Saturday, March 12, 2022
Lousy intel
I don't like discussing current events and politics here, but it's impossible to ignore what is happening in Eastern Europe.
It's a tragedy and catastrophe for both Ukraine and Russia. It's also likely to have a negative impact on ancient DNA research, Indo-European studies, and thus also on this blog.
I'm seeing a lot of confusion online about why Russia invaded Ukraine, but I don't think it's very complicated.
After getting the better of the West in recent years, Russia finally overreached and made a massive tactical blunder, in large part because of lousy intel. More broadly, I also see this as the Soviet Union's dead cat bounce moment.
Russia will now have to reinvent itself, possibly as China's junior partner or even vassal state.
As for the "special military operation", Russia's initial plan was to achieve a quick, relatively bloodless victory, followed by a military parade in Kyiv. But obviously that's not going to happen.
Russia's back up plan, if we can call it that, seems to be to keep pushing into Ukraine at any cost, and hope that the Ukrainians finally tap out. But right now that looks like a long shot.
See also...
Matters of geography
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
668 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 400 of 668 Newer› Newest»Simon Stevin: I notice that you did not actually challenge a single fact that I cited.
Because they’re all public.
You yourself seem to see nothing at all wrong with this: a president of a superpower unilaterally and illegally, unknown at first to his own ambassadorial staff (using his Attorney General + his personal lawyer!) trying to steer a criminal investigation against a private individual in a foreign country, using as leverage a block on long-agreed financial arrangements between the two countries.
Of COURSE no government could agree to revive a criminal prosecution against a private individual to appease a foreign politician issuing threats to impoverish their country! Of course Putin knew this. Trump is probably not too dumb to see it also. So of course the outcome MUST BE — now move to block the funds.
Does your animosity towards one political figure comprehensively blind you to the direct link between Putin, Trump and starving Ukraine (and Nato) of funds to respond to invasion?
Did you really think it coincidental that Trump next made baseless allegations (actually proven baseless in court) next about Ukraine and the 2016 election, urging the same response, to freeze funds to Ukraine?
I despair. I actually used to think people on this forum were evidence-based thinkers.
@Rob said...
Well Im a vindija related Neanderthal and Ive never caught Covid, despite being constantly exposed to it
Iv had 0 shots for the last couple of years, I really dont know what covid is, wife has had her 3 shot; Bourla is now saying those with 3 shots are going to need a 4 shot, followed by yearly shots. I wonder what the long term outcome will be must be nice to have immunity from law suits. BTW did you see this comedian, I dont know if it is related to anything but I thought it was funny, Jesus loves her, after all her vaccines, the audience thought it was a joke at first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4OtkPvKfsU
@nuada
Just a matter of time before Ukraine is taken,
It took decades to get Russia to open up to Western companies and now that is gone and will never come back as the US hegemony starting to crack shifting the financial center of the world the to East-Beijing, Under Biden- US rising interest rates,talk of Saudis refusing Biden call and exchange oil for Yaun, London Metals commodity exchange nickel in lockdown/shutdown first time ever, and
the Chinese conducting a massive naval exercise, perhaps in preparation to reclaim Taiwan, belonging to historical China like Hong Kong.
World Bank warning about hoarding, Looks like next year is going to be really rough, perhaps Putin will not stop at Ukraine? Time to start making preparations, like perhaps, food, fuel, trading silver.
https://www.reuters.com/world/world-banks-malpass-warns-against-hoarding-food-or-gasoline-2022-03-14/?utm_source=reddit.com
@Davidski They are getting too close to the action.
Putin once said, “Once a KGB man, always a KGB man”. Even though the preparation “exercises” were very visible, he kept his cards so close to his chest that his own security council wasn’t sure there was gonna be an invasion until it began.
If field commanders in the armies of other countries are disabked, or fired for incompetence, people below them “step up”, at least temporarily; and the people under those. At all levels, they are trained and also equipped (eg with tactical information) for this contingency. The Russian way tends to be: wait for a replacement or more senior officer to be sent in. Even if they decide to revise this now, the Russians’ problem is that the invasion was on a very strict need-to-know footing. So anyone now in the field capable of stepping into a dead commander’s shoes has been left in the dark about objectives, resources and strategy. (Partial loss of encrypted communications also hasn’t helped.)
In hindsight, it’s kinda predictable!
Ukrainians have won the propaganda battle (at least in the European Union), they are brave and the crisis has strengthened the pro-Western national sentiment. Solidarity is great and they know that millions of women and children are safe in mainland Europe. They can fight for weeks and months and Russia's losses are being huge-Economically Putin is going to need China's help because the country is technically bankrupt (the problem is that the Russians owe a lot of money to China too), the oligarchs keep losing yachts, houses and properties in Western Europe, and the EU has committed to accept Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova (I guess they will have to do the same with other aspirants like Albania, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro etc)-The EU will have its own army independent of the NATO in a few years because no one trusts the Americans after Trump's mandate, so the Ukrainians don't need to join the NATO to guarantee the defense of the territory. I hope the Russians will realize their mistake and back off.
Very easy to see the freedom fighters being tagged as Nazis when Chrystia Freeland is not real connection some say? https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/chrystia-freelands-granddad-was-indeed-a-nazi-collaborator-so-much-for-russian-disinformation
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-officials-who-met-with-ukrainian-unit-linked-to-neo-nazis-feared-exposure-by-news-media-documents
ALSO: Allegations of Canadian troops training neo-Nazis and war criminals sparks military review
If Azov battalion is not neo Nazi based we should be seeing oppressed and the persecuted freedom fighters joining them. Warrior groups like Black Lives Matter who were able to burn down many places in the US to fight for social equality and reparation payments, and the persecuted Transgender warriors. On the other hand maybe there is a reason nobody wants to buy EU debt? Hard to tell?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2XNN0Yt6D8
F*** the EU: Alleged audio of US diplomat Victoria Nuland swearing
I hope this will not end up with innocent people and or those fighting for the neocons, being thrown under the bus, like Vietnam, or 2012 Benghazi attack, or Afghanistan. I don't think US would throw Poland under the bus, but if a nuclear war broke out it might only be around Ukraine close countries; before a peaceful settlement. Little consolation since it would be uninhabitable for a long time.
@Rob
Sure, but you can get ideas where to look. Note that about the ancestries of WSHG G25 basically says the same thing you said. I just pointed out that there is a significant difference in the "WHG-related" ancestry of the two WSHG samples, pointing towards an ongoing admixture in the time period.
@StP
I mostly interpreted the data you brought up to support your case and pointed out that it does really support your case. If even that basic data is unreliable, then I really do not se your case here.
And in general there is no reason to assume that East-Ceantral and East Europeans have significantly different frequency of any Neandertal allele than Western Europeans. The two populations are nearly identical in their main ancestries in a time-depth that is much younger than the introgression. And there is really no reason to assume strong differential selection of these alleles in the last few thousand years. (It could have happened, but it is an extraordinary claim that cannot be accepted merely on base of a speculation, in the absence of actual empirical evidence.)
At the other hand we have alternative explanations. Differences in vaccination rate, differences in the strength of the healthcare system, differences in the overall health and health related habits of people.
@matt
Zelensky may have said Ukraine won't be part of NATO...
What Putin has asked for, which is some humiliating writing into Ukrainian constitution that they can't make external alliances and have a military, he now will back down on and won't get.
how do you square those two statements? Zelensky backed down but he wont really back down? Why isnt he going to be a part of NATO given how humiliated Russia is?
accelerated NATO states to reinvest in militaries and so made NATO more dangerous for Russia than it ever was before
It all depends on who is seen as the threat/liability. You are claiming that Russia wanted a promise from Ukraine to never join NATO. Is that really a pressing issue for any nation besides America and Poland? Poland, understandably, still bears resentment towards Russia. I dont know what the US is doing.
discredited any people in US and EU who would have argued in his favour and haven't switched over to condemning him
Dude, this is like pundit level talk. Condemn/disavow, what does that even mean? Are you talking morality? "you are a bad person, take that". Problem solved I guess. I mean, morality arguments are only made to control the people you rule over. They don't actually control the behavior of the state.
Lets keep the focus on national interests. Russia does not like the constant US sanctions and encroachment of NATO. That looks kind of reasonable although i may be missing something. The US was very unwilling to negotiate with Russia, while Russia was threatening with war. They were asserting dominion over Ukraine, which they have. We didnt budge and Ukraine got invaded. The US then does economic war against Russia. This hurts both America and Russia but in the long greatly damages US dominance. All over what. Russia is not our great rival.
@davidski
So the Russian army is heading for a collapse.
Ill be very honest with you since this issue is personal for you. I do not like the American regime. They are hurting the American people and making the world a worse place. In fact, the American regime is partially just a vehicle for bad global powers. For that reason, I don't want Russia to fail. That does not mean I care for Putin or want to the Russian empire return. Much to the contrary, I really hate seeing Russians and Ukrainians kill each other. I want this war to end with the least amount of bloodshed and while I agree with Russia asserting its sphere of influence over Ukraine and dont think it should ever go to Poland. Nor do I think it ever would. The Russian empire is long gone. At the end of the day, Russians are Europeans and should be working with the rest of Europe. We have a lot more in common with them than the rising power of China.
It starts to increasingly look like negotiations may possibly succeed. Hold you hopes, there hasn't been any sure proceedings of peace but apparently something is in the making.
https://archive.ph/Lwtxe
One thing though. How are the Russians going to pay for the damage?
@Wee e
“What a remarkable thing to say about a dry list of facts that were ALL CITED UNDER INTERNATIONAL NEWS HEADLINES WITH VIDEO INTERVIEWS OF ALL THE PLAYERS just a few years ago. The press called it “scandal” rather than conspiracy, though…’Trump has denied all wrongdoing.[49] He confirmed that he had withheld aid from Ukraine, while offering contradicting reasons for doing so. Trump first claimed it was withheld because of corruption in Ukraine, but later said it was because other nations, including those in Europe, were not contributing enough aid to Ukraine.[50][51][52] European Union institutions provided more than twice the amount of aid to Ukraine than did the United States during 2016-17,[53][54] and Trump's budget proposal sought to cut billions of dollars from U.S. initiatives to fight corruption and encourage reform in Ukraine and elsewhere.[55]’…Does your animosity towards one political figure comprehensively blind you to the direct link between Putin, Trump and starving Ukraine (and Nato) of funds to respond to invasion?“
This is laughable. So let’s hypothetically say Trump did withhold this money in exchange for info on Hunter Biden. This aid was already approved before the July 25 phone call, and it was delivered afterwards in September, all $391 million, which included funds for advisors, anti-tank weapons, and other resources. Not even Obama was dealing them weapons. The 2019 aid package was larger than all before it. This data comes from the CIP (1), and it’s the total US security aid to Ukraine from 2013-2020: 2013 ($49.7 million), 2014 ($91 million), 2015 ($182.8 million), 2016 ($318.1 million), 2017 ($262.2 million), 2018 ($298.8 million), 2019 ($427.9 million), 2020 ($412 million). Obama total: $641.7 million, Trump total: $1.401 billion; $561.1 million in 2017-2018; $839.96 million in 2019-2020. The Trump administration approved approximately $759.3 million more in security aid than the prior administration; they gave more in two years than Obama did in four. By the end of 2019, Trump had approved over $989 million in Ukrainian security aid (2017-2019). In what way did this make a Russian invasion easier? If Trump was a weak Putin stooge, why did Putin not invade Ukraine in 2017-2020? The Trump administration financed Ukraine’s security more than any other before it. I despair, seems your TDS is keeping you from answering these questions. Perhaps you should regurgitate more Guardian and Independent headlines. Man I thought this was a place of “evidence based thinkers.”
1). https://securityassistance.org/security-sector-assistance/
@epoch
Russia doesn't have much of a bargaining position at this point.
It's using 75% of its total military might (if we can call it that nowadays) in Ukraine, and not making any progress.
In fact, its army is losing men and equipment so fast, that at this rate it'll collapse within 10 days.
So things might drag on for another week or so, because Ukraine has no incentive to agree to a peace deal on any terms but its own.
The only thing that Russia can do, and unfortunately is doing, is to strike civilian targets to put pressure on the Ukrainians.
@pnuadha, if there is a treaty, and it does have some restriction of foreign alliances, my guess is it won't be written into the Ukrainian constitution, it will have carve outs for Ukraine to continue relations with NATO and be voided by certain Russian actions. It won't be "backing down" exactly but something that acknowledges that NATO would never incorporate Ukraine anyway but allowing some face saving for Russia (if only believed by the dumb).
...
Interesting news coming out of Belarus atm btw. I wonder if Putin will add losing his puppet dictator Lukashenko to his tally of folly...
This talk blaming Democrats or how this wouldn't happen under Trump is just plain hogwash. Putin has said himself that he doesn't view Ukraine as its own country and the USSR giving up Ukraine was the biggest mistake. They view this as part of the Rus homeland and want it united with Russia.
People have a short memory as to Trump's attempted extortion of Zelenskiy to get bullshit on the Biden's in order to receive any weapons or payments. Did no one pay attention to the impeachment? Trump was a useful idiot for Putin. He still kisses his ass. You know why? Russian banks, and by extension the oligarchs are owed something to the tune of $300 million by Trump. He went to these corrupt asses for money because no one in America would touch him with all of his bad debt.
Trump was an isolationist. He coddled to despots like Putin and Un because he aspired to be like them. Shut out differing opinions, demonize them, and hold onto power anyway possible (remember January 6th?). He threatened the very existence of NATO and even threatened to pull the US out. Again, a useful idiot that did Putin's work in dividing the West and dividing America. Putin's greatest miscalculation was that the damage done in America and NATO by Trump wouldn't be reversed by the slaughter of Ukrainians. While Europeans and Americans were unfortunately able to turn a blind-eye to Russians intentionally killing civilians in Syria, he should've known slaughtering Europeans would be looked at differently. Unfortunate as this is, it is still part of the world we live in.
Unfortunately, a conflict between Russia and the West is coming. One can only hope that someone in Russia has the good sense to not follow orders and hit the launch button when it happens. Putin is a madman and anyone that suggests otherwise is clearly not living in reality.
Anyone have any thoughts on Genomelink and LivingDNA's ancestry calculators btw?
@Gaska
"None of the R1b Neolithic farmers found to date in mainland Europe are related (not even remotely) to the Yamnaya culture or to the CWC"
None of the R1b Neolithic farmers found to date are positive for R-L23 so they are not ancestors of the R-L23 subclades that made their way to western Europe along with the Steppe autosomal DNA component. I have explained this in the past.
"So AF007 (2777 BC) is not the oldest R1b-M269 in mainland europe. It never has been because it is officially
*PNL001 (2.896 BC)-Plotiště nad Labem_LX, Bohemia-HapY-R1b-U106 "
PNL001 is from Bohemia which is considered Central Europe by many. But if you want to call it western Europe then PNL001 is the oldest. Whatever makes you happy in this regard.
"You should read Furtwängler's paper on Switzerland and Patterson's paper on England-The steppe autosomal signal appears before 3,000 BC in some Western European sites linked to the I2a lineage. How can you claim that the signal is an exclusive issue of that R-L23 lineage when there is also I2a-L699 in the steppes? How can you think that absolutely all the descendants of L23 kept that signal for generations when just 100 years can be enough to erase that (or any other signal) from Autosomal DNA?"
What is this exclusive issue thing you are talking about? I have stated that there is something that is never lacking in R-L23 people. I am not saying that Steppe autosomal DNA is exclusive to anything specific. It has no bearing that there is I2a-L699 in the steppes. There is no R-L23 individuals in western Europe without Steppe autosomal DNA. I2a-L699 in the steppes does not change that. Furtwängler's paper on Switzerland does not mention the Yam signal in western Europe prior to 3,000 BC. Patterson's paper on England mentions the westward movement of people from the Steppe beginning in the third millennium BCE. Not sure where you are getting this info on Steppe autosomal DNA in western Europe prior to 3,000 BC.
By the way, did you read Davidski's response to Rich S about your statements about the paper?
I see a lot of people here being butthurt about Trump and his administration(even for 4 years).Trump was the best president that USA ever had after the ww2 duel with it.No war,economy skyrocketed,very low inflation,low unemployment,tax breaks and economic stability.The average American was doing way better when it was Trump at the office than today.And ofc...there wouldn't be any war with Trump.Now the global economy is boomed first with covid and now with this war.The majority of western economies are about to collapse sooner or later.Not to mention that most of them have a crazy dept in their head.Trump was the only one who has attempted badly to bring back the western capital and production back in the States and in the west in general.Now China and other asian countries have become very powerful and this will be the downfall of the west.
