehmet KUrtkaya
COVID 19 can't be eradicated given its presence in every part of the world. It is clear that many countries in Africa, Asia or South America don't give correct numbers. Take a look at what is happening in Ecuador.
China was not able to eradicate COVID 19 in due time (and it is still under the radar), and by early january it was already to late as the virus was already abroad.
In France, lockdown has reduced R0 to less than 1 in many regions, but not everywhere. Paris and nearby Seine Saint Denis are big concern. Statistics of Bouches du Rhone (Marseille) are not clear, but COVID 19 seems to still spread. But herd immunity will be difficult to have in France: it seems that only 1 or 2 millions have been in contact with SARS COV 2.
First let me give the countries whose response I admire: 1- South Korea, 2- Russia, 3- New Zealand, 4-Australia. My hopes are really high for these countries eradicating first.
The countries who did really bad: 1- Obviously China for covering up initially and accusing Europe of being racist for trying to stop international travel. 2- Turkey(my country) Iran etc. 3- US, UK Italy and Spain and the West in general. These 4, Especially US and UK are unbelievable. They literally waited for the pandemic to take root, given their resources they totally blew it. I cut some slack to the Italians, they are overly cited, and I trust both Spanish and Italian number reporting but I know that they are not representative because of capacity. I do not trust Turkey's numbers of course, but noone does anyways. For most countries the figures are way higher probably by an order of magnitude(x10) or more.
Yes, it will be eradicated but probably with vaccination though I still hope through lockdown testing and following up will do the trick.
Mehmet Kurtkaya
@Folker
It's being eradicated in large pars of Australia, which aren't even totally locked down.
The state and many regional borders have been closed off, and the eradication is being done locally with mass testing, and then isolating the cases and all known contacts.
It seems to be working very well where I'm at currently.
1. I haven't been able to find a clear/concise map that shows which regions are locked down, and which are not. Ideally with a start and (current) end dates for the lockdown. Any pointers?
If this sounds ridiculous (ie "it's locked down everywhere"), it's because I'm in Taiwan, and we have not had any shelter-in-place orders at any point. I figure there must be some spots other than TW not under lockdown, and it would be nice to get a view by future date of which countries have set conservative vs aggressive future dates.
2. I assume others have seen the news about Singapore, they lost containment of local transmission. Discouraging in general, and for the people there, including some that work for me that thought they'd avoid the black swan.
3. It's been curious to observe the delta between tested:excluded cases here, currently around 5k out of 42k tested. Confirmed infection total = 380, with 80 recovered. About 70k people in home quarantine, nearly all because of the 'land and quarantine' policy since Feb, with a spike in returning university students during March.
From looking at the time series over the last ~9 weeks, latency in test results/publishing test results does not seem to be the primary factor in the non-trivial percentage of indeterminate cases. Have not been able to find any mention of raw data on #+/- results per person. It appears diagnostic indeterminacy is an ongoing reality at this point.
4. The woman leading the team doing the phylogenetic work to trace local transmission is 葉秀慧. The local transmission is down to 0-3 new cases per day at this point, with few unknown vectors at this point. Her lab was focused on the original SARS-CoV as it happened here, and I have a moderate degree of hope they'll come through with an effective vaccine.
@David
I don't think that any part of the world could prevent this virus diffusion without a lockdown at some point. Isolating cases and tracking are working for a time, but eventually someone will be missed, and will be the cause an epidemic surge. The only possibility for Australia to not go that way would be to close borders for 2 years. To everybody, including residents and australians. It is not yet the case, so you will have the wave at some point. South Korea has done well, but virus will come back with travellers and North Koreans (even if there is limited contact). Singapore is a good example of what will happen. By the way, COVID 19 was under control in France till the evangelist meeting in Alsace. This single event caused massive contamination and eventually lockdown.
@Folker
Now that the overseas cases are dropping and the bars and sporting facilities are closed, there's very little community transmission here, and the virus is disappearing.
