Saturday, March 12, 2022
Lousy intel
I don't like discussing current events and politics here, but it's impossible to ignore what is happening in Eastern Europe.
It's a tragedy and catastrophe for both Ukraine and Russia. It's also likely to have a negative impact on ancient DNA research, Indo-European studies, and thus also on this blog.
I'm seeing a lot of confusion online about why Russia invaded Ukraine, but I don't think it's very complicated.
After getting the better of the West in recent years, Russia finally overreached and made a massive tactical blunder, in large part because of lousy intel. More broadly, I also see this as the Soviet Union's dead cat bounce moment.
Russia will now have to reinvent itself, possibly as China's junior partner or even vassal state.
As for the "special military operation", Russia's initial plan was to achieve a quick, relatively bloodless victory, followed by a military parade in Kyiv. But obviously that's not going to happen.
Russia's back up plan, if we can call it that, seems to be to keep pushing into Ukraine at any cost, and hope that the Ukrainians finally tap out. But right now that looks like a long shot.
See also...
Matters of geography
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1 – 200 of 668 Newer› Newest»Can't do much without good intel.
I don't see Zelensky as a western puppet by any stretch.
I think he's just a guy who wants Ukraine to finally move forward.
I see that frustration in him, like in a lot of Ukrainians, that his country is still stuck under Russia.
I don’t understand how Europe didn’t learn the lesson from Yugoslav wars
I guess one can blame greater geopolitical influences, but at the end of the day people have to take responsibility for their own actions
@Rob
"but the US deep state didn’t want that . That’s why they got rid of Trump"
I can't believe you're saying this. It was the majority of American voters who got rid of Trump, because they disapproved his performance as the potus. Especially his (non-)management of the covid pandemic, but not just this. Most intelligent observers agree that he must have been one of the worst presidents the U.S. ever had. Although he's still hugely popular among his basis, uneducated, impoverished whites from the suburban and rural midwest. There's no evidence for massive, systematic fraud during the election. And it's stupid to believe in stuff for which there is no evidence. Why then does the majority of republican voters believe in the fraud claims? Because if you repeat a lie often enough, many people will start to believe it. And people also tend to believe what they like.
I just had to say this because it makes me sad seeing so many people believing in a big lie. Makes me doubt the rationality of mankind. But that said, the war in Ukraine is what's absorbing much of my attention these days, and I agree with Davidski's assessment. I hope the Ukrainians will be able to save their democracy and freedom.
Be careful of what you are afraid of & hubris is one's greatest enemy: Allegedly Putin feared NATO and preemptively attempted to remove Ukraine from a future NATO. What he got was a stronger NATO and a weaker Russia. I don't think Putin feels comfortable competing in ideas on a level playing field, hence his pathology. -- Probably the same argument could be made for some other "charismatic" leaders.
@Davidski
Nice to see you’re still active Dave, was worried about your situation. Hopefully there are some new papers around the corner, for over the past decade, this blog has been an escape of sorts for me. Everything has become so politicized and polarized, even aspects of this field, but still, what you do here makes one forget about the ills of one’s life, believe it or not.
As for this conflict, it’s quite tragic. However, the propaganda and lies that have come out of the media where I live about this, it’s all just breathtaking (the Ghost of Kyiv, etc.). There is black and white propaganda coming from all sides, and the truth is drowning in it all (this is the post-truth era). Though as far as I’m concerned, the US and it’s empire, they have no business lecturing about war and the crimes of war, especially after Iraq, Afghanistan, and a decade of civilian deaths via drone strikes. They have exacerbated all of this. Signing a declaration acknowledging Ukraine’s non-ascension into NATO, could have solved this. Over the last 30 years, there has been a significant US/NATO encroachment in the Ukraine (the MAP in 2008), and especially after the 2014-coup, with the appointment of Arseniy Yatsenuk. Yatsenuk established the Open Ukraine in 2007, an organization that was, and still is aligned with NATO, Chatham House, and the United States Department of State. Ukraine made several bids to join NATO from 2014-2021; you had the 2021 Brussels summit, where they tried to put into place Ukraine’s Membership Action Plan. Putin has let it be known that he would not tolerate a Ukraine in NATO. The international security architecture is very sensitive and complex, and Russia is super power, a dilapidated one, but a super power no less. Her leaders won’t tolerate another NATO member on her borders. The US played games with Russia, and they used Ukraine as a pawn. Now the common Ukrainians have to suffer thanks to the power plays of all these oligarchs. This is why I hate politics. One things for sure, this war if it’s not ended soon, will prove disastrous for Putin and Russia, just like Iraq did for the US, except much worse. Ukraine is much larger, and she has millions more people. Additionally, she’s one of the most poor and corrupt nations in Europe. Attempting to annex all of her would be quite a hefty burden, militarily and socio-economically, which is why I see Putin splinting the nation in half. The best case scenario at this point are independent Russian republics in the east, and a neutral west Ukraine.
We also have to remember that in the south and the east, there is a significant Russian population. They’ve been shelled for the better part of 8 years now, and there have been language rights violations. Convicts have been issued weapons; there are restrictions for fighting age men leaving the country. I’ve read that some Greek Ukrainians have said they weren’t allowed to leave the cities. This is a very grey situation, it’s not black and white that’s for sure.
The Russian claims that the Ukraine has to be de-nazified are absurd. Sure there are neo-Nazis in Ukraine, as there are in Russia and in western countries. But they didn't reach more than a few % during the last elections, plus Zelensky is a Jew. Putin isn't a nazi either, but his regime and his ideology make him akin to fascists like Mussolini.
Lately I'm seeing signs that Putin has revised his goals in the Ukraine and would be content with less than initially. First his plan obviously was to dispossess the Ukrainian government and to install a puppet regime. Now his only demands left seem to be a neutral status of the Ukraine and that the Ukraine accepts that the Crimea and the Donbass are lost. He appears to have understood that it would be too hard to occupy the Ukraine for a longer time and to suppress its will for democracy. Zelensky on the other hand seems ready to at least discuss about the status of these territories and to renounce an accession to the NATO, giving way to a neutral status of the Ukraine. However, the Russian demand that the Ukraine has to be neutral AND demilitarized never made sense; it's a contradiction in terms, because being neutral also means that you don't allow foreign armies to operate from your territory. But a demilitarized state is unable to prevent this, and hence unable to defend its neutrality.
@ SimonW
I wasn’t commenting about the US electoral system, how competent his internal policies were or his Covid management. The US health system is a not optimal, unless one is wealthy, so you can’t solely blame trump on that. But the “literally Hitler” didn’t invade anyone, the same can’t be said for his Nobel peace prize predecessor. I just don’t think this would’ve happened under Trump
@Rob
"I just don’t think this would’ve happened under Trump"
Hard to tell. I've also had the idea that this war could have been avoided with more concessions by the West and the Ukraine. Already weeks before the invasion I said: Putin isn't just bluffing, this isn't a mere military muscle play to get out more in the negotiations. There will be a war soon, unless the politicians, both in the West and in the Ukraine, fulfill all of Putin's demands. I said this isn't nice at all, it's extortion, but alas, still better than a war in which the Ukraine would lose everything. And I regretted that the politicians didn't understand this. But then again, we didn't see in Putin's head. And in the case of Hitler for example, all appeasement proved futile in the end.
I told you this Covid thing was a prelude to war
Covid wasn't the prelude to war, it was just the cover that the Russians were hoping to use, because it created some favorable conditions for them, like high inflation in the US.
That is, with the shit already hitting the fan, they assumed that the US wouldn't hit them too hard with sanctions. Alas...
I'm not suggesting that it was completely made-up, but think about it - increasing surveillance & regulations, world dis-attachment (no travel), put on your masks, get your 15th booster..
Somebody knew what was unfolding, and not in a unipolar way. Following the foremost suffering of the Ukrainian people, the entire world is at a worse place barr a few Oligarchs.
At the same time, if Russian oligarchs were laundering their money in the West, I guess they should have expected to be asked to behave
It is a difficult situation, Russia will not lose face much after the post-communist era, but of course the Ukrainians want a sovereign state that is independent of Russia like the Baltic States once broke away from the Soviet Union, the conflict also goes further back in history but do not want to go into it any further, as in the example of Stepan Bandera, but the claim by Putin of a fascist regime in Kyiv is ridiculous because Selenskyj is of Ashkenazi origin and comes from eastern Ukraine and speaks better Russian than Ukrainian and also has no problem with the Russians but with Putin's expanding policies. But still my great respect to the Ukrainians that they hold up well against a modern military power, I have family on my father's side in Crimea but it's quiet there because it was annexed by Russia in 2014 and unfortunately no contact with them either, in any case control we are in difficult times for pandemics, inflation, migration movements, war ... and the worst for me and everyone here in the thread that archaeological and genetic excavations are stopped!
All the best for the people there, but also for the Russians who are demonstrating against Putin
If we are talking about Russia, then I will express my opinion on this. I must say right away that it is not the opinion of the majority. Rather, this is the opinion of a wavering part of society because part of the Russian population does not support both the Putin regime and the regime formed in Ukraine. But the roots of today's war are in the past. The collapse of the USSR and the Westernization of society in Russia was supported by a very shaky majority. In the key elections of 1991, Yeltsin defeated a protege of the Conservative wing of the CPSU by a small margin of 53/47 percent. The 1990s were a chance to involve Russia in all Western European blocs: NATO, the EU. Instead, the United States began to build new borders in Europe by expanding NATO, supporting separatists in Chechnya, bombing Serbia. As a result, by the early 2000s, public opinion in Russia had slipped into revanchism. Putin at the beginning of his reign was generally a pro-Western politician, he offered Clinton to accept Russia into NATO, introduced private ownership of land. But by 2003, he began to lean towards the revanchist majority prevailing in society. He finally formulated this in 2007 in Munich. Obviously, the United States realized this back in 2003 and apparently they came up with the idea to make Ukraine Anti-Russia. To construct it, they put on primitive lignistic nationalism, which at that time existed only in the western regions of Ukraine. Nationalism is a relatively simple way to consolidate society. Gradually, this nationalist wave covered the center of Ukraine by 2014, and then the whole of Ukraine, and in a violent way. Bans and arrests of the opposition, closure of the opposition press and television channels. In general, objectively speaking, by 2022, the political regime of Ukraine was essentially no different from the political regime in Russia. These are two extremely aggressive militaristic regimes with a ban on opposition parties and the media. The only difference between them is that Ukraine is an ally of the United States and NATO, and Russia is driven by a sense of revanchism and confrontation with the United States and NATO. All the forces involved in this conflict turned out to be short-sighted, which in general led to today's war. That's why I'm not keeping anyone in this situation, there are absolutely no rightists here. As for the future, I admit several options. Option one - Russia wins and absorbs Ukraine. China secretly or explicitly supports Russia. In this case, figuratively speaking, the border between China and the United States will resemble the modern border of Poland and Ukraine. The second option is the same, but China does not support Russia. The story will go in a circle. The escalation of the conflict with the subsequent regime change in already large Russia in some distant future. A significant disadvantage of these two options is also that revanchism is an ideology aimed at the past. It is not at all clear in which direction future development is expected. What I hear from the ideologists of this concept shocks me, it is either archaic primitive conservatism or the most primitive Soviet totalitarianism. The third option is that Russia is losing. In this case, it is unlikely that China will support the losing country, and even if it does, it is unlikely that the revanchist regime will hold. How long will depend on China. If China supports, then the regime can and will hold for a long time, if not, then the change of power will happen earlier to a certain pro-Western regime. Of course, I do not idealize Western democracy and liberalism, I see both the US imperialism and the cynicism of the media, but at least this is an understandable construction.
@Vladimir
Unfortunately, it seems that you got your intel about Ukraine from the same place as Putin.
And I seriously doubt that Russia has much of a chance now of absorbing Ukraine, even in the short term.
The hate that Ukrainians have for Russians, as a result of this misadventure, won't go away for many, many years.
@Rob
Well, I got my booster because there's solid science behind getting a booster.
@Davidski
I know the information about Ukraine well without Putin. As for the future, at the moment all the options that I have listed are possible. For me, none of them is a priority, at least I would not go to war for any of them.
I was unvaccinated and had Covid-19 and was lucky and alive, but I read in a study that came from Sweden that some mRNA vaccines have a tendency to carcinoma? i hope i get the vaccine from valneva it's a really hard excuse in my life to vaccinate or not
There's nothing wrong with mRNA vaccines.
I got two Pfizer doses and a Moderna booster, and I'm fine.
Yes, fortunately the risk of a severe reaction is very low, I'm just afraid of an allergic reaction that I only got 3 weeks after my recovery (urticaria) and that's why I'm worried that I'll get a reaction like this again because of a vaccination e he probably has a slight tendency as a child I had an allergic skin reaction after the flu that disappeared again, my Covid-19 course was mainly diarrhea and fever and extremely tired
I think Pfizer
Putin was willing to risk losing the hearts and minds of Ukrainians—at least what is left to NATO tutelage when all is said and done. But maybe that was his best option?
There are so many opportunistic refugees that Russia could make Novorossiya ethnically coherent and let Lemberg-Lwów pine for usurious "credit" and a short-term "European" standard of living. Bases in Krivoy Rog, Odessa and Kharkov could be the defense rim.
If the Ukraine is conquered under Russian occupation, the Russian Federation will not benefit from constant uprisings in Ukraine from ambush (partisan warfare) and unrest in their own country, partly also due to economic sanctions too early and finally also to the misinterpreted war and the underestimation Putin's Ukraine, although he also has henchmen like Kadyrov, where one hand grows the other, and also control of politics in Kazakhstan (Nazarbayev), but in the long run it will bring him nothing and the raw materials of Ukraine are also sabotaged for the most part, it can also be which in the end falls in the back of the People's Republic of China and the USA can partly stay out of the European conflict because the USA has its own problems for the most part (migration from Latin America, climate catastrophes, unemployment...). The political hegemony has changed, the new actors are China, India, Iran, Indonesia... There is a great book by Peter Scholl-Latour "The Fear of the White Man".
@Simon
"Most intelligent observers agree that he must have been one of the worst presidents the U.S. ever had. Although he's still hugely popular among his basis, uneducated, impoverished whites from the suburban and rural midwest."
Yeah, everyone who disagrees with you is a stupid prole.
Get well soon...to those who didn't liked Trump.
Im going to avoid Booster as much as I can. I don;t need it, I dont want the pericarditis and pancreatitis associated with it, and I dont like the idea of some Fake-Paper shuffling 'Doctor' like Kerry Khant telling me what I must do
modern history isn’t my thing, but the narrative/ identity issue is interesting
Unlike Serbs and Croats who’ve had clearly separate Dukedoms since inception, the Ukrainian / Russian identity is less clear
Buy they've tended to be on opposite sides of things, Bolshevik Revolution (Ukraine was white, vs red Russia), ww2 fascists, the famine killed many ukranians, Cossacks suffered immensely under the Bolsheviks due to their history as imperial guards, etc
West Ukraine aspires Polish tutelage but they spent much of their history fighting against it
I wonder how much Cossack origin modern Ukrainians have ?
@Rob
Pretty sure you've got a much better chance of dying from a blood clot after a bout of Covid than getting pericarditis or pancreatitis after a booster shot.
Fascinating stuff...
https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com
Dave talks about false Russian intel but Larps up fake western media about Covid
They they fudge the figures they lie about the infection rates, and don’t report the prevalent side-effects
I don't take much notice of the western media. My info about Covid comes from scientific papers.
