I'd say that thanks to this preprint we're now a lot closer to solving
the mystery of the Sintashta people. Over at
bioRxiv at this
LINK. From the preprint:
Transition from the Stone to the Bronze Age in Central and Western Europe was a period of major population movements originating from the Ponto-Caspian Steppe. Here, we report new genome-wide sequence data from 28 individuals from the territory north of this source area - from the under-studied Western part of present-day Russia, including Stone Age hunter-gatherers (10,800-4,250 cal BC) and Bronze Age farmers from the Corded Ware complex called Fatyanovo Culture (2,900-2,050 cal BC). We show that Eastern hunter-gatherer ancestry was present in Northwestern Russia already from around 10,000 BC. Furthermore, we see a clear change in ancestry with the arrival of farming - the Fatyanovo Culture individuals were genetically similar to other Corded Ware cultures, carrying a mixture of Steppe and European early farmer ancestry and thus likely originating from a fast migration towards the northeast from somewhere in the vicinity of modern-day Ukraine, which is the closest area where these ancestries coexisted from around 3,000 BC.
...
Interestingly, in all individuals for which the chrY hg could be determined with more depth (n=6), it was R1a2-Z93 (Table 1, Supplementary Data 2), a lineage now spread in Central and South Asia, rather than the R1a1-Z283 lineage that is common in Europe [38,39].
Saag et al.,
Genetic ancestry changes in Stone to Bronze Age transition in the East European plain,
BioRxiv, Posted July 03, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.02.184507
See also...
Like three peas in a pod
316 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 316 of 316@carlos
Narsimhan dates it using alder, and it seems misdated because there's no steppe in bmac till 1600bce, till you get one outlier in bmac which looks like swat_ia with a little steppe, because bmac lies on the steppe to swat route. Unless some other route was taken.
2. There indeed is steppe ancestry in swat_ia, but theres hardly any R1a, none of the L657 kind and the ancestry in swat is mediated largely through steppe women. It's this fact which gives people heartburns.
@Archi
Thanks for the reference, so the hymn is in 8th mandala, in the middle period of RV composition.
@vAsiSTha
"Narsimhan dates it using alder, and it seems misdated because there's no steppe in bmac till 1600bce"
But Narasimhan et al suggest there was not intense mixing between Steppe and BMAC people, this could be due to a faster and further movement towards Swat valley, and the lack of ruins in the region before 1400 BCE is maybe due to ephemeral camp sites which dissapeared soon. And we should remember that the movement to Swat was alternatively through Inner Asian Mountain Corridor, not crossing BMAC.
@Davidski, where would Poltavka and Sintashta fit in now we have these Fatyanovp samples?
@Aniasi
On first inspection, there seems to have been something of an R1b "genocide" across Eastern Europe at the hands of these eastern Corded Ware/Fatyanovo people, and yeah, Sintashta fits into this mould.
The Fatyanovo and main Sinatshta cluster people are basically identical.
R1b was "wiped out" in the East Baltic, the forest and forest steppe (the relevant samples are on the way), and then also finally on the steppe.
But it was probably a lot more complex than an actual genocide, with population movements and founder effects more important than mass murder.
@Davidski,
Yes, that is interesting insight. I haven't noticed that yet.
Latvia HGs: Rich in R1b1a1a, I2a2a1b.
Volsoovo: Rich in R1b1a1a2
Yamnaya: Rich in R1b1a1a1a2a2
All of that "replaced" by R1a M417 by Corded Ware then Srubnaya.
@Samuel
Central Asia as well! Botai got its ass whooped there.
But at least R1b found refuge in Western Europe and parts of the Near East.
I'll definitely do a blog post about this after the R1b samples from the forest come out. I'll try not to make it too sensationalistic. Haha.
R1b1a was originally the main ANE lineage in Europe. R1a was restricted to Russia and Ukraine.
Yeah, but R1b Bell Beaker also pushed R1a M417 (and R1b L51*) out of much of Central Europe. The recent Poland paper with Corded Ware, Bell beaker ancient DNA demonstrates this. But, I don't think R1b p312's presence in Poland, Hungary survived after Beaker period.
Then what is interesting is, 300 years later, Czech Unetice is R1b P312 and Slovak Unetice is R1a Z280. So, Unetice is a mix between Corded Ware and Bell Beaker?
Davidski's hidden R1a supremacist purpose for this blog finally surface.
R1b has North & South America btw. So we're doing just fine.
@Samuel
Yeah, but R1b Bell Beaker also pushed R1a M417 (and R1b L51*) out of much of Central Europe.
Not really.
There was already a lot of R1b in Central Europe during the CWC period, it just hasn't been sampled very well.
Look at the Polish CWC results. Most are now R1b.
Hi everyone,
I am learning about archaeo-genetics. I would be very grateful if anyone of you can my question: What tool do you use to find ancestry proportions in a single genetic specimen? The qpAdm tool gives admixtures information about a population. But how should I find the ancestry by percentage in a single individual? Is there any tool for this? Or does qpAdm give info sample by sample too?
@ Sam
~ 1/3 of Unetice is alpine varieties of I2b, I2a1, I2c. Relatively rare nowadays; but still present in modern Germany
Perhaps I2c is relevant for Armenians although I’m not 100% sure
@pricinfix
Yes, qpAdm can be used to analyze multiple or singleton samples, and a mix of the two in any given analysis.
You can also use this...
https://vahaduo.github.io/vahaduo/
The latest datasheets are here...
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2019/07/getting-most-out-of-global25_12.html
@Davidski,
One CWC Poland site is R1a and one site is R1b. More samples were sequenced from the R1b site, but that doesn't R1b was more numerous in CWC Poland. They seem to have been two different clans living next to each other. No evidence one was more numerous than the other.
Even, archaeologists say Bell Beaker "replaced" Corded Ware in Central Europe culturally, and that ancient DNA from Poland suggests genetically as well. A lot of R1a in Germany, Poland probably moved out when Bell Beaker arrived.
Scandinavia was another place where R1b and R1a meet in Late Neolithic. And, is only place in Europe were populations have a mixture of R1b, R1a.
@Rob,
Yeah, but the majority of Czech Unetice is R1b U152. I concede the I2 can't be ignored as coincidence, as multiple have been found. I understand comes from somewhere we haven't identified yet. But, overall their paternlineage is mostly Bell Beaker.
@ Sam
It is identified / it’s mostly from Hungary.
As for percentages yeah maybe R1b is most prevalent; but more numbers would be required to obtain accurate proportions
It does seem like a pretty mixed group
Coldmoutins, as I said before, the Slavs could not rise in Belarus, because they appeared there only in the Middle Ages. Balts had lived in Belarus before.
Archi: "The Slavs are too Western to be Eastern".
Exactly! The Eastern Slavs are not actually Slavs. Most of the Eastern Slavs are Balts assimilated by the Slavs.
