Saturday, March 12, 2022
Lousy intel
I don't like discussing current events and politics here, but it's impossible to ignore what is happening in Eastern Europe.
It's a tragedy and catastrophe for both Ukraine and Russia. It's also likely to have a negative impact on ancient DNA research, Indo-European studies, and thus also on this blog.
I'm seeing a lot of confusion online about why Russia invaded Ukraine, but I don't think it's very complicated.
After getting the better of the West in recent years, Russia finally overreached and made a massive tactical blunder, in large part because of lousy intel. More broadly, I also see this as the Soviet Union's dead cat bounce moment.
Russia will now have to reinvent itself, possibly as China's junior partner or even vassal state.
As for the "special military operation", Russia's initial plan was to achieve a quick, relatively bloodless victory, followed by a military parade in Kyiv. But obviously that's not going to happen.
Russia's back up plan, if we can call it that, seems to be to keep pushing into Ukraine at any cost, and hope that the Ukrainians finally tap out. But right now that looks like a long shot.
See also...
Matters of geography
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668 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 401 – 600 of 668 Newer› Newest»Davidski - i wonder if Poland will eventually annex, or exert a profound sphere of influence, over part of west Ukraine.
Bell Beaker Blogger- I guess China seems more attractive to Russia than the west. of course, the Russians had a good trade deal with Germany, Scandinavia, its protoges in the Balkans, but I think that understandably made some countries in the middle uneasy.
I think that's a sad turn of events but it's where its at
@Rob
Poland doesn't annex land from neighboring countries. We're not Russia.
And Ukraine is about to join the EU anyway, so there won't be a border between Poland and Ukraine.
I meant as a sort of protectorate
Bullshit
"We Poles do not annex" -- I thought you were Aussie, David? And how is that you understand supposed radio recordings of Russia soldiers or Putin's speeches?
@Spy
The wonders of the internet.
It's a pity that Putin didn't know about the internet before he made his decision to invade Ukraine.
It could've saved him some trouble.
The Eneolithic cemetery at Khvalynsk on the Volga River
David W. Anthony, A. A. Khokhlov, S. A. Agapov, D. S. Agapov, R. Schulting, I. Olalde and D. Reich
https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/pz-2022-2034/html
https://youtu.be/TtdWbZ-iO1I
This is an interesting take by Jimmy Dore, an Irish/ Polish background American comedian
For a more serious discussion
https://youtu.be/T6mw9U62ZJU
This is a much better overall analysis of the situation in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1507664862456942593
Jimmy Dore is a contrarion idiot, to consider his views to be interesting does not reflect well.
Is Meirsheimer also a contrarian idiot ? In the western world, many are questioning the narrative of the prelude to war whilst unanimously condemning the act itself.
Beyond our western sphere, the world does not buy the Anglo-American dictation anymore. It’s something our politicians need to get used to
These things aren’t even denied. “Fuck the EU” said Nuland
It would be idiocy to unquestionably swallow what the media tells us, especially when many of you here have spent the last several years lamenting the state of its veracity.
The real idiocy is to seek out idiots to believe and ignore the real world.
You’re upset, and that’s understandable. But it also explains why you don’t make any sense
What I’ve outlined is the realpolitik of the situation the world is in. It’s not support of Putin or ignoring the human suffering
This is what our host stated was the purpose of this thread
@Rob
NATO is not a threat Russia. None of the NATO members has any interest in attacking Russia. Not even the USA or Poland.
You know this, right?
Of course, Russia has incurred significant political and economic costs from NATO's inclusion of many former Eastern Block countries.
NATO's expansion means that Russia can no longer realistically threaten these countries with any sort of military action, and so it has much less ability to influence them politically and economically.
But this is very different from NATO and its expansion being an existential threat to Russia, and it can't excuse in any way Russia's behavior towards Ukraine.
Also, you're missing or ignoring the fact that Ukraine is very special to Russia, not only due to is geography and thus military strategy, but because Russians see Ukrainians as "Little Russians".
And, of course, if these Little Russians are allowed to do what they please, then the so called Great Russians might get some strange ideas too.
See that's the main reason why Russian-speaking cities Kharkiv and Mariupol are now post-apocalyptic wrecks.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1508162436280504335
Sure, that could be a major factor currently.
@Rob,
From my youth I had a great aversion to communism, which was a tragic "gift" from Russia.
But I had a natural sympathy for Russians as people and Slavs (the R1a family)
In my psyche, the Slavs are generally peaceful, non-aggressive, anti-colonial people.
This image of the Slavs, however, did not fit well with Russia's aggressiveness and imperialist possessiveness.
This fact irritated me very much against the background of the image of the Slavs.
Even worse, a Russian professor explained to me on the forum that Stalin had the right to organize a genocide for Poles in Katyn, because Poles should know about the rights of the imperial state and submit to it.
So how happy I was now, when I summarized the autosomal IBD (sergments of DNA identical by descents) on the basis of the tables by G. Khvorykh (2020) and it turned out that the Slavic countries among the relatives' populations almost do not have Russia even in the sixth or seventh place. So Putin completely mistakenly attacked the Ukrainians as allegedly close, disobedient to the Russians!
Russia will be an ulcer and a foreign body for the peoples of this geographical region for many centuries.
http://www.tropie.tarnow.opoka.org.pl/Slowianie-i-Baltowie-w-Europie.pdf
@ Davidski
That might be an element. There are various dimensions to the narrative and identity making in this conflict.
As I said previously, this is a battle over Ukraine . Goes back to 2014, 2004, and even well back to the 20th century ( the Eastwood march of USA, ongoing Cold War., Lack of reprieve for Russia.)
It’s very difficult to see the expansion of NATO encirclement of Russia a benevolent, friendly thing. If the west was arming Ukraine, then its de facto part of NATO.
Putin does not see the current government is legitimate. He sees it as result of the CIA , Soros & Kolomosly backed coup , armed up by USA .
If China or Russia had pulled something similar off in Mexico would be in the same situation
@Rob
NATO's legal expansion is a cost to Russia (because Russia likes to bully its smaller neighbors to get what it wants).
But it's not a threat to Russia.
So it can't be used as an excuse for what Russia is doing to Ukraine, which is totally illegal.
Putin doesn't really care about the EU per se. He was happily selling his resources to them, hence they are not a threat to his interests. Analysists (rather than journalists & politicians) do not see Putin wanting or being even remotely able to reconstitute the old USSR. He wouldnt be able to get past Poland, let alone all of Europe. I don't think he was worried or jealous about how wealthy Ukraine was going to get by joining the EU either, again, refer to what's happened in Greece. The pre-western segments of Ukraine were the poorest parts. So that arguement doesn;t hold either
The issue as Russia sees it, is the continued encroachment of USA-sphere of influence toward the east. The early 2000s talk of an apparent NATO-Russia ssociation did not blossom because Russia would not accept the power differentials USA imposes ('youre either with us or against us"). Moreover, by putting up military bases along the Russian border is perceived as a threat. They have consistently ppointed this out. In theory, Russia & China could establish bases in Mexico care of a friendly regimen and say they pose no threat to Washington, but Im not sure how well they'd be believed
Things deteriorated rapidly in 2014- several issue culminated at this time, incl. the Syria conflict (backing oppositional factions), and then spilling into the Ukraine theatre. Putin saw the CIA-instigated (with Soros & Kolomonskiy) Coup in Ukraine, instillation of an openly hostile government and the provision of military equipment a clear intent of confrontation.
Obviously, most of the EU was against these actions, but obviously some anti-Russian lobbbies and personel were active in promulgated it.
This does't change the fact his actions are causing destruction and suffering of Ukrainian peopl. But that is the background. In turn, Europe is re-militarizing and the world has become further polarised.
The issue with NATO and EU expansion is that Russia is losing power, influence and money, and it's being humiliated.
That's why it's lashing out, and not because of any real military threat against it.
Some, like you, see this as a natural reaction by Russia due to a legitimate grievance (but they still get it wrong when they say Russia is threatened by NATO).
But let's be honest, if Russia's neighbors don't want much to do with it, then that's their choice, and they have the right to join any alliance they like.
@ Davidski
Russia's GDP has been increasing since 1990, despite the break up of USSR and enlargement of EU
I'm not ware of any discourse about humiliation or lamenting the collapse of USSR. We have to recall that the group which most suffered under Stalin was Russian themselves
In Putin's ego, he sees himself as a Neo-Tsar, not restoring Communism.
''when that's their choice, and they have the right to join any alliance they like.''
Yes in theory, but it's in reality a delicate balance. As pointed out by several commentators above, unchecked & uneccessary expansion, under questionable tenets, can be destabilizing. This has been pointed out repeatedly by western political scientists and cold-war veterans. This doesn't make them Putin-apologists, isolationists or contrarians
And Im not intending to be overly critical of USA either, it is a superpower exercising its influence. Rome did it, like any past ancient superpower. But it's no secret how the CIA operates
Does this justify what Russia is doing ? No not in any way. But we have learned something
@ StP
It seems that Russians are currently the naughty, exiled children, rather than Custodians of Slavs.
@Rob
The problem with Russia is that it thinks it's still a superpower, and expects to be treated as such.
The West was prepared to play along with that to some degree, but I guess not any longer.
Russia really doesn't have much of a future after this war.
@Rob,
Weakening the EU is Putin's primary foreign policy objective.
Well, he has achieved the opposite.
In any case, this is not exclusively Putin's goal, the Trump administration and the Brexiters would be delighted to see the collapse of the EU. Brussels has to realize that it is better to be alone than in bad company.
As I see the situation we are reaching a dead end, because Putin cannot afford a failure without losing absolutely the little international prestige he has, and the European Union (also NATO) cannot allow the partition of Ukraine.
That’s true; whatever his perceived grievances his actions consolidated Europe, destroyed Ukrainian lives & sent Russia backward
Russian forces are now retreating from Kyiv and Kharkiv after getting pounded there over the last few days.
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1508793606261420036
No doubt, those asshats will still try to secure the Donbass, but they won't be able to do even that if Ukraine doesn't agree to a ceasefire.
Conventional warfare has changed forever, tanks and armored vehicles are no longer operational in the face of new military technology. The Ukrainians do not need tanks and planes to stop the Russians. It seems incredible.
Anti ICBM rocket shield development will now speed up, and that is a good thing.
@Rob
"If the west was arming Ukraine, then its de facto part of NATO."
Well, does Ukraine attack anything on Russian soil? No? That settles it, doesn't it. NATO is defensive.
@Davidski
"Russian forces are now retreating from Kyiv and Kharkiv after getting pounded there over the last few days.
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1508793606261420036"
Ukrainian forces should try and cut retreat lines as much as possible. That is what the Finnish troops did in the Winter War: Motti warfare.
A superior army will not notice quickly when they are trapped. Hubris will prevent that. This is how you fight asymmetric warfare as Martin van Creveld already described: Force them in difficult terrain that you know, then keep ambushing them. Ukraine flooded the areas north of Kiev so it should be possible.
@Rob wrote: It seems that Russians are currently the naughty, exiled children, rather than Custodians of Slavs.
Russians „Custodians of Slavs"?
But I personally witnessed how the Russians took the "custodians" of the Polish Slavs. In my town, after the escape of the Germans, and two days before the passage of a unit of Russian soldiers, two Russian officials lived with our neighbors indefinitely. First, they probed who to recommend to be the head of the village, who should be given weapons for the elimination of "village bellies" (which, by the way, were not present with us), and who was to be the secretary of the party unit, etc.
My father got a sack of rye flour (old and already smelly, but they ate it too), they gave them a device and told my father to make them… moonshine.
So they worked "sober", noting who their friends were and who was not, because they would need it in two or three years ...
Once, when I was guarding barley sheaves from sparrows flocks, these two were passing me by, so I cried out of fear, one of them gave me a toy: a brass ball that had fallen off my neighbor's oven.
Probably after a few days they had to go to another town so that they could establish the power there as well.
All in all - such agents of the Russian power often went in front of the army. Because that was what it was about.
@Davidski
Is Ukraine's proposal to involve the Security Council in its security good?