Surely, you must be losing your mind if you believe that scientists from all over the world, including China, are in on some conspiracy to paint Covid much worse than it is.
Whatever, it’s OT, but I know how it’s reported. You could be in there with a wrist sprain but if you’re RAT +ve then you’re a “Covid case” . Make of that what you will but it’s set back important surgery and cancer screening 2 years whilst public hospitals stayed under-utilised
I don’t want to argue about Covid, but my wife just spent from September 1st through January 27th in the hospital trying to survive it, which by the grace of God she did. Two and a half of those months were spent in the ICU on a ventilator, which they eventually reinstalled via a tracheostomy. The rest of the time was spent in Long Term Acute Care and Rehab. I saw it all. It was a nightmare: people in the ICU all around my wife dying.
But for myself, my youngest daughter, and for my youngest son and his family, Covid was no big deal. We got sick, then we got over it in a few days.
It is very dangerous though. It came within less than an inch of killing my wife and beat her up bad. She lost all her hair and looks about twenty years older than she is. It will probably take a year or more for her to maybe get back to where she was.
Btw, my wife is Russian born and raised, but her mom is Ukrainian, born in Lviv and raised in the foothills of the Carpathians. My wife has a bunch of cousins in Kyiv and in Donetsk. One of her cousins in Kyiv is a bigshot surgeon.
Does scoring “Shetlandic” on G25 modern populations suggest Norse ancestry? Or does it only suggest Scottish/celtic? Or does it suggest both celtic+Norse (Scandinavian). I’m a bit confused by this population. If you could help clarify this, it would be immensely appreciated! Sorry if this is getting repetitive, but I would like to know.
I've seen more young people with pericarditis & pancreatitis 2' to covid vaccination than Covid -related respiratory symptoms for the cohort. Individualised risk/ benefit profiling.
By 'healthy' I dont mean Boomers with a BMI of 30
@Vika1736
Does scoring “Shetlandic” on G25 modern populations suggest Norse ancestry?
Possibly, but not necessarily from the Shetlands.
@Rob
I've seen more young people with pericarditis & pancreatitis 2' to covid vaccination than Covid -related respiratory symptoms for the cohort.
That's just a casual observation.
And anyway Covid has killed many more young people than all of the Covid vaccines combined.
@Rich S
Yeah, Covid's unpredictability is partly what makes it so dangerous, because it's hard to argue with many people that they should get vaccinated unless they themselves actually die from it.
OT who is the idiot behind the “Archeogentics blog, who misleads his readers into believing that Anatolian branch came from Armenia and that Steppe herders weren’t IE speakers?
Yes, unfortunately none of us was vaccinated back when we got Covid. My wife fell under the influence of a bunch of Q-Anon type YouTubers and became an ardent anti-vaxer. Believe me, she paid for it. I’m fully vaccinated now, and my wife has had her first dose of the Pfizer vaccine thanks to unrelenting pressure from me and her doctor. She’s due for the second shot on March 16th. At least she can learn, even if sometimes it’s only the hard way.
Rob, whoever you are - you are not too knowledgeable, let's put it mildly, when it comes to commenting on Eastern Europe. You'd be wise to keep your comments to yourself and not be laughing stock.
I am not interested in the arguments of Russia and Putin's regime to invade Ukraine, it is simply unacceptable from the point of view of international law. They are committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. Putin will end up on trial in an international court. I am not interested in China's position either, it is a communist regime trying to control the international order by playing dirty. Russia will end up being a satellite country of China because economically it needs the Chinese. The area of influence of these superpowers will always be Asia and the Pacific and that is where they will confront the United States.
Regarding Ukraine, this is an exclusively European issue, because the Ukrainians have for many years expressed their decision to join the EU and NATO - the European Union has taken two important decisions,
1-Free movement of Ukrainian refugees without the need for visas-In Spain, 120,000 Ukrainians live and thousands are arriving (relatives, friends, etc.) thanks to volunteers and solidarity organizations. This is an unprecedented decision that reflects the commitment of the EU with the Ukrainian people, i.e. we consider them Europeans and we want them to join our project.
2-The European and American sanctions on Russia will produce an economic crisis of monstrous dimensions, we will see if we are prepared to endure. Russia's chances of winning an economic war are ZERO, so an internal revolution against Putin is more likely than the collapse of the EU (which for the first time in history is making decisions unanimously).
I trust in the courage of the Ukrainian people, they are showing that they have a pair of balls, who of us would not fight to the death if a lunatic invaded our country?-The Ukrainians have the right to be free and to be part of the European Union, if they don't get it we all will have failed. . We are already sending them weapons and information and when the invasion turns into a guerrilla war thousands of volunteers will fight for the independence of Ukraine. Putin has got himself into a mousetrap he will not get out of.
Regarding covid –
Management in Eastern Europe has been absolutely disastrous with very low vaccination rates-Official deaths per million inhabitants-Bulgaria (5.260), Bosnia (4.810), Hungary (4.642), North Macedonia (4.386), Montenegro (4.285), Georgia (4.163), Croatia (3.771), Czechia (3.643), Slovakia (3.455), Romania (3.382), Lithuania (3,244), Slovenia (3.080), Poland (3.003), Latvia (2.936), Armenia (2.884), Moldova (2.822), Greece (2.565), Ukraine (2.471), Russia (2.467).
The Western countries with the worst data are Belgium (2,605), Italy (2,600) and the United Kingdom (2,376). Spain (2,162), France (2,138), and Portugal (2,098) have managed the pandemic more effectively despite having suffered the first wave more intensely-The rest of the European countries have done reasonably well-Estonia (1.767), Sweden (1.741), Austria (1,669), Switzerland (1.526), Germany (1.497) and Ireland (1.314). The best countries in managing the pandemic aided by geographic isolation (few tourists and island countries) are the majority of the Scandinavians-Denmark (880), Norway (319) Finland (478), Iceland (229)-
America is a mess (except Canada-963)-USA (2.973)-26 states above 3,000 deaths/million inhabitants and 42 above 2,000 (that is, with a health system similar to that of Eastern Europe)-Only Hawaii (962) and Vermont (974) are saved. Central and South America-Perú (6.266), Brazil (3.045), Argentina (2.770), Colombia (2.689), Paraguay (2.545), Chile (2.258) etc etc…Asia, Africa and Oceania deserve a separate discussion
@ anti Communist
Sit down before you sprain yourself
@Gaska, although from 01/01/2020 to 31/12/2021 recent published study on excess death ratio seems to indicate that the number of excess deaths overall (above the expectation) in Germany is comparable to England and France - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext:
England - 125·8 per 100,000, France - 124·2 per 100,000, Germany - 120·5 per 100,000.
(Norway - 7·2 per 100,000, Ireland - 12·5 per 100,000, Sweden - 91·2 per 100,000, Switzerland - 93·1 per 100,000, Denmark - 94·1 per 100,000, Netherlands - 140·0 per 100,000, Spain - 186·7 per 100,000, Italy - 227·4 per 100,000, Poland - 297·2 per 100,000, Romania - 328·7 per 100,000, Russia - 374·6 per 100,000.)
It's possible that Germany did better on Covid-19 spread though, but this impacted their system to deliver worse care elsewhere and that led to other deaths.
I broadly agree with you on this David.
On why Putin made this apparent miscalculation, there may be special reasons for his thinking specific to why Ukraine makes him (and his immediate circle) mad and liable to act rashly. But one general suggestion I read that is more general was that his Georgia and Crimea "Special Operations" with limited forces quickly prevailing were popular at home and seen as successful. If you have successfully used a hammer, then you see nails to be hammered in everywhere.
So because of this Putin - like we could imagine a embittered CIA man in his position of power in a shrinking and failing US - has become taken over by the idea of this ability of Russia to be like he imagines today's America to be; able to send out small groups of elite troops and units and use propaganda to change regimes to their liking in other countries. So he sends out a force that is small compared to the scale of the country and contains many elite paratroopers.
The trouble is that there's no base of Quisling or discontented Ukrainians in this case, no multi-factional ethnic or religious war or political struggle for him to exploit, and he's just encountered a nation state that is fighting for itself on a mass conscription level with lots of national loyalty, backed by Western (EU and American) money and weapons (as well as weapons from other sources that the Russians have no technological advantage over - Bayraktar).
And like you say, maybe false intelligence from the FSB, scared of displeasing this powerful and unquestionable man, hid these facts from him. Putin went and wrote his wild thesis about "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", and had the whole army (or was it just new recruits?) read it, then which analyst is going to tell him that military action to support it is infeasible? So yes, it was bad intelligence and the intelligence *might* have been bad because they were telling him what he wanted to hear for the scenario he seemed to want to imagine, without believing that it was really going to be something he'd really put to the test.
The only way to win then might become by massive brutality and use of extreme weapons (banned explosives, chemical weapons, etc)... And even then, who would run the country for him after he wins and be his "puppet"?
@ Matt
''The trouble is that there's no base of Quisling or discontented Ukrainians in this case, no multi-factional ethnic or religious war or political struggle for him to exploit, ''
There is the Russian minority in the Donbass which have been claimed to be oppressed & shelled since 2014 + more who had apparently identified Russian as their primary language (hence Putin's rhetoric, although Ive not studied he speeches or anything).
Moreover, the issue of Ukrainian identity is a complex one, definitely, despite anti-Communists above whimpering. It's something which blossomed relatively late (although all nation-state consciousness is a recent phenomenon, even for Greeks, Italians and Iranians). This is not in anyway to justify his actions, quite the contrary Ukraine has the right to feel whatever it chooses.
@ Gaska
just curious do you see the right-wing Basque terrorists who killed scores of civillians also as maniacs ? And perhaps your own delusional denial of R1b-M269 being from eastern Europe might even throw you in the same basket ?
@Rob; Yes, though its regionally restricted isn't it? As I understand it though (dimly), it's not like Russian speakers even outside those regions are very supportive of that, and might see it as a disruptive struggle engineered by the Russian government through a covert invasion. Even if they support stronger rights for Russian speakers within Ukraine. Even in the south where perhaps Russia seems to believe that the most pro-sentiment is and they will encounter least resistance and so are consolidating more forces?
@ Matt
Here is a breakdown of ethnicity in Ukraine acc. to John Mearsheimer's (American political scientist) talk a few years ago [1]
For interest GDP, the lowest is surprisingly in the west
This was the split of the 2004 election votes [2]
Back then, Mearshimer called this a civil strife, but I'm not sure what those Russian-leaning areas currently feel. It would be hard to get accurate information. That's getting into political science, and although i like the occasional conspiracy theory this is too raw for me
Ukraine seems like a united country to me. They're clearly on a mission.
The Basque terrorists were maniacal and psychotic ultra-leftists (very close friends of the Soviet Union, Libya, Cuba and all kinds of communist regimes). I have lost relatives and friends because of them, that's why I understand that violence has no sense in a civilized world and that's why I believe that Ukrainians should resist and crush the Russian invaders. I don't give a damn about Donbass, Ukraine is an independent country with well defined borders, everything else is imperialist rhetoric.
By the way genetics should have taught the Slavs that they are brotherly peoples and yet they are always fighting among themselves. I don't think they will ever understand each other. Rob you should think more about the people and less about Russia's reasons for invading Ukraine, yesterday 200 Ukrainian children arrived in Madrid for cancer treatment because their hospital has been bombed. Ask Putin if he is interested in helping them.
Regarding M269, the embargo on Alessandro Fichera's thesis on the Belgian neolithic has been lifted. There are interesting things for example two R1b associated to the Hoguette culture (3350 BC) and three other later cases without archaeological relation with the CWC. Whenever you want we can discuss them in detail.The official story about M269 is far from being proven, you should be more cautious and wait for developments.
It's sad to see brother nations fighting each other. It's sad to see all the destruction and death. On another level, it's sad to hear that this may slow down or stop ancient DNA research, a passion for so many of us. At this pint, it's difficult to see anything positive from the events of the last few weeks.
@Gaska
“ I am not interested in the arguments of Russia and Putin's regime to invade Ukraine, it is simply unacceptable from the point of view of international law. ”
This is ridiculous. There is no international law. If it existed, then all the presidents of the United States would be in the dock. Clinton for Belgrade, Bush for Iraq, Obama for Libya. Trump bombed Syria.
Alas, but in this world, the stronger one is always right. Putin believes that the saying "Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi" is not about him. We'll see…
All I can say is that South-Africa will not be able to recover economically if this War spills over. Covid and Corruption already put us in the hands of the IMF. Shit will hit the fan and make the July Riots in one of our provinces causing Billions of Dollars of damage look like kinder garden party....
Unfortunately, the situation is even more precarious like Lviv, where grenades hit Poland 80 km from the NATO border, and on the other side, an ally of Russia and Iran has launched attacks on Iraqi territory (Kurdish Autonomous Territory). To what extent can one take the threats of biological warfare agents seriously?
@Rob
1. The history of the territory that is now called Ukraine is quite closely related to what is discussed in this blog. The steppe region of Ukraine, as well as Russia, objectively speaking, was not mastered by the Slavs until its annexation to the Russian Empire. There were attempts to enter this region of the Slavic tribe of the Ants, but they were defeated by the Avars, then there were attempts to spread to this region of Ancient Russia, but also not very successfully. The tribes of Ulich and Tivertsy were gradually absorbed by the Kipchaks. The border of the Slavs proper has always passed along the border of the forest-steppe approximately along the modern Cherkasy region of Ukraine. And even more northerly. The fortress of Kamenets-Podolsky, in the modern Khmelnytsky region, was considered to be a border fortress. To the south, there were already lands that did not have stationary settlements, as they were subjected to constant attacks by nomads. The same applies to the territory of Russia south of Voronezh. During the Mongol invasion, even the settlements to the north were destroyed. The Principality of Galicia was annexed to Poland around 1350. Volyn Principality, Kiev, Pereslavl and Chernihiv to Lithuania. After Lithuania became part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, another attempt was made to reach the Black Sea, from which the phrase "Poland from the sea to the sea" arose. But Poland's war with the Ottoman Empire immediately arose there, and in general, the steppe territory of modern Ukraine turned into a "gray" border zone between Poland and the Ottoman Empire and its vassal, the Crimean Khanate. Actually, this was the reason for the appearance of the Cossacks on these lands. By about 1550, the Muscovite Kingdom had significantly strengthened in the east, which began to expand both to the west and to the south. Around 1500, the Chernigov Principality joined the Moscow One. Then there was a long period of Moscow's war with both Poland and the Crimean Khanate, and by 1700 all the lands east of the Dnieper belonged to Moscow, including Kiev. But the Ukrainian steppe itself remained a "gray" zone. By 1800, the Russian Empire had already completely captured the entire Ukrainian steppe through a series of wars with the Ottoman Empire. Thus, stationary settlements in the steppe began to arise during this period. If you look at the founding years of all the cities of southern Ukraine, then this is the period 1750-1850. Naturally, this territory was inhabited from all over the Russian Empire. The Cossacks were small in number and besides, the Zaporozhye Cossacks in the majority were resettled to the Kuban lands. So there is no question of any national unity in the historical context on the territory of Ukraine.