@Samuel
But R1a is recorded in Central Europe after the Beaker period, and it's unlikely that this is due to R1a migrants from Eastern Europe.
It must have been present in Central Europe during the Beaker period, but wasn't incorporated into the classic Beaker populations.
@Davidski
Thank you for the information. I must say: Your blog is a treasure trove of erudition. I also have a few other questions; it would help a lot if you can elucidate these doubts:
1. How do you find the contribution of a haplogroup, e.g., R1a-Z93 to ancestry? Is qpAdm capable of this? Or is any other tool utilized for this?
2. What is a better tool for genetic analysis: R or Python?
I am looking forward to your enlightening reply.
@pricinfix
For Y-haplogroups you need something like Yleaf.
https://github.com/genid/Yleaf
In regards to the second part of your question, it's not really an issue of R versus Python. It's very useful to be proficient in the use of both.
Python is for coding, while R has all sorts of uses, including as an operating program for a variety of genetic analyses packages.
Ideally, you should set up a Linux or Mac machine and install ADMIXTOOLS on it. That's a good start and it's already most of what you need.
@Davidski
Thank you, I will start doing what you have suggested. I will try to replicate the results that you have posted here.
I’m very curious about welzin
By then there was ample aeons to pass the tribalistic structure of late neolithic & groups mixed by then. That will enable us to really see what kind of mixtures existed in north Central Europe
@Davidski
Interesting that Z93 looks like the dominant marker of East CWC which aggressively expanded eastwards but totally ignored regions west of Ukraine and Romania. Or are you aware of Z93 further west? On the otherside there is R1a-Z283 in Srubnaya and likely in Fayanovo based on that ( basal R1a-Z283 unrelated to Balto-Slavic and Germanic R1a-R283). And it seems R1b-L51 was also in the forest/forest-steppes east of Ukraine.
@vAsiSTha
"Narsimhan dates it using alder, and it seems misdated because there's no steppe in bmac till 1600bce, till you get one outlier in bmac which looks like swat_ia with a little steppe, because bmac lies on the steppe to swat route. Unless some other route was taken."
BMAC is not on the steppe-Swat route. You were shown a mountain corridor, it's not a BMAC. Narasimhan showed it to you, and you still can't see it, writing the same thing. I think here the matter is that the length of steppe generations was less and the starting points were determined badly and the mixing took place back in Turan, Narasimhan himself writes about the last one.
"It's this fact which gives people heartburns."
Nobody has anything, only you get excited about it. Nothing new in the results, it is known for a long time from anthropology that in Swat were buried local population not related to the Indo-Aryans, there are anthropological types of the population traced from the Neolithic, and changes in the anthropological type of the population occurs in the range 800-600BC and it is associated with the Buddhist inhumations.
Everyone knows that the Indo-Aryans in the Swat Valley were cremated.
@Coldmountains,
The R1b L51 Davidski heard about months ago in forest Steppe hunter gatherers is probably not real. R1b M269 and R1a M417 originated in Sredny Stog. Volosovo probably carried a cousin branch to R1b M269.
Davidski said..
"Look at the Polish CWC results. Most are now R1b."
There is not a Polish CWC, but the results of a small local band in Małopolska on the very border of CWC, which is more than atypical for CWC, there is a lot from BBC-like. And by the way, interestingly enough, it doesn't go to the East. Fatyanovo is more connected with Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
It's amazing a 12,000 year old R1a EHG person in Northwest Russia in this study. This is the oldest EHG person and oldest R1a yet.
8,000 years older than Fatyanovo! That's a huge separation of time, yet still a close link in Y DNA between them.
It is a reminder, Fatyanovo was not exactly foreign to Northwest Russia even if they had just moved there from Central Europe. 43% of their ancestry was EHG (rough estimate).
10,000 BC: R1a, Northwest Russia.
12,000 BC: R1b, Italy.
If, you went back in time to 2010, and told people only this about ancient DNA, they'd think it confirms the Paloelithic origin of R1b in West Europe and R1a in East Europe.
@Samuel
How many samples so far of R1b have benn found east of the Volga before the neolithic/copper age?. To my knowledge pretty much zero.
Also we have a whole bunch of ANE going east in Siberia and even North America.
We have ANE going to the Caucasus and Iran ( forming CHG and Iran Neo)
It is strange to me that no ancient R1b popped up there.
All the ancient R1b are from the Volga to the Atlantic even tough they were predominantly R1 V 88
the westernmost R1b P 297 so far is from Kunda/ Narva and then Samara IIRC
Since R1b V 88 and R1b L 388 are brothers it is quite likely that the latter will sooner or later pop up among a yet not sampled WHG population.
For example polish swiderian folks
Maybe among WHG R1b L 388 was just a tiny clan that exploded in the forest zone from the Baltic to Moscow and then thanks to the domestication of the horse was able to expand in the steppe too
Let's see what happens
@old europe,
R1b1a1a-P297 is in Botai. But, it is probably recent introduction from Eastern Europe.
The reason R1b1a seems to restricted to Europe, is for simple reason Paleolitic North Asia carried different clades of R and Q. And the ANE wh went into Europe carried mainly R1b1a.
But, I recall there is a basal form of R1b in Central Asia today. So is for sure from indigenous ANE of Central Asia.
@Samuel Andrews
I remember the good old times when several published studies claimed Z93 to be from Iran or the Gangetic region. That was definetly amusing but nobody including me expected Z93 to be so freuqent and widespread in forest regions of East Europe. Many assumed it must be from Yamnaya and directly from the steppe. Now i am most interested in the details where exactly the different Z93>Z94 clades came from. Maybe we will find the Indo-Aryan Y3 clade in some unexpecte place like Tver or Ivanovo. We really need to wait for more data and many interesting/unexpexted details will be found soon.
@ Sam
''But, I recall there is a basal form of R1b in Central Asia today. So is for sure from indigenous ANE of Central Asia.''
You might be referring to R1b-PH155
It's not really basal as parallel to 'Western' R1b-L754.
Within R1b-PH155, M335 is distributed in Europe whilst PH200 is in Asia
This suggests a differentiation of R1b within Europe
Fascinating that PES has this basal R1a5, at very much the time (13kya, roughly) conventional trees would suggest a burst of increase in population size /descendents in this lineage (14 kya, roughly).
There is some possibility the glacial refugium of R1 was not anywhere in Siberia or Central Asia. Record of Upper Palaeolithic ANE is sparse but, AG2 at 16kya was Q1a. Denser sampling of SE Europe etc needed to work out. The split of Q-R probably happened in Central Asia or Siberia, based on MA-1 (though MA-1 extremely basal on R, almost a trifurcation with Q). God knows where higher order splits happened within K happened; probably during expansion into East Eurasia.
@ carlos said
"But Narasimhan et al suggest there was not intense mixing between Steppe and BMAC people, this could be due to a faster and further movement towards Swat valley, and the lack of ruins in the region before 1400 BCE is maybe due to ephemeral camp sites which dissapeared soon. And we should remember that the movement to Swat was alternatively through Inner Asian Mountain Corridor, not crossing BMAC."