Chad
-didn’t the war in Syria begin because Assad dared not bow down to the demands of the western Elites ?. The Alliance then backed radical Islamists who killed Christians. Russia intervened late; after USA made the mess
Apparently Germany have sent troops to Poland !? This could start WW3
@chad, there are long roots to this crisis. One prominent claim I have heard is that the lack of response to the taking in East Ukraine and Crimea emboldened Putin. That happened before Trump was elected, and other Western leaders led no significant charge to push policy, so Trump didn't really visibly prevent anything there. Germany carried on with their Nordstrom etc. No one wanted serious pushback and isolation of Russia. We can't rewrite history so Trump is a point at which Putin became emboldened - the reality is that attempts to cool off and integrate Russia while reducing NATO's military strength for years before that all led up to this, not Trump's fumbling attempts in that regard alone.
The West wanted - and I think at heart still wants - Russia to stay in its little box without us caring about its system, so we can get on with our own problems and worrying about China. The Russians are deluded that we see it as a very important country whose system we want to change, but our politicians mostly just see it as a backwater whose system they don't really care about as long as it keeps on producing raw materials to feed global markets and doesn't invade anyone. Fundamentally, as our idiot former education secretary put it about Russia, they wanted the Russian problem to "go away and shut up". Putin broke that balance, and they can't turn a blind eye any more.
Dospaises said-“None of the R1b Neolithic farmers found to date are positive for R-L23 so they are not ancestors of the R-L23 subclades that made their way to western Europe along with the Steppe autosomal DNA component. I have explained this in the past”
And I have explained in the past that for me, this argument is naïve and wrong and has become the last resort of the supporters of the current steppe theory. I have also explained that all (absolutely all) L23 found in Europe (from 5,500 BC to the present) have autosomal ANF signal and autosomal WHG signal. So anyone can argue that the homeland of IE is in Anatolia or in the European Gravettian culture. In my opinion, an autosomal signal can never be the demonstration of the origin of a uniparental marker or a language. I see that for you, autosomal DNA is proof enough, good for you, but sooner or later you will realize that you are wrong. Whatever makes you happy in this regard. Seven years ago everyone was denying the possibility of R1b in WHGs and EEFs, and now we have dozens of cases of this lineage all over Europe. Ask Haak or Mathieson for their arguments to defend that R1b has its origin in Eastern Europe and its links to IE, I'm sure they are sorry for writing what they wrote at the time.
Dospaises said-“PNL001 is from Bohemia which is considered Central Europe by many”
Yeah, and Bohemia is central Europe, so the actual origin of R1b-L151 is in the heart of Europe, not in the West and not in the East. Those samples have a Narva signal incompatible with the steppes so in my opinion L51>L151 has origin in northern Europe. Time will tell who is right
Dospaises said-“Furtwängler's paper on Switzerland does not mention the Yam signal in western Europe prior to 3,000 BC” “Not sure where you are getting this info on Steppe autosomal DNA in western Europe prior to 3,000 BC”
I don't think you have read the paper carefully, I will give you five examples (there are many more).
*I0405-Mina3 (3.750 AC)-Iberia-HapY-I2a1a/1-WHG (0.192) AF (0.662) Yamnaya (0.147)
*I0406-Mina4 (3.750 AC)-Iberia-HapY-I2a2a/1b2-WHG (0.221) AF (0.665) Yamnaya (0.114)
*I0519 (3.230 AC)-Banbury Lane-HapY-I-WHG (0.253) AF (0.584) Yamnaya (0.163)
*I0520 (3.230 AC)-Banbury Lane-HapY-I-WHG (0.2379) AF (0.516) Yamnaya (0.247)
*I2629 (2.980 AC)-Isbister, Orkney-HapY-I2-WHG (0.177) AF (0.355) Yamnaya (0.468)
To show you that
1- The steppe signal is not exclusive to any lineage, neither male nor female.
2-The steppe sign or something similar reached Western Europe during the Neolithic (at least 3750 BC) long before the Yamnaya culture and the CWC existed.
Dospaises said-“By the way, did you read Davidski's response to Rich S about your statements about the paper?”
Yes,
Rob, most people in Europe know that American foreign policy creates more conflicts than it solves. Trump wanted to liquidate NATO with the support of the British so the bureaucrats in Brussels have already been convinced that we need a European army that is capable of protecting the Eastern countries from Russian bullying. But in reality, Russians do not represent an economic, military, social or political threat to us - If you go to Russia you will notice the increasing westernization of the country and that people will not allow Putin to take their country back to the cold war era (hunger, shortages, lack of freedom) - Russian tourists in Spain (>2 mill /year) spend large amounts of money and are always friendly. I don't think they are very proud of the war crimes being committed.
Chad is right, the reaction of the EU and European citizens with the Ukrainians has been very different from what we had with the Syrian refugees-God help us.
@Wee e
Furthermore I’ll reiterate these questions again for you, since you ignored them, and peddled along some Russian collusion nonsense. If this was a pro-Russia Trump conspiracy, why didn’t Putin invade Ukraine in 2017-2020, why did he wait for an anti-Russian administration to enter into the fold two years later? Why did Trump bomb al-Assad’s forces, who’s a Russian ally? These strikes may have killed as many as 100 Russian mercenaries and PMCs (https://nypost.com/2018/02/13/us-reportedly-killed-as-many-as-100-russian-fighters-in-syria-attack/). Why did Trump bomb the Iranian forces allied with Russia? Why did Trump keep in place the Magnitsky Act which targeted high-ranking Russians with sanctions? Why did his administration reject an independent Crimea, employ the Salisbury restrictions, and approve lethal/anti-tank weapon shipments to Ukraine in Dec 2017? Not even Obama approved weapon shipments. Why did his administration approve various restrictions against pro-Russian individuals in Ukraine (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm629). His administration sanctioned the Evrofinance Mosnarbank, a Moscow-based bank jointly owned by Russian and Venezuelan state-owned companies. The Trump administration provided $10 million to Ukraine’s navy in Dec 2018, after Russian attacks near the Kerch Strait. Brookings even made a list of Trump’s actions against Russia, which you can view here: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/amp/
Why did Trump approve a total of $1.401 billion in Ukrainian security aid from 2017-2020? To put this in perspective, from 2000-2016, the US spent $1.246 billion on Ukraine’s security. The Trump administration spent more on Ukrainian security in four years than the two prior administrations did in 16 years. Source: https://securityassistance.org/security-sector-assistance/
Once again: your paranoid guff about “peddling Russian collusion nonsense” is absurd because IT ALL HAPPENED IN PUBLIC.
Not only that, ALL OF IT WAS PRESENTED BY &/OR FREELY ACKNOWLEDGED BY TRUMP & CO,
Not only that, MOSTLY IN PRESENTATIONAL SPEECHES AND ADDRESSES.
Not only that, MOST OF IT IS STILL ON VIDEOS AVAILABLE AT THE CLICK OF A FINGER.
Available to most of the planet, anyway. I think youtube is not yet blocked in Russia, you could start there.
Because you are unable to address fundamental, obvious reality, even when invited to notice it in big letters, nothing else you have to say is worth responding to.
@ stevin
Trump failed to get his way after a very, very public legislative struggle.
Read that again: very public. International-headline news public.
It is absolutely incredible that you present his public failure as evidence that he didn’t try.
This is diagnostic of your determination to deny obvious, overwhelming and copious first-hand evidence that you yourself can view (not for much longer, if you live in Russia). It is futile to try to debate with someone who incorporates every refutation into further denial. It is futile to engage further with someone debating in bad faith.
@Rob, though Assad is no friend to Christians in Syria (at best their least-worst enemy):
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190930-assad-regime-persecutes-syrian-christians-says-human-rights-group/ - "The Syrian regime of President Bashar Al-Assad has been destroying Christian churches and places of worship throughout the conflict in the country, a human rights group has reported. The community is often used as bait for targeting opposition groups, alleges the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), which has documented human rights violations by the regime and others since 2011.
The SNHR released a report earlier this month revealing the extent of attacks on Christian places of worship. It identified at least 124 such attacks, 60 per cent of which were conducted by regime forces.
Spokesman Wael Aleji told the Washington Examiner that due to Assad's knowledge that Western nations monitor and are concerned about the situation of Middle Eastern Christians, his forces do not target churches directly. Instead, it ensures that opposition fighters are placed in the buildings to justify the attacks. In other cases in which minority Christian groups have claimed that Assad manipulates and threatens them, he allows members of extremist groups to occupy the churches before launching an operation to liberate them and present himself "as the protector of Christians"."
Assad will stamp out any basis in society that could provide a threat to his power. Russia cares only about Syria for their warm water port.
It is a messy region though; there is no secular, nationalist, democratic resistance to the urban based dictatorial tendencies anywhere, and the popular uprising movements all have a character of wanting a larger role for the Islamic faith in the government than anyone in the West (or modernized East) would accept. The idea of the Neo-cons that they would just call Islamist "Islamofascist" and then somehow this would make secular, nationalist, democratic movements appear out of nowhere is a complete fallacy, and the US gave up on it (if their smarter people ever believed it!) over a decade ago. (Organized Christianity is not wanted by dictators as they are an alternative power base and threaten dictators in the eyes of the people, and is not wanted by popular rebels because they are Islamist. There's not much option for them)
The only real option for the US to remove themselves is probably to back Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia as the powers in the region, isolate Iran, and allow the powers to divide things between themselves, and then hope that secularization and modernization via the internet will play out. There is some evidence of this in Iran - https://phys.org/news/2020-09-iran-secular-shift-survey-reveals.html . There is also falling religiosity in Turkey over time - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jssr.12785.
The Saudis and Israelis seem to be warming up - https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220303-saudi-crown-prince-says-israel-potential-ally - "Saudi Crown prince says Israel 'potential ally'". This follows on from the Trump deal between Israel and UAE that aimed to remove the US from the region without strengthening the hand of Russia or Iran - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/us/politics/trump-israel-united-arab-emirates-uae.html . So this could provide a more stable and realist platform to scale back involvement of the US.
@ Gaska
I noticed even in the early-mid 1990s that the people of the former Soviets, even though many of them suffered a terrible economic shock, were already engaging in absolutely ferocious, red-in-tooth-and-claw capitalism. I saw a TV show aimed at an audience aged about 4-8, where the presenters were awarding candy bars as prizes (or just giving them away) constantly holding up Snickers and Dime bars and the like and telling the kids at home how wonderful these were. At the time they were expensive in terms of what parents had to spend on family meals.
The Soviet era’s shortages honed the capitalist urge, I think. In Romania as a teenager in the 1970s, I began to dread getting into lifts as the elevator lady (or anyone that had a few minutes alone with a foreigner) would start fingering your clothes, praising the fabric quality, trying to buy them. Jeans especially.
Russians are distinctively Russian, but they also love their iphones and instagram and tiktok as much as Americans do, love debating as much as the British do, love fashion as much as Italians do; they love romance as much as the French do, they enjoy nude seaside bathing as much as Germans do, and drink more alcohol than anyone on the planet except maybe Finns. And some of them do business like Sicilians, quite scarily. Urban Russians, at least, are more “western” than most westerners.
You could say that the stupendous ostentation of Russian oligarchs, and their influence in buying political policies like financial deregulation, has actually pulled the west further “west”.
@ Gaska
''If you go to Russia you will notice the increasing westernization of the country''
People like the western ideals of liberalism and capitalism. Even a bit of decadence is okay.
But that's not the West anymore. We are now in an autocractic Techno-Feudalism for whom the Govt & Media work devoutly
I want the old West to comback
''I don't think they are very proud of the war crimes being committed.''
The Russians claim that the campaign is taking long time because they have instigated an ambitiously strict code of minimal civilian casualties and there have been false-flag attacks. E.g, the recent mariupol incident. But yes, Im sure its painful for citizen Russians seeing war with their brothers & sisters.
There are many links between populist movements and Russia following attempts for Russia to infiltrate and use them.
For instance, consider Alex Salmond's strong links with Russia, and the promotion of policies like trying to end Britain's nuclear deterrant (Trident). Salmond took the SNP from being a marginal force in Scottish politics to a strong one. Consider also the pro-independence interference by Russia in the 2014 Scottish Indyref (https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/world-news/how-russian-spies-helped-alex-26322719).
This does not make any of these movements illegitimate but invites questions.
*References:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/30/alex-salmond-vladimir-putin-remarks - 2014 - "Alex Salmond has resisted calls for an apology after saying Russian president Vladimir Putin's patriotism was "entirely reasonable"."
https://news.sky.com/story/alex-salmond-refuses-to-say-whether-russia-was-to-blame-for-salisbury-poisonings-12268322 - 2021 - "Alex Salmond refuses to say whether Russia was to blame for Salisbury poisonings"
https://www.businessinsider.com/scottish-independence-and-russian-submarine-invasion-2014-8?r=US&IR=T - 2014 - "Put simply, the Russians sail their submarines into Scottish waters on a regular basis. Russian vessels approach Scottish waters about once or twice a year, close enough to require the Royal Navy to perform counter-maneuvers. And Russia has a recent history of military adventurism, in the Ukraine. Although there is absolutely no reason for Russia to invade Scotland, the departure of Trident from Northern waters could — in theory — let the Russians do whatever they like up there."
@Wee e
That’s a nice way of saying you have no argument. Thanks for conceding. I’ll ask again because apparently reading comprehension isn’t your thing, though I don’t speak NPC, WEF/Davos, Guardian, or TDS, so this may become lost in translation. By the way you don’t know what debating in “bad faith” even is. You didn’t offer any refutations. Speaking of reiterating refutations.
1) How did Trump weaken Ukraine? He didn’t cut aid or funding. Trump approved a total of $1.401 billion in Ukrainian security aid from 2017-2020. From 2000-2016, the US spent $1.246 billion on Ukraine’s security. The Trump administration spent more on Ukrainian security in four years than the two prior administrations did in 16 years. Here’s a four year comparison between Obama and Trump for 2013-2020: 2013 ($49.7 million), 2014 ($91 million), 2015 ($182.8 million), 2016 ($318.1 million), 2017 ($262.2 million), 2018 ($298.8 million), 2019 ($427.9 million), 2020 ($412 million). Obama total: $641.7 million, Trump total: $1.401 billion; $561.1 million in 2017-2018; $839.96 million in 2019-2020. That’s $759.3 million more in Trump’s four years versus Obama’s four. Source: https://securityassistance.org/security-sector-assistance/.
2) For the sake of argument, let’s say Trump did withhold this Ukrainian aid money in exchange for info on Hunter Biden. This aid was already approved before the July 25, 2019, phone call with Zelenskyy, and it was delivered afterwards in September, all $391 million, which included funds for advisors, anti-tank weapons, and other resources. How does this prove Trump was aiding Putin? This was supposedly about a political rival (Joe Biden), not aiding Russia or Putin. Why did Trump approve $561.1 million in Ukrainian security aid in 2017-2018, if this was about aiding Putin? Why did he grant an additional $412 million to Ukraine in 2020?
3) The following further disproves this Russian asset narrative of yours. If Trump was a stooge for Putin and Russia, why didn’t Putin invade Ukraine in 2017-2020 (Trump’s presidency), why did he wait for an anti-Russian administration to assume office (Biden) two years later? Why did Trump bomb al-Assad’s forces, a Russian ally? These strikes may have killed as many as 100 Russian mercenaries and PMCs (https://nypost.com/2018/02/13/us-reportedly-killed-as-many-as-100-russian-fighters-in-syria-attack/). Why did Trump airstrike Iranian forces allied with Russia in 2020? Why did Trump keep in place the Magnitsky Act which targeted high-ranking Russians with sanctions? Why did his administration reject an independent Crimea, employ the Salisbury restrictions, and approve lethal/anti-tank weapon shipments to Ukraine in Dec 2017? Not even Obama approved weapon shipments. Why did his administration approve various restrictions against pro-Russian individuals in Ukraine (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm629). His administration sanctioned the Evrofinance Mosnarbank, a Moscow-based bank jointly owned by Russian and Venezuelan state-owned companies. The Trump administration provided $10 million to Ukraine’s navy in Dec 2018, after Russian attacks near the Kerch Strait. Brookings made a list of Trump’s actions against Russia: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/amp/. All of the aforementioned discredit your narrative of Trump weakening Ukraine for Russia, and Trump colluding with Russia.
I'm very impressed with the Ukrainian artillery.
In many cases that have been reported online, it seems to be about as accurate as guided munitions.
No one's yet figured out how they achieve this, and we may only find out years after the war is over.
Maybe they're using drones or satellites?
@Davidski
Drones and satellites are a given, but they also probably have artillery observers everywhere, it's their backyard after all. Eyes everywhere. I'm also quite certain that, along with weapons, they're being fed sophisticated western targetting intel. What we're seeing right now is a combination of NATO targetting capabilites with Ukie strike complexes. And I agree, it's rather impressive. This development of NATO reconnaissance strike complexes into a combination of NATO data and post-Soviet tech is a very interesting development, no doubt closely watched by defence specialists everywhere.