They're actually thinking up of new ways of finding it, and it's generally not showing up, except in the close contacts of the people who were already infected.
It seems like this virus needs fairly big and regular social events to spread, and it can be killed with a limited lockdown and social distancing.
I'm betting that there won't be any new cases in Australia within four weeks. And then all we have to do is not open up the international borders except to people who are willing to spend two weeks at quarantine stations.
That's obviously not an ideal situation, but it would at least mean that the country can start functioning again, maybe along with New Zealand in a special COVID-19-free zone.
Davidski:
Go to Flightradar24: Live Tracker and note how relative few flights coming/going both internal and external out of OZ/NZ. Now pan north and look at China (and for that matter Japan).. Monitor that volume for some days to get to a more full Jesus H. Christ moment.
Canvas over to US (which would normally have 2x the traffic of China). No pan over to Europe...
Ask yourself who is going to be predominantly and overwhelmingly spreading this COVID-19 shit for many months to come....
The CCP is going full force heard immunity now. It’s obvious. Keep an eye on Flightradar24 during the lockdown period. A lot can be gleaned from it...
The USA now looks like a total fucking disaster. I can't believe some of these idiots on TV are talking about the curve flattening.
The pandemic hasn't even properly started in many parts of the country, especially the poorer areas of the south.
Trump and the rest better pray for a vaccine within months, or this will unravel so quickly they won't know where to hide.
Those of you who still think COVID-19 isn't much different from the seasonal flu should read this interview with an English paramedic.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/its-heartbreaking-people-dying-at-home-help-denied-them
@Davidski:
The curve in the US will flatten and subside. Total figures will naturally be higher due to its highly mobile, free and open society. Exterminating 20-30k people in an infected area like the PRC did in the early outbreak in Wuhan, is obviously not a strategy for the US, although that strategy is and was somewhat effective...
If for some reason, the ‘curve’ does not flatten within the next several months in the US and its economy goes tits up, you and everyone on this great blog of yours worldwide will become destitute. And virtually no amount of cash will save your ass. Book it. THAT is what you and so many others around the world need to understand and what you need to be most concerned about... People gonna die. We are all, in fact, doomed to die...
Bogdan,
Thank you. As a small business owner I couldn't agree more. In the USA it is already referred to as 'house arrest'. People are aware that government employees at every level are still employed, while in the private sector their jobs, businesses, and families go under. Institute safety measures so people can get back to work. Will people die from covid19 once we are back to work? Of course they will. How many vs how many are becoming destitute? There are already 22 million unemployed in the USA. Will people start committing suicide, spousal and child abuse spike in large numbers if we keep our economy shut down. It is already happening.
This shutdown is untennable.
@Bogdan & wishfulthinking
Yeah, it's now too late for the US to get out of this without a lot of damage and carnage, due to the incompetence of pretty much everyone in power over there.
There's still a way to significantly minimize the damage though, by ramping up testing and contact tracing to industrial levels, and also getting things moving in a very smart, focused way.
So, for instance, the subway in NYC would need to be used in some way that minimizes the level of corona transmissions.
I think it's possible, but hey, what would I know?
NYC is very different from most other cities in the USA. Even California's large metro areas do not have the demographic congestion that you see in NYC and other North East areas such as those found in New Jersey. **NYC depends on mass transit.** California and most of the country does not. Look at Florida. Most of the covid19 cases are concentrated on three counties, and the number of deaths are highest in Palm Beach not Miami Dade even though the latter has higher population. But there's more of an elderly pop in Palm Beach. Should the rest of Floridas counties stay shut down for another month or more because of three counties statistics?
Trump closed travel from China in late January and travel from Europe soon thereafter. Took longer to close travel from UK. I think he should have closed that sooner. In the first two instances he was heavily criticized. The head of WHO stated in January that the virus was not contagious from person to person...Still Trump closed the country against the onslaught of criticism from domestic and foreign 'experts'.