Narssimhan is wrong here, 150%. You cannot model swat_ia without BMAC, neither in qpAdm nor with G25. So there was mixing of these people eventually for sure, or else they mixed with swat people independently of each other.
The BMAC sites are inside IAMC corridor itself, you cannot cross it without encountering BMAC, unless youre sticking closely to tarim basin on your route (that begs the question why tokharian is so different from indo iranian). look at the map with arch sites here https://imgur.com/gWz9Oiw
There are 3 samples from Dashti-Kozy (all 3 are women with steppe mtdna and mostly steppe ancestry). These 3 are dated to 1650-1400bce. Dashti-kozy is 100km from the site of Dzharkutan (bmac) inside the IAMC. (look at the map above). sample ids are I4257, I4258, I4160.
So do not listen to nutjobs like archi who say that BMAC is not inside IAMC. He almost never knows what he is talking about.
@archi says
"Everyone knows that the Indo-Aryans in the Swat Valley were cremated."
Yes archi, only a special pleading nutjob like you will claim that you cant find much R1a in swat because only R1a's were cremated as theyre indo aryans. And what about the 2 R1a's found who werent cremated? What special story do you have for them?
Theres a fable which goes like this
Q: How many crows are there in this country minister?
Minister: 465,212 sir
Q: What if i count and there are more?
Minister: then some of them are visitors from outside sir
Q: What if i count and there are less?
Minsiter: Then some crows went to visit other countries sir.
At the time level of CWC and BBC no core IE language has yet formed, there was a dialect set.
The following groups of division of IE can be presented
1. Outside CWC -> Hittit-Luwian and Tocharian
2. Pure CWC -> Satem group -> Slavic, Baltic, Thracian/Albanian, Indo-Iranian, Armenian.
3. CWC + BBC -> Centum group -> Germanic, Italic, Celtic, Lusitanic, Illiric (https://i.ibb.co/F7f16QG/Centum-IEgroups.png).
4. CWC (+BBC?)+Catacomb -> Greek, Phrigian.
@fAsiSTha
"Yes archi, only a special pleading nutjob like you will claim that you cant find much R1a in swat because only R1a's were cremated as theyre indo aryans. And what about the 2 R1a's found who werent cremated? What special story do you have for them?"
You're the nutjob one, the annoying crazy one. I have already written that this is probably a consequence of the violence during the war, most likely Aryan raped a local during the war, but it could have been without the war. Rape, especially during wars, is the norm.
And then, not all Aryans followed the Vedic religion, these were called Vratya, in the beginning they were few.
"So do not listen to nutjobs like archi who say that BMAC is not inside IAMC. He almost never knows what he is talking about."
Shut your mouth, you don't know anything at all, you don't know what you're writing, you don't know anything at all, you're always lying, you're always embarrassed. Only crazy people listen to you.
@What subclde of R1b was found in the East Baltic? I read somewhere it was pre-M73. Do we know where M73 originated and it subsequent path?
Was Botai related to M73? I believe it was WHSG like which makes sense given they found both y N and mt Z1a in it. I'm guessing they were mixing with populations from the Altai or Mongolia.
Also I know everyone is nationalistic about this but I think its kind of unfortunate all this diversity in Eastern and Central Europe was wiped out.
Also poor I2. It was wiped out by R1a and R1b and didn't even get picked up (other than small amounts) in the migrations east. Poor Q1a too. Most unsuccessful ANE lineage in terms of IE expansion.
I wonder how Q1b fits into this though.
@ Jatt
“ Also poor I2. It was wiped out by R1a and R1b and didn't even get picked up (other than small amounts) in the migrations east. Poor Q1a too. Most unsuccessful ANE lineage in terms of IE expans”
Seems to be only in Western Europe
Different story in central & southEastern Europe - odds are it is Hitto-Luwian
You should probably refer to some of the data published rather instead of your own oriental fantasies
@Matt
So Malta is not ancestral to modern R in your opinion? Do you think Tianyuan or Yana are ancestral to modern R or were those also dead ends and the action was further west in Central Asia/South Siberia?
Even Q1a played an role- probably explain some of the “Pacific” affinities in PIE some linguists pick up
@Thomas Spence
"I’m new to genetics and I got my G25 results, but I don’t know how to get an accurate model."
@Davidski
"Here's a page of G25 preset models to get you started.
Vahaduo tools for G25 custom calculators"
I'd be careful with these preset models. The labelling in Davidski's official G25 sheets is accurate and pretty much self-explaining. It usually includes: Country of origin, culture, date. However, several of the labels in the preset sheets on Vahaduo are just wrong and misleading.
Take this sheet for example:
http://g25world.genetics.ovh/Ancient_NicolaunScaled.htm
What this guy calls GermanicAlamannic is in fact the DEU_MA sample, which is Baiuvaric by tribe, not Alamannic. What this guy calls GermanicMarcomanni is the Migration Age sample from Poprad in Slovakia. It's probably Quadic rather than Marcomannic.
Or take this sheet as another negative example:
http://g25vahaduo.genetics.ovh/Nicola%20Ancient%20Unscaled.htm
The guy has a sample of Siculi in the list. But no Siculi have been published to date! In reality this must be one or several of the published Bronze Age Sicilian samples. The LBA Sicilian sample is from the extreme west of Sicily, it might be Sicanian or Elymian, but definitely not Sicel. And during the MBA there were no Siculi on Sicily.
So I would use Davidski's official G25 sheets only. No one has G25 coords that are not listed there. And it's really easy to put your own custom sheet together with copy and paste.
@Archi
"8. Finally, the Slavs are formed from the fusion of the Lusatian culture and the Pomeranian culture."
I seriously doubt this. The Romans mentioned the Germanic Rugii, Goths, Burgundians and Vandals between the Oder and the Vistula, but no Slavs or a population that could have been Slavic. (They also mentioned the Lugii in the south of that area, but it's unclear what they were.) The Rugians were in the extreme North, their name is akin to the name of Rügen. And the Goths were associated with the Wielbark culture and arrived in the area relatively late, at the turn to the common era. But what about the Burgundians and the Vandals? These were important tribes and I cannot believe they were just minorities in an otherwise predominantly Slavic environment, without anyone mentioning it. The Pomeranian culture spread from the coastal area of the north southwards, hence it could be an agent for the spread of Germanic culture and ancestral to the Burgundians and Vandals. Really crucial will be the yDNA of this culture and the following Przeworsk culture. Is it going to be Germanic-like or Slavic-like? I'll bet it's the former. Autosomal DNA won't be that informative, because even the Alamanni who had their roots in what is now Eastern Germany, were quite eastern-like autosomally. In the paper on the Alamannic genomes of Niederstotzingen their ADMIXTURE components were more similar to Balto-Slavs than to Northwestern Europeans, and in the PCA they were on the border between Northwestern and Eastern Europeans, with some individuals on the eastern side. So the Vandals and Burgundians who lived east of the Elbe Germanics must have been even more eastern autosomally. Unfortunately the Pomeranian culture and the Przeworsk culture were cremating which doesn't make things easier.