@Rob
2. Subsequently, in 1917, for the first time there was an attempt to proclaim the independence of Ukraine during the collapse of the Russian Empire. But Petliura's Universal Declaration of independence did not include the lands of Donbass, Crimea and Odessa. There was an understanding that these lands are not Ukrainian at all. Then there was the civil War. And if on the territory of modern Russia the civil war was between the "white" supporters of the capitalist path of development and the "red" supporters of the socialist path of development, then in Ukraine there were also nationalist sentiments. In addition, both in Russia and in Ukraine there were still "greens", this movement can rather be called anarchic. In Ukraine, the civil war had very bizarre forms. Anarchists helped the Communists in the fight against the "whites". Kharkov became the center of the communist movement in Ukraine, with the help of the "red" army from Russia, the communists of Kharkov seized all the lands that are now Ukraine. However, Donbass and Odessa were joined to Communist Ukraine by a decision from Moscow. Immediately after the proclamation of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic, somehow the Communists found mutual understanding with the nationalists, which resulted in the policy of Ukrainization of the cities of eastern and southern Ukraine, which had previously been entirely Russian, in the 1920s and 1930s. Crimea was annexed to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic in the mid-1950s. Despite Ukrainization, the cities remained Russian-speaking until the collapse of the USSR. And even now it is so. First of all, because the formation of cities in southern Ukraine and Donbass, and Slabozhanshchina, too, took place during the period of the Russian Empire and the USSR. A separate issue is western Ukraine, which was joined to the USSR following the Second World War. These lands had nothing in common with the rest of the Ukrainian territories since the 1350s, being either part of Poland or part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. In general, what is now Ukraine is a fairly complex and multicomponent conglomerate. It is difficult to say whether a single nation has formed there. Maybe yes, and maybe not. In any case, given such a complex structure, the strategy of Ukrainization was a big mistake, which from Russia looked like nothing but violent Ukrainization on the model of western Ukraine. In addition, this was combined with the general geopolitical contradictions of Russia and the United States. In general, the result is sad.
Link 1 above seems broken https://ibb.co/b1bsHmJ
NB prewar “ethnolinguistic” breakdown, whatever that entails.
Interesting interview with retired US colonel (first 2 minutes)
https://youtu.be/60zIcBwA2ZA
If Russia was a democracy and not a dictatorship, the Russian actual ideology (which is fascist at its core) would be almost impossible to implement.
I do not understand those who have an understanding for Russia's demands to Ukraine not to become a member of NATO.
Why Ukraine should remain a hostage of Russia and its security policy? Is it independent or not? The Russians wanted it to stay neutral and demilitarised and in effect their colony.
And what I mean under actual Russian ideology is this:
I have started to heard about the "Serbian world" about half a year ago and at the start I was confused from where that idea originated.
The Serbian world includes Serbia, Bosnia and Montenegro and all the Serbs living in Croatia and other former Yugoslav countries.
But after the Russian agression I heard about the similar thing - the "Russian world" which is much older than the Serbian version.
Of course the Serbs tried to copy the Russians.
Putin now tries to install the concept of the "Russian World", a plan that was created in Moscow a several decades ago. It includes Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and all the countries where the Russians live
or the countries which were under the Soviet Union.
" Senior officials of the current Belgrade regime, as they claim, will try to control every territory wherever Serbs live, even by using militarily if it is necessary.
The Serbs, like other Balkan nations, live all over the world, particularly in countries of former Yugoslavia and the European Union.
The difference between the Serbian and Russian concepts is, among other things, is in the fact that Russia is the world superpower,
while the Serbia is one of the poorest countries in Europe. Losing an influence in neighbouring countries by promoting the concept of the “Russian world”,
Moscow revised its plans and sought to return to the relations with its neighbours like it was prior to launching the project of “Russian World”.
On the other hand, the Belgrade regime, which presents Serbia as a regional power, is in full swing of promoting so-called “Serbian world”,
which destabilises both, Serbia and Southeast Europe."
https://iges.ba/en/geopolitics/the-serbian-world-is-a-copy-of-the-russian-world-the-russian-world-in-moscows-strategy/ (August 6, 2021)
@Vladimir
Well, if Ukraine wasn't a real nation three weeks ago, it sure is now, thanks to Putin.
@ Vladimir
Thanks for the summary.
Obviously violence must be condemned, and in the West even people who distantly respected aspects of Putins gamesmanship are asking 'wtf' ? Unless he's dementing, there must be some factor which catalysed this, or a culmination of factors.
@ Gaska
I expect Belgian Neolithic to be I2a1b, just like Loschbour
BTW my brother, who lives in Sweden, was amongst the first to take 2 Ukrainian women & their kids. In East-Central Euro, I would look to countries like Hungary & Poland which are solid, to keep the peace, maybe integrate . This is the future for the region
Ukraine is the result of Lenin and Soviet Union.Τhe manipulations under Stalin's govrement lead to a very anti-Russian spirit.It is well known that a big part of the Ukranian population allied with Nazis during ww2 because of their anti-Soviet stance.They pretty much show Nazis as liberators...and they weren't the only in the eastern europe.Point is, that today we speaking...the west is using this anti-Russian behaviour from Ukranians to turn off the Russian economy and isolate Russians.Ukraine has zero reasons to join NATO and put nuclear weapons.They could had been a netural european country like Finland and Sweden.Could easily be European Union members like Poland and Lithuania.But the choose to elect a random non-Ukranian comedian whos fighting with so much passion for the interests of the Democratic party.And i am saying the Democratic party because under Trump's administration the whole world was very calm and peaceful.Whos winning from this war?Def not Russians and Ukranians...and ofc not Europe.What Ukraine has to realize is that Russia under Putin will never allow any other country close to him to join NATO.The same thing happened with other countries who were flirting with NATO(Georgia,Armenia etc).
Btw,it would be nice to discuss Ukranian genetics.Some Ukranian gedmatch kits i have seen from the western parts(Lviv etc) are very close to Poles.While gedmatches from eastern and southern areas can be different.Others closer to Western/Southwest Russians,while some southern areas showing some type of balkan(maybe Vlach?) admix.Its for sure a huge country and i am not really sure how homogenous they are.But, i would say on average they belong in the 'east slavic' genetic familly.A lot of I2din by ydna as well.
Lots of new Ukrainian samples in the G25, from all over Ukraine...
https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2019/07/getting-most-out-of-global25_12.html
But this is irrelevant to the concept of Ukrainian nationhood.
Like I just said, if Ukraine wasn't a real nation a couple of weeks ago, then it sure is now thanks to the war.
Look how united they are.
@Vladimir said-"This is ridiculous. There is no international law. If it existed, then all the presidents of the United States would be in the dock. Clinton for Belgrade, Bush for Iraq, Obama for Libya. Trump bombed Syria"
International law may not exist for the powerful, but I have to remind you that countries’ sovereignty, political independence, and territorial integrity are widely recognized principles, enshrined in the United Nations Charter. There is a clear prohibition on the threat or use of force between states, other than as authorized by the Security Council or for purposes of the right of self-defense “if an armed attack occurs”. A narrow understanding of anticipatory self-defense against an imminent armed attack has also been accepted by some international lawyers and policymakers as falling within the self-defense justification, as has a concept of protection of nationals abroad (for instance, in cases of hostage taking). None of the justifications offered by President Putin for the invasion of Ukraine — including protecting Russia from NATO’s eastern expansion or protection of ethnic Russians from alleged oppression by the Ukrainian government — could conceivably be understood as falling within the self-defense exception. No less problematic is Putin’s assertion that he is now coming to the aid of two republics in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine that Russia has recognized as independent in recent days. The right of peoples to self-determination is a fundamental right under international law. That means that any Russian ethnic minority in Ukraine has a right to determine its political status and pursue its economic, social, and cultural development. Yet, there is no right to unilaterally secede from a state and form a separate state. In recognition of states’ right to preserve their territorial integrity, secession is allowed only in extreme cases of repeated oppression or subjugation of the minority, leaving it with no other option to exercise “internal self-determination” in a meaningful way. International lawyers call this “remedial secession.”
In other words, if there is justice in the world Mr. Putin will be remembered as a war criminal and will have to be tried in an international court of justice. It may be the Russians themselves who will put an end to his tyranny. By the way I don't care if Bush, Obama and other US presidents are also guilty or not, that they have invaded other countries does not give the Russians the right to do what they are doing in Ukraine.
Dugin’s Eurasianism is not unique; this has been an ideological movement in Russia/Eastern Europe for well over a century (Nikolai Trubetzkoy, Lev Gumilyov, Mirsky, etc.). Dugin is more of an outcast these days; he was fired from his position at Moscow State University in 2014. He’s really nothing special, and his influence is quite minimal in 2022. After the fall of the USSR, former communist party members did develop a sort of nationalist, Eurasianist synthesis, along with aspects of developmentalism, authoritarianism, and criticism for Marxism and Leninism. These views were already prominent in the higher societal echelons of post-Soviet Russia. One unaddressed aspect here are the energy concerns. Germany and Russia were partnered to build Nord Stream 2. Now that that’s axed, Central Europe is much more under the sphere of American influence. Additionally, Germany has increased their defense budget; the military industrial complex must be having a field day. Russian and Central European/German partnerships are over for the foreseeable interim. The US state department’s great aggravating of this situation by holding NATO MAPs for Ukraine, and backing pro-Western Ukrainian governments, could very well be part of a greater plan. Russia regaining influence with central EU states as influential as Germany, was a real concern. Now that energy will come by way of Turkey and Israel (their pipeline project in the Eastern Mediterranean), and Russia is being drawn into a unipolar world with China (not tripolar), for the Chinese have deep monetary, financial, and business interests/connections in the west. They can’t be as severely cutoff unlike Russia. So it looks like Russia—if they do partner with China—will be more financially dependent on Beijing. Hard to see that this wasn’t part of a deeper scheme on the part of Washington’s foreign policy sharks, warhawks, neolibs, and neocons/rhinos. Since the 90s, the US establishment have been hell bent on preserving this West-Russia split. They had ample opportunities to develop Russia after the 1991 collapse, and bring them in, but instead they ransacked much of the country. There were even talks of admitting Russia into NATO in the mid-1990s. We were potentially looking at a Northern Hemispheric alliance, stretching from Alaska to Dezhnev. This all could have been easily avoided.
@Rob said-“BTW my brother, who lives in Sweden, was amongst the first to take 2 Ukrainian women & their kids”. “I expect Belgian Neolithic to be I2a1b, just like Loschbour”
Good for your brother, solidarity is going to be more necessary than ever in Europe, we have to give a future to more than 2.6 million refugees (may be 5 million) as long as they are not able to recover their lives. Here in Spain individuals are chartering buses to bring women and children. They do not deserve what is happening to them.
You have to read the thesis, there are two Mesolithic samples and the rest are Neolithic. One of the caves has a collective chimney burial attributed to the SOM culture (Seine Oise Marne)- Two of the individuals are R1b (3.250 approx) well dated several times. They apparently have about 25% steppe ancestry, but are very ancient (pre-CWC and even Yamnaya) and with a mitochondrial lineage typical of the steppes. The discussion has only just begun. By the way there are 4 other R1b (one well dated to 2777 BC) and the rest of the men are I2a (I don't remember the subclade right now).
AF007 (4,828-4,626 cal BP) is the oldest ancient individual from Western Europe having Steppe component and carrying R1b-M269 as Y-chromosome haplogroup marker. The overall coverage is a little lower than RISE563 but more than MX304. So maybe there is coverage of R-L51 subclades and maybe even R-L151 and R-P312 and R-U106 so we can have evidence of one of those being derived so we have additional evidence of all individuals in western Europe since about 5000 years ago that are derived for a subclade of L51 also have the Steppe component.
This darn war is probably going to cause a long delay in some studies that could have provided more data towards determining which general area R-L51 and it's subclades lived around the time the mutations first appeared.
@David
Thanks for being on the right side about the war and on the side of science in regards to Covid. It was relieving to see your posts.
@ history nerd
Don’t come here with your lies and propaganda expecting a welcome reception.
And yes I’m above you physically spiritually intellectually. I’ve called you
@Dospaises
you have to read the thesis, there are two R1b cases in a different site in layer4 (oldest) of the chimney burial-AF007 is more modern than the CWC in Bohemia, the other Belgian cases are 300 years older, i.e. we have more neolithic R1b farmers outside the CWC. I hope we can have access to the Bam files.
By the way all Europeans from the Neolithic to the present (including all R1b) have ancestry from Anatolian farmers (different percentages of course), I guess that means that IE originated in Anatolia right? You have to look for other more convincing arguments to demonstrate a steppe origin of R1b and IE.
I am reading a lot of conspiracy theory bullshit here. America is not some omnipresent force in the world which can topple governments and install puppets with a snap of its fingers. America has plenty of societal problems to deal with right now: Covid denialism, racial inequality, perverse profit motives in social media…etc.
All of Russias European neighbors have run to NATO begging to be let in (…wonder why). Ukrainian people have their own agency, and voted to move towards the west and away from the corruption and rot which is Russia. After Maidon in 2014, when the coward and theif Yanukovich fled to his master in Moscow, majority of Ukrainians voted to strengthen ties with the west.
Now Russian speaking Ukrainians, Ukrainian speakers, Muslims, Jews, Gypsies are all united under the Ukrainian flag. In just three weeks, Putin has done more to strengthen the Ukrainian national identity than Ukrainian leaders could do in thirty years. Ukraine will resist, Ukraine will force the occupiers of the land, and Russia will fall. Ukraine will be Putin’s grave. Slava Ukraina!
@History nerd
If we talk about me, I'm more of a cosmopolitan. I think the concepts of linguistic nationalism, and the state as a whole, are quite primitive. Therefore, any wars for national identity, preservation of the borders of states or expansion of the borders of states seem absurd to me. But, unfortunately, the reality is what it is. And you have to live in this reality.
@Gaska
Theoretically, you are certainly right. Although even theoretically there is a problem that is more primary. The integrity of the State or the right of nations to self-determination. But reality is a completely different matter. If in 1999 Clinton was convicted of a NATO attack on Serbia, in 2003 Bush was convicted of an attack on Iraq, in 2011 Obama was convicted of an attack on Libya, then maybe Putin was and did not dare to attack Ukraine now. Therefore, we need to be consistent here. Either no one can violate the UN principles, or everyone can.
@ ph2ter
such reasoning is quite strange. If Ukraine, being in the USSR, or Croatia, being in Yugoslavia, had the right to secede from the empires guided by the principle of the right of nations to self-determination, then why could not Crimea or Donbass, similarly guided by this principle, withdraw from Ukraine, and the Republika Srpska from Croatia. How and on the basis of what did these young states of Ukraine and Croatia imagine themselves to be empires? This paradox in logic is completely incomprehensible to me. At the same time, Kosovo may well withdraw from Serbia. In general, there is a completely understandable logic that has been around for thousands of years. If you are supported by a stronger empire, in this case the United States, then you have only rights, and if you do not support, then you have no rights.
@Gaska
First, of all I couldn't care less if R-L51 individuals with Steppe autosomal DNA in Western Europe first appeared in CWC or another culture. I just care that R-L51 individuals always have Steppe autosomal DNA.
The only two specimens that are defined as having been radiocarbon dated are the already mentioned AF007 and a much younger AF017. AF029, AF023, and AF011 have not been radiocarbon dated. AF023 and AF025 were in a lower layer than AF017 at Trou Al’Wesse but since they weren't radiocarbon dated we still don't know their actual dates. Layer 4 is dated to ~5,200 cal BP so it is possible that one of those specimens are that old. Like I said I don't care if they really are that old but I do care that the thesis does not specify that those individuals are from ~5,200 cal BP. Until then we can't assign an age to those specimens.
The only specimens that are derived for R-M269 or one of the subclades when coverage permitted are AF007, AF029, AF011, AF017, AF023. All of them belong to Neolithic-B and they all show to have Steppe autosomal DNA.