So far it has not really shown any decision-making power, and it is always paralyzed by the veto of one person!
Moreover, the group of guarantors cannot be too large, as this may only make it difficult to make a quick defensive decision in the event of an attack as sudden as the Russian one.
And will Russia accept Poland?
Back to adna for a second, apparently Anthony's new paper looking to summarize the "state of play" around Khvalynsk cemetaries, translating and gathering from the Russian, and introducing some new genetic results at the same time has leaked information about y haplogroups from upcoming Sredny Stog ssample set:
"But neither R1b Z-2108 nor its immediate ancestral forms are found among sampled Sredni Stog males, most of whom belonged to the R1a or I haplogroups, unlike Volga males. The sampled Sredni Stog populations included individuals who autosomally resembled Yamnaya a millennium before the Yamnaya culture appeared." (which would suggest dates for these samples of approx 4500-4000 BCE, overlapping closely with Steppe_Eneolithic from Progress and Vonyuchka, and slightly later than it seems the date given most of the upcoming Khvalynsk samples, possibly placing them at Sredni-Stog II) "But within that population the Yamnaya Y-haplogroup patriline evolved in a region that has not been sampled."
So that's somewhat inconsistent with the idea that Eneolithic SS were dominated by pre-Yamnaya lines, which were derived from somewhere to the west, as part of a founder effect which also introduced a pastoral economy. (Male founders from the west, but massive admixture with Steppe_Eneolithic which replaced any autosomal trace). If the pre-R1b-M269 line entered SS with the emergence of the pastoral economy, it didn't wipe the slate of y-dna clean or must have come with other non-R1b-M269 groups (which is not ruled out of course).
They might have some pre-R1a-M417 though, on the bright side. Though Anthony didn't indicate it.
(The 23 Khvalyansk male samples specified by Anthony are 65% R1b, 22% Q1, 4% J1, 4% R1a, 4% I2a. Though there could be some consideration that these are not independent and sampled from family cemetaries).
@StP
Russia doesn't have a choice, because it has no leverage.
I expect that there will be a few key guarantors, like Poland and the UK, who will be tasked specifically with closing the Ukrainian sky in case of any Russian aggression.
And then the new, even more effectively armed Ukrainian defense force will do the rest.
Realistically though, it's hard to imagine Russia trying to invade anyone for the next 50 years after this debacle, if there's even a small chance of resistance.
“ which were derived from somewhere to the west, as part of a founder effect which also introduced a pastoral economy. (Male founders from the west, but massive admixture with Steppe_Eneolithic which replaced any autosomal trace)”
Yeah that’s what I proposed after Mathieson et al came out after rationalising the ydna & autosomic data , and on a more comical level the “progress_EN red herring”
@ StP- I must admit I am less aware of Soviet abuses because my grandparents’ generation of partisans told Stalin to bugger off in 1948 already
@Matt, Anthony had already anticipated the results of Khvalynsk, but now we know them in detail. Some of its uniparental markers passed to Yamnaya and mainland europe (V1636, I2aL699, Q1, several mtDNA), but it was clear that M269*>L51 was not there either. It is not in Ukraine either because the data we have from the Mesolithic and Dnieper-Donets are V88, I2a, R1a....... It does not have its origin in Anatolia/Caucasus-Iran because there is no trace of that lineage in the cultures of southern or northern Caucasus-Maykop (J2a, T, L....). The oldest EHG we have are not R1b either, so the remaining options are few.....
region that has not been sampled.? which one?. Which culture occupied the forest steppe between 4.000 and 3,000 BC? Sredni Stog?
In my opinion the solution may be further north, hence the Narva signal in early CWC
Baltic and Scandinavians-HGs>Bohemians-L151
@Rob, yes I was thinking of that but didn't want to name you specifically in case it seemed like "calling you out" or mischaracterized your idea. What are your thoughts around this evidence (assuming I've interpreted the excerpt right)?
@Gaska, I still think it's hard to draw a conclusion like that. We will see what happens.
@Matt
Something like this?
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2015/12/mixed-marriages-on-early-eneolithic.html
By the way, it looks like we've got another 4-6 weeks of the war left, with Russia now moving, reorganizing and resupplying the forces that it has left for this fight.
As far as I know, that's well over 75% of its total conventional combat resources.
So the biggest battles of the war are yet to come, and they'll be the biggest battles in Europe since the Second World War.
They'll be fought in eastern Ukraine, where Russia will try to surround Ukrainian forces and then occupy and eventually annex a lot of land.
Russia, or at least Putin's Russia, is fighting for its life now, that's why it's not giving up. But it won't win.
Interesting times.
The Russian-Ukrainian war confirms that the Russian army is not an army, it is a gang of moral freaks,nazis, looters and rapists. In principle, like most Russians who support this war and their leader-maniac and pedophile Putin.
@Rob wrote: I must admit I am less aware of Soviet abuses because my grandparents’ generation of partisans told Stalin to bugger off in 1948 already.
In Poland, early, brave people told Stalin "to piss off", but many of them "disappeared" somewhere and their bones cannot be found to this day. When at school I refused to join the communist youth union and join the school's Polish-Soviet Friendship Society, I was immediately announced twice and publicly announced (as a 15-year-old boy!) Agent of Anglo-American Imperialism. Then my friends in the boarding school every morning checked whether I was still among them, or in the Arctic Kolyma or the Siberian Vorkuta.
(Fun fact. When I was enrolled in the PSFS/TPPR and made chairman of the school circle, I protested and asked my teacher to sign me out. He replied that it was impossible anymore, because the list of members had been ... sent to Stalin to the Kremlin! Thus I became a lifelong member of the now defunct Kremlin Society and Agent A-A imperialism!)
@ Matt
I haven’t read it yet but looks interesting in that apparently it’s served as a burial ground for various groups of people. And hence that might explain the phenomenon of CHG rich
However we would also need additional samples from regions further west
@Rob wrote: I must admit I am less aware of Soviet abuses.
This is not an "abuse", but a rule of imperial geopolitics of Tuchaczevski (1920), of Stalin, Dugin and Putin: „what is friendly - to enabsorb; what is resistant - to annihilate!”
On Poland gen.TUCHACZEVSKI (1920): „Over the corpses of Poland to the fire of world revolution”.
On Chechnya, Alexander DUGIN advised Putin, and Putin realized it:
– „привлечение на свою сторону тех сил, которые были менее всего связаны с внешними атлантистскими центрами управления (во главе лояльной России администрации Чечни )”.
– „радикальное уничтожение всех вооруженных формирований сепаратистов и подавление всех очагов сопротивления с целью установления полного контроля над всей территорией Чечни и возврата пространства Республики в административную зону российского управления”.
On Poland an Ukraine A.Dugin (1998) „Russia, in its geopolitical and sacred-geographic development, is not interested in the existence of an independent Polish state in any form. It is also not interested in the existence of Ukraine. Not because we don't like Poles or Ukrainians, but because these are the laws of sacred geography and geopolitics. /…/ In this great clash of Atlantic civilization and Eurasian culture, everything that lies between us - Poland, Ukraine, Central Europe... must disappear, be absorbed."
Putin/Ławrov: "The right to sovereignty should be respected only in relation to states that represent the entire nation living on its territory, and Ukraine is not such a state"
Putin: “Ukraine is not only a neighboring country for us. It is an integral part of our own history, culture, and spiritual space. " "Russians and Ukrainians are one nation - one whole" "Because we are one people".
(We are, that is, we will restore this unity by force, and if we do not succeed, we will crush you. Yes?)
Bronze and Iron Age population movements underlie Xinjiang population history
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk1534
https://phys.org/news/2022-03-year-population-history-xinjiang-brought.html
Some have interesting Y-DNA:
https://i.postimg.cc/66zBJwH8/screenshot-141.png
So did they finally find evidence of actual Afanasievo ancestry in the Bronze Age or Iron Age Tarim Basin? Like Z2103?
Let's keep in mind that Xinjiang is more than just the Tarim Basin.
@Rob
Kale has posted on Anthrogenica that Karelia HG and Motala likely have Boisman_MN (EDAR, mtDNA C) related ancestry. He states that EHG in general has something like this, as do both Botai and WSHG. Is this Gravettian-related, ANE, excess Tianyuan/AR33K/Salkhit, or is it real? This is the first time I’ve heard of such a thing, in fact, I thought that the first sign of ancestry like this in Eastern Europe, was via Steppe Maykop. I recall David saying on Anthrogenica, that such a component appeared much later in Eastern Europe (the comment was in relation to the first signals of Uralic-like, East Asian/Siberian admixture). MtDNA C1 subcaldes have formation dates of 17800-18000 BCE, so I’m not so sure as to where it came from. Perhaps C1 and EDAR came from the IUP/proto-East Eurasian/Tianyuan-like part of ANE/ANS?
@Davidski
They barely have any samples from Tocharian speaking territories. A lot of the samples come from the Ili valley which is north of the Tarim Basin and was inhabited by nomads such as the Saka. Several samples from northern Dzungaria also. They do have samples from Zaghunluq which is Cherchen Man's site which is interesting, but I'm not sure if this is dataset that will give us a clear view of the origins of Tocharian.
Cherchen Man's genome would be really cool.
@Davidski, attribute 6x new samples to Afanasievo material culture. 3 are R1b1a1b1a1, 1 is Q2a (not Q1b as was found among the Afanasievo family at the Yenisei), 1 is an unadmixed Inner North East Asian outlier with C2a1 (as was previously found in both respects at another site in Mongolia) and one is female. Of these, only one sample, a male with R1b1a1b1a1, is best modelled as having unadmixed ancestry from the main Afanasievo cluster previously known. (This sample they label Xinj_BA5_oSte). The R1b samples are from the west of the region (at site Nileke).
Most of the other 5 samples they model (3/5, or 3/4 excluding the East Asian outlier) are modelled in a cluster called Xinj_BA4, which they model as about 70% Afanasievo with the remaining 25% primarily Tarim_EMBA mummies (the ANE rich isolated population) and some Inner North East Asian (from Shamanka site). The remaining sample (an R1b1a1b male) is placed in a Xinj_BA3 cluster, which is modelled similarly but with higher Tarim_EMBA+Shamanka. They would probably theorize that this relates to Afanasievo absorbtion of other populations either in situ or elsewhere.
@Davidksi
Do you have any thoughts on Kale’s results? Or do you think we just don’t have enough data to say? I remember one of the East Asian DNA papers claiming there was ANS in some of their Jomon specimens. Perhaps there is some IUP/proto-East Eurasian, Tianyuan thing going around in all of these samples.
@Simon
There might be some sort of clinal relationship between EHG and East Asians via the Arctic, but I doubt there's actual East Asian ancestry in EHG.
@Matt
Do you have a handy map of the location(s) of those Afanasievo-related samples in Xinjiang/Dzungaria?
No, sorry, I just looked them up in the supplements. I'll have a look in the supplementary files as soon as. They usually have lat and long for sites in the supplementary spreadsheet.
@ Simon S
Isn't that old news ? (although it needn't be specifically Boisman_MN)
As the climate got better, once separated HG populations re-connected via a series of intermediaries. We also have 'eastern mtDNA' R1b in Karelia and KO1
This Siberian affinity is different to later waves in Scythians, or Huns.
@Davidski
Thanks. Sorry for the pestering, but do you think the Tianyuan/AR33K/IUP ancestry in ANE accounts for the clinal relationship between Northeast Asians and EHG? I remember reading somewhere that some Devil’s Gate samples might have very minor ANS or Gravettian, they also have large amounts Tianyuan-like ancestry. Admixture with a Salkhit population is also possible—it would add more Tianyuan/IUP. Is an Ust’-Ishim element also a potentiality?
@Rob
although it needn't be specifically Boisman_MN)..As the climate got better, once separated HG populations re-connected via a series of intermediaries…This Siberian affinity is different to later waves in Scythians, or Huns.” If not Boisman_MN-like, what kind of population are we looking at here? How is this Siberian affinity different from the Huns, Scythian, Botai, or Uralics?
@Simon
Hard to say at this time. Too many gaps in the data.