@EastPole
"Such people are often left-wing fascists or left-wing Nazis and accuse others of Nazism etc."
You've made my day. I am usually called a right-wing fascist. A nice change. I vote for PiS, so you can call me whatever you want, EastPole :)
I am a moderate follower of the autochtonic theory of the Slavic origins (Proto-Slavic used in the area of today's Malopolska and West Ukraine), Lusatian Culture as Proto-Balto-Slavic etc. And I also interpret the Germanic river-names and place-name in Silesia and Lower Vistula ("Wistla-wudu") as a trace of the Germanic and Vandalic settlement in the beginning of our Christian era.
I fully accept Davidski's interpretation of the new material. And I am always open to new conceptions. My text about the Proto-Balto-Slavic areas of today's Poland and East Germany can be found here (sorry for using the Spaniard's maps):
http://aldrajch.blogspot.com/2020/05/zeslawizowani-wenetowie-jak-pogodzic.html
My text about Germanic place-names in today's Poland can be found here:
http://aldrajch.blogspot.com/2020/06/nazwy-germanskie-na-prehistorycznym.html
(turn on Google Translate)
@Thomas Spence
An important guideline for using the G25 modelling method is: know thyself. So either you ascertain your ethnic roots by paper trail as Davidski suggested. Or otherwise a test on 23andme can reveal pretty accurate recent ancestry proportions, especially if you also upload one of your parents to enable the phasing of your genome
@ vAsiSTha
"...The BMAC sites are inside IAMC corridor itself, you cannot cross it without encountering BMAC, unless youre sticking closely to tarim basin on your route (that begs the question why tokharian is so different from indo iranian). look at the map with arch sites here https://imgur.com/gWz9Oiw..."
Maybe it´s right to say that IAMC "touches" some sites in Bactria, just like Dzarkhutan, but the bulk of sites belonging to BMAC is in Margiana and Kopet Dag region, and they are older BMAC sites. Even I doubt the term Bactria-Margiana is correct, because Bactria is a peripheral region compared to the whole civilization. Instead it should be named Kopet Dag-Margiana Archaeological Complex. And Dzarkhutan is a very small site, beginning to be inhabited later than Gonur for instance, even though Dzarkhutan harbors many burials.
@Rob
Don't want to go off topic but I am just too curious here, which sub-clade do you mean is Hitto-Luwian?
"The ancestor of Indian R1a Z93, was living in Moscow. Literally in the place where R1a carrying Slavs live today. Yet, Harvard acts like this history is as relevant to Indians as it is to Slavs (or to Europeans in general)." (Samuel Andrews)
Just in passing: Neither history not archeology knows of any Slavs living compactly in the Moscow area prior to the arrival of the first groups of Viatichi colonists in the early 11th century CE. This is almost 4,000 years after Fatyanovo… Earlier the basin of the river was occupied by Galindian Balts. Probably also "R1a" types. Was there some continuity (not necessarily massive) haplogroupwise? Waiting for genetics to say its word(s) There might well have been a tug of war between Uralics and IE's there in olden times. But Toporov has conclusively demonstrated that "Moskva" is a Baltic term.
@All,
The Poland CWC paper published this year, backs up what I've been saying about Corded Ware for one year. That it was created by multiple different Steppe clans. This explains mixture of multiple R1b L51 and R1a M417 lineages in Corded Ware.
Because, in the study, you see one area (several sites) and another area inhabited by two different clans distinguished by Y DNA.
Linderholm 2020
Corded Ware cultural complexity uncovered using genomic and isotopic analysis from south-eastern Poland
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63138-w
I'm getting more and more confident Corded Ware is a descendant of Yamnaya. Unless, someone can show me evidence of a non-Yamnaya population in PC STeppe in 3000 BC who could be an ancestor of Corded Ware.
Sredny Stog>Yamnaya>Corded Ware
Sredny Stog=Late Proto-Indo European.
Sredny Stog=R1b M269, R1a M417.
Sredny Stog, Yamnaya, and Corded Ware all will turn out to have had a mix of R1b, R1a clans.
@ Gamerz_J
My guess is I2a2a1b1- the one found in Bulgarian Barrows, Yamnaya Bulgaria, Ukraine_N, ALPc, one of the BB Hungary
@ Sam
'' The Poland CWC paper published this year, backs up what I've been saying about Corded Ware for one year. That it was created by multiple different Steppe clans. '
Yeah but there's a pattern. Its not simply a matter of BB = CWC
Simon_W said...
"The Romans mentioned the Germanic Rugii, Goths, Burgundians and Vandals between the Oder and the Vistula, But what about the Burgundians and the Vandals?"
These tribes belong to a much later time than the Lusatian culture, in time Przeworsk culture. None of them can be localized within these cultures, there is no indication in the sources of the alleged possible residence of these tribes in these cultures.
Burgundians are localized on the island of Bornholm, in any case they did not walk east of the Oder and walk after Przeworsk culture time. The Vandals did not live within these cultures, their line walk is Oder to Silesia, which is outside the territories of these cultures. There is no mention of any number of Vandals, and historians describing the Germanic lands do not mention them at all.
R1a-M458 in Switzerland in Hallstatt time shows that Slavic genetics was there at that time.
Samuel Andrews said...
"I'm getting more and more confident Corded Ware is a descendant of Yamnaya."
You have no reason to do this. There is no new data, you don't have any more knowledge about these cultures, so what you are convinced is just a matter of faith - religious feeling.
"Sredny Stog=Late Proto-Indo European."
equally
"Sredny Stog=Late Proto-American English."
Well, the fact that early Corded Ware samples are basically identical to Yamnaya suggests that they're very closely related to Yamnaya.
Dmytro, it's good that you joined the discussion. Some colleagues are still convinced that the Slavs come from somewhere in the Eastern Slavic territory. That is why I always remind you that the Slavs came to these areas only in the Middle Ages and earlier these areas were inhabited by the Balts.
Galadhorn, Wistla-wudu are not Vistula forests, but Vistula Goths.
As I wrote earlier, in fact, the south-eastern Poland, south-western Ukraine and Slovakia suit genetically the Slavic homeland. If we mix the genome from this area with the Baltic genome, we will get the Eastern Slavs; if mixed with Greek genome, we will get the Southern Slavs.
@ambron
weil how you explain Hun_Avar_Szolad_2 clustering with Belarusians and being from early medieval Hungary. By Baltic migration too or by some kind of local undetected Baltic substrate? Milograd definitely played an important role in the formation of earliest Slavs. Much of Poland was dominated by Germanics when Proto-Slavs diverged out of the Balto-Slavic continuum.