So all R-M269 derived individuals from the thesis also have Steppe autosomal DNA and AF007 (4,828-4,626 cal BP) is the oldest ancient directly radiocarbon dated individual from Western Europe with the Steppe component and R1b-M269 as Y-chromosome haplogroup marker. Further analysis will likely prove he is derived for R-L51, or inferred positive, due to being derived for a downstream SNP if coverage allows.
Historically, western Ukraine was Polish-Lithuanian and Habsburg, the center of the country and towards the Don by Cossacks, Crimea was conquered by Russia by Catherine the Great and was and is also Tatar territory and was incorporated into SSR Ukraine under Khrushchev and The east of Ukraine, especially the Donbass in the big cities, is Russian, but there was already a Ukrainian national movement in the 19th century, but as Davidski said, the war will weld you together even more, but all three (Russia, Belarus and Ukraine) have one thing in common They originated from Kievan Rus' but unfortunately this war will fuel resentments between them for years to come!
@Gaska
"By the way all Europeans from the Neolithic to the present (including all R1b) have ancestry from Anatolian farmers (different percentages of course), I guess that means that IE originated in Anatolia right? You have to look for other more convincing arguments to demonstrate a steppe origin of R1b and IE. "
R-L23 or any of it's subclades has never been found in a specimen that lacks Steppe autosomal DNA. It does not matter that R-L23 specimens have or don't have Anatolian farmer autosomal DNA. What matters is what they never lack. What also matters is that Steppe autosomal DNA has never appeared in western Europe prior the appearance of specimens with an R-L23 subclade. There has never been a specimen that is pure Anatolian farmer autosomal DNA that was positive for R-L23 or one of it's subclades between 8000 and 4000 years ago.
Slava Ukraini.
Unfortunately, a 'Greater xx'' is what might be needed for the Balkans. Bosnia is de facto 3 nations in one, non-unified. However, the international community feels Bosnia is owed its unity given their suffering (although the Serbs have their side of the story behind Srebrenica). W.r.t to the ph@ter's article link, I cant see Serbia throwing its weight around the Balkans as they are seeking EU integration (albeit half-heartedly amongst some of them).
At the moment, Macedonia & Greece look like model Republics - achieving diplomatic agreement and the extent of their tensions entailed putting up monuments of Alexander the Great. But with a population of 2 million, it's difficult to see what future R.N.Macedonia has, ever present possibility of tensions with Albanians within, poor economic situation, corrupt Govts.
It might have been the best if all those years ago if the A-H Empire was a modernised confederacy instead of a decaying one.. WWI & other conflicts until now might have been avoided
@Kiev
The US may not be “omnipresent” but it is the premier super power on the world stage, privately, publicly, culturally, militarily, and economically—especially in Europe. The US has been involved with the Ukraine since at least 1990 (not counting Cold War espionage). Much of the unrest in the US is thoroughly manufactured by her governmental, media and financial elite. The public are not some abstract living in a bubble, unaffected. Public opinion is easily molded by the higher echelons of society, that being academia, finance, business, government, and the media. Compare the Google search results for Jessica Doty Whitaker to that of George Floyd. Look at the American public’s shift in opinion on homosexual marriage (compare 2002 to 2020). It’s quite the change, and it’s directly the result of particular narratives facilitated by the aforementioned. The media, high finance, and the state are the ultimate narrative drivers and shifters.
You don’t ally yourself with other super powers, when you border a super power, this is just geopolitical reality. You are either completely neutral, or you fall under the sphere of someone’s influence. The government that came to power in 2014–the Maidon coup—was throughly linked with the US state department, George Soros, the Swedbank, NATO, etc. The elephant vs the whale analogy doesn’t suit modern geopolitics. The West and America aren’t simply a single stately body, they encompass dozens and dozens of different nodes of power, both private and public, all with the same general ideology and agenda. You don’t come under the sphere of influence of another socio-economic society/power, and not play by their rules, their ideology. That’s why if you look at USAID programs in Africa, you also see women’s and LGBT programs. There’s a reason why BLM protests broke out in Estonia, Lithuania, the UK, France, Finland, and Poland. These are the vassal states of the US, and being vassals they are the importers of American “culture” and politics, despite having nothing to do with it. There were BLM and rainbow flag banners in Kabul, Afghanistan. Rainbow flags drape US embassies and CIA buildings across the world. The various NPOs and NGOs in undeveloped nations, come ideologically, financially, and politically from the US and her vassal states in Western Europe. The US has hundreds of military bases around the globe; she’s an empire. This is the post-1945 and post-1989/1991 reality. Conspiracy is a meaningless word, and all that other nonsense you said about the US, all those issues are peddled by the rulers of American and western society, in finance, business, academia, government, and in media/entertainment.
It's better to be a "vassal" of the US than an actual vassal of Russia.
Poles have experience in these matters, and can compare the two experiences directly.
It’s better to not be a vassal of any empire, culturally, militarily, or financially. Americanization is a different type of cancer from brute, murderous Soviet conquest.
That's true and also the Baltic states, although in contrast to Poland belonged directly to the UdSSR, but also the former East Germany (DDR) can sing a song about it, but some things weren't bad about socialism either, but everyone wants their sovereignty and identity, the Communism is another story and not a good political form, as is National Socialism
:) What I like about Davidski is honesty. This is indeed the case. Despite the fact that Simon Stevin is absolutely right about the United States, however, all other alternatives look no better. That's why I don't support Putin. Not because he violated some mythical principles of the UN, which are always violated by the United States, not because there is now some kind of democratic regime in Ukraine, this regime is extremely authoritarian, where all opposition parties and the media are banned, but because Putin does not have a promising and attractive development concept that would be attractive, not only for Ukrainians, but also, what the hell is not joking, even for Poles. The Chinese model may be acceptable, but I would not say that it is better than the American one. From what we have now, it seems to me the most promising model of the European Union, but without NATO.
@Simon
I don't agree that Poland is a vassal of the US, at least not in any way that I understand the word.
Poland and the USA are two different worlds. It's really just an anti-Russian alliance.
Poland isn't even an average EU country as things stand right now.
Of course, Poland is a sovereign state today, just as it was between 1921 and 1939, but there is always a certain dependency, since an ally also always has to make a contribution
@Davidski
I forgot to mention that. That’s true, and I agree, but Poland has only been free of the Soviet yoke for 30 odd years. She’s still a relatively Catholic, traditionally Central/Eastern European, homogenous, West Slavic society. Compare her to her contemporaries in West Germany, Scandinavia, France, or the Netherlands. There is a strong financial, cultural, political, and elite influence that emanates from the Anglosphere, especially America, and it’s emanated for 100-150 years. I’m not using “vassal” in a traditional sense, but as a figure of speech when talking about the aforementioned points/nodes of Anglo-American influence and power.
I am not sure that the role of the US outpost in Eastern Europe adopted by Poland and the Baltic States is the right choice. Finland's strategy, in my opinion, is more promising.
Finland will join NATO, especially if Putin stays in power.
and Sweden is also thinking about joining NATO in this direction, but I think a special alliance should be promoted in Europe because, in the worst case, the USA could let Europe down because of its own problems (migration from Latin America, inflation,...)
@Zesty
Ukraine is the result of Lenin and Soviet Union.
Technically and partially true, but largely irrelevant to the situation.
Τhe manipulations under Stalin's government lead to a very anti-Russian spirit.
You mean the fact Stalin's government responsible for more Ukrainian deaths than the Nazis, who went there with the intent of creating a "Lebensraum" (so openly aimed for genocide)? Manipulations, sure....
It is well known that a big part of the Ukranian population allied with Nazis during ww2 because of their anti-Soviet stance. They pretty much show Nazis as liberators...and they weren't the only in the eastern europe.
Define big part. Definitely not the majority. And yes, they were not the only ones, let's not forget about the ton of Russian collaborates, some of them even operated a collaborate vassal state in Western Russia, where the Wehrmacht had minimal direct presence, because they were not needed. The Nazi found people who were willing to work to them everywhere.
(A part of the reason both in case of Ukrainians and Russians is that Stalin's regime was hated. And it was hated for a good reason.)
I think that in the future it is hardly possible to create something that was not in the past. The idea of building a wall in Eastern Europe is now obviously supported by both the elites of the United States and the European Union, and Putin's elites on the other hand. But this has never happened in history, and therefore I doubt that it will succeed in the future.
@Dospaises said-“First, of all I couldn't care less if R-L51 individuals with Steppe autosomal DNA in Western Europe first appeared in CWC or another culture. I just care that R-L51 individuals always have Steppe autosomal DNA.
To understand the genetic changes that occurred in Western Europe (3.500-2.000 BC) you have to study not only the genetic component of the samples analyzed, but also the archaeological context. An intelligent analysis of these disciplines can lead you to solutions in other disciplines such as anthropology and linguistics. None of the R1b Neolithic farmers found to date in mainland Europe are related (not even remotely) to the Yamnaya culture or to the CWC- The cases you mention in Switzerland (Aesch, Auvernier and Burgaschisee) are buried in dolmens typical of western megalithic culture, the Belgian cases in collective burial caves with pottery typical of SOM culture, the cases in Iberia in collective burials typical of the megalithic culture and the cases of the CWC in Bohemia are doubtful because some have NO grave goods, and others have grave goods typical of the Central European neolithic cultures (including one battle axe type A)-Forget for a moment the phantasmagoric autosomal steppe signal, how do you interpret this situation? in my opinion there are only two alternatives
1-If R1b-M269>L51 has its origin in any steppe culture, its sporadic appearance in typical Western Neolithic sites means that there were no massive migrations but that certain solitary explorers reached that culture with or without their women. In this case it is materially impossible that those few individuals were able to change the language spoken by European Neolithic farmers. They simply acculturated immediately and integrated into those cultures by burying themselves with their relatives. In other words, goodbye to the linkage of R1b with the spread of IE in mainland Europe.
2-If R1b-M269>L51 does not have its origin in the steppes, its scarcity in the European fossil record is easily explained due to the evident bottleneck that this lineage suffered during millennia. In this case this marker will appear sporadically in any site of any European Neolithic culture (including the Balkans and Northern Europe). After 2500 BC, the founder effect of certain subclades in certain territories and the scarcity of population throughout Europe explains the fact of the ubiquity of the famous steppe marker.
If you ignore archaeology you will only have a partial explanation of what happened and you will surely reach a wrong solution. In my opinion the argument of steppe ancestry in all R1b under L23 is a naive argument.
clearly there were also so-called Foreign SS units such as Ukrainian, Tartar and even towards the end of the war two Russian divisions out of hatred of Stalin's policies and fear of returning to be considered traitors to the Soviet Union, but the policies suggested Nazi Germany from the start to enslave the Slavic peoples to create living space for so-called "Germans" in the east
Seems like Russia's leaders really do need to grow to accept that Russian power in East-Central Europe after the mid 20th century for a span of not much more than 50 years was the product of historical accidents of the World Wars. It was by chance and it's not something that's gonna come back. There is no inevitable reason why East-Central Europe will be a vassal of Russia, with the Americans or without them. Even Russian power in Central Asia and defacto sovereignty in its Asian lands will likely wane in the face of China.
Dospaises said-“The only two specimens that are defined as having been radiocarbon dated are the already mentioned AF007 and a much younger AF017. AF029, AF023, and AF011 have not been radiocarbon dated. AF023 and AF025 were in a lower layer than AF017 at Trou Al’Wesse but since they weren't radiocarbon dated we still don't know their actual dates. Layer 4 is dated to ~5,200 cal BP so it is possible that one of those specimens are that old. Like I said I don't care if they really are that old but I do care that the thesis does not specify that those individuals are from ~5,200 cal BP. Until then we can't assign an age to those specimens.
Of course, we can assign a valid dating to these specimens. Fichera mentions two dates taken in the chimney burial
1-5.280-5160 cal BP-Homo sapiens 5th left metatarsal-Late neolitihic-3.270 BC
2-5.320-5280 cal BP-Homo sapiens 5th left metatarsal-Late neolitihic-3.350 BC
But you can also check the dating done by Christopher Meiklejohn (2014).
3-5.260-4.980 cal BP-Homo sapiens 5th left metatarsal-Late neolithic—3.170 BC
4-5.310-5.080 cal BP-Homo sapins 5th left metatarsal-Late neolithic—3.245 BC
The bones used belong to layer 4 and only three individuals are buried there. One is a woman (mtDNA-H1c) and the other two are R1b men, ergo it is evident that at least one of them is correctly dated-The average of these four dates is 3.259 BC- and fully coincides with the typical SOM ceramics found at the site AF025-Trou Al’Wesse has a steppe mitochondrial marker which would explain its small percentage of steppe signal. In any case, doesn't it seem strange to you that those first solitary explorers appeared in Western Europe before the Yamnaya culture and the CWC existed? What is the culture of origin of these individuals? Why did they abandon their steppe customs, make SOM pottery and bury themselves in a collective burial cave? If they are recent arrivals why they have lost 80% of their steppe ancestry? wouldn't it be common sense that the first explorers should be full steppe? In short, you have a Neolithic farmer AF023-R1b-M269 from the SOM culture dated to 3,258 BC with 25% steppe ancestry (rather CHG according to Fichera)
@ slumbery
There were Nazi supporters in all over the EU during WW2. Even in Greece there were many who supported and allied with Germans and Italians because of the fear of communism.
Btw, Ukranian Nazis did a lot of bad things To Poles and Jews. They were one of the most loyal population in the eastern front for Hitler. But, I can understand Ukranians and their stance during WW2.Stalin and his policies.Thats how the anti-soviet/Russian spirit created.
Communism under Stalin was very brutal period. A lot of people killed and thats the main reason why most Eastern Europeans today do not really like Russia...and they prefer the Anglo-Saxon alliance. But, they should be more careful like Hungary is under Obran. IMO Eastern Europe should not become Western and Northern europe by demographics, on social issues and so on. Hungary follows the best example being politically between the west and Russia. Europe needs Russia like Russia needs europe despite what happened in the past.And ofc Europe should stop being the pet of USA. I think the elections in USA will bring Trump back and things are going to fix for the best. The democratic party is responisble for what is happening today with pushing Ukraine to join in NATO. I am pretty sure if they continue being in the office we will see a new war maybe somewhere in the balkans.
@Rob
You are completely in the dark with your belief that this is some kind of American über-conspiracy and they use Europeans and Ukrainians as mere puppets. Europe reacted this way, because they already started to feel Ukraine as a part of themselves and perceived the Russian invasion as attack against Europe. And also because in the last decade Putin made serious efforts to harm the integrity of the EU (and if possible destroy it entirely) and they just had enough.
One of the main grievance Putin toots that American and generally "Western" influence expanded aggressively into the Eastern Europe, even into former Soviet countries. Note however that this is only a problem if you see the USA and the West as your enemy to begin with and see a bunch of independent countries as temporarily lost parts of your Imperium. That is, the exact imperialist thinking they always accused the West with. That accusation was definitely not without reason, but still, the pot calling the kettle back.