@Rob et al.
Former Putin's adviser on Putin's war against Ukraine and Russia (Interview)
You were born in Odessa, what do you feel when you look at what is happening now in Ukraine?
For me, this war is disgusting. I am glad that my father, mother, grandmother are dead anymore, they cannot see it. This is an anti-Russian war in a sense, and so is anti-Ukrainian. It destroys the Russian sense of identity, the Russian sense of unity. Needless to say, we've been in some strange collective depression for a month now, but we don't have the strength to stop the war. The feeling of helplessness is now the strongest feeling
@ StP
enough with your anecdotes. There are always 2 sides to a story.
@Gaska
"In this respect Poland and Hungary are doing well, although I don't think Brussels will allow their governments to stay in power for long."
One can always hope, but "Brussels" has rather limited toolset.
It is nice watch from afar with popcorn and say "wise" things like how independent and clever is the Hungarian government for standing up to "Brussels", but what is actually inside is quite different. A literal criminal syndicate captured the sate and killed democracy and rule of law by a thousand cuts, slowly but steadily turning Hungary into a banana republic controlled by unscrupulous robber barons.
The damage they already caused is nearly irreparable. Not only we missed an once in a century opportunity of elevate ourselves (in a decade of international economic boom and a windfall of support dwarfing the Marsshall-plan) due to insane level of corruption and short-sighted economic policies, but also they poisoned the society in many ways. And on the top of that they only want to be independent from powers that have some moral standards. They have extremely disadvantageous deals with China, pretty much turning the country into the bitch of Asian despots.
@Rob
That is, you have the belief that the Russian „Butcherists” are creating such disgusting events in Ukraine that they seem unbelievable and anecdotal?
(This "anecdote" is the public opinion of Gleb Pawłowski)
@Davidski
Is there an ETA on when those new xinjiang samples will be converted into G25 coordinates? Also if you're interested I set up a discussion thread about the article on my blog.
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00267-7
This one also came out recently, Avar genomes!
I need the genotype files. But all I've seen to date is a link to the BAM files.
Maybe the genotypes are on request from the authors?
I think this is it...
https://download.cncb.ac.cn/gsa-human/HRA001777/processed/
But it'll take me a day to run these samples.
@Davidski
I hope, that contrary to your earlier decision to effectively go on hiatus until the Ukrainian situation settles, you make an article about the new Avar samples. I am really interested in your take on this, and pretty sure I am not alone.
Avars were MONGOLIAN.
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00267-7
All twenty Avar-period males from the DTI carried the N1a1a1a1a (N-F4218) lineage, and all but one could be assigned to the N-F4205 sub-branch, typical for present-day Mongolian and Transbaikalian populations (Ilumäe et al., 2016).
Finngolia indeed.
N3a5-F4205 (cf. Ilumae et al. 2016)
46/111 = 41.4% Buryats
8/119 = 6.7% Karanogays
6/95 = 6.3% Tuvans
24/381 = 6.3% Mongols
2/61 = 3.3% Altaians
5/221 = 2.3% Siberian Tatars
4/185 = 2.2% Kazakhs
1/57 = 1.8% Evenks
3/277 = 1.1% Crimean Tatars
1/100 = 1.0% Karakalpaks
1/215 = 0.5% Uzbeks
1/566 = 0.2% Ukrainians
One also may note based on data from other studies that the distribution of N-F4205 among Buryats is not homogeneous. This clade of Y-DNA appears to be extremely common among Buryats who live on the eastern fringe of the Buryats' range, while it is only moderately common among Buryats who live closer to Lake Baikal. The difference is comprised of various subclades of C2-M217, O-M175, R-M207, etc.
Have subclades of C2-M217 also been found in purported Avar remains?
@Rob
Kale posted these stats, curious as to your thoughts:
1) SouthAfrica_2000BP.SG RUS_Arkhangelsk_HG.SG Andaman_100BP.SG RUS_Primorsky_DevilsCave_N.SG 0.00093 1.74 1106783
SouthAfrica_2000BP.SG RUS_Karelia_HG Andaman_100BP.SG RUS_Primorsky_DevilsCave_N.SG 0.00140 2.85 1026597
SouthAfrica_2000BP.SG RUS_Samara_Lebyazhinka_HG Andaman_100BP.SG RUS_Primorsky_DevilsCave_N.SG 0.00113 1.89 469035
SouthAfrica_2000BP.SG RUS_Samara_Sidelkino_HG.SG Andaman_100BP.SG RUS_Primorsky_DevilsCave_N.SG 0.00129 2.46 952770
2) MA1.SG RUS_Arkhangelsk_HG.SG RUS_Irkutsk_AngaraRiver_LN.SG RUS_Yakutia_KolymaRiver_Meso.SG 0.00083 1.35 788366
MA1.SG RUS_Karelia_HG RUS_Irkutsk_AngaraRiver_LN.SG RUS_Yakutia_KolymaRiver_Meso.SG 0.00005 0.09 734249
MA1.SG RUS_Samara_Lebyazhinka_HG RUS_Irkutsk_AngaraRiver_LN.SG RUS_Yakutia_KolymaRiver_Meso.SG -0.00009 -0.13 338836
MA1.SG RUS_Samara_Sidelkino_HG.SG RUS_Irkutsk_AngaraRiver_LN.SG RUS_Yakutia_KolymaRiver_Meso.SG 0.00059 0.99 678304
3) MA1.SG RUS_Arkhangelsk_HG.SG RUS_Yakutia_Kamenka2_LN.SG RUS_Irkutsk_Shamanka_EN.SG -0.00010 -0.25 788497
MA1.SG RUS_Karelia_HG RUS_Yakutia_Kamenka2_LN.SG RUS_Irkutsk_Shamanka_EN.SG -0.00005 -0.13 734360
MA1.SG RUS_Samara_Lebyazhinka_HG RUS_Yakutia_Kamenka2_LN.SG RUS_Irkutsk_Shamanka_EN.SG -0.00015 -0.33 338890
MA1.SG RUS_Samara_Sidelkino_HG.SG RUS_Yakutia_Kamenka2_LN.SG RUS_Irkutsk_Shamanka_EN.SG 0.00012 0.31 678420
4) MA1.SG RUS_Arkhangelsk_HG.SG RUS_Primorsky_Boisman_MN Mongolia_Bayantumen_N 0.00019 0.37 594825
MA1.SG RUS_Karelia_HG RUS_Primorsky_Boisman_MN Mongolia_Bayantumen_N 0.00011 0.23 584004
MA1.SG RUS_Samara_Lebyazhinka_HG RUS_Primorsky_Boisman_MN Mongolia_Bayantumen_N -0.00054 -0.94 288731
MA1.SG RUS_Samara_Sidelkino_HG.SG RUS_Primorsky_Boisman_MN Mongolia_Bayantumen_N 0.00059 1.15 505636
Kale: “I'm not aware of any archaeology for or against the matter, but I'd assume the most plausible explanation would just be a trickling over contribution from one more of the many para-Native American like groups such as Ust-Kyakhta_14KBP, Kolyma_meso, Russia_LenaRiver_LUP.SG, Buryatia_meso, etc. sometime between 18-13kbp, surely responsible for some of the y-hg Q lineages seen later on.“
@ Romulus
“ Finngolia indeed.””
You must be trolling because neither Finns nor Avars come from Mongolia
@Ebizur
"Have subclades of C2-M217 also been found in purported Avar remains?
Two C2 was reported in Carpathian Basin Avar context in the article Y-chromosome haplogroups from Hun, Avar and conquering Hungarian period nomadic people of the Carpathian Basin [Neparáczki et al., 2019]
From two not particularly close sites and not from the same generation.
It appears to be easily an order of magnitude rarer than N-F4205, but it is there nevertheless.
There are many genetically Hungarian samples from the 4th and 5th centuries. This proves the genetic continuity of Hungarians from the Bronze Age, through the Iron Age and the Middle Ages, to the present day. And let us recall that before the arrival of the Magyars, the same Hungarian population was Slavic.
@ Simon Steven
There might have been some kind of genetic/ temporal/ geographic structure within the ANE groups found in post-Ice Age Eastern Europe
@Rob
It’s interesting you mention that, I was thinking along those lines as well. Kale even said a few years back that modern East Asians—relative to Onge—have insignificant, yet consistent excess affinity to West Eurasians, especially to AG3 and EHG, but less so for MA1 and Yana. AG3/ANE could have contributed 5% to modern East Asians according to Kale back in 2019-2020, not sure what he thinks now. Afontova Gora does seem to have more affinity to recent Siberian/NEA populations. You think this also relates/applies to Tyumen? I remember you saying you were almost finished with those WSHG/EHG/ANE models. I’d love to see the final product.
Here are the G25 coords for those new Xinjiang and Avar samples.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/12KRfZmpkYMrDBLH2E6p9eo8VMCcERNZe/view?usp=sharing
If someone can put country codes on these (CHN, HUN etc.) that'd be great.
@David: https://pastebin.com/8KbsAxjJ
Country labelled scaled datasheet.
The Xinjiang samples from Kumar are all labeled with CHN, and it seemed to me the samples from Gnecchi-Ruscone in the datasheet were only the ones from Hungary (based on the mentions of Hungarian locations) so I've labelled those with HUN.
These samples from HUN don't fit on European clines at all - https://imgur.com/a/IXQv5i6
The closest to fitting on European clines are A181018 and A181021.
The Xinjiang transect is yuge and very widely dispersed, so hard to display on a PCA all at once, but it does indeed look from Vahaduo North Eurasia PCA like C3341 is an unadmixed Afanasievo/Yamnaya cluster, while C4282, C1714, C1365, C1662 all from the LBA do look like unadmixed Sintashta/Andronovo.
The other samples will need a more careful look to characterize them. None of these samples immediately seem to look like unadmixed East Asian of any kind, although possibly some might be ANE+East Asian without any steppe pastoralist (EBA/MLBA) or BMAC ancestry?
@Davidski
I have a labeled the scaled ones, did not have the patience for the raw. :(
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1LhNBBoRDlcKIIfX32so43Ghioa82vdjYia1DO1TFCqc/edit?usp=sharing
Quick plot for time against y-dna against PC2, for the samples from Kumar: https://imgur.com/a/i5fQjxl
OK, I have done the raw part too (link hopefully unchanged). Also labeled A1817 as outlier, because of this: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WH6gPYnrExdlRe8hpbGAmaA_u91ApRnh/view?usp=sharing
Right, so all of the samples from the Xinjiang paper are from CHN, while all of the samples from the Avar paper are from HUN.
@Davidski
I did not ascertain the origin of all the Xinjuang paper samples. I checked more than half of them more or less randomly and all of those where from China, so I just assumed everything is from there. Your comment made me a bit worry now for the quality if my work, so I am going to go over, but only in the evening (CET). I tell you if anything is mistaken. As for the Avar samples, the ones in the file are all from Hungary, as well as the Sarmatian ones and a Hun one.
Never mind, I just read Matt's comment.
Having looked at the closest distances for all the new Xinjiang samples, it doesn't seem that the Afanasievo profile survived there past the Bronze Age. If it's in the mix still in some of the later samples, it must be in very mixed form with all the other stuff that entered the basin during the LBA and beyond.
Here's a sneak peak at Russia's real plans for Ukraine.
Yesterday, RIA Novosti published a lengthy piece titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine", which explains in detail what Russia understands by denazification. It's truly horrific
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1510908227202002947
English translation of the article in question.
https://imgur.com/a/9vZI9Gj
Stalin-style communist propaganda. The Russians cannot de-Nazify (in their words, "de-Westernize") Ukraine, unless they raze the country to the ground and exterminate the population. Before that happens, World War III will start.
@Davidski
English translation of the article in question.
https://imgur.com/a/9vZI9Gj
If that is their goal, then we can expect strategic nuclear bombs on Ukraine, because they are not capable to achieve it by conventional way.
Resorting to nuclear weapons would make Russia look even weaker than it already does.
So from Russia's perspective, it has to redefine its goals, and then pretend that it got what it always wanted. It's already started doing that by pulling out of northern Ukraine and focusing on the Donbass.
