Most of the action on this blog in recent weeks has revolved around the Indo-European urheimat question. So it's probably not a coincidence that I just got this press release in the mail:
Linguists have long agreed that languages from English to Greek to Hindi, known as 'Indo-European languages', are part of a language family which first emerged from a common ancestor spoken thousands of years ago. Now, a new study gives us more information on when and where it was most likely used. Using data from over 150 languages, linguists at the University of California, Berkeley provide evidence that this ancestor language originated 5,500 - 6,500 years ago, on the Pontic-Caspian steppe stretching from Moldova to Russia and western Kazakhstan.
"Ancestry-constrained phylogenetic analysis supports the Indo-European steppe hypothesis", by Will Chang, Chundra Cathcart, David Hall and Andrew Garrett, will appear in the March issue of the academic journal Language. A pre-print version of the article is available on the LSA website [see HERE].
This article provides new support for the "steppe hypothesis" or "Kurgan hypothesis", which proposes that Indo-European languages first spread with cultural developments in animal husbandry around 4500 - 3500 BCE. (An alternate theory proposes that they spread much earlier, around 7500 - 6000 BCE, in Anatolia in modern-day Turkey.)
Chang et al. examined over 200 sets of words from living and historical Indo-European languages; after determining how quickly these words changed over time through statistical modeling, they concluded that the rate of change indicated that the languages which first used these words began to diverge approximately 6,500 years ago, in accordance with the steppe hypothesis.
This is one of the first quantitatively-based academic papers in support of the steppe hypothesis, and the first to use a model with "ancestry constraints" which more directly incorporate previously discovered relationships between languages. Discussion of prior studies in favor of and against the steppe hypothesis can be found in the paper.
I'm reading the paper now, and it'll probably take me a while to get my head around it. Admittedly, linguistics is not my strong point, but I might post some observations in the comments if I feel up to it.
In any case, here's one of the phylogenetic trees from the paper. It'd be interesting to see how it lines up with thousands of complete Y-chromosome sequences from these language groups, particularly from Y-haplogroup R1; I have a feeling we'd see some very nice correlations.
Chang et al., Ancestry-constrained phylogenetic analysis supports the Indo-European steppe hypothesis. Manuscript to be published in Language, (Vol. 91, No. 1) March 2015.
Massive migration from the steppe is a source for Indo-European languages in Europe (Haak et al. 2015 preprint)
Eastern Europe as a bifurcation hotspot for Y-hg R1