@Dospaises said-The only specimens that are derived for R-M269 or one of the subclades when coverage permitted are AF007, AF029, AF011, AF017, AF023. All of them belong to Neolithic-B and they all show to have Steppe autosomal DNA. So all R-M269 derived individuals from the thesis also have Steppe autosomal DNA and AF007 (4,828-4,626 cal BP) is the oldest ancient directly radiocarbon dated individual from Western Europe with the Steppe component and R1b-M269 as Y-chromosome haplogroup marker. Further analysis will likely prove he is derived for R-L51, or inferred positive, due to being derived for a downstream SNP if coverage allows
Fichera's thesis has been embargoed for two years (I don't know why) and then Papac's paper on Bohemia had not been published. So AF007 (2777 BC) is not the oldest R1b-M269 in mainland europe. It never has been because it is officially
*PNL001 (2.896 BC)-Plotiště nad Labem_LX, Bohemia-HapY-R1b-U106
@Dospaises said-What also matters is that Steppe autosomal DNA has never appeared in western Europe prior the appearance of specimens with an R-L23 subclade.
You should read Furtwängler's paper on Switzerland and Patterson's paper on England-The steppe autosomal signal appears before 3,000 BC in some Western European sites linked to the I2a lineage. How can you claim that the signal is an exclusive issue of that R-L23 lineage when there is also I2a-L699 in the steppes? How can you think that absolutely all the descendants of L23 kept that signal for generations when just 100 years can be enough to erase that (or any other signal) from Autosomal DNA?
@Rob, Zesty & Steppe
I'm not sure why you're bringing up WWII, NATO and/or America?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has nothing to do with any of these things.
There are three main reasons for the invasion:
- Russia sees Ukraine as its territory and wants it back, and whether Ukraine joins NATO or not is irrelevant as long as Ukraine has any sort of ability to defend itself
- Russia and Belarus can't afford to see a democratic East Slavic country, because this will give Russians and Belorussians dangerous ideas
- Russia and Belarus can't afford to see a wealthy EU member East Slavic country, because this will give Russians and Belorussians dangerous ideas.
Of course you are right, the idea of democracy would be dangerous for Russia, but there is always a history, there are politicians who like to pull up old things
The main reason Russia invaded Ukraine has to to with the agreement of Ukraine to become a NATO member. The relations before Democrats come in office were not that bad between Russia and Ukraine.They were actually pretty good. Ukraine will never be a wealthy and advanced country by joining NATO.The only union that it can help it to become wealthier it is the european union. What is the reason of NATO being active today? Isnt communism dead? Why ukraine should be a member of this alliance Whos first priority is to expanded more Eastern as it gets closer to Russia?What happened to the Minsk agreement? Why USA needs so bad all these former communistic countries in Eastern Europe to be under their rule? The answer is to souround Russia. They wanted even to take Georgia in their alliance and we all know how that ended. The USA and NATO cheated the Minsk agreement. And now Putin needs somehow to protect his borders. Imagine Ukraine being a NATO member with american millitary bases and nuclear weapons around. Russia even did the mistake allowing the Baltic countries to join in NATO. They wont let it happen again in Ukraine and Finland.
Slava Ukrayini! - Heroyam Slava!
@Davidski
Alas, modern Ukraine was neither rich nor democratic. The only thing Ukrainians have is promises spread through the media that they will soon live like in Germany, although in fact it is the only republic from the USSR that has not reached the level of the aggregate gross product of 1990, and the most successful time for Ukraine was during the rule of Yanukovych. Regarding the thesis that Russia considers Ukraine its territory, partly yes. But this is not the reason for the war. Russia and Belarus consider their territory, but do not attack. The immediate reason is rather an exit from the sphere of influence, and not just to a neutral position, but a transition to the enemy camp. But globally, of course, this is an existential contradiction with the generalized West. I don't even think that the problem is the need to follow in the wake of the United States, because in the wake of China, as I understand it, Putin is not ashamed to follow. There are some civilizational differences here. If we talk about the population, this point of view is now held by about 60%, and 30% of them are the nuclear electorate, extremely conservative, mostly people aged 60+. Another 30% is the provincial electorate, which always supports the government until the standard of living deteriorates dramatically. Of the remaining 20%, mostly young people aged 30 are generally against the war and see nothing wrong with following in the wake of the United States. The remaining 20% are people aged 40-50 years, mostly about my views, a wavering electorate. I don't think that the situation in Ukraine is significantly different, and if we talk about eastern and southern Ukraine, then the situation is practically the same as in Russia. The conservative electorate will be driven underground there, the group supporting the government out of convenience is larger there, the pro-Western electorate is also larger, there are fewer vacillators.
@Rich S.,
I feel sorry for your wife for the hardship of COVID; as well as for the whole family. I personally survived the COVID disease twice in three and two weeks, despite the vaccines… I feel that thank God and these vaccines I live!
Are you interested in the genetic sources of risk of severe COVID survival and excess of Covid death in Central and Eastern Europe?
@Gaska,
Do not blame the low number of people vaccinated in our countries for the high number of deaths per million inhabitants. There are other factors at work in this geographic region (of the Three-Seas).
Rich S. and Gaska, do you know the publication of H. Zeberg and S. Paabo 2020?
The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthal from Vindija cave,
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3.pdf
More than a dozen countries (headed by Peru - due to the European origin of the original population of Lima) have the highest mortality rate in COVID in the world. What are the reasons? The Neanderthal from the Vindija Cave (Croatia) donated to the local population and finally to the first Praindo-Europeans a 49.4 kb segment on the third chromosome 3p21.31, which causes harmful linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the genes. The authors summarized:
"With respect to the current pandemic, it is clear that gene flow from Neanderthals has tragic consequences."
The distribution map of this segment (Fig. 3) is in line with the migration map of Praindo-Europeans (the authors were not aware of this!), Including some small populations in Central America, e.g. Peru, sic! (see Kaja et al. 2021: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.451425v1.full.pdf, Fig S8A
The map of the excess deaths in Europe in November 2021 is very similar to the outcomes of the entire pandemic.
http://www.tropie.tarnow.opoka.org.pl/images/nadialny-zgony-11-2021.gif
@Vladimir
Poland wasn't democratic or rich before 1989, and now it is, at least compared to Russia and Ukraine.
Things change quickly when countries pivot away from Russia to the EU.
So what's your point?
@ Vladimir said:
such reasoning is quite strange. If Ukraine, being in the USSR, or Croatia, being in Yugoslavia, had the right to secede from the empires guided by the principle of the right of nations to self-determination, then why could not Crimea or Donbass, similarly guided by this principle, withdraw from Ukraine, and the Republika Srpska from Croatia.
My answer:
Because Croatia was one of the constituents of the Yugoslav Federation. You know, Yugoslavia was a federation of states which had constitutional right to separate and become independent. And Crimea and Donbass are not and never been states. Ukraine is not a federation of states.
@ Vladimir said:
How and on the basis of what did these young states of Ukraine and Croatia imagine themselves to be empires? This paradox in logic is completely incomprehensible to me.
My answer:
What are you talking about. What empires? You mean that every contry thinks that it is some kind of empire like Russia with their emporer Putin?
@ Vladimir said:
At the same time, Kosovo may well withdraw from Serbia. In general, there is a completely understandable logic that has been around for thousands of years. If you are supported by a stronger empire, in this case the United States, then you have only rights, and if you do not support, then you have no rights.
My answer:
In Yugoslavia Kosovo and Vojvodina where autonomous provinces which were treated as Republics (they were part of Serbia only formally). Their representatives were part of 8-headed Presidency made of 6 representatives of Republics and 2 representatives of Autonomous provinces. Serbia lost Kosovo in war which was started by Serbia.
@ Slumberry
My parents are Yugoslav and were brought up (in the 80s) with the view that the USA, like other countries, are Allies. In WW2, this region saved western pilots & helped Jews flee Europe. yugoslavia was never solidly in behind the Iron Curtain, so we didn't see the impact of the Soviet system. My family in turn had moved to the West long before the 90s strife.
One can have graded and complex views of everything that's going on. Like I said, as soon as Putin invaded Ukraine he crossed a line. We all have some vague understanding of international intrigue, even though we prefer ancient history, so it's no point pretending that it's unilateral. I'm not sure how my views are 'in the dark', when they're based on western political scientists and militarians which I had linked here have stated they've stoked the fire. But overall, the people have spoken and you guys have made good points. Respect to all Hombres
@Zesty
There was absolutely no agreement for Ukraine to join NATO.
There wasn't even a slim chance of Ukraine joining NATO within the next decade, or two, or three.
That's a fact, not even worth debating, so it can't be the real reason for Russian's invasion of Ukraine.
@StP
correctlink:
http://www.tropie.tarnow.opoka.org.pl/images/nadmiarowe-zgony-11-2021.gif
@Davidski
Ukraine left the USSR in 1991, and now it's 2022. But there are no special successes either in democratization or in welfare. And objectively speaking, modern Ukraine lags behind in almost all indicators from Soviet Ukraine 30 years ago in terms of fertility, mortality, income, the level of development of healthcare and industrial production. To be honest, I do not believe that Ukraine alone and in confrontation with Russia could solve the problems that it has not solved over the past 30 years. The only thing that could really change the situation in Ukraine for the better is massive assistance from the European Union and the United States, something like a Marshall Plan with its inclusion in the European Union.
I’ve addressed the NATO issue already: “there has been a significant US/NATO encroachment in the Ukraine (the MAP in 2008), and especially after the 2014-coup, with the appointment of Arseniy Yatsenuk. Yatsenuk established the Open Ukraine in 2007, an organization that was, and still is aligned [partnered] with NATO, Chatham House, [Swedbank, Soros] jand the United States Department of State. Ukraine made several bids to join NATO from 2014-2021; you had the 2021 Brussels summit, where they tried to put into place Ukraine’s Membership Action Plan.” The new government in 2014 was connected to the West and NATO, and made joining it a priority, as well as the reclamation of the Russian speaking territories: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-parliament-coalition-agreement/26703123.html
https://eu-ua.kmu.gov.ua/novyny/zakon-pro-zminy-do-konstytuciyi-shchodo-kursu-na-vstup-v-yes-i-nato-nabuv-chynnosti: “In Ukraine, the Law of Ukraine on Amendments to the Constitution on the Course of Accession to the EU and NATO has entered into force. The relevant document was published in the Voice of Ukraine on February 20. The law enters into force on the day following the day of its publication, namely: February 21. Thus, amendments were made to the preamble to the Basic Law, three articles and transitional provisions on Ukraine's strategic course towards membership in the European Union and NATO. In particular, the fifth paragraph of the preamble after the words "civil harmony on the land of Ukraine" was supplemented with the words "and reaffirming the European identity of the Ukrainian people and the irreversibility of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic course."
This is from the 2021 Brussels Summit: “We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process; we reaffirm all elements of that decision, as well as subsequent decisions, including that each partner will be judged on its own merits. We stand firm in our support for Ukraine’s right to decide its own future and foreign policy course free from outside interference.’
@David
You saying that one morning Putin woke up and said Why i dont make a war with Ukraine?
Can you also explain to me why these Neonazi groups in the eastern parts of Ukraine were Targeting Russian speaking communities?Do you know how many Russian speaking folks have been killed? It was one of the major reasons for the Crimean issue and 2014 events.
@StP
A quote from the very beginning of the article you linked: "Here we show that the risk
is conferred by a genomic segment of around 50 kilobases in size that is inherited from
Neanderthals and is carried by around 50% of people in south Asia and around 16% of
people in Europe."
So according to you East-Central Europeans die at a higher rate because of an allele that is modal in South Asia.
Also you cannot explain mortality differences between East-Central and Western Europe (the difference in question above) with this, because as far Neanderthal ancestry concerned they are identical.
And that allele is hardly from Vindija Neanderthal group specifically anyway. The article does not say that either, they just use that genome as a reference.
------------------
BTW, in Hungary there are two reasons for the relatively high mortality compared to Western Europe.
1. The sad state of the healthcare system combined with the weak health of the people in general.
2. The fact that the testing frequency is much lower than in the West, so there is a much bigger number of unidentified cases and the infection numbers are pretty much imaginary. This leads to a higher mortality rate among the registered infected.
the capture of Ukraine has several aspects to a resource (focus on Donbass) but also the historical aspect of the Soviet Union and the associated Ukraine, or rather, from a Russian perspective, Ukraine as part of Russia. And also as a demonstration of power that Russia is still part of the world stage of the great powers, since it feels threatened by the NATO countries and Afghanistan by stationed US troops and allies, however, the sphere of influence of the US army in Afghanistan is over and generally the The United States is increasingly retreating from focal points and China will soon have more influence in Central Asia than the United States has ever had, but there will still be radical Islamic forces there, making it an easy task for China. But China also wants to have an influence on Europe and Ukraine as part of Russia would be able to do so. But the wars of the 21st century will mostly be about resources and control. Hegemony in world politics will change significantly.
@Simon and Zesty
In order to join NATO, Ukraine has to be accepted by NATO, and that wasn't happening, and there wasn't any guarantee by NATO that it was ever going to happen.
Ukraine did have close contacts with NATO, but there's nothing unusual about that because it shares its border with NATO countries.
So the NATO argument is a straw man argument.
@Vladimir
Do you agree that for Ukraine to join the EU it would first have to bring its political institutions into line with EU laws?
And do you agree that after Ukraine joined the EU it would become a much wealthier country?
If so, what's the problem?
@Zesty
How many?
BTW, Putin did not just woke up with the idea of war. He was pretty much in war against the EU for a decade. He founded and logistically supported anti-EU right wing radical (including neo-Nazi) groups all around Europe and kept up an aggressive disinformation campaign to cause chaos. They even had an antivax campaign going on before the pandemic, just for the purpose of sheer harm. (He is not actually antivax.) The Ukrainian war is just a logical culmination of the direction he took.
And this have multiple roots, but one of them is that he lost popularity in Russia after the economic crisis, so he started to cheat the elections and aggressively suppressing the opposition. His fight against the western influence and ultimately his decision that the EU is his enemy in great part comes from this.
@Daviaski
Personally, I agree, but I'm not Putin, so far :)
@Davidski
In what way was that not happening? That’s not a straw man regardless. Ukraine outlined in their own constitution plans to join NATO. Ukraine had NATO affiliations all throughout their own government in 2014-2022, and the US had military advisors in the country up until last month. The Brussels summit of 2021 (like the 2008 summit) literally said: “We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance [NATO] with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process; we reaffirm all elements of that decision, as well as subsequent decisions, including that each partner will be judged on its own merits.”
The Membership Action Plan (MAP): “a NATO programme of advice, assistance and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the Alliance…Participation in the MAP helped prepare the seven countries that joined NATO in the second post-Cold War round of enlargement in 2004 (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) as well as Albania and Croatia, which joined in April 2009. Montenegro, which joined the MAP in December 2009, became a member of the Alliance in June 2017. The Republic of North Macedonia, which had been participating in the MAP since 1999, joined NATO in March 2020…Currently, Bosnia and Herzegovina is participating in the MAP, having been invited to do so in 2010. At the time, Allied foreign ministers called on the authorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina to resolve a key issue concerning the registration of immovable defence property to the state. At their meeting in December 2018, foreign ministers decided that NATO is ready to accept the submission of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s first Annual National Programme under the MAP. The registration of immovable defence property to the state remains essential.”
Ukraine was in the early stages of joining NATO, just like all the aforementioned nations. Both the 2008 and 2021 NATO summits said Ukraine “will become a member of the Alliance.” Russia’s time of invasion is pertinent; it was before there could have been some serious Western hardware and resources at Ukraine’s disposal. From a strategic and national security perspective, I don’t see why Russia would wait a decade for Ukraine to be fully admitted into NATO. It was now or never.
@Simon
It wasn't happening, despite of what Ukraine wanted, because Ukraine had no say in the process.
Only NATO could've made it happen, and NATO didn't want Ukraine.