I guess the state propaganda will have to reflect this process eventually, once the reality sinks in.
Do you think the Ukrainians would accept losing the Donbass and dividing their territory in exchange for "neutrality" and the accession of the rest of Ukraine to the EU?
This region is the richest in the country, without it and thanks to the Russians its economy will be back in the middle ages. It will take years and billions of euros before they can clean up the mess. I don't think the Ukrainians would continue to support Zelensky if they lose the Donbass.
I hope you are right, but down there in Australia nuclear bombs in Ukraine or in Europe maybe do not look so threatening.
We have business with diabolical minds. They are capable of taking the whole world with them into the abyss.
You guys are projecting ('this is our Krajina' or 'Poland'). Like I said before, this is a corporate conflict between Moscow and US- backed neo-oligarchs from "Ukraine". Beyond the rhetoric, Zelenski has no regard for the people of Ukraine.
He wants to ''open Ukraine to the West''. Translation - sell it to USA with a nice cut for himself, Kolomonski - who placed him in power, the gang of Thugs who've been looting assets in the Russian-inclined Don region. Zelenski's only hope is for the war to escalate, a flase flag and this phoney propaganda you guys subscribe to.
But of course, that'll mean WW3. I personally wouldnt want to see one more drop of European, esp Slavic blood spilled, for the Biden-Kolominski kabbal
Do you think Ukrainians would stop fighting if Zelensky capitulated?
They wouldn't. They'd ignore him and find someone else to lead them.
This war will only end when Russia is beaten.
@Davidski
I found an archaeology article you might find interesting, maybe you have already come across it however:
https://www.academia.edu/75099188/Eastern_impulses_in_cultural_and_demographic_change_during_the_end_of_the_south_eastern_Polish_Eneolithic
Yep, on file. Haven't read it in detail yet.
@Rob wrote Romulus […] You must be trolling because neither Finns nor Avars come from Mongolia
April 3, 2022 at 12:50 AM
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867422002677
Gnecchi-Ruscone et al., Ancient genomes reveal origin and rapid trans-Eurasian migration of 7th century
Avar elites, Cell (2022), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2022.03.007
The Avars settled the Carpathian Basin in 567/68 CE, establishing an empire lasting over 200 years. Who they were and where they came from is highly debated. Contemporaries have disagreed about whether they were, as they claimed, the direct successors of the Mongolian Steppe Rouran empire that was destroyed by the Turks in ∼550 CE. Here, we analyze new genome-wide data from 66 pre-Avar and Avar-period Carpathian Basin individuals, including the 8 richest Avar-period burials and further elite sites from Avar’s empire core region. Our results provide support for a rapid long-distance trans-Eurasian migration of Avar-period elites. These individuals carried Northeast Asian ancestry matching the profile of preceding Mongolian Steppe populations, particularly a genome available from the Rouran period. Some of the later elite individuals carried an additional non-local ancestry component broadly matching the steppe, which could point to a later migration or reflect greater genetic diversity within the initial migrant population.
Rob, if indeed Zelensky is able to arrange such propaganda as placing articles in Russia's major media, and in placing mass killings of civilians on satellite footage behind Russian held territory long before the Ukrainians retook it, then there is a definitely a manipulated puppet country and Russia must be it.
Whoops, those dead people in Bucha weren't fake after all.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/04/04/russias-bucha-facts-versus-the-evidence
Killed by Russians. Who would've believed it?
@Copper Axe wrote:
Davidski found an archaeology article you might find interesting, maybe you have already come across it however:
https://www.academia.edu/75099188/Eastern_impulses_in_cultural_and_demographic_change_during_the_end_of_the_south_eastern_Polish_Eneolithic
April 4, 2022 at 6:42 PM
…
And here's the genetic makeup:
Linderholm et al (2020)
Corded Ware cultural complexity uncovered using genomic and isotopic analysis from south-eastern Poland
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63138-w
Afanasievo or BMAC are possible sources of the IE ancestry in Xinjiang (Tocharians).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk1534
@ StP
Yes I saw that, these Avars do have NEA ancestry, but that doesn't necessatiry mean they come from Mongolia in 500 AD, let alone being specifically linked to the Ruruan. Any group could have been fleeing Gokturk rule
@ Matt. i see your point.
In fact, sources say that some 5,000 (or whatever exactly) Ruruan were beheaded by the Ashina. No doubt an exageration, but the Ruruan no longer existed
There’s a militarised Russia and remilitarising Germany. Looks worrisome for Europe
@davidski
Most of the western right sure thought it was fake.
@Rob
This is incredibly nitpicking, but an issue is that people conflate Avar=Mongolian + Rouran=Mongolian to Avar=Rouran. The original "Avar-Rouran hypothesis is that the appearance of the Avar can be linked to the collapse of the Rouran khaganate followed by a westwards migration.
The issue here is that the Rouran khaganate had it's collapse two years before the Avars sent emissaries to the Byzantines. The Khaganate had been in decline for a while longer and people could've been migrating prior to that. There might be some hints pointing towards that because Priscus mentions Avars roughly a century before the Rouran collapse, although not everyone agrees that it is linked to the later Pannonian Avars.
Note though that the name Avar is liely etymologically linked to the Wuhuan.
@Rob
The conclusion of the paper is the Avars came from Mongolia
Mystery warriors made the fastest migration in ancient history
The Avar traveled from Mongolia to Hungary in the span of a decade or two, DNA evidence confirms
https://www.science.org/content/article/mystery-warriors-made-fastest-migration-ancient-history
Meanwhile in Ber...no...Krem...lin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBWmkwaTQ0k
Nevertheless like Ph2ter stated this time there is a red button within reach.
'We have business with diabolical minds. They are capable of taking the whole world with them into the abyss.' Indeed.
@ Romulus
''Mystery warriors made the fastest migration in ancient history
The Avar traveled from Mongolia to Hungary in the span of a decade or two, DNA evidence confirms ''
We need to look at the data itself than click-bait conclusions cited in Science mag
Firstly, i agree with the 'rapid migration' part - Avar rulers were a relatively compact Northeast Asian people who maintained this distinction well into the middle & Late Avar periods, and turned up in Europe ~ 550s AD. This differs from, for ex, Scythians who were heterogeneous from the start, ranging from Thracian profiles to Karasuk-type profiles, and becoming progressively more western with time.
However, the 'from Mongolia' part seems unsubstantiated. The study says
these individuals carried Northeast Asian ancestry matching the profile of preceding Mongolian Steppe populations, particularly a genome available from the Rouran period.. However, they show no proof of this. They did not model Avars as Rouran, nor do they demonstrate any IBD evidence of affinities (that's because the one available Rouran genome is of lower quality).
As I mentioned, by 500 AD "NEA" had stretched well beyond Mongolia itself, we already see it in 200 BC (!) in northeastern kazakhstan (DA 20, Damgaard 2018). in itself, such genome-wide similarities do not constitute clear evidence.
Then we look to Y-DNA. Avar-related hg N is linked to Uralic lineages. Out of scores of Khovsgol, Slab Grave, Xiongnu & Xianbei era genomes in Mongolia, only 1 or 2 belong to this line. The Rouran and other Dongu-related individuals are Y-hg C-something. The study also mischaracterises modern Mongols, which are overwhelmingly Y-hg C
The exception to this a Buryats, who historically were from the cis-Baikal region, and might have become ''Mongolized'' during the pax Mongolica . The hg N centre of focus seems to be central-western Siberia
@ Copper Axe
''The issue here is that the Rouran khaganate had it's collapse two years before the Avars sent emissaries to the Byzantines. The Khaganate had been in decline for a while longer and people could've been migrating prior to that. There might be some hints pointing towards that because Priscus mentions Avars roughly a century before the Rouran collapse, although not everyone agrees that it is linked to the later Pannonian Avars.''
Priscus' fragment is said to date to 463 AD, so it's hard to rationalise that in the years around the Rouran demise (550s). The bigger problem is that these 'fragments' survive from later, Medieval renditions; so it's difficult to guage their authenticity (medieval chroniclers often added to & 'edited' original texts), adding in Huns & Goths here & there.
''Note though that the name Avar is li(k)ely etymologically linked to the Wuhuan.''
I think that is Pulleyblank's attempt to rationalise the Ruruan Avar link, and I find it unconvincing
More convincing is Harmatta's etymology, because its self-evident and widely attested.
Avars are Varchionites, Var Huns = 'Red Huns'. Chionites are widely attested throughout central Asia already by 400s AD, and Varhuns might have been their northern cousins.
'' The original "Avar-Rouran hypothesis is that the appearance of the Avar can be linked to the collapse of the Rouran khaganate followed by a westwards migration.''
The modified version is far more convincing, and that is the Avars are any possible group fleeing the expansion of the Gokturks. The Rouran core did not flee, they tried to negotiate with the Chinese, but were betrayed and met a horrible end
It is interesting the implications these Avars have for the Huns. Presumably the best explanation is now that the Huns were originally Mongolian as well, or at least much closer to Mongolian than anything else. Did Hungarians and Bulgarians originate in Mongolia too? They may not like that suggestion but it's probably true. All Turkic people probably did, or in the Steppes West of Mongolia, and they were probably no different that Mongolians genetically in the beginning.
@ Matt
I like to move beyond this for now, one last thing - Russia says it “deNazifies”, the west “spreads democracy”.
I guess it’s a case of “Better the Devil you know”
@Davidski
Dave what are your thoughts on this paper (it just came out)?: https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/pz-2022-2034/html
The paper is entitled “The Eneolithic cemetery at Khvalynsk on the Volga River” (David W. Anthony, A. A. Khokhlov, S. A. Agapov, D. S. Agapov, R. Schulting, I. Olalde and D. Reich). Unfortunately, it’s behind a pay wall, but Bernard over at Anthrogenica, posted some of the Y-DNA/mtDNA results, and it’s interesting. Like Yamnaya_Caucasus and Progress, Khvalynsk has R1b-V1636 (sample: I0122), while the other fourteen R1bs couldn’t be discerned past L754/L389. We have one R1a-M459 (sample: I0433), one I2a-L699 (sample: I6103), one J1a-CTS1026 (sample: I6735), and five Q1s. The breakdown of the Q samples goes as follows: three are Q1a-YP1669 (I6407, I6299, and I6739), one was discerned to Q1a-M25 (I6740), and another could only be discerned to Q1-L472 (I0434). Here’s a breakdown of the mtDNA clades: H2a1 (3), H13a2a (1), R1b1 (1), T2a1b (2), U2e1a1 (1), U2e1b (3), U2e2a1 (2), U4a/U4a1 (5), U4b1 (1), U4d (3), U5a1/U5a1a1 (4), U5a1a2 (1), U5a1i (2), U5a2d (3).
@Rob
Russia says it “deNazifies”, the west “spreads democracy”.
I guess it’s a case of “Better the Devil you know”
---
As if there is something wrong with the spread of democracy.
I do not know of any normal democratic country that would be invaded by the West. These are, as a rule, totalitarian countries that attacked their neighbors, were a haven for international terrorists, or repressed national minorities.
@ Unknown
Obviously that is to be supported if legitimate, but the historic reality has been more murky
Anyhow, I was simply highlighting the co-respective narratives
All r1b in Khvalynsk are R1b-V1636 because they are whole families buried in the same cemetery (father, sons, nephews, cousins and grandchildren)- It has been definitely demonstrated the genetic continuity between Khvalynsk and Eneolithic progress (V1636), and with the Yamnaya culture (I2a-L699). I understand the frustration of the Harvardians because they are making a great effort to unravel the mystery of L51. They have not found this marker at Sredni Stog either, so we will have to wait.
Rob wrote..
I like to move beyond this for now, one last thing - Russia says it “deNazifies”
Putinists doing not "deNazifies" Ukraine, but only denazification Ukraine, apparently, because they are rather annihilating Ukraine.