Also, another thing to keep in mind that a lot of so-called artillery strikes are in fact something else, way more precise. If you see number of direct hits in close succession with near 100% accuracy, there's a good chance it isn't artillery.
@Matt. Salmond’s policy for ending Trident was in fact very late in catching up with the political consensus and Scottish public opinion: it was actually once the policy of all parties in Scotland except except Conservative (which is almost a fringe party here.)
The reason is very simple: the Trident nuclear bases are within spitting distance of half of Scotland’s population.
I’m no Salmond fan. Sometimes a thing is just what it is.
@simin stevin
“That’s a nice way of saying you have no argument. Thanks for conceding“
Ventriloquism. This is what I meant by bad-faith debate. Childish too.
@Wee E, it is often the case that the people don't want war or weapons. In the US for instance, I doubt that less tension with Russia has been an unpopular position over the last ten years. But there are still serious questions about parties might lean into this, and whether it's as simple as electoral incentives.
@Rob-
The old west just as the Spanish Empire will never return-Western Europe has been suffering a demographic collapse for decades and I hope that the eastern countries, despite belonging to the EU, will be able to resist our western diseases-They have to be smart, take advantage of what is best in the West and disregard what they consider to be detrimental to their interests.In this respect Poland and Hungary are doing well, although I don't think Brussels will allow their governments to stay in power for long.
@Wee e
The last time I was in St.Petersburg, I realized that the Russians have a lot more in common with us than they think.They just need to forget about megalomaniac dictators and put more interest in the prosperity of their people. The Russian people do not deserve to be hated by the whole (western) world, but they have to show that they do not agree with Mr Putin and his band of lunatics. When someone has tried the western way of life, it is impossible for them to go back
Regarding the effectiveness of Ukrainians, I have a friend named Kyrilo (I do not know if it is spelled correctly) who has been living in Denia (Mediterranean beach) for 20 years. Now he has returned to Ukraine to fight and I have spoken with him twice. He is in Kyiv and he told me that every day they seize armored vehicles, trucks and weapons abandoned by the Russians. They are resisting and counterattacking in many places because the anti-tank weapons are very good and they are prepared to use them. He told me that what is happening in Mariupol and other cities is a massacre of civilians. I pray that my friend survives, he has left a prosperous business and his family to defend his homeland. Even if Putin won this war, the Russians have lost the Ukrainians forever.
Also@Wee E, dated 2019 - https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/a-look-at-where-the-parties-stand-on-trident/
This summarises the positions as: Lib Dems: "The party has missed the boat (no pun intended) on Trident replacement, supporting the nuclear deterrent", UK Labour Party: "has clearly wholly embraced the UK’s nuclear weaponry and its manifest states quite simply “Labour supports the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent”", The Scottish National Party: "Then there’s the SNP. The party’s position is quite clear; removal of Trident from the Clyde as soon as practical", Conservatives: "their rather sparse election manifesto supports the maintenance of the Trident nuclear deterrent".
That doesn't sound like the SNP taking the one electoral position that all parties have taken... Maybe these parties have reversed themselves on this position recently or before that, but it doesn't sound like its a position that's forced by any other stance being electoral suicide in Scotland. It seems like a choice here by the SNP under Salmond and then Sturgeon.
This is a tangent anyway of course.
@ Matt
Yes, if you read more carefully, i spoke of the other parties in the past tense. Labour was once the chief anti-nuclear voice across the whole UK. In broad terms you made a valid point — but on Scotland specifically you were wrong.
The leaders of Labour, Liberal (as was) and SNP in Scotland were once united on an antinuclear policy or at worst did did not “whip” their MPs on it. As in many other policy areas, only party one did not change its stance. Salmond was left standing alone.
Please don’t try to explain the last 50 years of my own country to me. I am telling you what I originally told you — not what London policymakers have changed in recent years but what the consensus is *among the Scottish population.* Which these days elects very few MPs from other parties to Westminster.
Our largest conurbation sits next door to the Trident base (which would be considered a suburb, in most countries) and our capital city is only about 40 miles away. No-one in Scotland has the slightest influence on nuclear or any other defence policy. Nil. Whatever party we elect. Defence policy (insofar as there is ine distinct from US policy) is always and only made in London, whatever government happens to be in power.
As far as people in London or Washington are concerned it is “remote”. The UK government put the nuclear subs here precisely because a strike here (and accidents here) are in their minds at “the other end” of the UK from important population, infrastructural and cultural centres. If an enemy wished to make some sort of limited-strike “example” we would be first choice. We are disposable.
@ Matt. Your own quote carries the very clear inference that Labour has indeed *changed its mind.* (The Lib Dems are a new, more conservative amalgamation of Liberal and Social Democrats).
I am trying to give you the long view concerning the parties. To let you know that Salmond was not some sort of lone voice but was for many years very squarely in the Scottish mainstream with the other parties on this issue. It was they who changed.
The population consensus in Scotland has if anything during that time become more of a consensus — in the direction of opposition to the Trident base.
@ Davidski “its army is losing men and equipment so fast, that at this rate it'll collapse within 10 days.”
That’s a pretty stunning notion. But can it continue at this rate? Surely at some point Putin is going to order up flocks of drones from China?
@Wee E, that the other policies have shifted in stance indicates that there is no overwhelming pressure from the electorate to which parties must yield. (A comparison to Labour during its militant years is not exactly going to make a favourable case, either). I would think the case on the SNP seems as good as for any populist-nationalist party, to an unbiased mind.
If you will refrain from trying to explain to Englishmen the politics of England for the last however many years, or to Americans (as in this thread it seems) the politics of America for perhaps the last 10 or however many, perhaps I will oblige you to do the same.
If it's the dead cat bounce of anything, it's a 100-years-delayed echo of the pre-1917 Tsarist Empire.
Putin is a neoconservative (Russian populist variant), not a communist. It's a mistake to attribute this war to what the Germans call "Ostalgia". Putin yearns for the days of Tsarist absolutism (not for his days pushing a pen in the KGB branch office in Dresden). His political role models are Tsars, especially Peter the Great and Alexander III. His intellectual inspiration is, above all others, the ultraconservative/protofascist Ivan Ilyin (a prominent "White" who went into exile rather than live under the "Reds"). Ilyin regarded ideas like independence for "Malorossiya" (Ukraine; literally "Little Russia" and Belarus as treasonous; Putin has said that Lenin is ultimately to blame for the present crisis, because he created the separate Ukrainian SSR (basis of the present Ukrainian state). Worse still, according to Putin, Lenin included in that state the region that the Tsars called Novorossiya – the south-west Steppe region stretching from the Dniester to the Donbas (which was settled by both Ukrainians and Russians from the late medieval era, after the resident Tatar nomads were driven out or annihilated). The problem with this kind of ideology, perhaps needless to say, is that a lot, if not most, Russian-speaking Ukrainians, don't want any part of Russia, neocon revanchism and/or Putin personally. (With the probable exception of those in Crimea ... possibly also the eastern rump of Donbas.)
@Matt
As a last aside, I think the distinction between the “UK” owner-manager and the “Scotland” branch of some of the political parties (how they present themselves & operate in the different parliaments) might be confusing you. And well it might — it involves constant prestidigitation. But it would be too tiresomely far off topic to be tolerated, I think.
@Rob
https://www.facebook.com/halina.mastalska.5/posts/7246775982059906
(If you're sensitive, don't watch)
In view of what I see in the photos and films from Ukraine, the fate of thousands of Ukrainian children; my childhood experiences and sufferings have faded. I remember two Germanic rifles aimed between my eyes from a distance of four meters (my mother's violent physical reaction saved me).
On the next day, an explosion in a cramped kitchen room knocked the family five down. I survived, but doubly mutilated, mentally and physically, almost for my whole life, because the Krakow hospital turned out to be ineffective for these injuries; so I have distress twice as much today!
Now, looking at Ukrainian children, I am shocked by horror, because I am suffering twice, as if for them and for myself!
I curse at my heart the war and the Kremlin aventurers.
@Grant
Practically everything we're seeing now with regards to Russia is the result of the end of the Soviet Union, which was especially painful and humiliating to people like Putin.
@Wee e
Surely at some point Putin is going to order up flocks of drones from China?
So who's gonna fly them, and where will they get their cover, fuel and food?
@Chad
Trump was a useful idiot for Putin. He still kisses his ass...
He coddled to despots like Putin and Un
He is gay, got it.
Trump was an isolationist...
He threatened the very existence of NATO and even threatened to pull the US out
We need more war, got it.
Europeans and Americans were unfortunately able to turn a blind-eye to Russians intentionally killing civilians in Syria, he should've known slaughtering Europeans would be looked at differently
We are the good guys. Afganistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine is us being the good guys.
Unfortunately, a conflict between Russia and the West is coming
We are in a marvel movie.
was a useful idiot... was a useful idiot... was a useful idiot...
Interesting
@Matt: “ that the other policies have shifted in stance indicates that there is no overwhelming pressure from the electorate to which parties must yield.” Yes, I would say that is an intelligent analysis as far as Scotland goes.
The electorate there is no pressure from is — England’s electorate. Only that electorate counts now in Westminster.
The reason is these parties already lost the electorate in Scotland. They wrote it off. Their vote had already collapsed.
It is weird having to explain this, as it is just so embedded in everyday background knowledge here. It is a pragmatic thing: the Scottish electorate simply does not matter to England's major parties in elections since they accepted can only get a few MPs from it. Or sometimes none. They unite to campaign constantly against independence: they talk about it more than the parties supporting independence do. You could say they have become one big single-issue party here.
As well, the number of MPs Scotland has, has been reduced over the years from 79 to 59, so the potential gain is smaller than previously. Policy is made in England for England. I can imagine you presuming this is jaundiced, personal national chauvinism speaking; but it erupts now and then from within these parties into public spats.
Scotland was once the heart and engine of the Labour party. As late as the turn of this century they probably had five or six out of seven Scotland seats in Westminster and they controlled the Scottish government till 2008. Now they have one Westminster MP, and this individual was elected almost in spite of being Labour rather than because of it. (ie his personal merits mattered more.) They were saved by the compensatory system that awards the losers in Scottish parliament elections “list” or “regional seats” and the winners less. So they have around 20-25 seats instead of five or six.
The Libdems managed four seats in each parliament last time.
All three of the English parties have fought the last several elections (for Westminster & the Scottish parliament, Holyrood) as a combined force, to the extent of senior figures, in their twitter feeds, urging tactical voting in a given constituency for the other party; lending party activists to one another, etc. This is what allowed the Conservatives their biggest Westminster contingent from Scotland since the 1980s - about 10-15% of the total number. Were Holyrood to follow the same (absurd) first-past-the-post system we would have a parliament with over 100 government party MPs and a combined opposition of maybe 20-25.
I think it is just that Scotland’s political landscape is more different from the UK as a whole than you thought. From the 1970s, the UK overall political landscape changed massively several times overall — and also transformed the main UK parties within. Their avowed principles are unrecognisable from 40-odd years ago.
But the Scottish political landscape has been much more consistent and gradual in its trends. It's main party is a bog-standard European type of social-democrat, consistently scoring as the most “centre” party in the UK on the “political compass” axis (left/right & egalitarian/authoritarian)
Sorry, this is all way off topic. I think it must have pushed Davidski’s tolerance. Anyway, it has been interesting to talk to you.
@ Davidski
Lol, I dunno. That’s why I asked. Actually, I can think of a demographic, but they might not be very willing.
@ Matt, I have lived in all three places, and voted in two. I haven’t claimed to know more about US politics (since my time there) than is prominent in the public domain.
As for England's politics, it is as salient in Scotland as it is in England: because it is seldom distinguished as English but presented by default as “UK” news and current affairs.
But from England, (or let’s face it, in media, political and cultural reality, from London) Scotland’s political landscape is vague and its detail very obscure. Seldom reported, often metrosplained in blithe ignorance of Scotland’s context of different debate, different spectrum/parties, different constitutional arrangements, different legal framework, different parliamentary setup/processes.
@ Slumberry
I was actually replying to to your statement that 'Tyumen HG has much less of this, but IMHO it is also just recent EHG admixture, not something older. (It also present in Botai, but missing in Tarim EMBA.) ''
It might not be an EHG backdiffusion per se, but indeed something older, i.e. the original diffusion of WHG into Eastern Europe and perhaps even western Siberia
StP
Sorry to hear about your horrific ordeal
However, insofar as the present conflict goes, it’ll be a few years time that the true nature of facts slowly emerge
Because, as was the case in Yugoslavia, once the Western allies decide what suits their current geopolitical and economic goals, they will paint a black & white picture and even outright Lie in order to achieve it, ie mass mobilisation of public sentiment via media coverage and Hollywood movies
Until then I can only hope things die down and Poland / Slovenia / Czech R are genuinely mediating peace talks
@Slumbery
The Central-Eastern Europe divided by the Union by the Iron Curtain :D
http://www.tropie.tarnow.opoka.org.pl/images/central-eastern.europe.jpg
„Europa Środkowo-Wschodnia” / The Central-Eastern Europe - is our official name!
@Wee E, just as one very last comment (not to really tackle the substance of your comment on the relative political balance), just looking at the survey data: https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-britain-scrap-trident. This cites a couple YouGov panels from 2015, and if you average between the two separate panels, on the most applicable question - "What do you think Britain should do when Trident reaches the end of its useful life?" - we get, for Scotland: Replace Trident with a new nuclear missile system (as powerful or less powerful): 49%, Britain should give up nuclear weapons entirely - 42%, Don't know - 10% (against London at respectively 56%, 24%, 20%). And I'd presume the Scots who answered that way would expect it to be based at least partially in Scottish territory.
So the lead seems relatively narrow, and surely the SNP has had some influence in actually leading on this debate, and turning some of those "Don't Know" into being against nuclear weapons. I still don't see the evidence that they only followed the public here, rather than led at all. But this is becoming a tiresome tangent for you and everyone else, so I won't continue.
@ Prediction--The saying is BBB, it stands for Build Back Better. Many Nations in Europe have very high GDP/Debt ratio, and are having a hard time issuing bonds to finance political dreams of green energy and foreign immigration caused by wars, after 2 years of Covid lockdowns economies are in commodity price inflation. Look for QR code identity surveillance-in combination with food and fuel rationing and raiding public pension fund assets --just like the raiding of Russian assets. They are broke and need another diversion like Covid to control the masse who's attention is constantly being diverted.
@Rob wrote: However, insofar as the present conflict goes, it’ll be a few years time that the true nature of facts slowly emerge.
No, History will never justify the barbarism that Russia is doing in front of our eyes in the war in Ukraine!
Well, obviously it's not a mystery.
Russia started the war by invading Ukraine.
Russia can stop the war at any time by pulling its troops out of Ukraine.
Off-topic, but maybe as food for thought for another debate/post?
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.14.484330v1?rss=1
"We applied it to a large dataset of ancient and present-day human genomes from Britain, and identified seven loci with genome-wide significant evidence of selection in the past 4500 years. Almost all of them are related to increased vitamin D or calcium levels, and we conclude that lack of vitamin D and consequent low calcium was consistently the most important selective pressure in Britain since the Bronze Age."
I think that related topics were already discussed on this blog, so this might be of interest. I also find it interesting that this study goes against some previous work on the topic (although this one is localized to Britain, so that might explain that).
@Slumbery wrote:
1)There is no reason to assume that East-Ceantral and East Europeans have significantly different frequency of any Neandertal allele than Western Europeans.
2)The two populations are nearly identical in their main ancestries in a time-depth that is much younger than the introgression. No reason to assume strong differential selection of these alleles in the last few thousand years.
3)It is an extraordinary claim that cannot be accepted merely on base of a speculation, in the absence of actual empirical evidence.
4)We have alternative explanations. Differences in vaccination rate, differences in the strength of the healthcare system, differences in the overall health and health related habits of people.
….
Ad1)On the regional differences in the frequency of the Neanderthal haplotype 49.4 kb from Vindija, researchers have already commented or at least mentioned, e.g .:
Ellinghaus et al. 2020, Genomewide association study of severe COVID-19 with respiratory failure;
Zeberg & Paabo 2020, The maior genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals;
Downes et al. 2021, Identification LZTFLI /… /
The missing samples of Central and Eastern Europe in the collection of "1000 genomes" were supplemented by the Medical University of Białystok (UMB) for its needs, which was announced at an official scientific conference on January 13, 2022. Prof. prof. Moniuszko and Kwaśniewski announced that, having a sample of 1,400 patients and comparative groups at their disposal, they found that in Poland and its region 14% of residents are at risk of severe course and / or death due to COVID-19. It is planned to develop special tests by the end of June to detect and provide special medical care to people with severe/deats COVID-19.