Ukraine did have a relationship with NATO, but it would be very strange if Ukraine didn't have a relationship with NATO considering that it shares a border with NATO.
If NATO really wanted to threaten Russia, it didn't need Ukraine to do that, because NATO warships and submarines can flatten major Russian cities in minutes by launching cruise missiles from the Baltic and Black Seas.
So like I said, the NATO argument wasn't the reason why Russia invaded Ukraine, because the Russians were fully aware of the above mentioned points.
@Slumbery
You are Ukranian or just brainwashed from the western propaganda media?The Russian economy was fine.Do you really believe that Putin is such an idiot to make a war,destroy the Russian economy and become isolated from the rest of the world because of Ukraine...lol?Seriously you believe this?Take a look to what Ukranians did to the Russian speaking communities all these years with their neonazi/Anti-Russian far right groups and come again.You elected a comedian whos nothing else but a pet of the Democratic party and you expect Putin to stay apathetic and watchig?Plss,answer my question.What is the role of NATO today?Isn't communism over?Why NATO is still active?Also tell me why Russia and Ukraine during Trump's presidency had okay relations and when the Democratic party took the office the relations got down?Maybe because these Democrats pushing Ukraine(and not only) to become a member of NATO?Maybe because they winning from a war in europe?This Zelensky plays the game of USA and its obvious that this person has nothing to do with politics.Some random comedia of Judean background come to rule Ukraine from nowhere....Yeah,okay lol!!!!
@Davidski
I am pretty sure the main reason why NATO got the cold feet about accepting Ukraine is the fact that parts of Ukraine were under Russian occupation. It was an impossible situation, because until there is Russian occupation Ukraine joining the NATO would pretty much automatically mean war with Russia. So from the perspective of the NATO the situation had to be resolved in some way first.
But it is not that the NATO did not have the intent on principle. I'd even say that Putin preempted the NATO from accepting Ukraine by the (then limited) invasion.
The EU is another question. Unfortunately Ukraine was not ready for that (yet). Noweher near. But there are virtually no economic or legal requirements to join NATO.
No, archeologically, the Antes not only didn’t disappear, but even developed. Ulichs and Tivertsy, their majority, moved to the north-west of Ukraine, those who stayed were absorbed by the Vlachs. And you seem to have forgotten about Brodnici, Berladnici, Bolokhovians, Galician “Exile” (Vygontsy).
Cossacks were not small in number, Cossack register (1649) include 40 thousand people, and these are only those that were included. Plus, Ukrainians peasants had a very high birth rate
Macarius III Ibn al-Za'im in his travels wrote:
“It may be noted, that we saw in the dwelling-houses of this country not only men, but animals and birds; and we were greatly surprised at the prosperity that shewed itself among them. In the house of each of the married men you might count ten children; and most of them had white hair on their heads, so that we used to call them Sheikhs, from their grey appearance…..What can we say more characteristic of this happy nation, than that during the last two years there have been killed of them in the wars some tens of thousands ; captured by the Tartars some thousands; destroyed by the plague more multitudes than have been counted, amidst its ravages among them, and its quick removal of such crowds of them to the heavenly abodes: and yet, with all this, they are like grains of sand, and more numerous than the stars. It must be, that their women conceive and bring forth three or four times a year, and bear each time three or four at a burden. But the real truth is, as we were informed, that this country allows no woman to be barren; and this is a circumstance perfectly evident, and true, and in every man's experience.”
Zaporozhians Cossacks were settled in Kuban lands not in majority, mostly “Little Russian” peasants who voluntarily enrolled in the Cossacks.
“the policy of Ukrainization of the cities of eastern and southern Ukraine, which had previously been entirely Russian”
This is not entirely true, on this Russian site you can see the 1897 census (by language) of the Russian Empire by provinces and cities
http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/ssp/rus_lan_97.php?reg=40
You mentioned Ukrainization, but what about the centuries of Russification? Valuev Circular etc. In the Ukrainian SSR, there was also Russification, by 1987 there were 2 Ukrainian schools and 152 Russians in Kharkiv, in Simferopol, Donetsk, Luhansk, Nikolaev there were - 0 Ukrainian schools, and this is not because there were all Russians in these cities. There were 66 Ukrainian schools and 26 Russian schools in Ukrainian-speaking Lviv.
strange Ukrainization.
@Davidski
“Only NATO could've made it happen, and NATO didn't want Ukraine.”
Where was it stated that NATO didn’t want Ukraine? Why were they affiliated with the 2014-2022 government? Why are they still affiliated with said government? Why were US troops in Ukraine up until the end of February? If they didn’t want Ukraine why did NATO state: “we reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance [NATO] with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process.” The MAP is a process countries joining the organization go through to meet their needs before being accepted. Why would NATO not deny them membership if they didn’t want them? Belarus shares a border with NATO countries, and yet they aren’t applying for MAPs, neither is Finland, Austria, or Sweden. They work with NATO, and they’re in the Partnership for Peace (PfP), but they aren’t—as of now anyway—applying and being accepted for MAPs, unlike Ukraine.
@ph2ter
My answer:
Because Croatia was one of the constituents of the Yugoslav Federation. You know, Yugoslavia was a federation of states which had constitutional right to separate and become independent. And Crimea and Donbass are not and never been states. Ukraine is not a federation of states.
This is not an argument. I will not speak for Yugoslavia, but according to the law of the USSR, in order for the republic to withdraw from the USSR, a referendum of the entire USSR, and not just Ukraine, had to be held. Surely there was the same law in Yugoslavia. So the legitimacy of Ukraine's exit, as well as other republics from the USSR, was absent. Or rather, it was exactly the same as the legitimacy of the withdrawal of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea from Ukraine or the Donetsk region from Ukraine.
@Davidski
Generally agree with your comments. A little surprised at your neutrality since I think little Stalin could come for Poland next.
LOL @ some of these comments
-Anti-US / Anti-Euro rhetoric. Guess what, China and Russia also have colonies - see Xinjiang, Taiwan, all of eastern Russia. Nice try to make western Euros the bogeyman.
-Ukrainian "neo-Nazis". Oh I'm sure all 44 million Ukrainians are "neo-Nazis" which required a full-scale invasion on civilians. If you're buying this kind of rationale, you need serious help.
-Ukraine should be able to join NATO without Putin's permission. Don't care.
The "Great Reset" can be the elimination of two of the biggest totalitarian thugs of modern time. Might be a good opportunity if we don't all die with nukes first.
@Zesty
And really. How many of these Ukrainian "neo-Nazis" exist in Ukraine today. How much carnage are they actually causing? Sounds like a gang. As you know because you probably live in EU, North America or Australia that gangs are a problem everywhere. A few hundred people would never be an excuse for an all out war killing civilians in a country of 44 million people. It's absolutely RIDICULOUS.
@David, @Simon - I'd just at the if wanting to join NATO was a legit casus belli, that would mean Russia would be justified to invade basically the whole of Eastern Europe. I hope we can all see that they don't.
@Slumbery
„So according to you East-Central Europeans die at a higher rate because of an allele that is modal in South Asia”.
1) Modal is in Europe! Previously, genomes from South Asia (N. Guineai Oceania) were considered modal. And this thesis was matched with the idea that the 49.4 kb segment was dispersing in contemporaries from there to Europe. The thesis was also adjusted: first the negative selection of this segment (because it is not near Altai), then the positive one (because it is in excess in Bangladesh and New Guinea.
But the Plank Institute is learning to distinguish more precisely. He will probably learn that the Segment's migration route is the Proto-Indo-European migration route from Europe to India, Bangladesh and further east to New Guinea.
2) January 13, 2022 at the MUB Conference (Medical University of Bialystok).
Prof. M. Moniuszko and prof. M. Kwaśniewski gave lectures on "Risk factors of severe course of Covid-19".
On the basis of the Polish genome pool from 1,500 COVID-19 patients in the scope of the tasks of the Medical Research Agency, it was stated that "Our research has shown an increase in the frequency of the genetic variant, predisposing to the severe course of COVID-19. We have 14 percent, in the whole of Europe about 8 percent, but in India, for example, it is 27 percent. We are also geographically predisposed to a different extent. "
3) It takes into account what we already know about the Proto-Indo-European origin of early migrations also of some small populations to the Central American region (this is indicated in tables B. Khvorykh et al. 2020 and the work of Kaja et al. 21, Admixture Fig. S-8A and S-8B)
„Also you cannot explain mortality differences between East-Central and Western Europe (the difference in question above) with this, because as far Neanderthal ancestry concerned they are identica”
Neanderthal origins come from individual events across a wide geographic and temporal space - say about 100,000 years. We already know that.
„And that allele is hardly from Vindija Neanderthal group specifically anyway. The article does not say that either, they just use that genome as a reference.”
Zeberg and Paabo, as we read in this paper, tightened Neanderthal donors of the 49.04 kb segment to the Neanderthal from the Vindija cave (45-50 thousand YBP). The authors found genetic distinguishing marks for an ancestor from Vindija.
„BTW, in Hungary there are two reasons for the relatively high mortality compared to Western Europe.
The sad state of the healthcare system combined with the weak health of the people in general.
The fact that the testing frequency is much lower than in the West, so there is a much bigger number of unidentified cases and the infection numbers are pretty much imaginary.
This leads to a higher mortality rate among the registered infected”.
It is not about Hungary itself, but Central and Eastern Europe !!!
Here is the global ranking of excess deaths in COVID-19 as of today per 1Million inhabitants:
1)Peru 6268; 2)Bulgaria 5262; , 3)Bosnia 4816 ; 4)Hungary 4642; 5)Macedonia 4390; 6)Montenegro 4287; 7)Georgia 4167, 8)Croatia 3780, 9)Czechia 3645; 10)Slovakia 3468; 11)Romania 3385; (San Marino), 12)Lithuania 3251; 13)Slovenia 3085; (Brazil), 14)Poland 3003; (Gibraltar) (USA) 15)Latvia 2941; 16)Armenia 2885; 17)Moldova 2824.
We are only interested in the clear number of excess deaths compared to the 2019 predictor year
Each hospital stay and death is tested several times; and ultimately, excess deaths count!
First, hitting the scientific aspect, one of the greatest scientific tragedies of the war is the loss of specimens that are irreplaceable. We are also seeing a relocation of Russian and Ukrainian scientists unprecedented since the 1930s. Most big scientific collaborations in high energy physics and astrophysics have Russia collaborators and all of those projects are in peril.
Second, while Plan A may have been a swift, bloodless conquest of Ukraine, I think that Plan B was always to get international recognition of Russian control of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea by giving Ukraine a "bloody nose" and then backing off. It may get that. But Russia vastly underestimated the extent to which its ill provoked invasion would make it an international pariah and deeply wound its core economy. The path back to normalcy for Russia is getting harder and harder to see with each passing week.
Third, whatever the "true" reason for the invasion was, the claims of a desire for "denazification" of Ukraine (which has a Jewish President) and a fear of military threats from Ukraine are terrifying because it is so absurd and yet Putin has nuclear weapons and is threatening to use them. While hard to quantify, the risk of global nuclear war has never been greater. The utter lawlessness of the invasion has cast doubt on Russia's potential involvement in any international order until it experiences regime change which is why the economic sanctions and private boycotts by big business have been so strong. Even China, while sympathetic, can't justify supporting it strongly - the risk of backlash from the rest of the world that it does much more business with is too great.
Fourth, the extent to which the credibility and quality of the Russian military and intelligence apparatus has been proven to be exaggerated does huge long range strategic harm to Russia. Its invasion has been full of "rookie mistakes" like troops running out of gas and food and getting list at the outset. Russia has few guided munitions, can't secure air superiority, has a large proportion of outdated gear, and isn't well trained. Its military incompetence has made it resort to brutal civilian harming carnage. A weakened Russian economy will limit its ability to restore its military to even the pre-invasion baseline. Without credible conventional forces though, the temptation to resort to nukes grows.
Fifth, this has created an immense boost for non-fossil fuel options (renewables, nuclear, increased energy efficiency, electric vehicles) in the rest of Europe.
Historical observation: We still haven't completely finished sorting out the demise of the Ottoman Empire. The demise of the USSR will also take a long time to sort out.
Also, I agree with Davidski that the Russian military action has strengthened the Ukrainian sense of nationhood. I'd also note that the 2014 military actions of Russia played an important part in that. In the 2007 election in Ukraine, the divide between pro-West and pro-Russian was razor thin. The 2014 military action took the strongest political support for Russia out of the electoral process and also hardened Ukraine's resolve, so that eight year later, Ukraine had crossed a pro-Western, or at least, anti-Russian, tipping point.
@Ryan
Russia won't invade any Eastern European NATO countries, because invading one NATO country means invading them all.
So if Ukraine was already in NATO, Russia wouldn't have the balls to invade it.
The fact that Ukraine was left to fend for itself meant that Russia had this large window of opportunity to plan and carry out its crazy invasion.
to @Vladimir
@Zesty
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brave-new-world-of-putin-an-article-by-the-propaganda-publication-ria-novosti-which-was-to-be-published-after-the-occupation-of-ukraine/
The original is here.
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html
Sorry but anyone who thinks the west hasn’t been complicit in this conflict like any other one is living with the pixies
I’m not sure why a couple of our resident BBC journalists here are acting all offended and scoffing
The West is only really complicit in the sense that it challenges Russia.
But currently Russia's goals are based on a vision of an unattainable utopia in which the children of the Kievan Rus live happily ever after under the control of Moscow.
It's a pointless cause, and it's no wonder that Ukraine ran to the West for help.
The problem with these sorts of grand designs to reach utopia (and the West obviously isn't immune from them, but in the West they take the form of more left leaning ideologies) is that they might sound pretty cool in theory, but in practice they inevitably lead to human misery. So they're not worth it.
@Vladimir wrote:
This is not an argument. I will not speak for Yugoslavia, but according to the law of the USSR, in order for the republic to withdraw from the USSR, a referendum of the entire USSR, and not just Ukraine, had to be held. Surely there was the same law in Yugoslavia. So the legitimacy of Ukraine's exit, as well as other republics from the USSR, was absent. Or rather, it was exactly the same as the legitimacy of the withdrawal of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea from Ukraine or the Donetsk region from Ukraine.
No, there was not such a law in Yugoslavia. The right to became independent was only proclaimed in the Constitution without any details how it can be achieved.
The borders of the Republics were not allowed to change without mutual agreement between the Republics and Autonomous provinces.
The Russia recognised Ukraine after the events in the 1990s.
And Russia has violated its own guarantees given to Ukraine regarding the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in Budapest Memorandum.
On December 5, 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Britain and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state. The four parties signed the memorandum, containing a preamble and six paragraphs. The memorandum has several points. The first 3 are:
1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind...
Ukraine could had been easily like Finland if they wanted.Just look Finland who borders with Russia. One of the most democratic and free countries on earth with a very rich and advanced society.They are out of NATO and they have peace with Russians for ages now. Ukranians on the other hand instead of trying to become EU members/citizens they prefered to boost neonazi groups and far right organizations killing Russian speaking folks and other minorities who did not liked their agenda. The result was the annexation of Crimea. After that.. they elected a random non-Ukranian comedian who wants badly Ukraine to become member of NATO like there is not tommorow. Not to mention that Ukraine and its western supporters cheated Minsks agreements.
For those who are not bored. You can watch Berny Sander's statement about the war in Ukraine.Very objective person and he knows well how the american politics work since the cold war.
https://youtu.be/o8BJ4FajZzg
No, Ukraine never had a chance to be like Finland.