They do all this within the framework of the plan by Dugin, the image by Yuriev and the dream by Putin: to create a "third empire", Eurazian = Russian, from Vladivostok to Lisbon
I'm starting to think this war in the Ukraine is gonna last for a while. Putin doesn't seem willing to give up soon. Now he is looking for fresh soldiers in Russia and many more tanks are being transported to the eastern Ukraine. And daily the west pays billions of $ to Russia for gas and oil. Meanwhile 81% of the Russians support Putin's "special military operation, according to the latest independent poll. Years of brainwashing are showing their fruits. And even if Putin should be gone one day, his successor is likely to endorse the same imperialist ideology. A Navalny will hardly come to power. Maybe Putin's successor will be Medvedev again, would make sense, lol. Recently he said it would gonna be a long fight until there is a free Eurasia, from Lisbon to Vladivostock. It sounds like a threat. Russia will stay quite isolated, but it still has partners like China and India. For the Ukraine it will stay a threat forever. The Baltic and Poland are better protected thanks to the Nato membership. The only shimmer of hope: so far Russia didn't manage to conquer much in the Ukraine beyond a narrow strip in the east and south. And for this it has sacrificed thousands of soldiers, tanks and other military equipment. The twisting of reality in Russia is hard to bear. A member of the duma recently said that Russia is fighting in the Ukraine out of love, not hatred. So out of "love" they are slaughtering unarmed civilians.
Countries like Germany and Japan who used to have toxic imperialist and undemocratic societies, too, have managed to change completely. But only after a complete and utter military defeat. This cannot happen to Russia, because of its nuclear weapons.
Btw, if anyone wishes to read Anthony's new paper, it is uploaded to Reich Lab's site - https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/Anthony_proof3_Khvalynsk%20pz-2022-2034_v1.3_21_3_2022%20final-compressed%5B3%5D.pdf
@All
Comments claiming that the massacre in Bucha wasn't perpetrated by Russian soldiers will no longer be approved here.
Go argue with the facts somewhere else.
https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-atrocities-in-bucha-not-staged/a-61366129
@Matt
Thanks for sharing that.
From that paper:
Sredni Stog has for decades
been recognized154 as an Eneolithic ancestor of Yamnaya
influenced by late Khvalynsk, early Maikop, and the Tripol’ye and Varna cultures. But neither R1b Z-2108 nor its
immediate ancestral forms are found among sampled
Sredni Stog males, most of whom belonged to the R1a or
I haplogroups, unlike Volga males. The sampled Sredni
Stog populations included individuals who autosomally
resembled Yamnaya a millennium before the Yamnaya
culture appeared. But within that population the Yamnaya
Y-haplogroup patriline evolved in a region that has not
been sampled.
We know where R1b-M269 was, it was found in Romania 4500 BCE, ANI163. Between 4500 BCE and 3000 BCE it was in Romania.
Also interesting that Sredny Stog males belong to R1a and I. I wonder what subclades of I?, those common to Yamnaya or GAC probably. Haplogroup I and R1a are best friends like me and Davidski.
Yamnaya & CWC is in some way similar to western farmers. The latter are heavily “Farmer” autosomal but ~ 0% Anatolian male lineages
Yamnaya / CWC are heavily of the “EHG/ CHG” network but their male lineages are not
How is R1a not an EHG lineage?
@Spy
The Russian massacre in Bucha is not a fake. It's been proven by multiple teams of investigators with open source data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre
Take your Russian propaganda elsewhere.
@ Davidski
“ How is R1a not an EHG lineage?”
I didn’t say it’s not originally EHG, but instead outlined that is not from the “EHG/ CHG network” (aka Volga -Caucasian). It’s likely to be from the northern DD2 network
The bit that jumped out to me that I'd never seen before from Anthony's paper:
"The two dominant patrilines at Khvalynsk II had distinct histories and fates. The Q1a Y-haplogroup is also found at the cemetery of Murzikha II, located 400 km north of Khvalynsk in the forests of the Volga-Kama region, and chronologically contemporary with Khvalynsk or slightly later (4400–4100 BCE). Most men at Murzikha II were Q1a, but from a different lineage (Q1a1) than the Grey family at Khvalynsk (Q1a2). A migrant from the steppes buried in Hungary at Csongrad-Kettëshalom Bastanya, contemporary with Khvalynsk, had Y-haplogroup Q1b, and autosomal DNA similar to Khvalynsk. This steppe male was part of a diaspora of steppe males into the Danube valley that occurred about 4400–4200 BCE. The Q1a and Q1b patrilines were then mobile and wide-ranging, and at Khvalynsk II had the richest grave at the cemetery. However, most of the men at Khvalynsk II, and all the Yellow family, were R1b of the R-L754 > R-L389 > R-V1636 lineage. A millennium later, when the Yamnaya culture appeared, the Q1a Y-haplogroup would be eliminated from steppe patrilines and a different branch of the R1b family, R-Z2103, would become dominant."
Perhaps we will see this data or not, and whether its one sample or a community. This community clearly left little trace, but it'll be interesting to see what they look like.
Re; autosomal vs patrilineality, I guess there doesn't seem to be as clear evidence as in Western/Northern MN EEF for replacement of patriline. That's a community that's all G2a and then communities that are all I2 (as far as I can remember). While R1b, R1a, I2 are all diffused between related societies here. The results reported for Sredni Stog do not mention M269, so like upthread mentioned it's seems not the simple scenario for Sredni Stog of M269 from the west coming with pastoral culture into Eneolithic Steppe and only the M269 is retained (while autosomal signature is completely or nearly completely all lost), but it's possible they could have been continuity in some sense. I don't think we have enough dna (and maybe will never have enough dna) to discount such a possibility.
It's possible there could have been an event like is postulated for the BA Orkney, where on a margin, the y-dna remains continuous while the autosome is completely washed over (or to the degree we can't really identify it). But the evidence is not so clear, and I guess it seems like its a story that requires some case for it rather than being the default.
@Romulius, though ANI163 is considered contaminated by the Reich Lab, and anyway has steppe ancestry which would not make it easy to determine the direction of gene flow. (ANI163 is placed in Bulgaria also, but that's a minor point).
The sample that may be R1b-M269 is I2181 from around approx 4500 BCE, who is marked on Reich lab's anno with "published" indicating an indication of having a higher coverage unpublished version. The contamLD software does indicate of this sample that "warning Very_High_Contamination", however they have not labelled him as such (and this appears to be stated to be due to low mtdna contamination offering a contraindicator?). Again though he has steppe ancestry which doesn't solve the chicken-or-egg question.
This quote...
A millennium later, when the Yamnaya culture appeared, the Q1a Y-haplogroup would be eliminated from steppe patrilines and a different branch of the R1b family, R-Z2103, would become dominant.
But wait, maybe the Q1a guys just became the invisible underclass?
Haha.
@Davidski, Q1 kind of reemerged a bit in one Afanasievo family, and possibly in Chemercheck, so the possibly does exist for that. I understand the word "underclass" is contentious (visions of overseers cracking the whip and whatnot), but surely we do think that the Yamnaya kurgans included only certain families and patrilines and its not so clear that they included the entire population? It's not necessarily the case that the non-R1b-Z2103 groups of males are some subservient people, but they may not have had the same kind of prestige or social networks to create these kind of burials, and so end up archaeologically invisible, with some simple flat burials on the steppe that we can't detect at all. It seems competitive with the idea that these groups living in separate places.
@Matt-
That's the simplest scenario because you can't rule out that M269 came to Ukraine from the west (Baltic, Balkans) either as WHG or as early farmers (Narva, Volosovo/LBK, TRB, CT, Varna, Gumelnita-Karanovo-I2181-4.500 BC) and that it was responsible for Yamnaya being western-EEF shifted (unlike other steppe cultures). It is amusing that after so many years what seems to you perfectly feasible for Iberia-Basque country (i.e. only the M269-P312 is retained, while autosomal signature is completely or nearly completely all lost), is not a scenario perfectly applicable to the steppes. Remember that in 4-8 generations an autosomal signature can be reduced to genomic noise. I imagine that Iberian women would be prettier than those from the steppes and that it would be easier for the R1b-M269 to give up their language and customs in sunny Iberia than in snowy Ukraine.
It is also interesting that there are steppe men in Hungary (4300 BC) and that apparently V1636 was not only found in Khvalynsk and Progress but also in Ekaterinovka Mys and Berezhnovka2. I assume it will be unpublished Harvard information.I do not know these samples although I think Reich mentioned them when talking about IBDs between cultures (Ringbauer, 2021)
Seems that groups from the Volga region (Q1, V316) were quite mobile and important during the 45-4000 bc period
@Matt
Q1 kind of reemerged a bit in one Afanasievo family, and possibly in Chemercheck, so the possibly does exist for that.
There's also J1 in Khvalynsk and Afanasievo, but not in any Yamnaya samples that I've seen.
So Afanasievo might represent a Yamnaya population picking up some Khvalynsk-related ancestry on its migration to the east.
That makes more sense to me than whatever Anthony was claiming.
@Gaska, but steppe ancestry is not genomic noise in Iberia and R1b-M269 and SA are together in a clear association which unravels in clear stages over distance and time. Nothing like this is evidenced in the parallel case.
(SA like 30% in the case you mention for example.)
Bravo for the Ukrainians, it seems that Putin has completely withdrawn from northern Ukraine, now to defend the Donbass even if the war lasts months or years.
Anthony and colleagues' theory of R1a-M417 and R1b-L51 as low-class Yamnaya men with no right to be buried in the kurgans seems more a desperate argument than a reasonable explanation.
@Matt
Yeah, our steppe ancestry is not genomic noise, but neither is the 10-20% EEF in Yamnaya. We would have to study well the mtDNA markers of the different Yamnaya variants to understand if it was male or female mediated.
Yeah, R1b-M269 and S.Ancestry are together in a clear association which unravels in clear stages over distance and time, but so are R1b-M269 and WHG or EEF ancestry, because all males of this lineage after 3,000 BC have these three autosomal components in different proportions. Ergo in the parallel case, you have EEF in Yamnaya-R1b-Z2103 for hundreds of years.
@Gaska said...
Bravo for the Ukrainians, it seems that Putin has completely withdrawn from northern Ukraine, now to defend the Donbass even if the war lasts months or years. April 7, 2022 at 4:26 AM
Putin needs a victory in Donbass so that he can flee Ukraine with at least a little honor.
But he wants to expand ("over the corpses of Poland and Ukraine") his empire as far as Lisbon. Neither Moscow nor Berlin hide this (as, for example, in Davos 2015).
Dear Davidski,
Why not ban Romulus from posting?
@Simon Stevin
"Unfortunately, it's behind a pay wall"
David Reich unpaywalls all his papers:
https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/Anthony_proof3_Khvalynsk%20pz-2022-2034_v1.3_21_3_2022%20final-compressed%5B3%5D.pdf
According to the Swiss military expert Georg Häsler, the war is now at a crucial point. The Russian troops are weakened, are standing and are being reorganized. This could be an excellent opportunity for a large Ukrainian counter-attack that could drive all the Russian troops back beyond the border. If they had the necessary weapons: modern tanks for a quick advancement, modern jets for attacks into the spatial depth and an integrated guiding system that would facilitate the coordination of different troops. It would be a great help if the west could deliver these quickly. Otherwise the Russians could try to encircle the eastern Ukrainian troops and annihilate them, if necessary even nuke them, which would be a devastating loss for the Ukrainians.
@Simon_W
"Countries like Germany and Japan who used to have toxic imperialist and undemocratic societies, too, have managed to change completely. But only after a complete and utter military defeat."
Germany only was a ruthless dictatorship for 12 years. Before that it was a democracy, and even in Imperial Germany there was a parliament chosen by every man over 25.
It is likely why Germany reverted so quickly back to a normal country after the war, and why it didn't meaningfully elected any Nazi-like party to parliament, even though a number of these *did* participate in the first elections after the war. In 1945 the absolute majority of the Germans hated the Nazi's.