He had field hospitals built in NYC and the Pacific NW that were hardly used. He positioned two navy medical ships off the east and west coasts. Hardly used. We have hospitals all over the country laying off nurses because theres no work for them. Our only hot spots are in very specific areas. Now we are going to start reopening the country step by step and pull back if needed. I understand that it is tricky. However, every state government and every county government has carte blanche on how they do this based on their dynamics. The USA is not monolithic.
What else should our government have done sooner? What have the governments of the UK, Germany, France done, that was done sooner and has been more effective? The massive numbers of projected deaths have not materialized in the US. We have 22 million people unemployed now. What should we do, wait till we have twice that number and the food supply chains are twice as backlogged as they are now?
I for one, as an American citizen am grateful at what the current USA government has done. Was it perfect and are we in the clear? No. But now we have to move forward. For every 1% increase in unemployment in the USA there is a 1000 (at least) increase in the number of suicides. We have already had suicides in my state because of this covid19 situation. I dont blame Trump. I blame the Chinese communist party which knew of the contagion and kept the data hidden for one full week before warning other nations. Why did they shut down travel from Wuhan to the rest of China but not to Italy or the rest of the world?
@wishfulthinking
Well, for one, there should've been a very smart pandemic protocol in place and it should've been activated to the max once the first few COVID-19 cases turned up in the US. Obviously, that sort of thing involves testing on a massive scale, PPE for healthcare workers and other essential workers, basic face masks for the public, etc.
On top of that, instead of talking nonsense at the time that this was nothing more than a flu and it would blow over once the summer came, Trump should've been thinking away ahead and encouraging social distancing.
Clearly, you're not thinking straight. Your government has put you in this position not just by declaring a lockdown, but much earlier by being totally naive and unprepared.
And if you think that not many people have died yet in the US from COVID-19, and that only some parts of the country are badly affected, then just wait a few months, and then come back here and tell me whether you still think that.
@Davidski, You're right the US should have acted sooner. Obviously the US made a mistake by not reacting in January and February. They had the choice and President Trump chose not to.
But like wishfulthinging says, what country did react in January, February? I can't think of any. Did any in Western Europe? More than anything I think it is just a surprising and shocking virus no country prepared for.
And they get much help from China. A lot of blame for the spread of this pandemic needs to be placed on China. They were not transparent with the international community. They should be blamed for allowing it to spread to other countries. China should locked down international travel. And China should be blamed for covering up important information about the cornavrius from the world.
@Davidski, On January 2, the WHO claimed human to human transmission of cornavirus doesn't happen. By, January 2 I'm sure Chinese tourists had already begun spreading cornavirus in Europe.
And It wasn't until January 31st, that the WHO declared cornavirus a pandamic emergency. Btw, a few days later Trump closed off travel from China. Italy closed off travel from China on January 28th. But obviously it was too late, and travelers from China already planted cornavirus in Europe.
The virus had ravaged Wuhan China for well over a month, before the rest of the world was alerted about its danger. No country could have prepared for this because China did not communicate. A lot of responsibility for this pandemic goes on China.
Those who cannot control over the top Socialistic mindset in this time of worldwide Wuhan virus pandemic need to find your balls and get a grip’. Even Karl Marx would blush and be thoroughly embarrassed over the girlish “Piers Morgan’ style blowhard coward hysteria from some of you....
The US restricted flights from China on Jan 31st, 2020. There was only 102 cases of Wuhan virus in the US on March 3rd. Unfortunately for the US, the vast majority of infections came in after, FROM EUROPE....
So if any of you want to point blame outside of the diabolical lying PRC regime, look no further than the collection of weak kneed, hedonistic and lazy, tax anything and everything nit wit career European mongrel Politicians, that collectively make over 10x their actual worth...
The absolute cost of the Wuhan virus upon the USA is $25 Billion, PER DAY. Do not think for a second a status quo will resume in a Global context, once this current pandemic settles down...
The PRC is going to take a big one square, no lube. Putin’s collection of mafioso corrupt thieves will naturally know this is not their fight....