Ad2) Nobody claims that the people of Central and Eastern Europe got the Vindija haplotype directly from the Neanderthal. We know that the first modern humans appeared in Europe on the Danube about 45,000 years ago! Here we also have the early WHG (Iron Gates). We already know that near the Carpathians by the Prut River there is a mound of the indigenous early Indo-European Z93.
The main ancestors of our populations (are you writing about R1a and R1b?) Were genetic brothers. But note that the descendants of man R1a are more than twice as few as that of man R1b! Why? We already know about the Vindija haplotype in the DNA region 3p21.31, causing an imbalance of intergenic compression (LD), that it is the source of many dangerous diseases (although, on the other hand, it serves to reduce the HIV pandemic by 27% according to Zeberg 2021). Like the current COVID-19 pandemic, some earlier pandemics could have caused a significant reduction in the Indo-European R1a population.
Ad3) I have before me many copies of the latest works of geneticists from 2020-2022 and their number is constantly growing.
They are all compiled from a genome picture in association with disease symptoms, including hospitalization, severe disease, or death. Almost all of them relate to the 3p.21.31 region and the linkage disequilibrium (LD) that exists there, caused by the 49.4 kb haplotype.
For example, see one of the review papers:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03767-x
Mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19. COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI).
Open Access Published: 08 July 2021
Ad4) The authors of at least several dozen works, seeing or not seeing the response to this exces of deaths in environmental conditions, are able to associate the symptoms of the disease with genomes in programm GWAS in works on their own initiative, as well as in the great global program (quoted here above). There are magazines for these papers- see on the Internet.
All war is barbaric, no 'geopolitical pressure', naval base or drum of oil is worth a human life, esp a child's. Even Russophile commentators disavow what has occurred. But it seems some of us have already appointed themselves as Hague Tribunal judges.
But why this happened is worth asking so that we may learn.
Russia needs to be an autocracy. It's too big and bureaucratic to be otherwise. So we cannot judge it from western standards (and in any case, the West is developing into a more sophisticated form of autocracy). It doesn't pretend to be democratic role model. But internationally, Russia had been quite 'western' in its approach.
Russian-US tensions soured in 2010, when they backed competing parties in the Syria conflict. This was during Prs. Obama's tenancy where a series of countries in the Near East were upturned, resulting in the greatest humanitarian crisis since WW2, and a massive strain on Europe.
Unfortunately, Ukraine became a theatre of rival spheres of interest soon thereafter, because of the aforementioned thawing. Putin was made a pariah, I again refer to the anti-Russian rhetoric in US politics (up until now not reciprocated in Russian circles). In a nutshell, Putin saw the writing on the wall, and probably freaked out about losing access to Black Sea
But taking a step even further back, what we're seeing is not symptomatic of Russia's decline, but that of the West. It was clear since the 80s that Communism would collapse, and it did so quite transparently. On the other hand, USA rode the post-WW2 golden age due to Europe's internal destruction and emigration to USA + on top of its already solid position. However, since the 70s, it began being competed by its own allies like Germany & Japan. A form of 'predatory capitalism' (as John Perkins called it) emerged to maximise profits regardless of social & economic effects of the host country. In developing Nations, this essentially stripped their own infrastructure which were greedily bought up by western multinational firms at next to nothing, helped by the regulations setup by the WTO & IMF. Those countries would often descend into chaos. This might entail the use of force to install economically compliant regimens, if needed. This is a growing inequality and de-culturalization which undermines our viability
Davidski's suggestion that EU provides greater prosperity is singular for Poland in EE. Greece was eviscerated after joining EU, the Dalmatian coast is owned by Germany & Austria. Slovenia lacks any ability to self-regulate its own economy. Hungary's famous winery's all closed down, etc etc. The EU is not what idealistic commentators here think, it is a post-modern construct which only serves entrenched trans-national elites who don't care about shared culture or history. It extends their market to the East, so that German agricultural produce can be sold to agricultural (!) countries in the East (for ex). And before you even join, you first have to open your markets for 12 years ..
Poland's strong position is due to its ability to selectively adopt western ideals and tough negotiations, by a tightly-knit Govt within a relatively homogeneous country. It's negotiating ability has been afforded by its vital geostrategic position: an anti-Russian stance and close alliance with the Baltics.
I'm not an economist, but I doubt joining the EU would have helped Ukraine. It's an economic pyramid scheme, but I have to admit don't know what the right answer is but arguably something close to the Scandinavian system
Russia has already lost this war. If it accepts that now and pulls out of Ukraine, it might have a chance.
But, considering Putin's increasingly incoherent televised sermons, I reckon he's about to do something exceptionally stupid, like a very costly false flag somewhere, and that will be the end of the Russian Federation.
@Rob wrote: Because, as was the case in Yugoslavia, once the Western allies decide what suits their current geopolitical and economic goals, they will paint a black & white picture and even outright Lie in order to achieve it, ie mass mobilisation of public sentiment via media coverage and Hollywood movies
I think you swapped Russia for the West. Russia now paints in black and white. What lies do you have in mind regarding Yugoslavia?
@Rob wrote: Russia needs to be an autocracy. It's too big and bureaucratic to be otherwise.
Yes, otherwise it would collapse into a number of independent states (I mean Caucasus, Ural and maybe Siberian area with many different minorities and autonomous provinces). Kazakhstan and similar countries will come out of the Russian sphere.
It is better for Russia to stop now. And I am not sure that Putin will not escalate this war into nuclear war, because the situation now looks hopeless for him (for him, not for Russia).
@naudha
We are the good guys. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine is us being the good guys.
Except Iraq, Russia role in other area is equal or more. Russia is not the good guy either.
@I think Russia has won. Why is Biden phoning everyone and trying to make deals, Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, China? What's up with that? Trying to keep everyone on the USdollar?
@Nathan.
America was the one to invade Iraq, Syria, and Libya so what are you talking about? Iraq and Libya were ruined. America directly supported the creation of ISIS. US involvement in the MENA helped to facilitate the immigration crisis of Europe. Who has been more destructive over the last 20 years? Moreover you are missing the point entirely. The American regime is not the good guy but they say they are. Its a total lie. It is wartime propaganda meant to get people like Chad support any war of their choosing.
What is even more pathetic is that the American regime is run by international and special interests. So the lies told by the American regime do not help the people. Iraq was largely orchestrated by Zionists who were primarily interested in using American blood to serve the interests of Israel. Something similar can be said for the invasion of Syria. It can be seen from Clintons' leaked emails the she was explicitly urged to invade Syria for the benefit of Israel. Trump also talked about keeping troops in Syria for the exclusive benefit of Israel which is why troops remained in the eastern part of Syria, where Israel gets its oil. Trump bluntly stated the quite part out loud. The invasion of Libya was partially motivated by a desire to destroy the Pan African Currency being planned by Libya. The whole narrative about the enemy being evil is a cover for sociopathic leaders doing whatever they want. This false narrative must be destroyed.
@ ph2ter
''What lies do you have in mind regarding Yugoslavia?''
Citing 'centuries of ethnic dicord' and the like. Such never existed before 1941-45. But the real cause of collapse is an economic issue, incl. predatory capitalism as mentioned above. Once that occurred, other tensions became irresolvable and scapegoated
The bad guys are those who kill innocent children and women, those who attack and destroy a sovereign country and also all those who in one way or another try to explain, understand, justify.... the motives of the bad guys to do what they are doing. Those bad guys are everywhere and they usually have the power because there are a lot of knuckleheads who believe the lies they are told. The good guys are the ones who are trying to help those who are suffering the consequences of war and those who are willing to risk their lives to defend their homeland. Now that the Russians seem to have decided to commit collective suicide, we have no choice but to fight them and forget about the fear of losing what we have.
Rob, the European Union has very strict political, legal and economic rules, competing in a single European market is very complicated especially for those countries coming from communist dictatorships, but nobody is obliged to enter and nobody is obliged to stay. Maybe Yugoslavia was a wonderful country, but I don't think it ceased to be so, because of westerners. It seems that you always want to blame others for not recognizing your own mistakes. Regarding the United States, I don't think they have the moral authority to reproach Putin for what he is doing.
@ulfing
Can't really focus on genetics at the moment.
But give it another week and things should be back to normal here.
@ Gaska
''It seems that you always want to blame others for not recognizing your own mistakes''
I was 7 when it began , my family came from a region which luckily did not participate in any wars, and in fact I wasn't even living there at the time. So Im not sure what mistake I might have made.
You should read better, as i've said the error only lies with the people themselves, or rather their politicians. But it's beyond doubt there were external contributors, this has been amply discussed by western scholars, politicans and ex-soldiers.
'' the European Union has very strict political, legal and economic rules, competing in a single European market is very complicated especially for those countries coming from communist dictatorships, but nobody is obliged to enter and nobody is obliged to stay.''
You have a very rose-coloured view of the EU, and I actually wish your view was reality. But it's not. Joining the EU has become almost a necessity, at least at a basic level from a 'FOMO' perspective. However, the road to joining it is difficult for nations which were not 'grandfathered in' and often disadvantageous. Even in Slovenia, which spent most of its history under some form of western Empire and profited most from Yugoslavia's industrialization (yet were the first to Bail), what I pointed to applies. These observations are clear & known to anybody who has looked into the subject.
but we agree, Putin needs to withdraw asap. This has set back Russia/ Europe/ US diplomatic relations for decades.
@gaska "The bad guys are those who kill innocent children and women"
Are you saying the men being held hostage in Ukraine and being forced to fight by Zelensky are not innocent or do you just thinks mens lives matter less.
Russia, America, and Zelensky all have a hand in creating this conflict. America contributes 800 billion to NATO's 1.2 trillion yearly budget. Russia spends about 80 - 60 billion on its entire military? Why is the US spending 10x as much on the anti Russian alliance as Russia is spending on its whole military? What kind of posture does that make? Do you think America is just benevolently spending that money? America has pushed the expansion of NATO, even to the resistance of France and Germany. France and Germany told America to tone down their excitement of Ukraines' "aspirations to join NATO". Why is America being more aggressive than France and Germany if NATO is ultimately about protecting Western/Central Europe? The US has already revoked many of the de-escalation treatises with Russia and has been sending weapons closer and closer to the Russian border. Russia gave clear warning that Ukraine should never join NATO. That request is fairly reasonable and the US had plenty of time to negotiate the issue and avoid this war. But alas, the US gets what it wants and it doesnt negotiate with dictators... So, Ukrainians and Russians are dying. Zelensky was also unwilling to give up on NATO aspirations and now he is forcing all the Ukrainian men to fight and die. Great man... Arent all the men that zelensky forcing into war innocent as well?
I think surely it is better to have trade liberalize between an EU accession state and the EU slowly, rather than a sudden "Big Bang" on opening? And likewise slow accession to standards rather than joining and getting whacked with legal action for non-compliance?
I'm no big supporter of the EU's model, but it is meant to be a unified market, with no special privileges for less developed nations other than the regional development assistance. So you couldn't have EU membership where countries reserved for themselves a form of "protection" from capital, labour attraction etc from the rich countries in the Union, and nor would there be any reason why the richer countries in the Union would owe it to them...
@pnuadha
Are you high on something?
The Ukrainian men are fighting because they want to fight. That's why they're fighting so well.
On the other hand, many, perhaps most, of the Russians don't want to fight.
I just listened to an intercepted radio conversation between Russian soldiers trying to find Ukrainian ammo so that they can shoot themselves and get shipped out to a hospital.
@pnuadha
Trying to criminalize Zelensky's regime means trying to whitewash Putin's regime and that means that you are trying to justify aggression. The massacres of civilians in Ukraine are the sole responsibility of the moron living in the Kremlin and I hope he will pay for it in an international court of justice.
Regarding the international policy of the United States I prefer not to give my opinion, I simply think it should look at the Pacific, worry about the Chinese and leave the Europeans alone. Trump showed that they prefer to have other friends, so do we.
And regarding the Ukrainians kidnapped to fight, I think you don't understand anything of what is going on. Thousands of those who had been living in Spain for years have returned to their homeland to defend it. Kidnapped? don't make me laugh.
@Matt said "I think surely it is better to have trade liberalize between an EU accession state and the EU slowly, rather than a sudden "Big Bang" on opening? And likewise slow accession to standards rather than joining and getting whacked with legal action for non-compliance?
That's why it takes so many years for the ex-communist countries to meet the accession requirements, they are simply not competitive and since they no longer have their own monetary policy, they can go bankrupt in a short time.In reality the poorer countries benefit from the common market in other ways, for example the freedom of movement of people means that in Western countries there are millions of Poles, Bulgarians and Romanians working and can send money back to their countries. In addition there are all kinds of European funds for infrastructures, modernization of companies etc... In a few years a country can change radically, Poland is an example of this.
@ apologists for President-for-life Putin
“Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine “
Let's suppose that whataboutery like this suddenly became a valid argument between people over the age of five…
Then yes, I do remember the Kremlin’s 11 year war on Afghanistan, its chemical bombing of Kurdish villages as a favour to Saddam (and its later UN vote, in agreement with the US & UK, to invade Iraq), and of course who could forget Putin’s bombing flat of Aleppo? — although I admit I can’t recall noticing Russian troops in Libya. I guess you must have meant their annexations, invasions, occupations and colonisations in Georgia, Chechnya Ukraine and Moldova.
Yes, of course I know what you thought — that a country that had an empire (and vassal states) from Finland to China, from the Arctic to the Mediterranean, and which now has now mounted an (officially!) illegal invasion of territorial conquest, is worsted by some OTHER country’s colonial rapine.
But why this compulsion to use Russian-killed Ukrainian bodies as a convenient platform to step up on and bitch from — about what some OTHER country did some OTHER time somewhere ELSE? It’s as if the suffering of Ukrainians gets “nul points” In some victim competition that you’ve entered other populations into.
Don’t you see how unbecoming it is? It really doesn’t do. There are surely forums where “Whose imperialism was more immoral?” is the stated topic.
PS, Don’t mention the word “war!”
I tell you a story about a bride. She had several suitors. One was very strong and powerful. She was very attracted to him because he would have protected her from all harm. Then there was another suitor who was wealthy and friendly. She thought that she would lead a prosperous and happy life with him, and he would treat her right. A long-standing friend was also interested in her. He did not not have connections and was not wealthy, but he was one of her kin and she knew that he was a good guy. Unfortunately, she also had a fourth suitor, a gloomy muscular man from the town nearby. She did not like him, because he did not behave well and he was bullying her all the time. Moreover, he was not so well-off as her two other suitors, and people said that his servants were not living a good life. In his house, nobody was allowed to express themselves, let alone give their opinions. When the bride was about to make up her mind and choose the man of her life, the unpleasant gloomy suitor entered her house. He shook her, he beat her, he raped her and dragged her out. ”I take you, because you belong to me”, he said. ”I take you to my house where you belong. There you will always do what I tell you to do.”
apologists for President-for-life Putin...
Let's suppose that whataboutery like this suddenly became a valid argument...
OTHER country did some OTHER time somewhere ELSE?
Its about Ukrainian sovereignty!!! Its about doing whats right!!!
No, its not, you child. The actions of powerful states are not morally driven. The moral arguments only mask non moral interests. Iraq, Syria, and Libya were coaxed in terms of morality. Sadam, Assad, and Gedaffi were all "evil" and "killed their own people" which supposedly gave America justification to invade those sovereign nations. But Americas intervention killed more than these evil leaders ever did and absolutely ruined those countries for generations. People who actually believe the good guy narrative tend to get caught up in intentions a become a horrible liability to any common good. These people just stop thinking after its shown that X guy is evil, and then they want to give all power to Y guy. That is what you are doing now, and Y guy is America. So yes, the whataboutism is very relevant. Iraq, Syria, and Libya were not isolated events in the past. It is how America operates, and to a lesser extent, how powerful states operate. Stop pretending that the Russian/American involvement in Ukraine has anything to do with morality. Your unilateral application of morality only upsets stability gives more power to the expanding protagonist, America. Useful idiot.
My message is very simple. Its not pro putin. It is simply that people stop using the language of righteousness as that has nothing to do with what brought us here and where we are headed. Be real about the fact that America intentionally threatened Russia and Russia legitimately feels threatened. Why did America do that? Was it worth it? We wont be a superpower forever, nor would i want that. Use your brain and look past the propaganda.
There are men in Ukraine being forced to fight. As they are leaving cities, a perimeter has been set-up and men are being pulled out of cars at gun-point. I was told this directly from the mother of a 55 year old Tartar man who has no desire for war, but is now missing. This is a Family relation, not some crazed pro-Putin Muscovite.
So it's not quite the story we are being told by CNN/ BBC
The massacres of civilians in Ukraine are the sole responsibility of the moron living in the Kremlin and I hope he will pay for it in an international court of justice.
sure thing bud. Why did other NATO countries told the US to back off? But I guess you know more than them. Your heart knows all.