Might be of interest (not dna) - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01701-6
"Emergence and intensification of dairying in the Caucasus and Eurasian steppes" (Warinner Group from the Planck)
"Archaeological and archaeogenetic evidence points to the Pontic–Caspian steppe zone between the Caucasus and the Black Sea as the crucible from which the earliest steppe pastoralist societies arose and spread, ultimately influencing populations from Europe to Inner Asia. However, little is known about their economic foundations and the factors that may have contributed to their extensive mobility. Here, we investigate dietary proteins within the dental calculus proteomes of 45 individuals spanning the Neolithic to Greco-Roman periods in the Pontic–Caspian Steppe and neighbouring South Caucasus, Oka–Volga–Don and East Urals regions. We find that sheep dairying accompanies the earliest forms of Eneolithic pastoralism in the North Caucasus. During the fourth millennium bc, Maykop and early Yamnaya populations also focused dairying exclusively on sheep while reserving cattle for traction and other purposes. We observe a breakdown in livestock specialization and an economic diversification of dairy herds coinciding with aridification during the subsequent late Yamnaya and North Caucasus Culture phases, followed by severe climate deterioration during the Catacomb and Lola periods. The need for additional pastures to support these herds may have driven the heightened mobility of the Middle and Late Bronze Age periods. Following a hiatus of more than 500 years, the North Caucasian steppe was repopulated by Early Iron Age societies with a broad mobile dairy economy, including a new focus on horse milking."
Were the cattle herders of the steppe mainly the post-Corded Ware MLBA populations...?
Btw, a choice tidbit from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01701-6 -
"Emergence and intensification of dairying in the Caucasus and Eurasian steppes" (Warinner Group from the Planck)
"The oldest individual from this region in our study, PG2001 from the piedmont site of Progress 2 and dated to 4338–4074 bc, indicates that dairying has been a feature of the region’s economy since at least the late fifth millennium bc. " (Sheep milk, not cow/goat/horse).
Not so forager after all...? (Or somehow getting milk...) Though PG2003 didn't test this way, so perhaps it was a lower level of their diet.
One Corded Ware sample has the same Q1b as the one seen amongst the Afanasievo samples and one iron age sample from Jirzankal could be under that same clade. I wonder if the Q1b mentioned would be related to that one. In any case I doubt its from Khvalynsk or linked to the intrusive population with the Q1a lineages (cant recall the subclade).
The Q1 in Afanasievo could be from Siberia (preOkunevo)
We would need a couple of high coverage Ginos and see where they slot phylogenetically
@ Gaska
“Your” R1b-M269 is probably from the middle Don
@ StP
Well there are a few
https://mobile.twitter.com/SocialistMMA/status/1512062248771936259
@ Matt
“ Not so forager after all...?”
4300-4000 is within expected date range for early forms of pastoralism
What isn’t substantiated is previously alleged “early pastoralism” east of the dnieper, dubiously dated to 5000 bc.
Eg refer to AG for ongoing confusion on the matter
But in a nutshell they are hunter-foragers. That is their origin, not “Jeitun” or Caucasian farmers
@All
So thanks to that new paper do we know where those Xinjiang mummies came from?
Were they native to the Tarim Basin, or recent migrants to the region from the Kazakh steppe or western Siberia?
@epoch
Thanks very much for the link.
@Rob
This is the Q1b2a (Q1b-Z5902) sample from Bohemia Corded Ware:
DRO001, Droužkovice_20B-2, Bohemia Corded Ware (Bohemia_CW_Early), 2872-2633 calBCE, mtDNA: H2b, Y-DNA: Q1b2a
Three Afanasievo samples on YFull belong to Q1b-Z5902>FT380500 (IDs: I6714, I3950, I3949). Over at Anthrogenica, CopperAxe did an autosomal analysis of I3950; he’s a typical, pure-Yamnaya-like specimen:
“Speaking of, could anyone y-dna savy have a look at that Q1b2 sample?…There are three Afanasievo samples under Q-FT380500 on Yfull. One of them is on G25 and looks rather typical for Afanasievo:
Target: RUS_Afanasievo:I3950
Distance: 3.4375% / 0.03437528
69.8 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
24.8 RUS_Vonyuchka_En
5.4 RUS_Volga-Kama_N
0.0 RUS_Okunevo_BA
Target: RUS_Afanasievo:I3950
Distance: 3.7551% / 0.03755136
100.0 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
0.0 RUS_Okunevo_BA
0.0 RUS_Volga-Kama_N
Related Q-lineage perhaps?”
Rob we have different opinions, for me the steppe cultures (and also the forest steppe) are not the origin but the sink of R1b-M269. If you are right that could explain why I like vodka so much.
In retrospect, the Russian claims made before the invasion were all smoke and mirrors. Regarding the issue of a potential Nato membership of the Ukraine: It's true that the Ukraine had written this aim in its constitution. But facts are: The Ukrainian request to join the Nato lay on the table in 2008, and it was denied, for precisely the reason not to provoke Russia. Then the problems with the separatists in the Donbass... these wouldn't even exist hadn't Russia intervened. Then the concern that the Ukraine might be developping nuclear weapons: There's zero evidence for this. So these are just attempts to delude part of the public about the real cause of the Russian intervention, which is to re-establish the Russian empire.
An enquiry has shown, that a striking share of twitter accounts, which have tweeted in German language about Putin during the weeks before the invasion, were brandnew, they were created between the 1st of January and the 24th of February. 6256 new German speaking Twitter accounts were created in that period, which have written about Putin since then. Looking at those 100 new accounts which were most active before the invasion, it's striking that more than a third (35%) was pro-Russian. These new users tend to be extremely active, on average they write twice the number of tweets of the average user who wrote about Putin. Some of them write more than 1000 tweets per day. They also have a suspiciously high share of retweets of contents with little originality. Many of them have very little followers and also hardly follow other users. So they want to spread propaganda most of all. It's interesting that this apparent campaign started when most people still believed that Putin wouldn't dare to attack the Ukraine. It suggests that this war was planned longer ago.
@davidski
NATO is not a threat Russia. None of the NATO members has any interest in attacking Russia. Not even the USA or Poland.
America is a threat. A week or so ago, Biden said that Putin cannot stay in power. Later he backtracked and said he only meant that Putin cannot stay in power outside of Russia. But that is not what he said and biden has a habbit telling the truth because he is too dumb to conceal it. It sounds like Washington wants another regime change.
This week american reporters and pundits have been pressing the white house and other politicians on why america hasnt started a hot war with Russia. If you know how American media works, then you realize that the whole media establishment can be turned into a unified propaganda machine whenever it is decided. That is how you control people in a democracy. Suddenly, the whole media will talking about the same thing, using the same phrases to achieve one agenda, war. In america, the narrative for war is never about cost benefit analysis, but instead about good vs evil. So when the American media is talking about how evil putin is or talking about war crimes they are laying the groudwork for a democratic country to go to war. The talk of a hot war has only seemsed to take place this week, so i dont know how much of it is sticking. What I can say is that before America invaded Iraq, there was a lot more debate and pushback than what I am seeing nonw, at least for the initial build up.
All the worst war mongers in America, the same ones who effed up the middle east and kept america in a very costly war, are pushing for more aggression against russia. If you assume they will show some humility towards a nuclear power like Russia, you might be wrong. I know the motive of one such influencer in America. He is the political pundit on fox news, Mark Levin, and he basically hates putin because of Russias support for Assad, who is an enemy of Israel. I dont know what others influencers think they have to gain from a hot war with Russia but I am sure it is not about Ukrainian sovereigty. They are not good people. I Hope that level head previal because if not this can get really bad.
@Rob, I think although it may not be expected, we haven't known how to discuss these people's subsistence (the Eneolithic Steppe ancestry group of the steppe bordering the caucasus).
For instance in this - https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/05/understanding-eneolithic-steppe.html - we all sometimes refer to them generally as "hunter-fishers" and then occasionally as pastoralists. I think this makes it clear that there is a strong pastoral element here, at least enough to make milk and dairy consumption enough of a regular part of diet to be detected. We can be clearer about talking about them as having enough of a element of pastoralism to be talked about as early pastoralists. It's clear that they're not just using a few domestic animals for sacrifices.
They note about the Oka-Volga-Don here:
In the Oka–Volga–Don region, we analysed dietary proteins within the dental calculus proteomes of seven individuals dating from the Eneolithic through the Middle Bronze Age (Fig. 1c and Supplementary Data 3). Despite excellent protein recovery, no milk proteins were detected in an individual from the Neolithic–Bronze Age site of Ksizovo 6, dating to 5837–5670 bc, nor from individuals associated with the Sredny Stog culture (n = 2) at the Eneolithic–Bronze Age site of Vasilevsky Kordon 27, dating to ca. 3600–3100 bc. Milk proteins were also absent from individual RAV002, dating to 3514–3356 bc, and from two Middle Bronze Age individuals from the Shagara cemetery, dating to 2572–1893 bc. Only an individual at the site of Rovenka tested positive for milk proteins. This individual, RVK001, was associated with a late Catacomb culture site, dating to 2339–2148 bc, and was positive for sheep (Ovis), goat (Capra) and cattle (Bovinae) milk proteins (Fig. 1c).
That's interesting; these samples are labelled as 'late Sredny Stog' in their supplement. It could show that pastoral elements at SS were not focused on milk at all, and perhaps this did fit more with a model of introduced pastoralism being only important for animal meat and sacrifice, while the Eneolithic Southern Steppe / Maykop / Steppe Maykop and early Yamnaya are all sheep dairying.
Note this is a Sredny Stog site off the Pontic-Caspian steppe ecozone though (per their map). So this does seem to leave Khvalynsk and perhaps Sredny Stog (and Repin?) sites *on* the steppe as an "excluded middle"?
The authors of the paper seem to tentatively present the idea that this indicates that sheep based pastoralism was introduced from the south and made its way north over time, in the steppe bordering the Caucasus.
@pnuadha
I can't recall NATO or any NATO members ever threatening Russia with invasion, but I do recall Putin openly threatening Poland and the Baltic states with invasion.
And now Putin has started one of the most stupid wars in European history. So I think Biden was right, and he shouldn't have backtracked.
Ah, they used cluster munitions on civilians.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512353521076744192
Russian ingenuity!
@ Matt
All these dates (Khvalynsk, Progress, etc) are similar 44-4200 BC, representing several generations. This is well into the Eneolithic within the broader regional context (but with a more 'tightened' & framework, previously having been up to 5200 BC). So this all makes sense.
What were 'local' fisher-hunter-gather groups across the steppe & forest-steppe had began auditioning pastoralism, although how exactly depended on which ecotones the site lay, resource availability & cultural choices of the community. This was not an 'arrival of pastoralism' from the south Caspian or East Anatolia, for ex, nor a specific revolution in a special steppe culture (e.g. Lower Don).
Domesticated animals were high proportion in the low Volga/Caspian steppe, most likely because that's what was required there, whilst further north in the less dessicate climate a variety of wild game were available, and hence remained a major portion of their diet. Later during the yamnaya period, sheep were preferred in the eastern Yamnaya & Afanasievo groups because of the drier character of the steppe there, whilst western Yamnaya & CWC were predominant in Cattle. The adaptation of such ideas might indeed have been inspired by way of Caucasus/ sheep , Carpathian basin/ Cattle , although it is possibly more complex than that. Certainly, in the Ubaid regions and Tiszapolagar, new ways of utilizing animals had developed at this time.
One thing that Hansen might look into further is they propose the transmission occurred. For the Balkan - steppe route, we have evidence of early sporadic contact, and evidence of a shift in ideology and economy in LC groups in East- Central Europe; so it's straightfoward.
The Caucasus root is quite complex, and they only gloss over it. For exa they say ''Animal husbandry of domesticated sheep (Ovis aries), goats (Capra hircus), cattle (Bos taurus) and pigs (Sus scrofa) spread to the North Caucasian steppe from Anatolia during the fifth millennium BC by either a circum-Pontic route or by crossing the Caucasus mountains from the south''. They cite Wang and previous archaeological literature. But they cannot be bundled all together.