The two bit European Politicians will need to decide who’s side they are actually on. There is no middle ground. The judgement is already unfolding. For all intents and purposes, Globalism is dead.
It is so sad for the poorest of the world. Those fools in my own USA who say that lives are more important than the economy are about to see what happens in the third world when the developed nations and their own economy come to a halt.
It's now likely that millions of people are going to die directly and indirectly from COVID-19 infections across the world, but especially in the third world, unless a vaccine is mass produced this year. And if restrictions are lifted suddenly and haphazardly that number will be much higher.
So that's the main and most immediate problem and tragedy.
Lockdowns and other restrictions must be lifted when there are solid plans and capabilities for that to happen right. They shouldn't be lifted otherwise, because there's no point, since a society cannot have a healthy economy and society when a significant part of the populations is at risk of falling seriously ill and dying.
Yes the lockdown has to be lifted in stages and be well monitored to be able to detect any back slides into increased cases. But it must be lifted. Shutting down the economy is not saving lives. It is exchanging the lives of one Covid victim for 600 lives cast into poverty and economic anxiety which also lead to deaths. This is in addition to the lives of all those people whose surgeries and treatments were delayed and healthcare denied sometimes at critical times in their illness.
We could be waiting a year for a vaccine. Some people are saying that we need full lockdowns until then, otherwise there is always a risk of return.
No matter how necessary right now, I feel the longer lockdowns go on and the more people lose jobs over the econ. inactivity -no matter how much this really is more than mortality rates - the more people will start to take a fresh look at exactly who is dying from this and ask themselves if automatic global economic ruin is worth this against the risk of getting back out there, suffering horribly yes, but still with (faint!) hope that the economy won't collapse. A collapse that some might feel could be mitigated by the sacrifice of a shift toward a colder way of thinking.
Even more so given that people are already somewhat restless about being cooped up after just 1 month. Pretty soon, people might just have had enough of being told they can't do this or this. That's just how humans are, no matter how much we all know it's for the common good.
I would say that, if a vaccine is a year away, at some point from now until then, the overall damage of a full lockdown will overtake the damage of lifting lockdowns no matter how much COVID-19 is raging and collapses health systems.
In these times, people are scared stiff of the virus, the health of their loved ones. People who say they are more concerned about the economy tend to be dismissed as cold and inhuman. But we should also remember that an economic depression will also cause all of the suffering this virus brings, and more: worldwide economic ruin, >35% unemployment in all countries,hundreds of millions losing their homes and as a result, risk of civil unrest as it will be nearly impossible to get a job for the next 7-10 years. Already 22mill unemployed in the U.S. People steal and kill to keep their families fed and safe. And if people get angry at China and demand justice, populist governments might want to satiate their appetite. In which case, we're already in paradise in comparison of what's to come.
We are being told to prepare for 'a new normal' but it's only fair that if the concept of 'normal' is under review, then a full audit of that should take place and we consider everything. All is fair and love and war and all that...
Will we see health authorities, after having to lift lockdowns without a vaccine and feeling their hands are tied, saying 'Get used to the new normal: to stave off collapse, we are not going to admit over 65's/clinically obese with coronavirus'. Would that even give systems some room to breathe? Who knows. But we need to get used a new normal of asking some difficult questions.
If the boat's sinking and you know that throwing some people off will definitely save it,who gets thrown out? Or do we choose all go down with it?
Utterly horrible and unfair, but you can also imagine people who lose their home and are forced onto the street through no fault of their own thinking that it isn't fair. And that will be millions around the world.
The question is: when does the cure become worse than the disease?