Thousands of those who had been living in Spain for years have returned to their homeland to defend it. Kidnapped? don't make me laugh.
Some want to fight, some are held hostage and forced to fight. He is literally preventing them from leaving; thats why he made the decree.
Biden could have avoided the war by agreeing to Putin’s demand to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
It’s the US Neocons and war mongers who are to blame: they invaded Iraq with false pretense of WMD just to send 5,000 US troops to their death for oil, led by Cheney without a UN resolution. US had supported Saddam all along because he was fighting their nemesis Iran. When Saddam invaded Kuwait then it’s when Bush Sr. turned against him. In 1991 Bush had an opportunity to remove Saddam but didn’t. And in 2003 all the invasion of Iraq accomplished was to create instability that gave rise to ISIS.
In 1979, when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Brzeżynski had a crazy idea to support the Taliban islamists against the Soviets, only to face Bin Laden 22 years later.
The US neocon and globalists are warmongers who destroys aka “nation build” other countries, with wastes of money and efforts let alone blood of fallen US soldiers. Now they turn around and tell Putin not to do what they have been doing for years. Sorry pals, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
Trump was a swamp drainer, who also wanted to reset an American foreign policy. He was fought by the strong lobbyists and establishment aka “deep state” in both parties.
My concern is that these same globalist neocons who have vested interests in the military industrial complex are going to either drag China and Russia to create a formal “axis” alliance against the democratic West, or intentionally or not - cause a hot war between Russia and America, with nukes involved.
@Kristina
- very strong and powerful - USA - NATO
- wealthy and friendly - European Union
- a long-standing friend of her kin and she knew that he was a good guy- Who? An Ukrainian boy? Independent Ukraine outside of NATO, EU and Russian influence? Utopia?
- a gloomy muscular man from the town nearby, the unpleasant gloomy suitor - Russia
@Deanno
Biden could have avoided the war by agreeing to Putin’s demand to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
LOL Bullshit
The minute a Russian gets rich they fly to a NATO country and spend much of their money.
It is very difficult to look at NATO as anything more than the fake enemy a tyrant needs to keep power and suppress his people.
@Rob
https://www.webmd.com/schizophrenia/schizophrenia-paranoia
OK Dave
Under Trump, there was peace for 4 years. “America First”, modeled after Woodrow Wilson, was a reprieve from the preceding Obama-Biden years. Years which had the US bomb the heck out of Syria (without a Congressional authorization), intervened in Libya (to wit the Benghazi debacle, which Hillary Clinton got away scot-free), and the senseless extraterritorial persecution of Julian Assange, whose sole alleged sin was leaking DNC emails detailing how Clinton knifed Sanders and planned to spy on the Trump campaign.
Trump got along with Putin as a stroke of diplomacy, to cajole Putin by telling the latter what he wanted to hear. Biden OTOH was provoking Putin by ruling out Ukraine’s exclusion from the alliance.
And karma apparently is having the last laugh after all - the US, which defeated the Russians in Afghanistan by providing weapons to the Mujahidin (Taliban forefathers) got 9-11, which prompted it to invade. We spent twice the amount of time as the Soviet did, just to pull out disastrously 20 years later. Outcome is 3,000 dead US troops and $85,000,000,000 in state of the arts weaponry seized by the Taliban.
We never learn from history!
Trump by the way was not a Putin puppet but a man who had the wits to make P climb down a tree. T defended American and by extension Western interests because he knew how to keep Putin at bay. Clinton’s, Biden’s, Blinker’s and others’ belligerent tone towards him serves no good but aggravating the situation. Recently with the Durham report and now with the NYT publication of the Hunter Biden laptop story it seems Trump was vindicated at last.
Biden’s off the cuff signature on executive orders banning Russian oil imports goes against the grain of the position of European countries, first and foremost Germany- who are highly dependent on Russian gas. The result is a major rift within NATO between the Biden Admin and EU countries. Another source of disagreement stems from the Polish MIG aircraft issue. I’m far from being a fan of European integration, let alone a European Army, nevertheless with Biden acting unilaterally to impose his will the day is not far even the French and German decide to break away from NATO and form a fledgling EU military force.
But Biden is his worst enemy yet when it comes to the domestic policy consequences of his policy. With most Republicans blaming him for high gasoline and food prices already (rather than Putin), his approval rating is fast slipping further ahead of the midterms only 8 months away.
Quick summary of the war so far...
https://twitter.com/samak_e_ayyar/status/1505237261385756681
@ Davidski
You being a pfizer spokeman was a joke, you need to lighten up
For a million people aged 20-29 receiving 2 doses of some vax, <0.1 Covid deaths would be prevented; whilst an average of ~ 1 deaths can be expected from Thromobosis. And that's modelled deaths. When you add up Thrombosis-but-not-dead, and other issues e.g. pericarditis and the like, cost:benefit ratio is low. It's in fact negatively skewed. Its similar for ages 30+ . It only becomes positive when you get 60+
Hence, the vaccine should have been prioritised for that age group. Aside from the poor health economics of the rollout, it actually violated basic human rights through coercion, firings, so forth
As for US Congressmen pre-investing into munitions and energy stocks, Ill look into it. But its a foregone conclusion, really.
@Rob
I see that it is a settled custom of the Russians to answer each accusation not in a matter-of-fact way, but with an argument such as: "And among you they are beating Negroes".
Do you know who in Russia introduced such a custom?
@Hi All
(sourse: G.Khvorykh tables:
In the combined number IBD and normalized IBD counting, Russia has common ancestors among the seven populations of Central and Eastern and Northern Europe:
1) with Finno-Ugric populations (Vepsia, Karelia, Finland, Ingria, Komi) 176.80 IBD
2) with Baltic populations (Estonia, Latvia) 69.44 IBD
3) with Slavic populations (Poland, Belarus, Ukraine) 0 IBD (sic!)
So does Putin have the right to wage a deadly war with Ukraine in order to connect it with Russia as an allegedly "one inseparable nation"?
@ Matt. An afterthought. You do realise Salmond has not been a member of the SNP for years, right? He got his show on RT, as far as I remember, after he was out of parliamentary politics. He was always a showman, and certainly UK broadcasters would run screaming for the hills rather than countenance him, but it was still something of a surprise to hear he popped up on RT. People were amused, although I didn’t know anyone that watched it. Shrewd as ever, although slower than he used to be, he resigned soon after the invasion.
@ Matt. An afterthought. You do realise Salmond has not been a member of the SNP for years, right? He got his show on RT, as far as I remember, after he was out of parliamentary politics. He was always a showman, and certainly UK broadcasters would run screaming for the hills rather than countenance him, but it was still something of a surprise to hear he popped up on RT. People were amused, although I didn’t know anyone that watched it. Shrewd as ever, although slower than he used to be, he resigned soon after the invasion.
@Rob: is there any country under invasion that allows draft-dodging? Defending your country isn’t actually voluntary in wartime.
It is a weird thing how Nato, a mutual self defence pact between about 30 countries, is being presented by some as if it’s a thing in itself, and a monolithic thing at that.
The logic of the claim that Ukraine was somehow being wheedled — or even coerced — to join is astonishing in its absurdity.
As if 30 countries would have all volunteered to instantly pitch themselves into a war for this prospective- / non-member.
Maybe the Russian worldview is just so welded to the idea that the bits they annex from other countries are now Russian, that they can’t see how this looks from the outside: the country has been invaded in 2008 and 2014 and those areas, the territorial integrity if Ukraine, would instantly have to be defended by Nato.
It’s so blindingly obvious that 30 countries are not gonna volunteer for this, that some people thought forestalling the possibility of joining Nato was a huge part of the original rationale for annexation (and likewise in Moldova).
No stupider than being “forced” to flatten Mariupole for fear of bioweapons labs in Odessa, I suppose.
Or “saving” ethnic Russians in, and “de-nazifying” a country that elected a Russian-mother-tongue secular Jew as president…by promptly bombing the holocaust memorial.
Anyway, as we enter the fourth week of this war, what’s Putin’s fourth ludicrous excuse going to be?
Awesome combat footage from a Ukrainian night raid on a Russian command post in Mariupol.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1505498916523065351
The defenders of Mariupol aren't just fighting to the last man, they're counter attacking.
@ weeee
Given that your pseudonym brings up images of piss, i wonder if you would shit yourself in war. Now you are getting sanctimonious & bitchy because the image that BBC news tells you doesn't quite align with reality. But of course, this is your general pattern - long sermons with large segments of bold but mediocre intellectual substance
@Rob
Putin's a good boy. He dindu nuffin.
@weee is there any country under invasion that allows draft-dodging? Defending your country isn’t actually voluntary in wartime.
Not every country has a draft. You say that Putin has no right to kill innocents, or use his power to take over a weaker country, but then you turn around and just blindly accept that Zelenski has the right to decide who lives and dies. You don't have a liberal leg to stand on. You dont actually believe in self determination, you believe in power.
Gaska said that Russia was killing innocents, but those ukrainian men are also innocent, and zelenski is killing them. Maybe you would question zelensky's right to kill Ukrainians if he was arming the women and forcing them fight Russia.
I really just wish the US did not push further east. It gives us no benefit and it clearly made Russia retaliate. Daviski thinks putin was going to invade Ukraine regardless but thats all speculation. There is an argument for Uniting Eastern Ukraine with Russia. they really are essentially the same, or were at least. There is no argument for a return of the Russian empire and everybody knows that Russia cannot pull it off. So like I said, the US and Zelensky threatened Russia and did so with little regard to the Ukrainian people
@Rob “Given that your pseudonym brings up images of piss,”
Isn’t strange how much you say about yourself when you think you’re talking about someone else?
“i wonder if you would shit yourself in war. “
Oh, absolutely. And…?
“Now you are getting sanctimonious”
Says he, pouting that citizens’ responsibilities aren’t optional during invasion.
“& bitchy”
Oh, dear. See above
“because the image that BBC news tells you doesn't quite align with reality. ”
More unfounded presumptions about reality: this only speaks of yourself.
“But of course, this is your general pattern - long sermons with large segments of bold “
This at least is true. My eyesight is rubbish, my editing poor, my typing is worse, and my formatting is highly unreliable: an ageing pedestrian on the information highway.
“but mediocre intellectual substance”
Ouchy. You’re on a self-revelation roll here: OK, so we know what really bothers you.
@pnuadha
Your arguments don't make any sense.
Zelensky can't give in to Putin's threats. In fact, he has an obligation not to do so.
There are two main reasons for this:
- no self-respecting leader can be expected to just give up because of threats and acts of terror
- he has the support of practically his whole country, because if he didn't then Russia wouldn't be losing the war right now.
@pnuadha: I don't know if you identify as a conservative, but I have to say, denouncing the minimal level of expectation of patriotism and duty in physically capable men fighting to defend the country from actual hostile unprovoked empire building invasion... is a spectacularly self-defeating position to take for any sort of conservative who values duty to country. Rather than some globalised world of only cosmopolitan duties to humanity as a whole. Your country can't demand you go on insane foreign expeditions, but calling you to defense to repel an imperial foreign invasion is pretty basic stuff - if they can't ask that of you, then what?
(Hellboy II is underrated btw).
@pnuadha “Not every country has a draft.”
That doesn’t address what you quoted,
“is there any country under invasion that allows draft-dodging? Defending your country isn’t actually voluntary in wartime.”
@ pnuadha “ You don't have a liberal leg to stand on. ”
I’ve never claimed to be a liberal.
Zelensky is a duly elected president. Further, he was elected in the knowledge that Russia would attack at some point.
The first and fundamental duty of any government is to defend the nation, its sovereignty, self-determination, territorial integrity, not only for the present population but their descendants.
What a democracy is, it is an electorate taking responsibility for their government as well as vice-versa. The overwhelming response of Ukrainians is a resolve to defend their country, that’s undeniable. (Or else Putin’s Nuremberg-style rally the other day would have been the victory rally it was undoubtedly scheduled to be.). And it’s why Ukrainians picked the government they did in 2019, and why they continue to defend — not because a leader unilaterally decided it.
I know this is difficult for people from many countries to grasp, whose experience and underpinning concept of nationhood and sovereignty is exclusively top-down. It is difficult to understand the mutual-contract way that people accustomed to democracy view their governments, and the easy separation they make between any particular government of the day and the country as such.
For instance, British citizens can (and many do) say loudly and often that Boris Johnson is an oaf, a venal clown, an embarrassment, corrupt and a charlatan, and his government are no better — without anyone in the UK thinking this entails disloyalty to the country. Or that it’s not consonant with democracy: they take it as an expression of it. They can and do say the same thing of the royal family and, again, fellow citizens do not mistake that opinion for any lack loyalty to the country, they take it as an opinion about individuals or an objection to constitutional monarchy.
Ukrainians, from what they are saying (as refugees, newly armed militia, non-combatants and government) seem to have reached a similar “western” concept of participatory democracy, nationhood and national self-determination. Maybe that’s what bothers Putin most, the real danger he sees next door.
If Zelensky is Slavic Ukrainian, why is he banning so many Slavic Ukrainian parties from the Senate? Who decides who is Slavic Ukrainian. Why do US news support Zelensky? Why does nobody support the freedom fighters in Yemen where people are starving,? No people with Yemeni flags of support, no financial abide for their army, nothing in U S mainstream media playing continuous of the Yemeni plight?
Anyway it’s a horrible situation. We can fingerpoint endlessly.
We have to hope that this doesn’t spiral out of control current
Other threats are looming, USA needs to focus on that. I’d be the first wave it’s flag in that theatre
@Rob look at the pandemic, now overlooked because Zelensky speeches asking for help to world leaders. Do you think Walenshky should give more input about Bourlas # 4 vaccine idea, for mandatory use in the US Army? And vaccines that have total immunity from legal lawsuits should be mandated for children under 5 along with face masks? The reason why I'm asking is in Canada we had a martial type law briefly enacted aginst protesters. Within a month Zelensky is given a standing ovation by Canadian politicians when he himself declares martial law and mandates war and bans parties that don't agree with him.
Results are what matter. The results of weak American foreign policy include aggressive behavior from tyrants.
During the 44th and 46th US presidents, Russia proceeded with invasions. Peace comes through strength among the civilized. President #40 showed us this without a doubt. Presidents 41 and 42 squandered the peace dividend.
@a
Who says that Zelensky is Slavic Ukrainian? He is Jew. And there are no Slavic parties in the Ukrainian Senate. He banned them for being pro-Russian (most of them are socialistic, pro-Soviet, pro-Marxist). For example, the leader of the main opposition party in the country is Medvedchuk, and Putin is the godfather to his daughter. Another leader of one of the banned parties, now actively cooperating with the Russians in Kherson (where the Ukrainian flag has already been replaced to a Russian one and Russian TV channels are broadcasting)
Ukraine is at war with Russia, so pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine are now traitors.
That's why their parties are banned for the time being. Duh.
Azov Battalion is a rag tag of White Nationalists Neo-Nazis who according to some sources have been using civilian population in Mariupol as a human shield. Not everyone in Ukraine is as clean as a Snow White dove. And the Biden thing bragging about firing of Viktor Shokin, the Atty gen who was investigating Hunter and Burisma smacks of a convoy of interest and an abuse of power to me.
@matt if they can't ask that of you, then what?
He is asking them to die. That is the biggest violation of human rights possible. Your whole argument rests on Ukraine's right of self determination. If the people decide they are a nation, separate from Russia, then that wish should be respected by every powerful actor. But as soon as Russia invades it is decided that they must die for said country and Zelenky has the authority to decide exactly who must die? There is voting on paper, there is voting with your feet, and there is voting with your life. You do not believe in self determination, you believe in subjects.
Why are the women allowed to leave as refugees? Population decline is already a major issue for Ukraine and many of the refugees will never return. You have already established a states right to rule over its subjects when its existence is under threat. Population decline is an existential threat to the state of Ukraine. If you can tell people to die for Ukraine, you can tell them to stay, work, and make babies for Ukraine.
@weee The first and fundamental duty of any government is to defend the nation, its sovereignty, self-determination, territorial integrity, not only for the present population but their descendants.
You dont believe in self determination if you dont believe in people choosing who they can die for. As for fundamental duty, Russia can say the exact same thing. You already think that states can protect themselves by forcing people to die. That is what Russia is doing.
@Davidski
Ukraine is at war with Russia, so pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine are now traitors.
That's why their parties are banned for the time being. Duh.
Not just politicians, there are pro Russian sections of the country. You believe in Ukraine, not self determination.
@Draft Dozen wrote: Who says that Zelensky is Slavic Ukrainian? He is Jew.
I would even like it if Zelenski was genetically a Jew-Slav.
There is such a haplogroup.