Probably until about 3500BC, it was a single population that covered the steppe and forest-steppe. The confusion with cultures in Ukraine in the period 4000-3000BC is probably an indicator of diversity. Especially interesting is the middle layer of Mikhailovka, which shows the moment of transition from the General culture to the Yamnaya proper. Very promising would be to explore the transitional culture of Northern Ukraine: Pivica, Rohachyk. But this is more or less obvious. Something else is interesting. If by the middle of the fourth Millennium it was one or two very close populations, then the Yamnaya language must be close to the proto CWC language. And there are two options. Either the Yamnaya R1b-Z2103 language is proto-Armenian and proto-Greek. If the basis of these languages is Thracian or some other language R1a-Z93, then the second option-the language Ymnaya Z2103 is a hitto-luvian language.
Coldmoutains, Av2 also groups with Mazovia. There were no Avars in Belarus. According to Ptolemy, the Avars reached for the Vistula, so this is completely normal. Most of the Masovians are Balts assimilated by the Slavs. It was a woman, and women were kidnapped and traded in those days. Avars were well known for their brutal approach to women. That is why father Av1 is more interesting, who looked genetically like today's Hungary, i.e. earlier Panonian Slavs.
@ambron
yeah...
Neverthless. Pre-Germanic groups from Poland likely contributed directly or indirectly to Proto-Slavs and maybe some Slavic y-dna clades will turn out to be more from the west (especially I2a-Din)
But Slavs in terms of autosomal dna even West Slavs are distinct from Deu_Welzin and Hungary_BA-like groups which populated much of the region before Germanics and Slavs. You need some eastern/more Steppe MLBA shifted input for Slavs. A Deu_Welzin/Hungary_BA rather correlates with Pre-germanic/Pre-Slavic substrates in Germany, Poland, Czechia and some parts of West Ukraine.
Coldmoutains, if Poland were really dominated by the Germans, then today we would have a very high frequency and diversity of Germanic Y-DNA clades in Poland. And if all these Germans actually left Poland and went to Ukraine, then today we would have a very high frequency and diversity of Germanic caldes in Ukraine. At least 1 million people lived in Poland during the Roman period.
What you really need for the Western Slavs is a slight shift from Welzin and Hungary BA towards Baltic BA. But we have such a genome in Poland in the Copper Age (N47).
@ Simon
I am also curious about East Germanic's origins. They played a major role to history and it makes me sad they didn't left any genetic impact somewhere. I think they originated like the other Germanic groups somewhere in modern Sweden-Denmark but its obvious eastern germanics moved their asses somewhere in modern Poland and come in contact with Slavs and more eastern than them genetically folks.They crossed balkans as well and there also.. assilimated native populations similar to Vlachs.The rest are well known. They conquered West Roman Empire.Most of them assilimated into the Roman societies as Elite(Italy, Iberia, France, Portugal). But the biggest mystery for me is what exactly happened to Vandals. They vanished from history after their defeated from Byzantine Army. I am wondering if many of them assilimated into the north African societies to survive.
I have already written that according to Fatyanovo's observations the closest to the Slovakian and Sub-Carpathian groups.
See https://i.ibb.co/FmqRxs9/Central-CWC-to-Fatyanovo.png
@carlos
"Maybe it´s right to say that IAMC "touches" some sites in Bactria, just like Dzarkhutan, but the bulk of sites belonging to BMAC is in Margiana and Kopet Dag region, and they are older BMAC sites."
It depends on which mountain pass was used by the steppe migrants. If khyber pass was used then it in west pakistan, and connects modern afghanistan and pakistan. bmac would be encountered on their path without fail.
But if it was the khunjerab, naltar, kilik or mintaka pass bordering china in north kashmir, then they would may be avoid any bmac contact.
all these passes are silk road passes.
@ Vasistha
By the time MLBA steppe was moving through BMAC; it had already begun fragmenting
So they need not have interacted with BMAC, because it was no longer the dominating cultural group
The BMAC is being destroyed to the 18th century BC, by 1600BC it simply no longer exists.
I think East Germanics did leave some impact. Its probably hard to tease out the origin of things like R1b-U106 and I1 in Eastern Europe since West Germanics had those clades too.
What's the current thinking on the origin of I2a-Din? Has it or its ancestro popped up in ancient DNA yet?
@ Jatt
East Germanics would Have spread Some balkanic lineages like I2a-Din, EV13 etc IMO.Not to mention that many of them Have mixed with Asian tribes(avars,Huns etc).
@rob
"By the time MLBA steppe was moving through BMAC; it had already begun fragmenting. So they need not have interacted with BMAC, because it was no longer the dominating cultural group."
The bustan and molali phase of dzharkutan culture existed post 1600bce as well. And it is without doubt that swat_ia samples have a mix of bmac & steppe. There is also a slight possibility that it is SiSBA1 like ancestry instead of bmac as both are similar.
Now i think that a mixture of bmac & steppe mixed with swat natives rather than an independent mix. However, the full picture of exactly how this transpired is not yet clear, nor is the path taken by these steppe people.
Depending on what Single Grave culture turns up. If I1 and R1a are ruled out, it could be quite simple if the remains are largely L11+ derived.
Descendants of local SGC spawned Proto-Germanic picking up local northern elements.
Southern migrants of SGC became BBC and then spread Proto-Italo-Celtic in their respective areas.
Ιωαννης θεοδωρος Γαβρας
Germanic comes from Denmark or northern Germany, not Sweden. It's understood it came from the south.
@Samuel
We never had a horse in the Indian race, so it doesn't really matter for us R1b guys. Lots of people have been overrunning the western steppes in modern day, including people from the Middle East and Inner Asia who are not R1b or R1a. It's just interesting that Z93 seems west of the Urals, which I admit I was skeptical of, but here we are.
@David - But R1a is recorded in Central Europe after the Beaker period, and it's unlikely that this is due to R1a migrants from Eastern Europe.
It must have been present in Central Europe during the Beaker period, but wasn't incorporated into the classic Beaker populations.
I'd suggest that it may have just 1 Beaker population (like literally 1 clan) that was responsible for the massive expansion in the Bronze Age, so that's not totally unexpected.
@ Wood
And Whos inhabit Sweden? Sumerians?
Ofc Germanics moved from Denmark-North Germany But this dosnt mean Sweden was an empty place.
@ Ιωαννης
I2a1 -Din has not been documented in any Germanic groups yet
@ Ambron
Nobody has ever said the Przeworsk culture migrated to Ukraine
Instead it’s shown to have moved toward the carpethian basin just after the Marcomannic wars and continued during the late imperial period.
By 400 A.D. the przw culture no longer existed, so when the Slavs arrived 600 A.D. there were no none of these people at all to add mixed with.
But there are a few lineages from later Germanic tribes such as those in orbit of Thuringia around the Oder Valley, & some Scandinavian immigrants which were travelling around Pomerania in the 500s
@ Vasistha
“ The bustan and molali phase of dzharkutan culture existed post 1600bce as well. And it is without doubt that swat_ia samples have a mix of bmac & steppe. There is also a slight possibility that it is SiSBA1 like ancestry instead of bmac as both are similar.