On the issue, here is a link to possibly the most impactful and important series of statements and follow on rebuttal a German journalist has published in the past 50 years:
https://www.bild.de/politik/international/bild-international/bild-chief-editor-responds-to-the-chinese-president-70098436.bild.html?wtmc=twttr.shr
Russia continues to go almost one in one on the German schedule with a lag of 3 weeks:
Russia:
2020-04-09 10,131(+17%) 76(+21%)
2020-04-10 11,917(+18%) 94(+24%)
2020-04-11 13,584(+14%) 106(+13%)
2020-04-12 15,770(+16%) 130(+23%)
2020-04-13 18,328(+16%) 148(+14%)
2020-04-14 21,102(+15%) 170(+15%)
2020-04-15 24,490(+16%) 198(+16%)
2020-04-16 27,938(+14%) 232(+17%)
2020-04-17 32,008(+15%) 273(+18%)
2020-04-18 36,793(+15%) 313(+15%)
2020-04-19 42,853(+16%) 361(+15%)
2020-04-20 47,121(+10%) 405(+12%)
2020-04-21 52,763(+12%) 456(+13%)
2020-04-22 57,999(+9.9%) 513(+13%)
Germany:
020-03-19 10,999(+34%) 20(+67%)
2020-03-20 13,957(+27%) 31(+55%)
2020-03-21 16,662(+19%) 47(+52%)
2020-03-22 18,610(+12%) 55(+17%)
2020-03-23 22,672(+22%) 86(+56%)
2020-03-24 27,436(+21%) 114(+33%)
2020-03-25 31,554(+15%) 149(+31%)
2020-03-26 36,508(+16%) 198(+33%)
2020-03-27 42,288(+16%) 253(+28%)
2020-03-28 48,582(+15%) 325(+28%)
2020-03-29 52,547(+8.2%) 389(+20%)
2020-03-30 57,298(+9.0%) 455(+17%)
2020-03-31 61,913(+8.1%) 583(+28%)
2020-04-01 67,366(+8.8%) 732(+26%)
2020-04-02 73,522(+9.1%) 872(+19%)
2020-04-03 79,696(+8.4%) 1,017(+17%)
2020-04-04 85,778(+7.7%) 1,158(+14%)
2020-04-05 91,714(+6.9%) 1,342(+16%)
2020-04-06 95,391(+4.0%) 1,434(+6.9%)
2020-04-07 99,225(+4.0%) 1,607(+12%)
2020-04-08 103,228(+4.0%) 1,861(+16%)
Vlad:
Geographically speaking:
Russia controls 1/5th the Global land mass, much of which is barren wasteland...-Unfortunately for them, they got massive amounts of recent ally P.R.C. people infiltrating through their “sieve borderlands”. -The two-bit Russian Govt mafioso thieves and crooks are helpless to stop it.......
Economically speaking:
the Russian economy is roughly the size of New York State (previous C-19 pandemic), so that’s their competition....
Politically speaking:
Outside of shear land mass, nukes and declining oil revenues, the Russian Gov’t has no Cock.
Google it. In Italy 99% of people who have died from COVID-19 are over 50 years old. 95% are over 60. 84% are over 70.
This virus is only dangerous towards old people. People under 50 are basically immune to COVID-19.
Also, the only people who get tested for the virus are people who succomb to its symptoms. Once again this is mostly old people. Therefore, the number of people who have been ifected is much higher than the number of confirmed cases. And therefore, the death rate is much lower than the 3.2% we first heard.
Nations need to think outside of the box. Don't quarentine the whole freaking society. Only quartine people over 60 especially those with chronic conditions.
The lockdowns are getting ridiculous.
@Sam
The virus is not "only dangerous towards old people" and no "People under 50 are basically immune to COVID-19".
If most people dying are above 60, it is not meaning nobody under 50 can't die of it. And no, " the only people who get tested for the virus are people who succomb to its symptoms". Many other people have been tested too. Look at Germany. And deaths in Italy are above 10%, they are above 3% in Germany.
By the way, you should consider another fact: due to lack of beds, some countries have used "triage". It was the case in Italy, Spain and France (not officially, but an administrative instruction has been made to not put on ventilator people above 75). Many people above 75 were not considered as a priority, which is meaning: not ventilator for them. And no ventilator is meaning death.