They are the lineage of Levi CTS6 > Y2619/b> and the descendants of , that is mainly , the leader, and Aaron - the Jewish high priest.
Their great-great-great…father probably comes from the burial mound in Glavanesti near the Prut river in the foothills of the Carpathians. In the early Middle Ages, until recently, Ashkenazi Jews with the priestly line of Levi, that is, Moses and Aaron, settled again in wider Polish-Ukrainian territories, ie Slavic Jews.
Wee e wrote: Zelensky is a duly elected president. Further, he was elected in the knowledge that Russia would attack at some point.
———
So was Yanukovich. Staging the Euronaidan 2024 coup de état just because people didn’t agree with his pro-Russian orientation that resulted in toppling him isn’t so different than in a case where a Trump supporter stages one here over policy lets say mask mandate, and deposed Biden.
@a “look at the pandemic, now overlooked because Zelensky speeches asking for help to world leaders”
So, as the hacks and their editors don’t think a third year of the same old same old (endemic version) is front page news, all the epidemiologists and researchers and doctors and hospital directors and the civil-servants of the national public-health departments & ministries of the world are now spending their working day…glued to coverage of Putin’s war? That is disturbing.
So if we take away the optics, this is really a war a power struggle between the Neo-oligarchs from Kiev & the west of Ukraine backed by US military aid and those in Moscow protecting their interests & people supportive of Russia. The former brand themselves as the true identity of a new Ukraine; the other don’t. Many of you are anti-Russian and that’s your valid sentiment no one is asking you to change that.
But the rest of the world isn’t so convinced
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/much-of-the-world-is-ambivalent-about-the-ukraine-war-rightly-so/
@ Matt
Many people in crimea and eastern Ukraine are transnational, with business interests with the Arab world and Russia. Why would they want to sacrifice that over some dream about joining the EU.
Maybe this could have been avoided if compromise was reached in the preceding 8!
years (neglected by media)
Similar thing happened in Bosnia . Izetbegovic - who wrote an Islamic manifesto- wanted all of Bosnia to himself. The Serbs & Croats wanted no part. The USA told him to martyr his people because world sentiment would swing toward him & so he thwarted Lord Owen’s pace plan . Izetbegovic was being supplied by Al Qaeda, who then flew some planes into WTC to show their solidarity with the West
@Deanno
You're mentally weak; easily influenced by Russian propaganda.
@pnuadha
There are no pro Russian parts of Ukraine.
All free parts of Ukraine, even the Russian speaking parts, are now heavily pro Ukrainian.
The only parts of Ukraine that were pro Russian (before the war) were Crimea and the so called DPR/LPR republics in the east, because they were largely populated by ethnic Russians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic
Don't the people and related languages of Ukraine and Russia ultimately originate from the region of Ukrainian People's Republic (UPR), or Ukrainian National Republic (UNR),[c] a country in Eastern Europe that existed between 1917 and 1920 and that is connected to PIE?
@a
You're an imbecile, and you prove it every time you post here.
@Davidski
Any idea when the gentic data of Yamnaya and Catacombe-- Ukranian Kurgans is going to be released?
@ Deanno: what he said.
@StP
„I would even like it if Zelenski was genetically a Jew-Slav.
There is such a haplogroup. They are the lineage of Levi CTS6 > Y2619/b> and the descendants of , that is mainly , the leader, and Aaron - the Jewish high priest.
Their great-great-great…father probably comes from the burial mound in Glavanesti near the Prut river in the foothills of the Carpathians. In the early Middle Ages, until recently, Ashkenazi Jews with the priestly line of Levi, that is, Moses and Aaron, settled again in wider Polish-Ukrainian territories, ie Slavic Jews.”
I know that you are a very religious man and a Slavic patriot, so you would be very happy to find some Slavic contribution to your religion. But remember, you are Christian, not Jewish.
The origin of Christianity is more in Orphism and Mithraism than in Judaism.
You are essentially right, the origin of your religion was somewhere in the foothills of the Carpathians. But the route to you was different. It was like this:
Slavic in the foothills of the Carpathians –> R1a-Z93 Vedic/Mithraic –> Christianity
Slavic in the foothills of the Carpathians –> R1a-Z283 Orphic –> Christianity
If somebody could explain the origin of Christianity to neocons in the USA maybe they would stop doing what they are doing.
I am not taking sides here. Everybody is at fault. This horrible war should never happen.
In my opinion Ukraine has become an unwitting victim and proxy in the resurgent Cold War against Russia and China. Poland may be the next victim soon. This is a tragedy. PIE homeland is in danger. The USA, Russia and China should start talking immediately to save the most sacred land in the world.
Everybody is not at fault.
Russia started the war by invading Ukraine.
Russia can end the war at any time by withdrawing its troops from Ukraine.
Everyone.
I made a cartoon which takes place during the Bell Beaker invasion of Britain.
The Story of Tamarick, the Last Neolithic Briton.
https://youtu.be/aAW377QWSME?t=187
I have already read all kinds of comments, some say that everibody is at fault, others understand Russia's motives for invading Ukraine (origin of Russians, brotherly peoples, common homeland, Russians in Crimea and Donbas), others try to criminalize Zelensky's regime (kidnapping of men to fight, dictatorial ways, inclusion of Ukrainian-Nazi white supremacists in the army, refusal to negotiate), others blame the international policy of the United States and its intention to extend the power of NATO to the East, others justify that Russia has violated international laws because the United States has done it repeatedly in recent years (Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan...). ..). All these arguments seek to justify the unjustifiable and none of these thinkers give a shit about the Ukrainian people. Some say this is horrible or should not have happened but they exculpate the bad guys with all sorts of arguments.
I have already explained in a post why the invasion is against international law and why Putin deserves to be tried as a war criminal so I will only say that all those countries that support the Russian federation (it seems that Mr Putin has many fervent supporters not only in Russia but all over the world) will be complicit in the crimes that are being committed. The West must continue to logistically support the Ukrainians and the ultimate goal must be to destroy the new Soviet Union or they will destroy us.
There is nothing to negotiate with criminals, there is no place for traitors who do not want to fight for their homeland, there is no argument that can justify the massacres that are taking place and there is no chance that Mr Putin will have a different future than his dear comrades (Hitler etc)
And of course this has nothing to do with the sacred homeland of the Indo-Europeans, nor with the PIE, nor with the genetics of Zelensky or the Ukrainians, but with the suffering of millions of people who have lost their country, their homes, their families and their future because of a lunatic-
You are right, Russia started and should stop, but it has gone too far now. Russians think they are right and fight for ethnic Russian lands, and they cannot stop because USA wants to destroy Russia. So probably Russia will not stop. So what will be next?
If that war spills to Poland it will be nuclear. Limited nuclear war is possible. Total nuclear war is not possible. NATO may win but Poland and Germany will be devastated.
I am not thinking about who is right and who is wrong. I want to save Poland.
In Polish interest is free Ukraine. But it is not in our interest to enter nuclear war because USA wants Ukraine to fight for Crimea and Donbas.
Ukraine will not enter the EU and will not enter NATO, because Western Europeans don’t want it, and they say it openly. So what are Ukrainians fighting for?
Let’s hope I am wrong in my fears.
@EastPole
Ukraine was never going to be a NATO member, so that's not a relevant issue.
But Ukraine will be accepted into the EU, probably a lot sooner than most people think.
And, obviously, Ukraine is fighting to get Russia off its back permanently, and that's looking like a more realistic aim with each passing day.
The more interesting question is why is Russia still fighting, and what for exactly?
This war is a total disaster for Russia on all fronts, and four weeks in, it's still not able to occupy Mariupol and/or Kharkiv. That is, Russian speaking cities near the Russian border.
Also, just in, Russia can no longer produce tanks or any sort of more complicated battle vehicles due to western sanctions and a lack of parts. At the same time, it's reported that its ammo supplies in Ukraine will run out in about three days.
So yeah, Putin needs an exit strategy fast, but I don't think nuking Poland is it.
First of all, he has to be able to launch a nuke into Poland, and as far as I know, there's a host of technical issues with such an undertaking both within and outside of Russia.
David, one more thing. We should never believe in our own propaganda. When you read Polish newspaper from September 1939 it is written there that Polish army is winning, German army suffers heavy losses and is totally demoralized. German people don’t want war and are mass demonstrations in Berlin against that war, etc. etc.
I don’t know what the truth is. Let’s hope you are right.
@pnuadna, interpreting conscription during invasion as breaching the conception of national self-determination is very strange. Self-determination does not require complete anarcho-libertarianism and requires responsibilities. You may as well say existence of prisons, and taxes, and tax funded armies, breaches self determination.
In any case it probably doesn't matter much to Ukraine's forces. That does not look like the performance of an army that is relying on people who want to escape the combat zone and country, and who flee and avoid battle as much as they can. I doubt if more than 1 in 10 of their conscripts wanted to leave the country, probably less. This is not the Afghan national army in the face of the Taliban, in early 2021.
An army whose members are confused about what they are doing and don't want to be there looks if anything more like the Russian army (allegedly to the point of alleged self-mutilation to escape the combat zone - https://nypost.com/2022/03/18/russian-troops-reportedly-shooting-themselves-in-the-legs-to-avoid-fighting/).
@EastPole
Ukraine's success in this war is not propaganda.
If it was, then Russia would not be struggling to storm Mariupol and Kharkiv a month after starting the war.
Even if the Russians finally take Mariupol, they won't be able to take any other major city, and especially not Kyiv, which is six times bigger.
@ Genos
Like the video . Some light hearted historical humour in dark times . must have taken quite some effort
@Davidski
“Putin needs an exit strategy fast, but I don't think nuking Poland is it.”
Poland keeps helping Ukraine. To stop it Russia will attack Poland. Top Polish politicians talk about it openly:
https://dorzeczy.pl/kraj/278806/spotkanie-w-kprm-zasugerowal-ze-polska-stanie-sie-ofiara-agresji.html
The Polish army is weak. If the USA sends its army then whoever loses will use nukes. Limited nuclear war is possible. Total nuclear war is unthinkable. NATO may win but Poland and Germany will be devastated.
https://dorzeczy.pl/opinie/278872/gen-polko-nato-powinno-odpowiedziec-na-szantaz-nuklearny-rosji.html
I think that I understand the Ukrainian situation very well.
Croatia was almost in identical position in Yugoslav wars.
I think that Russians now are copying the Serbian tactics in Yugoslav wars.
The difference was only that we didn't get any help from the outside. And nobody supported us not even close as Ukraine is supported today by the free world.
We were under embargo and all had questioned and debated whether we were a democratic or a fascist country.
The incredible propaganda machinery was employed by Serbia and in Serbia, very similar to the Russian claims that Ukrainian government is fascist and that they need to denazify Ukraine.
Serbia attacked Croatia with the same tactics. They started with the creation of autonomous regions with the Serb majority (Krajina was our Donbas). From there they expelled all non-Serb population and started to expand their territory.
They tried to cut the Croatian territory into several parts and to conquer those parts subsequently. The line Karlobag-Karlovac-Virovitica (going from coast south of Rijeka to the Hunagarian border) was nothing different from the split of Ukraine into eastern and western part.
Our hotels on the coast and in Zagreb were full of refugees from the so called Krajina.
We also had our Mariupol but not on the Black Sea but on the banks of the Danube. And it offered strong resistance and it was razed to the ground by Serbia.
And they massacred the people of Vukovar in the same way as the Russians are doing today in Mariupol. And we initially lost Vukovar. But it was Pir's victory for Serbia and Milošević.
You know what happened after.
@EastPole
Well, Russia's army is a circus.
Apart from the fact that Polish air space is now protected by some nice surface to air missiles, I reckon the Russians would nuke themselves before managing to nuke Poland.
@Davidski
“Polish air space is now protected by some nice surface to air missiles”
Hypersonic weapons are very difficult to counter using existing defenses.
@EastPole
The supposed ammunition store in western Ukraine that the Russians destroyed with their so called hypersonic missile was actually a chicken barn in eastern Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine
And there's still no evidence that this barn was blown up with anything special, with the Americans backtracking that a hypersonic missile was used.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1506024567231246342
I have been trying to understand more about the consciousness which might relate to this
On Wiki -
''A major rebellion of self-governed Ukrainian Cossacks inhabiting south-eastern borderlands of the Commonwealth rioted against Polish and Catholic oppression of Orthodox Ukraine in 1648, in what came to be known as the Khmelnytsky Uprising. It resulted in a Ukrainian request, under the terms of the Treaty of Pereyaslav, for protection by the Russian Tsar. In 1651, in the face of a growing threat from Poland, and forsaken by his Tatar allies, Khmelnytsky asked the Tsar to incorporate Ukraine as an autonomous duchy under Russian protection. Russian annexation of Zaporizhian Ukraine gradually supplanted Polish influence in that part of Europe. In the years following, Polish settlers, nobles, Catholics and Jews became the victims of retaliation massacres instigated by the Cossacks in their dominions. ''
Today's Ukrainians look to Poland and the EU, but the Ukrainians of the 17th century apparently fought against Poland. How complex identities can be
@ ph2ter
I would think that the Serbs had a precedent to propose to be afraid of Ustase -type nationalism in a new Croatian ethno-state, even prepare for bad times, and ask for some kind of solidarity with other Serbs strewn across Former Yugoslavia, because they were.
But that kind of went out the window when they invaded Dalmatia & Zagreb. And shelled Sarajevo
@Rob
You're posting all of the classic Russian propaganda memes.
Where are you picking these up? Facebook?
@EastPole said "Ukraine will not enter the EU and will not enter NATO, because Western Europeans don’t want it, and they say it openly.
That's not true, what happens is that Ukraine does not meet any of the requirements to enter the European Union. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine signed an Association Agreement in 2014 and in 2022, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they applied to join the EU because they see that it is the only solution to maintain their independence.. Given the situation, a special statute for Ukraine is being prepared because they have shown that they are also fighting for us. Another problem is that other countries have been waiting for years and they may feel discriminated-North Macedonia (2.005), Montenegro (2.010), Serbia (2.012), Albania (2.014), Bosnia....
@East Pole said-So what are Ukrainians fighting for?"
They are fighting for their survival, for Ukraine to continue to exist as an independent country, for freedom and democracy, values that no Russian satrap will ever understand because they are only nostalgic for the Russian empire.The Poles (and the rest of the European Union) are being very generous with the Ukrainian refugees and you have to feel safe because if the Russians (or Belarusians) attack Poland all of Europe will go to war. I don't think the Russians dare to do it.
@ Dave
That's from English Wikipedia. What's your point ?
East Pole wrote:
If somebody could explain the origin of Christianity to neocons in the USA maybe they would stop doing what they are doing.
I am not taking sides here. Everybody is at fault. This horrible war should never happen.
—————
The neocons destroyed Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan etc but primarily they destroyed the USA. Project for New American Century was launched in 1997, 4 years before 911. Clinton had a chance to take out Bin Laden in 1998 but ruled it out.
Cheney lied to the American people that Saddam allegedly had WMD. 5000 dead GI and $3,000,000,000,000 later, none was found but it created ISIS. Cheney OTOH got filthy rich with his corp, Haliburton.
The USA defied and flouted a UN resolution, and unilaterally invaded Iraq. No one boycotted American merch or raw materials nor called Bush or Cheney to face ICC, to which the US is not even a signatory to this day.
Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam: a partial list where we invade a country, just to pull with our tail between our legs.
And now, Putin is playing by the neocon globalist playbook. I am concerned that it would trigger a neocon “Jihad” against him (a NATO attack) that would result in a nuclear WWIII.
The Soviets were in Afghanistan for 10 years. US 2X as much. If Brzeżynski hadn’t come up with the “genius” idea of supplying the Majahedeen with weapons to repel the Russians/Soviets, perhaps those crazy fanatic Islamists would not have turned on us and carried out Sep11.
Same rational Reagan had to support Saddam Hussain in the 1980 just because he was fighting against our enemy Iran at the time. Until he invaded Kuwait…
Neocon fingerprints all over again. Never learning. More American casualties and wasted tax dollars. Sad!
The vendetta of Uncle Sam’s swamp and deep state against individuals such as Snowden (who exposed how CIA, NSA have been spying on US citizens unconstitutionally) and Julian Assange (who’s only son was to expose how Hillary Clinton used the DNC to undermine Sanders and the spying against Trump, to wit the Durham report) is way more than just “concerning”.
Gaska,
You live in Spain. And you are a member of a historically persecuted minority. Why is it okay for a supposedly democratic Spain to deny the Catalan minority a democratic vote for independence or at least for more autonomy in a legally binding plebiscite, whereas 80% of Catalan individuals indicated that they would prefer such options at the ballot box?
Why did the Spanish government put Catalan leaders in prison for treason just because they organized a non official plebiscite to that effect?