Now i think that a mixture of bmac & steppe mixed with swat natives rather than an independent mix. However, the full picture of exactly how this transpired is not yet clear, nor is the path taken by these steppe people.”
I’ve not looked at admixture technically recently; but my point was at this stage BMAC was no longer a centralised entity
Sociologically; this means there were less rules governing how steppe people interacted with them . So it came down to choice
Rob, speaking of Polish Germans, I meant mainly the Goths (Wielbark culture), who lived in central and eastern Poland, and later moved to Ukraine. But the alleged Germans (Przeworsk culture), who lived in central and southern Poland and later moved to the Carpathian Basin, are also a good example. As I wrote earlier, at least 1 million people lived in Poland during the Roman period. In contrast, southern and eastern Poland, as well as the Hungarian Plain and western Ukraine are areas with the lowest frequency and diversity of Germanic Y-DNA mutations in Central Europe.
There were simply few biological Germans in Poland. They only formed the elite of the local demographic base. Another thing was that this local population could have been culturally Germanic. However, this does not change the fact that these people were the biological ancestors of Poles.
@ambron
Let’s wait for aDNA from ancient cultures CWC, Unietice, Trzciniec, Lusatian, Przeworsk, etc. in Poland. I have a feeling that these people had nothing to do with Germanics and there was genetic continuity in Poland since the Bronze Age. Many geneticists say so now. So why do you and Rob repeat Nazi BS.
EastPole, that's what I'm saying that we have genetic continuity in Poland. However, I do not rule out that during the Roman period some of the later Poles could feel Germanic. Like, for example, most Polabians feel German today.
@Ιωαννης θεοδωρος Γαβρας
Do you realise that the effeminate pop singer Prince was straight while the rather masculine singer George Michael was gay? There's also the example of a Swiss Wrestler called Curdin Orlik who recently confessed to be gay. He's a rugged rock of a man. So therefore a machoid manlyness cult and male heterosexuality are two independent phenomena. While I agree that there was something effeminate about the Minoan culture, I wouldn't call it gayish.
As regards East Germanics like the Burgundians… Maybe they left some spurious genetic traces though. I currently believe that I'm descended from the Burgundians. My yDNA (from northern Switzerland) is related with a Scandinavian clade (TMRCA 2600 ybp) but its closest match so far is from a Frenchman with roots somewhere in the Southern half of France.
@ambron
The Polabian language got extinct around 1750. I'm not saying this was a good thing as every loss of language is sad. However it opened up the door to admixture with Germans, so it will be hard to find a full blooded Polabian today. Hence self-identification with Germans is understandable. I heard about the village of Klucken near modern day Slupsk where the Slavic language of the Pomeranians survived until the 1900s. Reportedly there are still 15 full-blooded Slovincians (Leba Kashubs) alive, most of them living in Hamburg. Also noteworthy in this context how the majority of the Masurians after WWI voted for remaining in Germany, even though they spoke Polish and were ethnically Slavic. I can only speculate what made them decide that way. The shared Protestant confession? The better economic situation? The long shared history with Prussia?
@Rob By 400 A.D. the przw culture no longer existed, so when the Slavs arrived 600 A.D. there were no none of these people at all to add mixed with.
But there are a few lineages from later Germanic tribes such as those in orbit of Thuringia around the Oder Valley, & some Scandinavian immigrants which were travelling around Pomerania in the 500s
All this is known information from school textbooks. But reading the ancient Chronicles describing the life of the ancient Slavs living near the Elbe, large cities, developed trade, fleet in the period 900-1200 AD as it is not very hard to believe that ACE it could have been created for 300 years from 600AD
MAGISTRI ADAM BREMENSIS
GESTA HAMMABURGENSIS ECCLESIAE PONTIFICUM
HELMOLDI PRESBYTERI BOZOVIENSIS
CHRONICA SLAVORUM
ARNOLDI ABBATIS LUBECENSIS
CHRONICA SLAVORUM
Simon, there is an old saying: like the world is a world, a German has never been a brother to a Pole.
On the other hand, genetics (aDNA, auDNA, mtDNA, Y-DNA, PCA, IBD) says the opposite: like the world is a world, German has always been a brother to a Pole.
Vladimir
Of course, Western Slavs could not arise from scratch, from a settlement void. These are just fairy tales preached by some historians and archaeologists. First of all, the medieval birth rate does not allow this. There was also no settlement void. Palinology may show some decline in human activity in some areas of the Western Slavs during the Migration Period, but in others it shows an increase. This can be explained by the change in agricultural areauas, caused by droughts, floods, soil sterilization or cultivation for own needs after the collapse of external markets.
So people were the same here (at least in their basic mass), which is also indicated by their genetics. The problem concerns another matter: since when are they here as Slavs?
@ambron
Apparently in the area from the Elbe to the Oder lived a population with a transitional dialect from German to Slavic. In the Chronicles that I have given, Adam of Bremen when describing the tribe of wagras who lived in the area of today's city of Oldenburg in Holstein, in one place writes that they are Slavs, and in another place writes that they are "our" people, i.e., the Germans.
In the Roman period, there could have been a Baltic-Slavic-Germanic language continuum. Just like in today's Slavic languages, where there are no sharp language borders, only dialects pass smoothly into each other and are mutually understandable in contact zones.
Apparently Yes. Tacitus, when writing about the wends living in this area, can not even understand who they are, "whether the Germans or Scythians", similar to both.
@ambron
“The problem concerns another matter: since when are they here as Slavs?”
Since 3000 BC IMO.
After the Fatyanovo paper it becomes clear that since Eastern CWC was proto-Indo-Iranic, Western CWC had to be proto-Slavic, in the north proto-Baltic. This is the only way with some probability, other stories are pure fantasies at the moment.
@Ιωαννης θεοδωρος Γαβρας
It wasn't. It was filled with non-Indo European speaking hunter gatherers like Pitted Ware culture. Perhaps the R1a-rich Battle Axe culture brought an extinct form of a Baltic-like language from Baltic->Sweden, but I don't believe this was Proto-Germanic. That culture completely misses Denmark which was a key staging point for Germanic languages.
EastPole, most likely language differentiation occurred in Central Europe according to the wave model. There was not much room for a language tree model. The tree model needs migration over a considerable distance and a long isolation from the home dialectal area.
Innovative centers were created within the CWC western dialectal area, and the innovations spread from the centers like a wave. Isoglosses only covered part of the area at some distance from the innovation centers, which is why dialects near center ones became incomprehensible to dialect speakers near the center of another. And so probably Germanic, Baltic and Slavic dialect groups arose.
However, in the contact zones, the dialects remained mutually understandable. Convergence zones of dialects also arose in different places if their users felt the need for mutual agreement, for example for common political, social or economic purposes. And so probably Slavic dialects have taken over half of Europe.