First came Darkveti- Meshoko c 47/4500 BC (RE tbd). As the Anthony article outlined, these groups came to participate in the Balkan - steppe network; and are quite distinct to Majkop, are quasi hunter-gatherers with some Anatolia_N (rather than Iran_N) related admixture. They admit that ''Notably, we found that dairy consumption was evident among individuals lacking Anatolian ancestry, such as PG200133, demonstrating that the adoption of dairying by North Caucasian transitional foragers was already underway during the late fifth millennium BC''. So the question remains as to how these groups acquired pastoralist techniques from eastern Anatolia and southern Caucasus ?
By the time Maykop arrive ~ 3700 BC, things are already in swing. Maybe Majkop brought some techniques which sharpened pastoralist skills, but they dont appear to have started the process
Also interesting is ''After 1700 BC, the steppe and piedmont zones of the Northern Caucasus appear to have been largely depopulated until the ninth or eighth century BC, whereas pastoralist groups continued to occupy the high plateaus of the Caucasus Mountains.''
@Romulus
What exactly do Avars have to do with Finns or Hungarians? In what way does Avars carrying a subclade of N not common among Uralics at all connect with Finns or Uralics in general?
So was Sredny Stog R1a or R1b? Which is the real Indo-European lineage? Looks like R1b.
New Sredny Stog samples belong to various subclades of R1a and I.
But since Corded Ware and Yamnaya are derived from Sredny Stog (based on autosomal similarity) then it's very likely that R1a-M417 and R1b-M269 were both in Sredny Stog.
IMO Sredny Stog was Proto-Indo-European.
@ Simon Steven
Right I see, that’s good to know
@ Joey: Avar N-Y16323>N-F4205 descend from the same N-Y6058 as N-CTS10760, leading into many very Uralic speaking looking sub lineages (or people descending from them.) That being said, Avars can't have spoken anything based on Proto Uralic, as it was born somewhere near Ural mountains, but they may have (partly) spoken something based on Pre Proto Uralic, possibly near Mongolian Altai etc. The language of Avars is unknown and the modern languages of N-F4205 are not really a proof of anything, regarding the Avar Era. Conqueror N-Z1936 is of course a different issue because we know that at least some Conquerors spoke a language descending from Proto Uralic, even if there were people speaking Turkic too. Possibly related to that or then not, there were among Conquerors people with N-M2019 too, nowadays known as the "Yakut" lineage.
@Rob, yes, in a way it's expected, I see what you're saying about that.
But it is interesting to compare the results here from Khvalysnk (which I forgot about in the prior post) - https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/2021_Wilkins_Dairying_Nature_Main.pdf
They don't see presence of milk as present in their Eneolithic samples from Khvalynsk 1 and 2, Kholplovsky Bugor, Murizikha (or at Botai), then Yamnaya / EBA in the overlapping ecozone do. The Khvalynsk samples which they place in around the dating of 4400-4150 BCE seem more comparable. Obviously the dates are not exactly the same but does seem to suggest that dairying and dairy use is a bit more precocious around the southern steppe. This is perhaps due to this ecological factor.
Is your suggestion here more that you think that this is due to a pastoralist infusion of animals actually coming from the Balkans, which reaches all the way perhaps down into Darkveti-Meshoko through a steppe network, and then the patterns that show dairying as more excluded from the late Sredny Stog site and Khvalysnk that are roughly contemporary with Progress 2 and Kurganny 1 in the southern steppe (who do show dairying in teeth), are just more of an ecological factor?
Re; Maykop it does still seem like nothing here disconfirms the stereotype I have developed of Steppe Maykop as a group that slightly precedes the Yamnaya, and is more archaeologically obvious in slightly earlier introduction of the wagon, and has more genetic connections with Maykop and Usatovo. So they pioneer highly mobile steppe pastoralism, but they are perhaps more focused on long distance trade connections and less on the open steppe and forest steppe, and don't have the same population boom as the more genetically isolated and "provincial" group who also get the same technologies and use it more to expand settlement.
There's some overlap in the early Yamnaya and the Steppe_Maykop, although it's interesting that the early Yamnaya from the Caucasus (the pre-3000 BCE one), RK1007 and who has dairy consumption, clusters closer to the Progress samples and outside the variability for Yamnaya from Samara (although of course the dates for Yamnaya at Samara do include a few individuals of comparable age around 3000 BCE). (In their previewed slides, Reich and Ringbauer seem to have only found one sample out of the four Yamnaya from Caucasus to be useful for the IBD method, and it shows nothing special).
If R1b-M269 was in Sredny Stog hopefully a specimen that is R1b-L51+,(L52-) or a specimen that is R1b-L23+(L51) or, even better, both can be found. That way it can be shown several generations of ancestors of R1b-L151 and R1b-P312 lived there. R1b-M269 is way to general with 106 phylogenetic equivalents with about 7000 years of difference between the first SNP and last SNP in the block. Even 100 years gives too much time for the possibility of movement.
@Davidski wrote…
New Sredny Stog samples belong to various subclades of R1a and I.
But since Corded Ware and Yamnaya are derived from Sredny Stog
It seems to me that it happened closer to the Carpathians: on the Dniester and Prut (Heyd & Frinculeasa, Włodarczak…)
@Rob
Oh sorry, I forgot to mention that DRO001 is Q1b-FT380500, just like those three Afanasievo samples (I6714, I3950, and I3949), and this info comes from Pribislav by the way: “DRO001; 2872-2633 BC; Droužkovice_20B-2; Corded Ware; belongs to ‘Afanasievo’ clade Q-L56>Y2659>Z5902>Y6802>Y147687>FT380500”
@ StP
“ (Heyd & Frinculeasa, Włodarczak…)”
Nope. “rob 2014”
@ Matt
“ Is your suggestion here more that you think that this is due to a pastoralist infusion of animals actually coming from the Balkans, which reaches all the way perhaps down into Darkveti-Meshoko through a steppe network”
No, Meshoko had their own economic adaptations, although this remains to be defined. I view them as the “TRB of the Caucasus” - a (C)HG rich group which adapted domesticates from adjacent southern farmers, whether Sho-Shu or yet to be discovered sites in northeast Anatolian coast
My point rather was that these came up north to participate in the Balkan - steppe trade network and adopted certain ideological motifs (maces, jewellery, etc) too, although remaining distinct . Ie the sredni stog network in the broad sense
''Maykop it does still seem like nothing here disconfirms the stereotype I have developed of Steppe Maykop as a group that slightly precedes the Yamnaya, and is more archaeologically obvious in slightly earlier introduction of the wagon, and has more genetic connections with Maykop and Usatovo. ''
Might be the case, but this is just one step in the longue duree development of steppe pastoralism. The process of domesticate familiarity in the steppe goes back to 5500 bc, when hunter-gatherers from hither-Eastern-Europe moved into the eastern Carpathian basin and northern Balkans. The 'steppe variant of I2a2b'' is seen in ALPc, but appear as ~ 95% EEF whilst their kin further east lacked EEF. Then we see individuals with EEF (Ukr N _o) with same lineage in the Dnieper region, perhaps representing the back-mobility, or being sons of 'farmer women'.
The second phase of this process seemed to have occured after 5000 bc, this time with the Khvalynsk-related groups being prominent players, as we see EHG/CHG appearing in northern Balkans. Again, with their return-migration they would have adopted and brought back additional familiarity with domesticates. This to & fro mobility also accounts for the rise in CHG, because it was the VoOlga-Don EHGs which sought out the CHG , primarily due to the importance of Caucasian obsidian (rather than prestige metals or domesticates, which are lacking in the north Caucasus before 4700)
The third phase is post-4000 BC, the nebulous pre/ proto-Yamnaya period, when pastoralism was beginning to culminate. Hansen here focusses on the role of upper Near Eastern infleunces, which is justifiable. But they wholly ignore, or are unaware of the developments in central Europe, mis-termed 'Old Europe' in Indo-Europeanist literature. Although largely derived from EEFs, some groups had undergone an economic and ideological shift to reliance on animal products with resulting societal shift (emphasis on gender distinction, rise on prominent males/ chiefs c.f. female deities, less focus on pottery decoration, greater mobility, etc). There is suggestion that these groups in fact moved toward the forest-steppe (before even GAC did), but often subsumed within the various 'late Tripolje' cultural taxa & thus escaping recognition by scholars.
Maybe there is something to this 'tracer dye' theory of transmission from NEar East to Majkop to Stepe Majkop to early Yamnaya, but I am of the view that these would have brought certain techniques which were simply added onto a longue duree of steppe/ animal interaction and mobility patterns. I am unconvinced of the importation of wheels/ wagons from the near east, as it is used as a special, status symbol in Majkop burials, whislt in steppe burials it is somewhat more of a mundane, everyday technology. Same goes with kurgans, it is Majkop which adopted the kurgan rite from the steppe, although they created dimensions/ size prevouisly unseen, in turn echoed in Usatovo.
@Rob wrote…@ StP“ (Heyd & Frinculeasa, Włodarczak…)”
Nope. “rob 2014” April 9, 2022 at 2:56 PM
Yamnaya><CWC and Z93* (+Z645&Z283?) on Dniester ~5300 YBP.
http://www.tropie.tarnow.opoka.org.pl/images/glavanesti-z93-yam-cwc.jpg
+ Włodarczak, Majchrzak 2021
https://www.academia.edu/75099188/Eastern_impulses_in_cultural_and_demographic_change_during_the_end_of_the_south_eastern_Polish_Eneolithic
Eastern impulses in cultural and demograpfic change during the end of the south-eastern Polish Eneolithic
Quod erat demostrandum
1-There is no R1b-M269 in Ukraine or Russia before Yamnaya culture.
2-There is still a possibility that the Volosovo rumors are true, but then they will have M269-HGs from the Narva culture (without CHG/EEF in their autosomal composition).
3-Samples we have from Ukraine (mesolithic-chalcolithic) and those to be published are all V88, I2, R1a, so we are still as we were 7 years ago
4-Why do R1b-Z2103 and EEF ancestry appear simultaneously in Yamnaya-Afanasievo?
5-The EEF signal in Yamnaya is clearly western (aprox 25% WHG like GAC or Iberia) not from Caucasus, Anatolia, Central Asia, Siberia or Scandinavia
6-The most important migration that reached Bohemia are R1a-M417, R1b-Z2103, I2a and Q (2800-2,750 BC) and have their origin in the Yamnaya culture-as indicated by their uniparental-autosomal markers.
7-In my opinion R1a-M417 and R1b-L51>L151 did not travel together because they were never together. The latter is 250 years older in Bohemia than the former ergo it comes from local neolithic cultures (probably with origin in Jutland or the Baltic).
8-There is an obvious archaeological connection of Dnieper-Donets with western and Scandinavian cultures, and we have R1b-M269 in Belgium (ca. 3,250 BC) with ceramics from the Hoguette culture. Similar ceramics have been found in Ukraine
@David,
The authors: Włodarczak and Majchrzak in "Eastern impulses in cultural and demographic change during the end of the south-eastern Polish Eneolithic" characterize the cultures of the broadly understood former Lesser Poland (Lesser Poland, Subcarpathia and Southern Lublin) in South-Eastern Poland.
In my opinion, this region, together with Wolyń and Podolia (Ukraine), corresponds to the features of the PIE homeland
They authores write that new research on the end of the Aeneolith and the early Bronze Age of communities in Southeastern Poland (4th and 3rd millennium BC) makes it possible to distinguish between stages related increased migration processes up to the emergence of East European populations of steppe origin.
The oldest stage is represented by burials from the burial mound in Hubinek in the western part of the Volyn Upland (around 3000 BC); three graves discovered there with features of the Yamnaya culture.
The second stage is related to the mounds of the oldest horizon of Corded Ware culture (c. 2900–2700 BCE).
In the third period, catacomb burials appear, showing similarities to the features of the catacomb culture (ca. 2550–2400 BC); there are also finds in these graves with features of the Middle Dnieper culture.
The fourth migration trend is represented by the Bell Beaker culture burials (ca. 2400–2250 BC); although they are primarily analogous to the Central European region, there are also elements that testify to cultural connotations from Eastern Europe.
The last, fifth wave is represented by burial mounds from the beginning of the Strzyżów culture (around 2000 BC). Characteristic for them is the mound in Stryjów in the Lublin Upland. This newest trend of the burial mound is probably related to the western expansion of the Babin steppe community to the Volyn and Podole regions.