Why is it wrong if a tyrannical dictator to suppress and oppress his opposition but not for an allegedly democratic country which is a NATO member?
Double standard and neocon mentality all over again…
@ Gaska
Given that you're such a humanitarian, you should also mention the thousands of Russians killed between 2014-2022 by Zelenski's regimen.
@Davidski
You may be right. But why, if Russia is so weak, the USA, GB, Germany, France, Spain are so afraid to enter this war. They are much stronger and richer than us. The USA should give Mig 29 planes to Ukraine, not Poland. The USA should lead a NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, not Poland.
@EastPole
All the experts grossly overestimated Russia's conventional military strength before this war.
My guess is that they're also overestimating its nuclear capabilities.
But a nuclear war is a nuclear war, so it's best to err on the side of caution.
@Deanno said-"And you are a member of a historically persecuted minority"
I'm sorry but you don't know the history of Spain or the Basque Country. The provinces of Vizcaya and Alava voluntarily joined the kingdom of Castile in 1200. 800 years have passed and we were never persecuted by the Castilians. The proof is that we still maintain our language, customs and traditions. Moreover, the laws of purity of blood made us privileged compared to the Americans or Andalusians who could not prove that they did not have Jewish or Moorish blood. Persecuted? no way, the problems of the Basque terrorism are linked to the ultra-left ideologies of Western Europe.
@Deanno said-"Why is it okay for a supposedly democratic Spain to deny the Catalan minority a democratic vote for independence or at least for more autonomy in a legally binding plebiscite, whereas 80% of Catalan individuals indicated that they would prefer such options at the ballot box? Why did the Spanish government put Catalan leaders in prison for treason just because they organized a non official plebiscite to that effect?
It was an illegal referendum (supported among others by Putin and European Marxists) because it was contrary to national and international law. As I said in other post "I have to remind you that countries’ sovereignty, political independence, and territorial integrity are widely recognized principles, enshrined in the United Nations Charter.The right of peoples to self-determination is a fundamental right under international law. That means that the Catalans has a right to determine its political status and pursue its economic, social, and cultural development. Yet, there is no right to unilaterally secede from a state and form a separate state. In recognition of states’ right to preserve their territorial integrity, secession is allowed only in extreme cases of repeated oppression or subjugation of the minority, leaving it with no other option to exercise “internal self-determination” in a meaningful way. International lawyers call this “remedial secession.”-The independence fighters are a minority and only sought to perpetuate their privileges by blackmailing the kingdom of Spain. They have paid for their treason with jail and I don't think they intend to repeat it and if they do, they will go back to jail.
The American neocons have nothing to do with the Europeans. Europe does not invade countries or try to impose puppet regimes in other countries, we only defend ourselves from all those who hate us and want our destruction (which apparently are many-Islamists, Africanists, Russians, Chinese, Indians, Turks)- Neither the United States can be trusted (neocons or wokes) you are exporting an ideology destructive to Western civilization.
@Rob
You cannot compare one situation with the other, Ukrainians were trying to keep the unity of their homeland because they knew that Georgia and Moldova lost part of their territories because of Putin's wars. This war is going to last for weeks or months, Ukraine is going to be devastated, we will have millions of refugees and thousands of dead, the economic crisis is going to be monstrous and all because Putin thinks he is the reincarnation of Catherine the Great.
@Daenno
There is no point in the method that when others reproach Russia for its present errors, there are no words of translation or regret, but you reply with Brezhnev's method: "Your people opress Negroes."
Do other people's faults justify yours today?
@East Pole wrote "You may be right. But why, if Russia is so weak,.."
"A dog fatally wounded becomes the most dangerous"
Russia seems to be weakened, therefore the most crazy and dangerous!
@Rob,
Thanks. Yes, it is fun to make jokes about ancient DNA. Ancient DNA provides us with plenty of material for comedy. I think this is the funniest part of my video.
https://youtu.be/aAW377QWSME
I'm not the funniest guy in the world but I'm doing my best. A running theme is I personally know all the ancient ghosts who talk in my videos.
I make a valid point there too. The original study didn't discuss how unstoppable the Beaker folk were and that therefore we should be skeptical of the idea a Neolithic tribe held on to orkney.
This is also a funny part of my video.
https://youtu.be/aAW377QWSME?t=616
Tamarick as a ghost haunts survive the jive while he is visiting a Megalith tomb.
Gaska,
I hate neocons with all my heart. I will destroy this ideology and prosecute them at home rather than export it to Europe. They belong in prison.
Catalans were begging Spain to let them vote legally for a secession. Were denied.
Why is it ok for Kosovo to unilaterally secede from Yugoslavia but not for Catalonia to be able to have a mutually agreed to referendum, #Indyref - style in Scotland in 2014?
For someone who complains about Eastern and Northern Europeans being racist towards Southern E, Gaska sounds rather hateful:
Quote: “ The American neocons have nothing to do with the Europeans. Europe does not invade countries or try to impose puppet regimes in other countries, we only defend ourselves from all those who hate us and want our destruction (which apparently are many-Islamists, Africanists, Russians, Chinese, Indians, Turks)- Neither the United States can be trusted (neocons or wokes) you are exporting an ideology destructive to Western civilization”.
———
Well, Putin purports to be the savior of old style European, traditional values.
More Gaska:
Quote - “ Moreover, the laws of purity of blood made us privileged compared to the Americans or Andalusians who could not prove that they did not have Jewish or Moorish blood.”
Your obsession with do-called “purity of blood”, esp for someone who doesn’t even speak an IE language is really appalling. FYI, Hitler would not even regard you white because your language isn’t what he used to refer to as “Aryan”. You speak an Anatolian or WHG language. Racism has no place in this forum.
It is clear that Russia didn't reached its goals, and is not up to do so. Nearly all available russian military power is in Ukraine, meaning that no reinforcements can been send. Hence why Syrians are called.
Russia is probably close to the climax, and probably will not be able to conquer more territory.
Already close to 15% of Russian troops are disabled (dead or wounded).
In the same time, general mobilization (which is perfectly normal, and was used in France, England, Germany during WW I & II) means that Ukraine will have renewed troops, and can put more than 10 times more than Russia.
Obviously, NATO is a pretext: France and Germany have vetoed Ukraine since 2008; and didn't plan to change.
And, Ukraine will probably have clearance in the next weeks to adhesion to UE (which a bigger danger to Putin than NATO).
Putin is loosing the war, and could lose, much, much more. Beginning by Belarus (Belarus army refused to take part in the invasion).
@matt You may as well say existence of prisons, and taxes, and tax funded armies, breaches self determination.
Total non sequitur. We arent talking about give and take. If you use resources of a government, you need to pay for it. Here we are talking about the existence of a particular state and you think people should be forced to support its existence with their lives. If they Ukrainian people do not wish to die for a particular state and would rather be part of Russia, or migrate, then that is exactly what self determination is.
If you instead believe that Zelensky has the authority to defend a nation that the people dont want to defend, then you cant blame Putin for establishing his authority.
Zelensky is definitely forcing people to defend his state. He even threatened to shoot foreign volunteers, whom ukraine had not investments in, if they attempt to leave. He treats his people the same way.
Do you think Zelenky can force all the refugees back to Ukraine because they threaten the demographic collapse of his country?
@east pole
You are right, Russia started and should stop, but it has gone too far now. Russians think they are right and fight for ethnic Russian lands, and they cannot stop because USA wants to destroy Russia. So probably Russia will not stop. So what will be next?
If that war spills to Poland it will be nuclear. Limited nuclear war is possible. Total nuclear war is not possible. NATO may win but Poland and Germany will be devastated.
I am not thinking about who is right and who is wrong. I want to save Poland.
In Polish interest is free Ukraine. But it is not in our interest to enter nuclear war because USA wants Ukraine to fight for Crimea and Donbas.
Ukraine will not enter the EU and will not enter NATO, because Western Europeans don’t want it, and they say it openly. So what are Ukrainians fighting for?
Let’s hope I am wrong in my fears.
By far the best take i've seen yet. Its realist and actually concerned about the people involved.
I have concluded that ph2ter comparison is not quite correct. This war is nothing like Yugoslavia
This war Putin is conducting is highly organised and efficient, despite Davidski's claims. The Russian army pins the Azov battalion in, where they have cowered in shelters amongst civillians, then send in the Chechans to liquidate them. On the other hand, the JNA was disorganized, and really didnt know what it is meant to be doing it, and the regulars didnt have their hearts in it. The fierce fighting only took over the Bosnian - Croat - Serbian militias lands because Izetbegovic refused to budge. Ph2ter is also apparently unaware of the Muslim - Croat conflict.
@Rob
This war Putin is conducting is highly organised and efficient, despite Davidski's claims.
Just in...
- Large Russian forces are surrounded and being decimated west of Kyiv
- Russia has lost its combat ability in eastern Ukraine
- Most of the Russian marine forces from the Crimea have been decimated, including in recent battles over Mariupol
So which war have you been watching?
@pnuadha, I'm pretty sure Zelensky did not threaten to shoot foreign men who tried to leave Ukraine.
@Rob wrote:
I have concluded that ph2ter comparison is not quite correct. This war is nothing like Yugoslavia
This war Putin is conducting is highly organised and efficient, despite Davidski's claims. The Russian army pins the Azov battalion in, where they have cowered in shelters amongst civillians, then send in the Chechans to liquidate them. On the other hand, the JNA was disorganized, and really didnt know what it is meant to be doing it, and the regulars didnt have their hearts in it. The fierce fighting only took over the Bosnian - Croat - Serbian militias lands because Izetbegovic refused to budge. Ph2ter is also apparently unaware of the Muslim - Croat conflict.
I am aware of everything. My comparison stands. JNA was governed by Milosevic and his generals. Very far from disorganised. And they had chetniks which is similar to the Chechens in Ukraine today.
But they have been sloppy in the same way as Russians are today. JNA capabilities have been overestimated by Western countries the same way as Russia's were before this war.
I said that Bosnia is complicated case. But nothing in Bosnia would have happened if Milošević hadn't started the war. He wanted all the territories were the Serbs lived regardless of legal boundaries of the Yugoslav Republics. The same argument Putin makes with the Russians in Ukraine. Russia is everywhere where Russians live. This is primitive.
The war is going really well for Russian officers.
Another one bites the dust in Mariupol.
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1506372126294659073
The support for Putin is simply the status quo on much of the western right, people do not question it they are no better than the "NPCs" they criticize, stubborn contrarians with no naunce.
StP, the Ashkenazic paternal haplogroup of Slavic origin isn't the Levite cluster R1a-Y2619, which is of Middle Eastern origin, but the Slavic haplogroup R1a-M12402, part of the R1a-M458 family.
In addition, the Ashkenazic maternal haplogroups H11a2a2, H11b1, V7a, and W3a1a1 probably come from Slavic women who became Jews.
On this blog, Davidski showed some time ago how the Slavic inputs in Ashkenazim are related to Poles but not Cossacks.
Zelenskyy probably has 5 to 10 percent Slavic autosomal DNA like members of my family do.
@ ph2ter
I understand what you’re saying, there are some parallels
It might seem like primitive tribalism, but the Serbs had unease about being in an independent Croat state. The last time they were in that situation- the Ustase regimen- over 100,000 Serbs and Jews were killed.
I’m sure this was trumped up by Serbian leadership at the time because it suited their purpose, but even Mesic stated that more could have been done by the Croats to alleviate these concerns and not alienate the Krajina Serbs.
But the main difference is this conflict occurred imminently during the turmoils . It would be a bit odd for Putin to copy this , 30 years after the dissolution of USSR, all the more that it wasn’t exactly a well made plan .
It’s not even clear if any of the secessions were legal because of the vague Marxist phraseology used back in the late 40s The constitution talks of “narodi” not “republiki “
@Deanno-
You don't understand what international law says, you can't "beg" to be allowed to have an independence referendum, it's simply legal or it's illegal. Each region has a different history, in the case of Scotland they were an independent kingdom from England for centuries and that is why they were able to vote. Do you think the English are going to allow it again even if the Scots voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union? How many times will they repeat the referendum? how often? until they liquidate Great Britain?
The Kingdom of Spain has not recognized Kosovo because unilateral secession is illegal.It is not only the Balkans that have problems of nationalism and secessionism. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Corsica, Basque country, Catalonia, Northern Italy, Flanders ....... The European Union can serve to avoid conflicts of this type
I suppose that if you are in favor of this type of unilateral actions you will not mind if the American states that belonged to the Viceroyalty of New Spain (Florida, Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Nuevo Méjico, California etc...) and that nowadays have a majority of Mexicans, Cubans or Latin Americans, organize referendums to separate from the United States. Would it be legal or illegal?, could they unilaterally decide the future of your nation without taking into account the opinion of the rest of their compatriots?? Would a Mexican military operation in California be justified to defend the oppressed Latino minority? Could the Cubans in Miami be self-determining? Would President Biden send in the National Guard to prevent secession? Would violence be justified to maintain territorial integrity?
@Rob:I understand what you’re saying, there are some parallels
It might seem like primitive tribalism, but the Serbs had unease about being in an independent Croat state. The last time they were in that situation- the Ustase regimen- over 100,000 Serbs and Jews were killed.
I’m sure this was trumped up by Serbian leadership at the time because it suited their purpose, but even Mesic stated that more could have been done by the Croats to alleviate these concerns and not alienate the Krajina Serbs.
But the main difference is this conflict occurred imminently during the turmoils . It would be a bit odd for Putin to copy this , 30 years after the dissolution of USSR, all the more that it wasn’t exactly a well made plan .
They were unease with an independent Croat state and they tried to destroy it by bombing Croatian cities like Vukovar, Dubrovnik, Šibenik, Zadar, Osijek, Sisak, Sl. Brod...
They bombed fascist Dubrovnik where there were no Serbs at all. Is Croatia fascist country? Who started absolutely all wars in the territory of former Yugoslavia? Was it Croatia?
The same tactics now I see in Ukraine.
Who is now fascist in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and who needs to be denazified? Russia or Ukraine?
Denazification of Croatia or Ukraine by the regimes of Russia or Serbia is nonsense.
Ustasha regime was useful for Serbian propaganda machinery which instilled fear in Croatian Serbs to subsequently instrumentalize them against Croatia. In the end, when they were no longer useful to them, they gave them up.
I am not a fan of Tudjman. Many things he could make in a much better way. But unfortunately, an extreme threat usually causes an extreme response.
@Rob
"killed between 2014-2022 by Zelenski's regimen"
But Zelensky became president of Ukraine only in 2019
"The Russian army pins the Azov battalion in, where they have cowered in shelters amongst civillians, then send in the Chechans to liquidate them"
Perhaps there have been such cases, but to know for sure, is it true or not, someone needs to provide videos from helmet cameras, drones.
As for the Chechens
“The footage and metadata show most [Chechen] forces are at least 20km [12 miles] away from the frontline, the only things they do is record videos to motivate people inside Chechnya and promote the warrior image of Kadyrov and his forces,” said Aleksandre Kvakhadze, a research fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, focused on the north Caucusus.
Kvakhadze also added:
"Many Chechens felt they were sent as cannon fodder to a badly planned war in the early days, when their heavy losses included a senior commander. Now they seem more focused on a media war, aimed at driving recruits and bolstering their leader"
Gaska wrote:
You don't understand what international law says, you can't "beg" to be allowed to have an independence referendum, it's simply legal or it's illegal. Each region has a different history, in the case of Scotland they were an independent kingdom from England for centuries and that is why they were able to vote. Do you think the English are going to allow it again even if the Scots voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union? How many times will they repeat the referendum? how often? until they liquidate Great Britain?
——————
Okay dude. Explain to me how different is it from the case in Russia and Ukraine: How come The UK and Spain are allowed an anti-democratic suppression of the right of Scots and Catalans to secede but it was perfectly “kosher” for Kosovo, historically an integral part of Serbia, to do just that!
I would like to hear loud and clear why when a majority of the population in Catalan and Scotland clamors for exercising their democratic right to become independent it’s ok, but it’s not okay for Putin to oppress Ukraine, a country that used to be a part for the Soviet Union snd the Czarist Empire before it for 350 years!
Gaska,
BTW, you sound like a White Supremacist, which is even more odd for a person who as a Basque - per Ollalde 2019 - may have 25% Steppe component - but who speaks a non-IE language. FYI, I myself don’t even consider you White for that matter. Hitler and Franco didn’t consider Basques white either.