@ambron
It is already established fact, that Slavic languages have one source which is centered on southern Visla river basin and no matter how Slavic has branched, all of that leads to one language center from which spread has happened. Also the same thing with other words - there are no multiple Slavic language centers, from which Slavic developed. So, any idea of dialects and Slavic dialects as CWC is inconsistent with time. Just to illustrate how Slavic is of recent spread and all of that is thanks to Bible is the fact that first Bible in Germanic language was not created in Denmark or Germany, but Bulgaria. So, if Arianism prevailed other forms of Christianity, there was possibility that half of Europe were speaking Gothic and not Slavic.
@EastPole might be on right track about differences of CWC, though the problem here is that Slavs are defined as mixed people of those R1a south and R1a north and also that they expanded as a mix. R1a south were known as Scythians and R1a north were known as Aestii(or Easterners in Germanic languages), so we can't really talk about Slavs before that mix happened. Balts and Baltic remnants that are preserved in Finnic and Baltic are of northern R1a. Modern remnants of Scythians have no representation of their own and they are now part of Slavic people, however initially they were not Slavic. It is just a coincidence that nowadays these people in majority are speaking Slavic languages and anyone who can read, can find reasons to why it is so.
Linguistically Early Slavic language seems to be a product of Visla Baltic(which were represented by northern R1a) and bigger influx of southern R1a people of mainly European Scythian origin(the reasons to why Baltic were in lesser numbers might be because of Goths who used these people to create Crimean Gothic state). Germanic and Celtic also participated in formation of Slavic in its pre-Slavic stage. So, these four language groups are main components of Slavic language. Compared to Baltic and even Scythian languages Slavic is a more simplified version.
The reasons for Slavic spread is not because they were part of CWC dialect(which is absurd idea because of an inadequate time frame), but because Slavs could expand to the west after Germanic tribes were pushed by nomadic tribes into lands of Roman Empire and abandoned their original lands(just like Goths did when they moved from Visla basin to Crimea), when they moved to establish their empires and after that was reconquest of Germanic lands that they left in the form of Drag nach Osten that employed Burgh system to assimilate locals into Germanic people.
Nonslavic Rus(Rurikid knyaz 100 years ago noted that he and his ancestors were Rus, and not Slavs unlike inhabitants of Russian Empire) accepted Orthodox Christianity, that used Church Slavonic for new flock, so that is another reason why Slavic expanded.
However, none of that has anything to do with mutual agreement, as Pannonian Slavs became Magyar speakers, because their new rulers had no interest to speak in Slavic - also instead of Orthodox Christianity they accepted Catholic Christianity, who did not deviate from Latin and the same fate had Slavic tribes in modern territory of Bulgaria, after they were conquered by Turkic speaking Bulgars, who only later switched to Church Slavonic with adoption of Orthodox Christianity, so it is Church Slavonic, that is base for Bulgarian language and not languages of earliest seven Slavic tribes, that initially settled in Bulgaria or as it is also known as European Scythia.
All of this might not be pleasant to hear to most Slavic people, but history is not a fairy tale for children.
@gL
Stop trolling, you have no idea.
All the similarities between Indo-Iranian and Slavic languages and religions are ancient, they came from the CWC. So if proto-Indo-Iranian came from Eastern CWC, as Fatyanovo paper suggests, proto-Slavic originated in Western CWC. Hundreds of Slavic words that we use today, and even Slavic names like Boleslav or Miroslav, were used in Western CWC, there is no way out of it. They didn’t come from the moon or PIE, they are almost identical to those in Sanskrit.
It is not about what is pleasant or unpleasant, but about what is real or untrue. I wrote earlier that some of the later Poles could actually use Germanic languages (including Gothic). Religion can, of course, be one of the social factors I have written about, conducive to the convergence of dialects. This factor, however, should be excluded for example for Pomeranians and Polabians, because Pomerania and Polabi were bastions of paganism almost until the late Middle Ages. The Proto-Slavic language as common to the early Slavs is anachronism. Today's linguists, such as Babik, say that the Proto-Slavic language was the result of the convergence of many early Slavic dialects.
EastPole is of course right. According to linguistic research, Jarmoszko, the language of Avesta, which was most similar to the Sanskrit language, is most similar to the living Slavic languages. More than to live Indo-Iranian languages. The first texts were written in these languages in the second millennium BC, i.e. in the decline of the CWC.
@gL
"So, if Arianism prevailed other forms of Christianity, there was possibility that
half of Europe were speaking Gothic"
Thank you, that was a laugh. Your reasoning is anachronistic.
"R1a south were known as Scythians and R1a north were known as Aestii(or Easterners in Germanic languages)"
It's completely ridiculous. Stop fantasizing without knowing anything.
" Linguistically Early Slavic language seems to be a product of Baltic(which were represented by northern R1a) and bigger influx of southern R1a people of mainly European Scythian origin"
It's completely ridiculous. Stop fantasizing without knowing anything.
"European Scythian origin(the reasons to why Baltic were in lesser numbers might be because of Goths who used these people to create Crimean Gothic state). Germanic and Celtic also participated in formation of Slavic in its pre-Slavic stage. So, these four language groups are main components of Slavic language. Compared to Baltic and even Scythian languages Slavic is a more simplified version."
Stop writing unscientific nonsense and lies.
"Slavic tribes in modern territory of Bulgaria, after they were conquered by Turkic speaking Bulgars"
Don't make up a profane who doesn't know history, the Slavs weren't conquered by the Bulgars.
" All of this might not be pleasant to hear to most Slavic people, but history is not a fairy tale for children."
The problem is that you lie and invent without knowing anything about the subject and with a mess in your head out of your own fantasies.
You write on themes about which you have not the slightest idea.
Fatyanovo weren't dark. Why the f*** do so many people lack critical thinking nowadays? They had a higher frequency of blond and blue eyed phenotypes than do most modern European countries, and white Americans. Does anybody actually believe there is a European country out there with +50% blond hair?
Fatyanovo was LIGHT. Like, North West European light. Not all the burials were contemporaneous either, some are more mixed than others. This paper just tells us what we already knew, Steppe groups had modern Euro frequency pigmentation traits.
@ Vladimir
I don't understand your point. Are you saying 300 years isn't long enough to build a few towns ?
@ Ambron
Essentially you're suggesting that Slavs were present there all along, but were silent, subdued masses by Germanic overlords. They then apparently disappeared from the region c. 400 AD to reappear 200 years later.
I guess thats not impossible
Rob, it is indeed impossible for the population of the Western Slavic area to disappear in 400 AD and reappear 200 years later. At that time, the number of this population is about 5 million people. 5 million people do not disappear abruptly and do not suddenly appear again.
@ambron
You're probably not aware of this, but the ancient samples that have been taken from Wielbark sites in Poland are very different from ancient Slavs and modern Poles.