Ukraine was being prepped for a total Russian takeover for many years.
@Davidski
Have you addressed Alessandro Fichera’s thesis on the transition from the Mesolithic to the Neolithic in Belgium here? I apologize if you have and I missed it. I guess it’s off topic, but I was amazed that the person who brought it up did so apparently to defend himself from the charge of a delusional resistance to the idea that R1b-M269 came from Eastern Europe, and not in the way you might think: i.e., to show that in fact he doesn’t object to that idea. No, he seems to be saying that Fichera’s thesis somehow actually bolsters resistance to an Eastern European origin.
I don’t see how even a cursory glance at that paper could give anyone that idea, but it might be something you could address here (if you haven’t already).
@Rich S
I'm not sure if there's anything to address. The abstract says this...
The second, less numerous genome-wide cluster revealed admixture from a Pontic-Caspian Steppe related population, further indicated by the presence of Y-chromosome R1b-M269.
And there aren't any surprises in the thesis as far as I can see.
Thanks. That’s the way I see it, as well. I was just amazed that it was characterized as saying almost the exact opposite of what it in fact says in pretty unambiguous terms.
All I’ll say is that admitting states into NATO that border Russia is going to provoke a response. It’s irresponsible to engage in such things when they know how Russia plays ball. Russia has been warning the West about this for 15 years, and they said they would act. Simply not allowing Ukraine into NATO by declaration, could have solved this without bloodshed. Additionally, east/south Ukraine is majority Russian/Russian-speaking, while west Ukraine is majority Ukrainian and much more favorable to the West. I see Putin splitting her in half. The Russians by no means have the long terms resources to conquer and occupy the entirety of one of the most poor, large, and corrupt counties in Europe (more corrupt than Russia); a large part of it is hostile. It would be Afghanistan/Iraq times three, as far as scale. I think they know this.
“Bush backs Ukraine on Nato bid,” BBC, April 1, 2008: “Mr Bush said Kiev had made a bold decision to request membership and the US ‘strongly supported it’. Mr Bush…said he plans to press Nato allies to support Membership Action Plans for both Ukraine and Georgia. Russia is fiercely opposed to the eastward expansion of Nato. Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin told a hearing…that Ukrainian membership of the Western alliance would ‘entail a deep crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations.’ He said Ukraine would become a buffer between Europe and Russia. The West, he added, had to make a strategic choice because "this crisis will also affect in the most adverse way pan-European security too..French Prime Minister Francois Fillon appeared to agree with the Russian assessment…’We think that it is not a good answer to the balance of power within Europe and between Europe and Russia,’ he said.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2008/07/3/3482506/, (July 3, 2008): “At a closed meeting of the Russia-NATO Council, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened that if Ukraine joins the North Atlantic Alliance, it could cease to exist as a single state...In particular, Russia could annex Crimea and the East of the country.”
“Ukraine Says ’No’ to NATO,” Pew Research (March 29, 2010): “A September 2009 survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, found that half of Ukrainians (51%) opposed their country’s admission to NATO, while only 28% favored such a step…about half of Ukrainians (51%) gave NATO an unfavorable rating. Views of membership in NATO vary by ethnicity and region. Ethnic Russians (74%) were far more likely to oppose admission to NATO than ethnic Ukrainians (46%). In terms of regional groupings, respondents living in the East (72%) and South (60%)—where the percentage of Russians tends to be higher than elsewhere in the country—were more likely to oppose joining NATO than were those living in the Central region (51%). And in the West a majority (59%) favored their country becoming part of NATO…The strongest opposition emanated from Russia, where more than seven-in-ten (72%) opposed Ukraine’s admission into NATO.” Here’s more recent info: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/war-with-russia-has-pushed-ukrainians-toward-the-west/amp/. Their views of Russia and NATO flipped after Crimea in 2014, though it’s still pretty divided.
Putin warned all throughout 2021 that NATO expansion in Ukraine would be a “red line,” and that Russia would act. Putin said: “If some kind of strike systems appear on the territory of Ukraine, the flight time to Moscow will be seven to 10 minutes, and five minutes in the case of a hypersonic weapon being deployed.” As in November 2014, on December 1, 2021, Putin wanted a guarantee that Georgia and Ukraine would be exempted from joining NATO. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg: "It's only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors.” At the 2021 Brussels summit, NATO said Ukraine would join the alliance and the MAP. This was all completely avoidable.
The Antes disappear from sources after the Avar raids in the 600s. Their descendants might have eventually partaken in the formation of Ulichians, Tivertsi, etc; but thats not clear. There is a 'back-migration' (in reality the Slavic migration) from the Carpathian region at this time, assoc. with Luka-Rujkovska culture
1) The intel that we have in the West is lousy. People don't actually know what's happening, and yet our pundits are very confident that their wishful thinking delusions are true.
2) People also don't understand military history or strategy at all. They write fan fiction that could be written by over emotional 12 year old girls and it sounds like reasonable news to them. But the few and far between people who have even a modicum of military history or strategy knowledge are shaking their head and how ridiculous these claims are.
3) Time will tell. I'm quite confident that most of what the OP is suggesting will be proven wrong in the weeks ahead. You should compare Russia's advance statistically to the American advance into Iraq a decade or two ago.
@Simon
Russia has it's own strategic long-term goals and doesn't need to be provoked to attack its neighbors.
It really makes no difference whether Ukraine was ever going to join NATO or not, because Russia planned to control it and eventually absorb it anyway.
Just take a look at the political, military and economic preparations that were launched years ago, maybe even over a decade ago, in order to make this offensive happen.
Well, obviously, these preparations weren't as great as the Kremlin had hoped, considering that Russia is reportedly now asking China for military rations among other things, but the intentions were there for a long time.
The point I'm making is that the problem here is Russian politics and not NATO, especially since NATO was never going to attack Russia anyway.
This is pretty funny.
Elite Chechen troops getting ready for an attack somewhere at a secret location in Ukraine...
https://twitter.com/Michael1Sheldon/status/1503239976825364484
@ davidski
“The point I'm making is that the problem here is Russian politics and not NATO, especially since NATO was never going to attack Russia anyway.”
How do you know that ?
George Bush and the US Deep State just decided one day to invade Iraq & made up some BS about WMDs
The media ran some BS story about it, and the NATO obliged
Some US boomer could have decided to invade Russia after watching Rambo
How does George Bush being an idiot change anything about Russia?
The reason I ask that is obviously because NATO is a defensive alliance, and NATO didn't attack Iraq.
@ph2ter
The fact that Russia has recognized something does not mean much. Russia can just as easily denounce the treaty on the recognition of Ukraine's borders as the United States denounced the 1972 treaty with the USSR on the limitation of missile defense systems.
As for the Budapest Memorandum, it is not an international treaty, but a declaration that has not been ratified by any parliament of the signatory countries. It has about the same force as the transcript of the summit meeting of Gorbachev, Bush and Kohl, where the United States and Germany promised that NATO would not withdraw east of the Elbe River.
@Draft Dozen
Even if the Tivertsy or Ulichi moved to the northwest, this does not refute the fact that there are no more of them left in steppe Ukraine. As for the Brodniks, yes, apparently they gave rise to the Cossacks. But again there were not many of them. What you describe about the large population is that we are talking about a forest-steppe zone, the so-called Little Russia, and not about the steppe. The cities of the southern, steppe strip of Ukraine were founded after 1750 during the period of the Russian Empire, so initially they were inhabited by the entire population of the empire, and not only by the population of central Ukraine. From your information - the population of the city of Odessa in 1897: Russians 50%, Ukrainians 10%, Jews 30%. Therefore, there was no sense to Russify cities with such a mixed population, Russian was the language of interethnic communication. Actually, that's why there were practically no Ukrainian schools in the cities.
Thanks for the report of Putin Kadyrov and the Chechen henchmen, I heard that soldiers are also being sent from Poland (special unit "unofficial"/private).
@Davidski
The essential question is how Russia could "absorb". If Ukraine had a Finnish policy, the takeover would have occurred through joining the Eurasian Union. This is a rather amorphous formation of constituent documents, including the consensus decision-making procedure, literally copied from the constituent documents of the European Union. I am sure that the further development of the Eurasian Union would lead to an understanding of the need for association with the European Union. Yes, it would to some extent slow down the movement of Ukraine and Belarus, and possibly Russia itself, towards the European Union, but in any case there would be no war and human casualties.
@Davidski
I don’t think NATO would have attacked Russia either. I don’t doubt that Russia wants Ukraine in its sphere of influence, similar to Belarus, but this invasion is totally a gambit, and it seems like a last resort to reaffirm the non-EU/NATO status of Ukraine. Had the West backed down on the NATO issue and their involvement in the post-2014 gov, I don’t think we would have seen any kind of military invasion. The Russian border preparations were responses to the 2008-2021 NATO summits, and to the post-2014 coup government aligning itself with the West; the post-2014 gov outlined EU and NATO memberships/partnerships as priorities (they had direct ties with the West/US prior to attaining power in 2014). Most of these encroachment issues came up within the last two years. The large pro-Russian contingent in the southern (Crimea) and eastern half of the country, makes this an even more complex geopolitical issue. The Russian separatists territories have suffered the most civilian casualties in the Donbas via the Ukraine gov shelling. Up until 2014-2015, the majority of Ukrainians had a negative view of NATO, and the vast majority had a favorable view of Russia. The coup in 2014 definitely intensified the situation, and divided the nation ethno-culturaly (the Crimea referendum). NATO started to be viewed as a positive by a good half of the country (mostly the west/central part), while the opposite was true in the south/east. Again, I don’t think Russia plans on taking over the whole country of Ukraine, it’s just not feasible in the long term. Most of their military forces and resources would be deployed to Ukraine, just one country. Neutrality from the West could have alleviated this problem, and prevented military action. If the plan is for Russia to attack and absorb its neighbors unprovoked, why have they not invaded and taken Belarus, or Finland? Why didn’t they do an Anschluss with Ukraine when the relatively pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych was in office? I condemn Russia’s invasion, but I also condemn the inflammatory/polarizing actions of the West, and the corrupt, censorious Zelenskyy regime. We can have an independent, neutral Ukraine, like Finland, Belarus, Sweden, or Switzerland. This was all unnecessary.
As for NATO, it was directly involved in Iraq. The NATO Training Mission-Iraq (NTM-I) was established in 2004, and various NATO countries were members of the US coalition forces of the Iraq War (both in the invasion and the post-invasion phase). These nations included Britain, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Denmark, the Netherlands, Albania, Czechia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Norway, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Iceland, and the MAP-related Georgia and Ukraine. NATO bombing during the Yugoslav Wars killed anywhere from 500 to 2000 civilians. This likely contributed to the apprehension and dislike of the group in Belarus and Ukraine prior to 2014-2022.
Hi, All!
I suppose Putin doesn't care about Ukraine at all.
Putin lives by the idea of Alexander Dugin's geopolitics. Over the years, Dugin prompted Putin to create a great Eurasian empire, or rather a Russian pagan-orthodox empire from Dublin to Vladivostok.
Ukraine, like Catholic Poland as well, is only an obstacle that somehow needs to be removed on this path. Dugin wrote about Poland that it had no raison d'être in this future.
According to Dugin, Germany is already dependent on Moscow (it only needs a new Ribentropp-Mołotov-II pact). There is no need to worry about other countries of Western Europe, because they are already almost pagan, they will follow Germany and will not resist. This is the state of Dugin's plan for today. Publications can be easily found online and offline.
So we observe how Putin and Putin's people make sure that Putin becomes a lifetime president. It is seeking to put NATO away into nothingness. He made sure, and still does, that there is only one de facto Orthodox patriarch in the world, his one, to coronate Putin into this Eurasian empire. So Ukraine is just a temporary unexpected obstacle; it cannot be obtained, so must be destroyed!
@Rob
Yes, it is almost never light vs. darkness. Just shades of grey. And the USA has a bad history of messing up countries in short-sighted power games, sometimes in infuriating ways. I just felt that you overstate their role as a puppet master. Russia pretty much started a kind of new cold war a decade ago and recently the European countries mostly acted on their own, because the war was a wake-up call.
@Zesty
You start to sink into ad hominem, so this conversation nears its end, but I am going to answer just one pat of your rant.
"Do you really believe that Putin is such an idiot to make a war,destroy the Russian economy and become isolated from the rest of the world because of Ukraine..."
He simply miscalculated. He did not think this would destroy the Russian economy. Because:
1. He thought Ukraine will immediately fold, so there won't be a long war. (And after that his propaganda machinery can sell his narrative worldwide, backed up by his puppets in Ukraine.)
2. EU will be too scared of the economic price and also too divided to act harshly.
He is not a superman. He made the mistake of surrounding himself with yes-men.
@StP
I would not exaggerate this concept of Dugin. Even within Russia, the percentage of supporters of this concept and Prokhanov's Stalinist-patriarchal concept together reaches a maximum of 30% and, mostly, these are elderly people over 60 years old. What allows Putin to stay afloat is another 30-40% of the provincial philistine electorate. But these people are completely far from politics, and even more so from the concepts of Dugin or Prokhanov, they fully believe what propaganda tells them on TV. But the real deterioration in living standards will make them think about the correctness of their support for Putin's current course.
@StP
I am not sure we are on the same page about the meaning of modal. Modal (in statistic): "relating to a value that occurs most frequently in a given set of data." The allele has the highest frequency in South Asia, so it is modal in South Asia.
In this case it also means that if the allele alone were a deciding factor for Covid mortality, then South Asia would have the high mortality.
"The thesis was also adjusted: first the negative selection of this segment (because it is not near Altai), then the positive one (because it is in excess in Bangladesh and New Guinea."
I am skeptical whether a link between PIE migration and the South Asian presence of the allele is actually a theory from Max Plank Institute. It is a third party interpretation and a mistaken one.
"He will probably learn that the Segment's migration route is the Proto-Indo-European migration route from Europe to India, Bangladesh and further east to New Guinea."
I would not hold my breath. A strong presence among Papuans actually a dead giveaway that the allele has nothing to do with Indo-Europeans or Europeans by and large. (A secondary spread could be still Indo-European, but there is nothing in the data that would suggest so.)
"Zeberg and Paabo, as we read in this paper, tightened Neanderthal donors of the 49.04 kb segment to the Neanderthal from the Vindija cave (45-50 thousand YBP). The authors found genetic distinguishing marks for an ancestor from Vindija.
You mean that among the very low number of good enough quality Neanderthal genome-wide samples Vindija was relatively the best fit. That does not tell us much about the actual place of the introgression.
"Neanderthal origins come from individual events across a wide geographic and temporal space - say about 100,000 years. We already know that.
This is a non-answer to my point. The allele has the same frequency in West Europe as in East-Central Europe. So it cannot be used to explain mortality differences between the two regions.
(Also for example the founders of Lima were mostly from Iberia, and there is no higher mortality there either. The entire explanation just does not add up.)
"It is not about Hungary itself, but Central and Eastern Europe !!!
I know. I showed you an example of alternative explanation. Pinning the excess mortality of the region on this Neandertal allele just plain does not work, because the allele frequency is not higher here than elsewhere in Europe.
Generally I'd say that the higher mortality of the region seems to have economic and cultural roots.
@Rob
Not to drive too far and away from the subject at hand, but how’s that WSHG model coming along? I remember asking you a few months back and you said you were almost done with it.