And Basques were headed for independence until Franco came in with his troops and stopped it in its tracks,
@Folker
Judging by global firepower 2022
Active Military Manpower: Russia - 850.000; Ukraine - 200.000
Reserve Military Manpower: Russia - 250.000; Ukraine - 250.000
Paramilitary Force Strength: Russia - 250.000, Ukraine - 50.000
Military Aircraft: Russia - 4.173; Ukraine - 318
Fighter/Interceptor Strength: Russia - 772; Ukraine - 69
Military Trainer Aircraft: Russia - 522; Ukraine - 71
Helicopters Fleet: Russia - 1.543; Ukraine - 112
Attack Helicopters Fleet: Russia - 544; Ukraine 34
Tank Strength: Russia - 12.420; Ukraine 2.596
Armored Vehicle Strength: Russia - 30.122; Ukraine - 12.303
Self-Propelled Artillery + Towed Artillery +
Rocket Projector Strength: Russia - 17.536; Ukraine - 3.597
An invasion forces in Ukraine: manpower +190.000, armored carriers - 2.900, tanks - 1.200, artillery systems - 1.600, helicopters - 240, planes - 330
This is how the war is going to end:
Putin will conquer Mariupol and establish that bridge between DPR and Crimea. He may or may not proceed towards Odessa or even to link up with Russian-backed breakaway republic of Transdinstria, officially a part of Moldova, De Jure. By doing it he will effectively cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and have a Russian controlled area. Next he will declare a Crimean-style referendum in Kherson. Then he will cut a ceasefire deal with Zelensky to recognize all the conquered parts of Eastern and Southern Ukraine as an independent republic, a-la-South Ossetia. His other terms would be for Ukraine or what remains of it in the West and North to be officially “neutral”, with a smaller military and with an official status to the Russian language throughout Ukraine.
Between Russian occupied and Rest-of-Ukraine there would be a peace keeping patrol consisting of a joint UN and OSCE (the organization Russia used to intervene in Kazakhstan recently).
Can anyone in his right mind inform me what exactly is Julian Assange doing sitting in a British prison awaiting extradition to the USA for?
What’s the difference between Assange and Navalny?
I have serious doubts that Putin will conquer Mariupol. And even if he does, he won't be able to hold it for long.
Putin getting Odessa looks like a total fantasy.
The Russian army is close to collapse. That's why it's scratching around for mercenaries from Syria, Libya, etc.
@Deanno-
It's unbelievable, you have understood absolutely nothing, try reading this again, maybe it will help you. “I have to remind you that countries’ sovereignty, political independence, and territorial integrity are widely recognized principles, enshrined in the United Nations Charter. There is a clear prohibition on the threat or use of force between states, other than as authorized by the Security Council or for purposes of the right of self-defense “if an armed attack occurs”. A narrow understanding of anticipatory self-defense against an imminent armed attack has also been accepted by some international lawyers and policymakers as falling within the self-defense justification, as has a concept of protection of nationals abroad (for instance, in cases of hostage taking). None of the justifications offered by President Putin for the invasion of Ukraine — including protecting Russia from NATO’s eastern expansion or protection of ethnic Russians from alleged oppression by the Ukrainian government — could conceivably be understood as falling within the self-defense exception. No less problematic is Putin’s assertion that he is now coming to the aid of two republics in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine that Russia has recognized as independent in recent days. The right of peoples to self-determination is a fundamental right under international law. That means that any Russian ethnic minority in Ukraine has a right to determine its political status and pursue its economic, social, and cultural development. Yet, there is no right to unilaterally secede from a state and form a separate state. In recognition of states’ right to preserve their territorial integrity, secession is allowed only in extreme cases of repeated oppression or subjugation of the minority, leaving it with no other option to exercise “internal self-determination” in a meaningful way. International lawyers call this “remedial secession.”
@Deanno said-“I myself don’t even consider you white for that matter (Basque-25% Steppe component)"
Ha Ha Ha Ha, This is one of the best sentences I have read on this blog, I would like to know exactly your criteria for considering a person as belonging to the white race. It would be fascinating if you could share your thoughts with us.
@Deanno said-“ Hitler and Franco didn’t consider Basques white either”-
Sorry, this one's even better-Ha Ha Ha
@Deanno said “And Basques were headed for independence until Franco came in with his troops and stopped it in its tracks”
Ha Ha Ha, you need help, you can't say so much nonsense with so few words.
We would all like to know your opinion about the possible independence of California, Florida, Texas, New Mexico, etc. I'm sure you have interesting ideas on the subject.
Looks like that ethnic Tuvan, General Shoigu, is missing. No one has seen him for 2 weeks. Who the hell thought it was a bright idea to place a guy with no military experience whatsoever in charge of an invasion of this scale?
I agree with Davidski. This has turned into a quagmire of epic proportions for Putin and Russia after just 1 month. Here in the United States we transport hundreds of thousands of troops along with heavy artillery, tanks, helicopters, armored personnel carriers, and just about anything else you can think think of, halfway around the earth (largely by air) and ready for action in the war zone. Fuel, food, water and all the bare essentials in position and ready to go. Russia can’t even move their own shit in an organized manner across a shared border into Ukraine. Logistics are HUGE in any large scale conflict. As already mentioned in the thread, frantically bringing in troops from Syria, Chechnya, and eastern Russia (Buryats) is indicative of a sinking ship. The west, after being threatened with nuclear annihilation, has done an excellent job supplying and resupplying the Ukrainian militias with weapons, ammo, etc. Hopefully we’ll keep it up and provide the Ukrainians with the necessary tools to take out those Russian warships in the Black Sea that are targeting civilians in Mariupol.
Beyond that, I think the future of the Russian state and its current borders are now in question. China endorsed this Russian invasion from the very beginning. Xi even knew it was coming after having Putin as a special guest during opening ceremonies for the Winter Games in Beijing. Both were banking on a quickie in Ukraine. Well that sure as hell didn’t go to plan. Now the Chinese are back tracking and are, at least publicly, trying to appear more neutral. This is because if the Russian state should collapse as a result of this attack in Ukraine, there is a very real chance that the US moves into eastern Siberia via Alaska and secures that territory as far as the Yenisei. That would be total nightmare for China.
One day China will invade Siberia to "protect" all the ethnic Chinese that it's sent there the last decade.
Strange friendship China and Russia, or is Russia just making bigger and better deals with the devil to delay the inevitable?
@Draft Dozen
This is absolute numbers (estimates) before the war began. As you said, Russian troops in Ukraine are estimated to less than 200k (including policemen and conscripts). This is all Russia could send, as you always need to keep some troops available (in case of attack on another front, rebellion...).
Ukraine has declared mobilization of all men between 18 and 60 (effective in no more than 90 days). It is meaning that your numbers don't apply anymore. In several weeks, Ukraine army will be made of millions of soldiers (I don't know how many men between 18/60 live in Ukraine, but with a population of around 40 millions, it's at least several millions).
BTW Russians troops have already lose around 40k men:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-23/card/russia-lost-up-to-40-000-troops-in-ukraine-nato-estimates-xyZjWxinMDHzdeRZvAeD
Russia simply can't win with conventionnal warfare.
@Rob
All those countries are part of UE or candidates. Bigger community than your proposal, but it is one.
@Deanno
Perhaps Russians will conquer Mariupol, but they will have difficulties to keep it. Like in 2014.
They have difficulties to keep control Kherson, and could lose it in the next weeks.
BTW, could be propaganda, but given the needs of Russian troops, and the impossibility to provide some from Russia (as "there is no war in Ukraine" but a limited "military operation"):
https://kyivindependent.com/national/russia-throws-untrained-civilians-from-occupied-donbas-into-hot-spots-of-its-war-in-ukraine/
Putin is likely to put max pressure to Lukashenko on entering the war, but he is probably too afraid of a military coup d'etat to do so (at this moment).
This probably represents a delineation between Europe and Russia in terms of spheres & civilizations, broadly against the emergence of a more multi-polar Global dynamic. Perhaps even a period of stasis or devolution. Socially, the world has been a bit lame for 2 decades
This is hilarious.
Russian television announced recently that a huge ship was going to arrive in a port near Mariupol with loads of ammo and other stuff.
Right after the ship pulled into harbor and was being unloaded, a Ukrainian ballistic missile blew it up, and probably damaged two other Russian ships.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506926803868340228
100% confirmed via many different sources.
Not coïncidental announcement:
https://rmx.news/france/with-eye-on-russia-france-successfully-tests-updated-nuclear-capable-supersonic-missile/
France has successfully tested the upgraded version of its ASMPA supersonic nuclear missile, the country’s Defense Minister Florence Parly announced on Wednesday.
The frenche hypersonic missile V-MAX is expected to be tested in the next weeks/months (it was expected for 2022 even before the war)
The use of ballictic missiles by Ukrainians means that they are counter attacking, and propably were given new stocks by "non belligerant" countries.
@Sam Elliott: "Who the hell thought it was a bright idea to place a guy with no military experience whatsoever in charge of an invasion of this scale?"
That's kind of seems like the autocrat's problem though, isn't it? If they're to hold power over the long term, they must surround themselves with mediocrities, either by limiting their education or knowledge or choosing people of innately less talent, so that they don't get usurped by their inner circle who think they'd be better suited to rule. Or else they have to ensure higher and higher payoffs to competent men that end up draining away the country's resources. Putin has some problems with both. (The Chinese Emperors often favoured dumber eunuchs who had access due to running the harem, and isolated intelligent scholar-officials from each other and power, for these kind of reasons).
And this gets worse if, like Putin, they're aging and suffering from Parkinson's disease and becoming kind of isolated and getting these Howard Hughes-like obsessions ("Russians and Ukrainians are one people!", "Copy things the Americans did during invasions to rub their nose in it, even if its strategically dumb!") are all coming into play. Autocracy's advantages in long term planning are offset by the decline in leaders over time.
The better case for autocracy is when you have a man who comes to power fairly young (as far as is possible), is much more brilliant than his peers, and is disciplined by international markets and such to be relatively sensible and to avoid visible and obvious corruption. That's Lee Kew Yuan, but that's the best case. And that best case is still not even really particularly good compared to other outcomes for Han Chinese in East Asia. While Putin is on the other hand not particularly brilliant (smarter than average we must admit, yes), came to power middle-aged, has declined in health and ability, has a bunch of kooky grievances, and has been aided by the financial power of Russia's oil and gas (and their nuclear stockpile) to do stupid things.
(Not that democracy doesn't still have some of these flaws, but to a lesser degree, and the system inhibits building too much around the competence of powerful men anyway. Compared to Russia, the problems US has are more to do with hubris generally - being too powerful to get slapped back reality - and less to do with systematically promoting idiots to protect the leader. Although it must be admitted Russia has a lot of hubris and the US still a lot of incompetents).
@Rob I agree with most of your comments. I do think that hostilities in Yugoslavia might have been prevented if all Peoples and not just Republics had the right to cecede from Yugoslavia, which is what Milosevic had to Tudjman & Kucan
That was precisely the cause of war. Milošević promoted exactly such interpretation of the Constitution. But that was wrong, because the borders of the Republics and Autonomous provinces was possible to change only by mutual agreement. The unilateral changes of borders to the detriment of other Republics was not allowed by the Constitution.
The right of people to secede cannot work without territories. The right to secession can only be given to the federal units, not people. The people can exercise their right only in their federal units.
@Kevin Brook: StP, the Ashkenazic paternal haplogroup of Slavic origin isn't the Levite cluster R1a-Y2619, which is of Middle Eastern origin, but the Slavic haplogroup R1a-M12402, part of the R1a-M458 family.
Essentially all authentic Levites and priests/kohanim Ashkenazi belong to the genetic haplogroup R1a-Z93…>Y2619
And this haplogroup is from: Palestina < Iran < Central Asia < Europe < Near-Carpathia <Dnieper(?) origin
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5668307/
If there are descendants of the Haplogroup M458 or Z280, then due to special events, which insurance companies call "accidents at work"
( Ashkenazi mothers in Central and Eastern Europe are indeed European, especially Slavic.)
Which is the criterion that Gaska uses to justify Kosovo, an integral part of Serbia, to secede?
Yet, there is no right to unilaterally secede from a state and form a separate state. In recognition of states’ right to preserve their territorial integrity, secession is allowed only in extreme cases of repeated oppression or subjugation of the minority, leaving it with no other option to exercise “internal self-determination” in a meaningful way. International lawyers call this “remedial secession.”
@Davidski
Haha! That's terrific.
Nothing pleases me more than seeing mad Vlad eat shit. What a pathetic showing from the Russian war machine.
Slava Ukraini!
@ ph2ter
' That was precisely the cause of war. Milošević promoted exactly such interpretation of the Constitution. But that was wrong, because the borders of the Republics and Autonomous provinces was possible to change only by mutual agreement. The unilateral changes of borders to the detriment of other Republics was not allowed by the Constitution.''
Obviously that was a major issue. However
(i) in the first place, secession apparently required agreement amongst all the Republics not unilateral proclamations
(ii) the Serbs did not care about Slovenia or Macedonia because there were < 5% Serbs in those Republics, hence they could not make any claims nor did they action anything in those regions (beyond the initial customs/ barracks issue in Slovenia)
(iii) by contrast 1/3 of Bosnia and a majority in certain administrative distriicts of the Krajina had a Serb majority.
(iv) although many Croatian Serbs were in fact initially supportive of increased Croat indepedence, within the context of a confederacy, this eroded due to (i) the exclusive 'Croatness'' of the new Croat state (ii) the return of right wing Croatian diaspora (from Argentina, Austrlia, Canada) during the independence movement (iii) the aligning of Croatia with Germany (iv) Serb nationalist rhetoric with regard to (i) & (iii).
(iv) Tudjman employed double standards. He proclaimed tha Croatia was indivisible, but had secretly met with Molosevic to divide Bosnia between them
(v) if the republic’s had existed as independent Nations before Union with Yugoslavia, then their indivisibility could be all the more understood. But they had been created within Yugoslavia, although of course they were based on ‘ancient nations”
(vi) today, Bosnia remains a tense, divided, essentially ruled by the West, and tensions are yet again rising, The individibility has failed
Continued peaceful multiethnicity would have been nice of course, but in hindsight if the politicians were able to agree to a slight re-drawing of the map, then conflict would have been avoided. The evidence for that is (ii) & (vi). Although how this was to be actioned would be difficult , because of mixed villages etc
A historical precedent is West Virginia, which split from Virginia because the latter was loyalist.
@Deanno: “ secession is allowed only in extreme cases of repeated oppression or subjugation of the minority, leaving it with no other option”
You made that up.
Right at the beginning if the United Nations charter it states without ambiguity.
*“All peoples have the right to self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.” *
All actually means all: not just presently-existing States.
It also specifies in the charter that this right is notwithstanding that it is the nature of a State to deny an emerging polity legitimacy.
Putin was speaking on Russian TV again. He was talking about Harry Potter.
@Rob (i) in the first place, secession apparently required agreement amongst all the Republics not unilateral proclamations
The Constitution was undefined about this. But federal units were not one over the other. They were equal. What right can some federal unit have over the other?
JNA was not some overpower over the Republics. Without delegation of the military power to JNA from the seceding Republic, JNA looses the legal right to intervene.
@Rob (ii) the Serbs did not care about Slovenia or Macedonia because there were < 5% Serbs in those Republics, hence they could not make any claims nor did they action anything in those regions (beyond the initial customs/ barracks issue in Slovenia)
(iii) by contrast 1/3 of Bosnia and a majority in certain administrative distriicts of the Krajina had a Serb majority.
That couldn't have had any impact on the secession. The Serb rights were thought to be consumed inside the Republics, not on the federal level. And the Serbs did not have any autonomous provinces in Bosnia and Croatia.
@Rob (iv) although many Croatian Serbs were in fact initially supportive of increased Croat indepedence, within the context of a confederacy, this eroded due to (i) the exclusive 'Croatness'' of the new Croat state (ii) the return of right wing Croatian diaspora (from Argentina, Austrlia, Canada) during the independence movement (iii) the aligning of Croatia with Germany (iv) Serb nationalist rhetoric with regard to (i) & (iii).
All that was provoked by Milošević.
@Rob (iv) Tudjman employed double standards. He proclaimed tha Croatia was indivisible, but had secretly met with Molosevic to divide Bosnia between them
I am not supportive of Tudjman actions in Bosnia.
@Rob (v) if the republic’s had existed as independent Nations before Union with Yugoslavia, then their indivisibility could be all the more understood. But they had been created within Yugoslavia, although of course they were based on ‘ancient nations”
It doesn't matter how they have been created.
@Rob (vi) today, Bosnia remains a tense, divided, essentially ruled by the West, and tensions are yet again rising, The individibility has failed
Bosnia is not ruled by the West. It is divided and dysfunctional country in status quo.
@ Davidski another one. Lt. Yakov Ryatzantsev killed at the Chornobaivka airfield just north of Kherson.
Is this seven now? (Apart from Naval and Air commanders, Lt. colonels etc.)
These officers’ families will be overjoyed to hear that most of their husbands & fathers heroically laid down their lives for a bit of gameplaying diversionary action, given that Putin all along was actually just after Donbas…
Post a Comment