They have different Y-haplogroups, which are clearly of Scandinavian origin, and they're more Western European in terms of overall genetic structure.
So unless all of these samples are the Germanic overlords that have been mentioned in the context of this discussion, then it looks like a large scale population turnover took place in early Medieval Poland.
David, it seems to me that over the past three years, neither you nor I have seen samples from the Roman period from Poland that would show something different (but I may be wrong). If you don't mind, I will remind you of the words you wrote three years ago:
There are some results, but they're patchy and it's hard to know what to make of them. Apparently, the current thinking is something like this:
- Bronze Age Poles are very similar to modern-day Poles
- During the Iron Age there's a genetic shift, with some of the Wielbark sites producing somewhat unexpected results
- However, some Wielbark and Przeworsk samples show continuity with the Bronze Age and later Medieval samples
- Typically West Slavic R1a subclades show up in upper class samples from the Medieval Period
@ambron
Some of the new results from Iron Age and Medieval Poland have been published, but I can't be bothered looking for links. I've heard that there's a major paper coming soon with all of the details, so let's wait for that.
Maybe I will quote what the project manager, Professor Marek Figlerowicz, says about it:
"It is the young men who move on and conquer another area and organize as they want. On the other hand, the local population, which is predominantly, does not change significantly. I think that the main factor determining ethnic identity was power. People were less more the same, but when the Slavs ruled there, it was said that the state was Slavic, and like the Germans - Germanic".
@ Ambron
Neither Wielbark nor Przeworsk can be described as 'elitist' cultures. Wielbark culture even forbade weapons in burials. On the other hand, Przeworsk traditions of bent sword depositions in cremation burials seems very 'Celtic'
Both seem like village-based communities, which shifted over time from the north toward the south due to various reasons.
@ambron
“Maybe I will quote what the project manager, Professor Marek Figlerowicz, says about it:
"It is the young men who move on and conquer another area and organize as they want. On the other hand, the local population, which is predominantly, does not change significantly. I think that the main factor determining ethnic identity was power. People were less more the same, but when the Slavs ruled there, it was said that the state was Slavic, and like the Germans - Germanic".”
Figlerowicz is talking nonsense. Nothing is known of who ruled there and what language was spoken. There were some Germanic or Celtic groups but nothing proves that they were the dominant there.
Look at the Avar period in Pannonia. Slavs living there were Slavs and remained Slavs, Avars disappeared. The Great Moravian Empire was predominantly West Slavic genetically and linguistically.
Slavs practiced cremations. The Przeworsk culture burials were mostly cremations. Wielbarks were mixed. We can assume that occasional inhumations were Germanic or Celtic, and the majority of cremations were Slavic.
Wielbark and Przeworsk are completely different cultures, they are not related at all. They had very different populations, very different from each other. All they have in common is the fact that they are on the territory of modern Poland, but this is not an argument.
There were practically no Slavs in Panonia in the Avar period, only on the very borders. The main population of Panonia were the Hepids and the Walachians, who were Avar subjects.
The constituency of the avar realm changed over the 200+ years of its existence
The Avar Khaganate having reached the maximum about 600 years after that it only sharply decreased.
Hopefully when a lot of these European biobank scaled projects really get going, there can be some serious analysis of population size over time. Look at the haplotype/IBD block diversity, but also y-chromosome diversity and mtdna diversity. (Does mt in present day Slavic speaking groups suggest small population size until medieval period?)
We've got things like the (kinda old now) Coop result from 2013 - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3646727/ - that suggests large scale expansion in Central-Eastern Europe from IBD block, in POPRES, but seems like whole genome sequenced mt and y diversity in very large samples would be a good sense check on that.
@Davidski
but the ancient samples that have been taken from Wielbark sites in Poland are very different from ancient Slavs and modern Poles.
May I ask, what samples are you talking about? Some new and yet unpublished that only you here are aware of?
@ambron
Figlerowicz is just grappling with the challenge of inferring population change in an intra-North European genetic landscape.
He can obviously see from his new data that there was a large-scale Y-haplogroup shift in Poland from the Iron Age to the Medieval period, from something like mostly I1 to mostly R1a, but he doesn't know what to make of the fact that his autosomal analyses don't back this up.
However, the reason that his autosomal analyses don't back this up isn't because of what he said. That is, it's not because the Slavic settlement of Poland overwhelmingly involved single young men. It's actually because the Slavs weren't starkly different from the Wielbark people in terms of genome-wide genetic structure.
In other words, both groups were essentially Northern Europeans genetically, and very difficult to split apart in, say, standard PCA plots or ADMIXTURE analyses.
But don't worry, when the these new Polish Iron Age and Medieval samples are released, I'll run them in the Global25, and you can have a look for yourself how they behave in this plot.
https://vahaduo.github.io/g25views/#NorthEurope
That's not to say, of course, that modern Poles don't have any ancestry from the Wielbark and other pre-Slavic populations of Poland. Indeed, admixture from such pre-Slavic groups might prove to be fairly significant in at least some parts of the country.
Let's wait and see.
@Teper
What I said above.
Velbarg culture is the same as the Goths, they appeared at the mouth of the Vistula about 200 BC, then rashiris on the Vistula and by 300-400 AD reached the Dnieper and the Black sea. The previous Slavic population partly mixed with them and partly went to the West or East. So most likely it was the Goths who were single men. So you need to watch for a longer time, for example, from 1000 BC to 1000AD. Apparently the main forces of the Goths went further South, the local population that lived among them expanded, and there may have been migrations from the descendants of the previously departed population. Another problem, of course, is that burials were carried out by cremation. I wonder if there is any experience of extracting DNA from burned remains, but surely there were bones, skulls?
Dawid, Figlerowicz sees that a significant exchange of male pedigrees without affecting the autosomal profile and the rate of natural growth cannot be explained by purely biological phenomena. In the case of Poland and R1a this is the same situation as in Lithuania and N1c. Neither the effect of the founder nor the bottleneck are involved here. In the first case, a small group of people would have to come to completely depopulated Poland, while in the second - a small group of people would have to stay in Poland after the previous inhabitants left the area. In either case, such a small group would not rebuild a population of 1 million people in 500 years. That is the Polish population estimated during the reign of Mieszko.
A social factor, such as the dominance of the elite, must be added. In this case, a small group of men beget many sons with many local women, and then their sons do the same. The same as in Samon's country (Samon had 22 sons with 12 local wives). In this way, after 2-3 generations, there is a significant exchange of male pedigrees, not related to the autosomal profile and the rate of natural growth.
Maybe I would add that there is also a much simpler explanation ... In the Roman period, the crematory funeral rite dominated in Poland. Skeletal burials may therefore be unrepresentative. For example, Stolarek believes that they belonged to soldiers of the Scandinavian garrison. Therefore, R1a was not found in them, only I1. In the Middle Ages, skeletal rite appears with Christianity, and then R1a also appears.
There is a rule in science that the simplest explanation is most likely because it is consistent with the economy of thinking.
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