Dear Vladimir, do you really think the Russian data is real. Reports suggest, the real figure is far higher. The only thing that could explain the similarity with German data, considering the vast differences in treatment and transparency between the two countries is fraud. Wouldn't you agree?
@Sam Andrews @Vladimir
Just reported (08.32 GMT)
Al Jazeera reports statement by Moscow mayor: corona virus cases much higher than reported. At least 100,000 and possibly as high 300,000.
USA: States 1,289,235 confirmed cases and 76,537 tragic deaths.
Are you hearing this Sam Andrews?
Are you reading this Vladimir?
@NeilB
Samuel is correct to a degree, in the sense that the USA sleepwalked into a disaster, like most countries, and its society and economy aren't designed for long lockdowns or even strict social distancing.
So the US has to open up soon, no matter what. My hope is that the authorities, at all levels, do everything they can to minimize the damage.
In fact, America really needs to show some awesome planning and ingenuity now, because when masses of people start dying and being maimed by COVID-19 its economy won't function too well, no matter how open it is officially.
I wouldn't be surprised if the final death toll in the US is close to a million people before a cure and/or vaccine are found, but let's see what happens.
Davidski, Sam is only right, in that the USA is the worst combination of 1st and 3rd world countries: it has the highest economic inequality in its population and as we have seen in the UK, poor people, for a variety of reasons, die in greater numbers.Poor people do not have the savings to hunker down. Therefore when their government says its OK to get back to work they can only agree, no matter the consequences. In the UK the government is paying for a huge percentage of the population to stay home. They may have done a crap job initially but now they are choosing compassion over the economy. We'll see what Boris Johnson has to say tomorrow on continued lockdown.
The other part of the problem the USA has is the 'underlying health conditions' issue. Across the USA, obesity, type 2 diabetes and heart disease are common, the first two in all age groups. These make covid19 harder to survive. This + an early end to lockdown will lead to a horrific deathtoll there. And for what? So Trump can get the economy moving again? He's basically gonna sacrifice the poor, unwell and old so rich people can stay rich. That is morally bankrupt. Yes indeed we'll see how this plays out. NeilB
NeilB:
You are confusing Trump with Cuomo. It was the latter who issued a directive forcing nursing homes to take in patients positive with the wuhan virus. This was a deliberate act of murder given that nursing homes are not equipped in the least to treat acute cases during a pandemic. Now, after 1000s died and were unnecessarily infected Cuomo has rescinded that order.
It was President Trump who had two naval hospital ships positioned off the east and west coasts of the USA, and set up field hospitals in several states. Regarding your statements about the USA being the worst of 3rd world and 1st world nonsense, sources as in plural/multiple please. Also, I guess European and Asian countries have no problems with obesity, diabetes, and smoking. Right.
@ Sam:
Spot on.
@ NeilB:
Neither a native Russian or Chinese person living in these demagogic led / corrupt Counties can comment much... They dare not stick neck out. It’s easier for them to lie, copy, cheat and steal. That is their MO and recent culture..
On this most recent ‘Kung Fu’ Flu / ‘Wuhan China virus, rest assured there are thousands of dedicated Russians and Chinese working desperately to steal any antidote and/or vaccine the free world comes up with. They have already infiltrated Western labs, Universities and Companies that are apparently still too stupid and naive to recognize what is going on and stop it.
A Chinese co even recently submitted a Chinese patent claim on a new Gilead Sciences US patent for their new REMDESIVER drug to mitigate effects of C-19. It’s ridiculous....
Davidski will be quite pleased to learn that now these belligerent Counties are going to get their collective nuts cut off...
TIC::Government should just print ‘funny money’ living wage to citizens so we can all collectively sit on our ass, tending to the backyard garden and blog post all day....
You claim my statement that the USA is the worst combination of the 1st and 3rd world is nonsense. In terms of economic inequality and poor health in younger age groups the evidence is overwhelming. I challenge you to cite evidence refuting the economic inequality and younger age diabetes and obesity. I myself will post a few links for you later. NeilB
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