@StP
Southeastern Poland was home to GAC before CWC people arrived from the east.
So you have to pick one or the other for PIE, and if you pick CWC, then the PIE homeland wasn't in Poland.
Yesterday I met the first Ukrainian refugees at a friends house in Madrid. Good people, a mother with two children (3 and 7 years old) from Mariupol-They do not speak Spanish or English and the children are already in school. They have only shown us pictures and what is happening in Mariupol is a butchery, much worse than in Bucha and northern Ukraine. Imperialism and ultra-nationalism wherever it comes from always means destruction and suffering.
@StP
Putin will never dare to attack Poland or the Baltic countries, that would mean that Russia would cease to exist forever. He may want to extend his empire as far as Lisbon, but he may be risking his territory west of the Urals. If I were him I would have already asked for Chinese nationality in case things get complicated.
Hi Davidski! I saw that you recently updated the spreadsheet of ancient samples and I thank you for your work and for always sharing it with us.
However, I would like to point out that there is a small error, one sample contains an extra z: "HUN_zNorth_Transdanubia: A181029". Could you please fix it?
Also, I kindly wanted to ask you if you could add these samples from the paper "Genomic transformation and social organization during the Copper Age – Bronze Age transition in southern Iberia" in the datasheet of the ancient samples, the samples can be found in this altvred post on Anthrogenica .
Thanks again in advance for your time and your work. See you next time!
https://anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?8066-Genetic-Genealogy-amp-Ancient-DNA-in-the-News-(DISCUSSION-ONLY)&p=835810#post835810
@David,
Nitra culture in the northwestern Carpathian Basin in Slovakia (R1a: 40%, n = 58; R1a: 19% n = 28) is a late CWC - Chłopice-Vesele culture, comes from Lesser Poland and Subcarpathia! (A Szecsenyi Nagy; J. Batora). However, from Poland!
@StP
The origins of the Nitra culture are irrelevant to what I said.
Davidski wrote...
The origins of the Nitra culture are irrelevant to what I said.
My little head somehow understands that protoCWC and R1a formed over the middle Dnieper, for example. Temporary marriage of proto-CWC-R1a with Yamnaya-R1b and further evolution of CWC took place at the prefield of Carpathian and Polish Pod-kapacie (Hubinek !!).
Here late-CWC / Chłopice-Vesele, in one part as proto-Nitra migrates to the Carpathian Basin, and in the other part as proto-Mierzanowice migrates into the Mierzanowice culture
If my head understands this, then your big one too
I suspect the Zhivotilovka 'culture' might be the ancestor of Corded Ware. What do you guys think?
Igor Manzura 2005. NORTH PONTIC STEPPES AT THE END OF THE 4TH MILLENNIUM BC: THE EPOCH OF BROKEN BORDERS
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0092.2005.00239.x
The study says it is very similar to Steppe Maykop. So maybe they were instead Steppe Maykop people living north of the Black Sea.
We'll see.
@StP
Nitra emerged in a time when R1a was already all over a very wide range due to the Corded Ware expansion. The origin of CWC does not follow from the nature and origin of Nitra in any way. The logical link between the post CWC expansion part and pre CWC expansion part of your story is missing.
@Genos Historia
I can imagine cultural links and some low level genetic effect between Zhivotilovka and Steppe Maykop, but Steppe Maykop cannot be a significant root for CWC population-wise. The genetics do not match at all.
OK, Rob, useful to have your reference for events here. This is one I'll have to try and remember to come back to as new dna samples develop.
Also: https://ecoevocommunity.nature.com/posts/how-can-ancient-dental-plaque-help-reveal-the-rise-and-spread-of-dairy-pastoralism-on-the-eurasian-steppes - a minor "behind the paper" from one of the authors on the new paper on dairy pastoralism. Some errors in there (Sharakhalsun 6 did not live 4,500 years ago but about 5,500 years ago), and I think saying that the earliest dairy pastoralism was found in this region is premature. There aren't enough samples to be sure - we know that British neolithics practiced it at 3,800 BCE, but much of Europe is still unsampled for this https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12520-019-00911-7, though anyway Bleasadle 2021 found goat milk in teeth in North/East Africa at 4000 BCE - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20682-3.
@Davidski,
Btw, the paper by Stephanie Marciniak and collaborators where they seemed to have found Neolithic Europeans to be shorter than predicted by GWAS, even compared to LNBA groups, has now been published ("An integrative skeletal and paleogenomic analysis of stature variation suggests relatively reduced health for early European farmers" - https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2106743119)
I had thought this all had no new data but they say that "Imputed genotypes for the 167 ancient individuals included in the dataset are available at Dryad (https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b5mkkwhfp). Although no paleogenomic data were newly generated directly for this study, for n = 28 individuals the analyzed ancient DNA data are from primary manuscripts in preparation (data were generated using laboratory methods as in ref. 68 and processed using publicly available software at GitHub [https://github.com/DReichLab/ADNA-Tools]); while a formal description of the data from these 28 individuals from a population genetic point of view will come in future work, these data have been made available as aligned sequence files (.bam files) through the European Nucleotide Archive (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/ena/browser/view/PRJEB51250)."
The samples listed as "in preparation" are:
Hungary_Early_Neolithic: Hung331
Hungary_MBA: Hung127, Hung130, Hung136
Hungary_LBA: Hung137, Hung969
Hungary_IA: Hung148, Hung149, Hung152, Hung154, Hung155, Hung160, Hung162
Romania_Eneolithic (Urziceni): Urzi10, Urzi12, Urzi13, Urzi21, Urzi26, Urzi31, Urzi37, Urzi39, Urzi41, Urzi44, Urzi48, Urzi51, Urzi60, Urzi65a, Urzi68, Urzi70
(Labels mine!)
No data seems to be sitting at the ENA, though the genotypes on Dryad might have something new? The paper suggests that they should all be there. They may just be typical, or we might see something interesting.
Also, there is some new French European Nucleotide stuff here: https://www.ebi.ac.uk/ena/browser/view/PRJEB50940?show=reads
"Archaeogenomics of the Gauls: From geographic and cultural structuration to genomic diversity"
"The Iron Age period occupies an important place in French history, as the Gauls are regularly presented as the direct ancestors of the extant French population. We documented here the genomic diversity of communities originating from six distinct French regions throughout the Iron Age. The 49 newly acquired genomes permitted us to highlight clear genetic continuity between Bronze Age and Iron Age groups in France, lending support to a cultural transition linked to progressive local economic changes rather than to a massive influx of allochthone groups. Genomic analyses revealed strong genetic homogeneity among the regional groups associated with distinct archaeological cultures. This genomic homogenisation appears to be linked to individuals’ mobility between regions as well as gene flow with neighbouring groups from England and Spain. Thus, the results globally support a common genomic legacy for the population referred to as ‘Celts’ by the Greeks and Romans that could be linked to recurrent gene flow between culturally differentiated communities."
@ Matt
I guess the crux of it is - if the earliest milking evidence is from a Steppe En sample lacking south Caucasian admixture , how do we establish its origin ?
@Slumbery wrote: Nitra emerged in a time when R1a was already all over a very wide range due to the Corded Ware expansion. The origin of CWC does not follow from the nature and origin of Nitra in any way. The logical link between the post CWC expansion part and pre CWC expansion part of your story is missing.
It had to be like this:
Under pressure (Heyd: incentive) by post-Yamnaya R1b, CWC-Z93 moved forward, to Poland, and then to Fatyanovo.
Also CWC-Z283 moved forward, and later split into two sides: to the south along the route of the Dunajec River valley and the route of the Moravian Gate to northern and western Slovakia (according to J.Bator; there Vesele and Blatne!), and north to Mierzanowice ( we are waiting for publication).
There's no archeological evidence of any pushing between Corded Ware and Yamnaya, although the two populations were genetic cousins.
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2021/07/on-origin-of-corded-ware-people.html
@Davidski,
The fact that R1a and R1b are cousins, they only knew before 20,000 UBP :-))
Corded Ware and Yamnaya are autosomal genetic cousins.
Nothing to do with Y-haplogroups.
@Hi Davidski,
I think that for the ancestors of the R1a-PIE proto-CWC family to become autosomal 75% Yamnaya, it is enough for one M417 with a 100% Yamnaya woman to have a son Z645, and the one also with a Yamnaya woman had sons Z283 and Z93.
@StP
You've got things backwards.
The earliest Corded Ware people were almost identical to Yamnaya people.
So they didn't become like Yamnaya by mixing with Yamnaya women, but over time they became less like Yamnaya by mixing with Globular Amphora women.
Also, keep in mind that Corded Ware males belonged to R1a-M417 and R1b-L51, while Yamnaya males to R1b-Z2103 and I2-L699. So there's no such thing as the Corded Ware/Yamnaya R1a/R1b dichotomy that you keep bringing up.
It seems to me that either you just got into this hobby, or you're basing your ideas on outdated information.
You should read these blog entries to get a grasp of the basics.
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2021/07/on-origin-of-corded-ware-people.html
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2020/05/understanding-eneolithic-steppe.html
@David wrote: Also, keep in mind that Corded Ware males belonged to R1a-M417 and R1b-L51, while Yamnaya males to R1b-Z2103 and I2-L699. So there's no such thing as the Corded Ware/Yamnaya R1a/R1b dichotomy that you keep bringing up.
Rather, there was not such a close relationship between R1a-M417 and R1b-L51.
Note, David, that Linderholm in Podkarpacie and in Małopolska in the 3rd millennium BC in CWC and BBC cultures only!! sees R1b
In contrast, Szecsenyi-Nagy in the Carpathian Basin in the Nitra culture has 58 only R1a samples from Chłopice-Vesele (proto-Mierzanowice), while in 28 samples R1b sees the Yamnaya culture and highlights the ancestral-family nature of their lives.
The same is underlined by the recent publication of Sjogren in the R1b lineage. After all, we are there in the age of the family social system!
Sjögren Karl-Göran et al. 2020, Kinship and social organization in Copper Age Europe. A cross-disciplinary analysis of archaeology, DNA, isotopes, and anthropology from two Bell Beaker cemeteries, Published: November 16, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241278
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0241278
@StP
Read this carefully.
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2021/08/r1a-vs-r1b-in-third-millennium-bce.html
Here's a study on Kofun era Japanese samples and their admixture changes.
Seems like there was some turnover if those Yaoi genetic proportions are accurate and not just localized.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abh2419
http://www.ebi.ac.uk/ena/browser/view/PRJEB43762
I could turn this to eigenstrat if you want these to have coordinates.
Can someone model the Xinjiang Zaghunluq samples successfully? Theyre the only samples from Tocharian territory and are very weirdly drifted. Maybe im missing some input component.
Im getting crazy high distances of 8%. Either im missing sources, or the G25 coords are wrong.
Target: CHN_Zaghunluq_IA
Distance: 1.8794% / 0.01879404 | R3P
67.2 KAZ_Karluk
25.4 RUS_Sosonivoy_HG
7.4 NPL_Samdzong_1500BP
Target: CHN_Zaghunluq_IA1
Distance: 1.4350% / 0.01435019 | R3P
54.6 KAZ_Tasmola_IA_o3
27.8 RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o1
17.6 NPL_Samdzong_1500BP
Target: CHN_Zaghunluq_IA2
Distance: 1.6184% / 0.01618352 | R3P
53.2 KAZ_Pazyryk_IA
27.0 RUS_Vonyuchka_En
19.8 NPL_Samdzong_1500BP
Target: CHN_Zaghunluq_IA3
Distance: 2.2126% / 0.02212614 | R3P
46.6 MNG_KHI001
29.2 NPL_Samdzong_1500BP
24.2 TKM_Gonur1_BA_o
Target: CHN_Zaghunluq_IA5
Distance: 1.7675% / 0.01767491 | R3P
49.2 MNG_Center_West_LBA_5
28.0 RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o1
22.8 TKM_Namazga_Tepe_En_o
Who are these Zaghunluq sites thought to be ?
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