@ Simon S
WSHG is ANE with some additional admixture from both ENA & preWHG
I’ll release it alongside Iran and CHG analysis
@sgt
don't think Putin feels comfortable competing in ideas on a level playing field
You are really forcing me to be an contrarian. Putin can compete well in the battle of ideas. Look at how he gives his speeches. There is contest, history, and real polotitik. He talks to his audience like they are adults. Contrast that with American leaders who only use emotional and cartoonishly simplistic ideology. "They hate our freedom" "its about democracy", "this man is evil", "its about Ukrainian self determination". None of this is what motivates the behavior of a state; it is propaganda for a childlike audience. Why are we spending so much time talking about how Putin is evil? What mature nation talks in this manner. Is puttin being evil really justification for us to start a war and punish all of russia. Imagine some other nation saying bush is evil and all of america needs to pay. Our same leaders that regurgitate the same trite platitudes are very ignorant about history. Kamala Harris said that europe hasnt experienced a war since the 1940's. Her knowledge is that of an average american! Nancy Pelosi mistook Ukraine for Hungry. I am certain Russian leaders are not this ignorant.
You talk about competing ideas on an even playing field but do you know just how much every western establishment is censoring information on Russia? Google, facebook, Duck Duck Go,... everybody is censoring any argument that seeks to understand the motivations of russia. We are being blindfolded by OUR government. I want to know whats going on but I know im only being fed propaganda from every media. What about the expansion of nato, what about the bio labs, what about all the weird scandals involving our politicians and ukraine? What about the basic question of whether Ukraine is even in our interest? Every establishment in the west is in agreement and that should cause concern.
Im sick of our leaders. Putting us through all these useless and costly wars and then blackmailing us into defending the sovereignty of Ukraine. How does that make sense. We have to defend Ukraine from being invaded but we also have to invade Syria, Iraq, and Libya... They are lying and people actually fall for it. Im sick of the censorship of this war and every other agenda including covid. What america is doing to Russia is what the west is doing to its own citizens. They are taking good citizens like canadian truckers and libeling, censoring, and debanking them. This unison of power in the west will turn on anyone who opposes the agenda; and the agenda is most often bad. Things are only getting worse in the west just as the power is becoming more and more unified. I hope they lose this power.
@Vladimir wrote:
The fact that Russia has recognized something does not mean much.
Of course. Their words don't mean anything.
They are pathological liars. The same lies we have heard before the aggression.
@Vladimir wrote:
Russia can just as easily denounce the treaty on the recognition of Ukraine's borders as the United States denounced the 1972 treaty with the USSR on the limitation of missile defense systems.
Yes, this is the same rank. The treaty about some missile defence systems and international borders.
@Vladimir wrote:
As for the Budapest Memorandum, it is not an international treaty, but a declaration that has not been ratified by any parliament of the signatory countries. It has about the same force as the transcript of the summit meeting of Gorbachev, Bush and Kohl, where the United States and Germany promised that NATO would not withdraw east of the Elbe River.
The declaration or memorandum represents much more than a transcript. Germany and USA are not NATO. NATO never promised or signed anything like that.
Every country is independent and can do whatever it likes. Why should they need to obey the Russia? Are Poland or Estonia the Russian colonies.
Were they supposed to remain captives of Kohl's words or promises? If they had not been admitted to NATO, they would have been the target of the Russian aggression sooner or later (especially Baltic states), like Ukraine is today.
@pnuadha
Putin is now a liability to the right wing in the west. Time to move on.
@ ph2ter
You’re Bosnian I take it. If you’re old enough, can you explain what was happening in the 80s ?
@Rob
"WSHG is ANE with some additional admixture from both ENA & preWHG"
Based on G25 nMontes Tyumen and Sosonivoy are different enough not to be lumped together in a fine analysis. Their close clustering on low dimension PCA is a bit misleading, because it is a results of two different admixtures somewhat offsetting each other.
Target: RUS_Sosonivoy_HG:I5766
RUS_Tyumen_HG: 87.8
RUS_Samara_HG: 12.2
Distance: 0.03423260
Target: RUS_Sosonivoy_HG:I5766
RUS_Tyumen_HG: 78.8
RUS_Samara_HG: 17.0
RUS_Devils_Gate_Cave_N: 4.2
Distance: 0.02724133
This is EHG admixture into Western Siberia between Tyumen and Sosonivoy + some eastern gene flow in the same period.
Tyumen HG has much less of this, but IMHO it is also just recent EHG admixture, not something older. (It also present in Botai, but missing in Tarim EMBA.)
Now of course WHG-related ancestry in EHG could be called preWHG in a sense.
@ Rob wrote:
You’re Bosnian I take it. If you’re old enough, can you explain what was happening in the 80s ?
No, I am not a Bosnian. I am Croatian from Croatia.
In the 80s Tito died and Serbian leaders started to convert Yugoslavia into Serboslavia. Milošević installed 4 of 8 in the 8-headed presidency (Kosovo, Vojvodina, Serbia and Montenegro). The Bosnian representative was also ethnic Serb, but he was not a man of Milošević. The Army at the end of the 80s gradually became completely ruled by the Serbian staff. This provoked Slovenia and Croatia to secession. Slovenia retained control over Territorial Millitary units and weapons, but Croatia lost all the weapons and we were under embargo. Everything what we had were captered weapons by conquering the Army weapon depots and barracks. Bosnia is a more complicated story.
@ Slumbery
Sorry buddy... but your country today is full of biochemical weapons,neonazi murderers and NATO worshippers.Vladimir Putin is working for the best to make Ukraine a peaceful country.If he did something wrong is that he delayed a lot.This military operation
should be taken place 8 years before.But i am pretty sure Russia will fix the Ukranian issue for the best.These neonazis and their western supporters will go down sooner or later.
Heh, we have an actual textbook Russian troll here and he believes I am Ukrainan. I have to improve on my naive approach about these people.
This is overall a weird discussion in many aspects. I see a lot of people choose to believe what fits the current nationalistic narrative of their respective ethnic groups. History is written by emotional and tribal people, not by abstract facts after all.
Already after the start of the war in Ukraine, an article by Walentyn Ogirenko (and Piotr Akopow) „ The offensive of Russia and the new world was published”.
The author calls this war "opened a new era". The essence of it is:
"Russia is restoring its historical fullness by gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians."
I think that the most accurate information about the relationship of the population is the number of IBDs - DNA fragments common in pairs of people in their population and with the other population. They speak of the number of common ancestors.
The enormous IBD tables were published by Gennady Khvorykh et al. 2020: "Global Picture od genetic retedness and the wevolution of Humanking. Table S1a (number IBD), S1b (normalized number IBD). For a more accurate, averaged kinship picture, these IBD numbers can be summed.
…
Putin claims that Russia, Belarus and Uraina are one nation, so this separation must be eliminated!
Here in Polish are sets of kinships of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine between them and with other selected from 43 European populations:
Rosja z sobą 35,32; Wepsją 40,54; Karelią 35,21; finami 35,20; Estonią 35,03; Łotwą 34,41, Ingrią 33,65; Komi 32,20
Białoruś z sobą 36,05; z Łotwą 42,08; Estonią 41,47; Litwą 41,42; Polską 38,28; Wepsją 37,38; Mordwą 34,73; Ukrainą 33,64.
Ukraina z sobą 33,21; z Łotwą 39,26; Litwą 37,37; Polską 36,20; Białorusią 34,48; Estonią 33,55; Chorwacją 28,66; Rosją 28,52
Note that in the set of 8 populations, Russia has no close ties to Ukraine, and Ukraine has them with Russia only ... at the end of the set.
Likewise, Russia has kinship with Belarus somewhere further apart, beyond the set of 8 populations, and similarly Belarus with Russia.
@M & M,
Did you know that the main Jewish lineage of Levites and Kohen (priests) is R1a-Z93, originally from Transcarpathia, 5300 YBC? (see D.Behar et al. 2017)
@davidski
I dont care about Putin. I dont care if he is good or evil. Lets call him evil for your sake. None of my position changes because its not about him. The entire western establishment is in complete unison on the Russia situation. The last time this nearly happened is with the covid pandemic. The carefully procured narrative on covid shielded the very people who may have had a hand in creating the virus, mandated vaccines for children against the wishes the CDC committee of doctors, and shut down our economy. Only the shut down of the economy may have been motivated by something other than power and money. Maybe.
The narrative on Russia is that we have a moral obligation to defend Ukraine. This is a complete joke considering how the West just invaded Iraq, Syria, and Libya and made every country worse. And we heard the same stupid moralizations that we are hearing now. Saddam is evil, Assad is evil, Gaddaffi is evil, and now Putin is evil. Its propaganda for the stupid. Lets move on from Putin indeed.
The moral argument is off the table as far as western motivations is concerned. I dont want to hear anything about defending democracy or the sovereignty of a country. The expansion of NATO is concerning because i don't know why the West is doing it. It does not seem to be justified. There is also a lot of corruption involving US politicians in Ukraine including Hunter Biden, the Clinton Foundation, and the then Senator Obama creating a biolab in Ukraine. The amount of corruption may have something to do with why the West is so concerned about Ukraine. This is not a left vs right issue. I fully expect the republicans to have just as many corruption relations in Ukraine.
The Western establishment is not a good influence. They hate the success of Hungry and its pro natal policies. They want endless migration into every European country. They hate that poland and Russia both support traditional families instead of radical LGBT agenda. Now we are spreading wokeness instead of democracy. Its poison all the same and the expansion of the West is not necessarily good.
Things change quickly when countries pivot away from Russia to the EU.
No doubt about that. But what do you foresee for America, Britain, and France. Are things improving? Is Paris a more beautiful city than it was 20 years ago? Are Americans getting more wealthy and socially adjusted. The only countries in Europe that care about the nation, instead of replacing the nation itself are from the Eastern block. Communism is temporary, self hatred and population replacement is permanent.
All these wars are against the Slavs. With the help of puppets (governments) of Jewish origin both in Poland and in Ukraine.
I gotta agree with some of this. Lets not forget that America conspired with Russia to make the whole narrative of WWII about the bad German and the Jewish victims. Never mind that the majority of deaths were suffered by the Slavs. To this day Americans only know about the Germans and the Jews. The Slavic deaths in WWII and holodomor have no place in American memory. The ADL has been caught on tape pressuring Ukraine to not compare their genocide, holodomor, to the jewish genocide.
@ Vladimir wrote: I would not exaggerate this concept of Dugin. Even within Russia, the percentage of supporters of this concept Stalinist-patriarchal concept together reaches a maximum of 30%
Resp. However, I am fed up with signals from Russia that the spirit of imperialism is nurtured in the souls of citizens, and strongly.
Once, on the Rodztvo.ru website, there was a discussion about the terrible crime of the Stalinist authorities in Katyń, where in 1941 they killed innocent around 20,000 representatives of the Polish intelligents with arrows, arrested after taking part of Polish territory on September 17.
The main „bonzo” on this website wrote: Stalin had the right to do it, because the Poles should know what the laws of the imperial state are, but they did not submit to him or obey him.
Then I just asked: who made Stalinist Russia the imperial owner of Polish land? Who gave her the right to kill unlawfully arrested other people?
@David - Agreed. Just trying to refute some of the Russia apologist "logic."
Also great to see an actual Nazi here in the name of M&M. :/
@Slumbery wrote: " The allele has the highest frequency in South Asia, so it is modal in South Asia.
Resp: regarding Gvinea, the research is unclear; there is conflicting information as to whether the "Neanderthal" segments are maybe - from Homo Denisoviensis.
On the other hand, as for the Bangals coming from Europe, and now emigrating to England again, there are reports that they have a significant excess of deaths.
I am skeptical whether a link between PIE migration and the South Asian presence of the allele is actually a theory from Max Plank Institute. It is a third party interpretation and a mistaken one.
Resp: Yes, this is my observation and my statement, which prompted me to contradictory explanations for the presence of Neand.Vindija segments in South and Southeast Asia. The linking of the 49.4 kb segments with the Neanderthal Vindija was only made in 2020, when other details related to the Asian origin of these segments had already been "established" by guesswork.
A strong presence among Papuans actually a dead giveaway that the allele has nothing to do with Indo-Europeans or Europeans by and large
Resp: This "strong" presence among the Papuans is very doubtful, and already such segments have been wiped off the map of the Far East (Japan, Philippines) previously located there (Zeberg mentions it!)
You mean that among the very low number of good enough quality Neanderthal genome-wide samples Vindija was relatively the best fit. That does not tell us much about the actual place of the introgression.
Resp: It is the "fit", i.e. the greatest similarity in details, that determines everything
The allele has the same frequency in West Europe as in East-Central Europe. So it cannot be used to explain mortality differences between the two regions.
Resp: Not true. In the world set of "1000 genomes" these segments were not found in humans in Central and Eastern Europe, because from here hardly any samples were taken !! But other and numerous collections are already available, e.g. the 1,500 victims of COVID from Białystok :)
the allele frequency is not higher here than elsewhere in Europe.
Resp: We now have surveys of the frequency of these segments. In C / E Europe every seventh inhabitant, and in W. Europe every thirteenth. That is why we have nearly twice as many deceased COVID victims here. Let's take the facts into account!
Contra factum nullum argumentum… Sapienti sat!!
@StP
The reason that there are more East-Central Europeans dying from Covid is not some Neanderthal segment, but the sad fact that there are many dumbf*cks in this part of the world who refuse to get vaccinated.
In fact, about 50% of the adult population.
Why anyone would refuse a free, perfectly safe vaccine that can potentially save your life is totally beyond me.
@ Slumbery
Me Russian?LOL.
I have zero relations with Russia,thought i have both Russian and Ukranian friends and guess what...They both agree that this Zelensky is the best 'pet' NATO and the West ever had against Russia.What you guys achieved with this war against Russia is to drag her closer to China.Now prepare for the worst....
@Ryan Also great to see an actual Nazi here in the name of M&M. :/
Wow, that makes you like an actual super hero. You are like the actual harry potter fighting the actual lord voldemort. You are like the actual spider man fighting the actual Green Goblin. Actual, guys!!!
How would you ever have a grasp of the situation when you are using 80 year old designations that have no relevance to today. Would if I called you an actual viking as a means to add legitimacy my argument on international relations? There is a Chinese influence, there is a Russian influence and there is in fact a Jewish influence. There was a Jewish influence involved in the creation of Israel (international coordination without even having a country). There was a large Jewish influence in the decision to invade Iraq (read "a clean break memo" and the positions of power those authors assumed). I dont understand why M&M is making the connection between Zelinski being jewish and his willingness to let more Ukrainians die, but you should not hyperventilate at the idea that someone of a different heritage might not have the same vested interest in the people. Foreign influence and post national interests are not unusual for leaders to have.
@ Rob. ”it has to recalled Russia had been trying to be allies with Europe , but the US deep state didn’t want that . That’s why they got rid of Trump”
Can it be that you don’t remember these events? It’s around 2017, or so. These events happen in all the same few weeks, on public record, all on video, repeatedly, several in the same video. Easy to find on sites like youtube.
1. The context is that a serving US president has sizeable personal business interests in a long-time superpower hostile to the US, which he refuses to go through the usual trusteeship / arms length process with: he wants to keep it under his own active management.
2. Trump breaks both protocol and national security advice to talk all alone with Putin for a few hours.
3. The US has a renowned ambassadorial and analyst staff in Ukraine, people who have been building up relations since the Bush era, universally respected as outstanding at their job. He either sacks them or hounds them out of their posts.
4. Trump is meeting Zelensky in front of the Press: he humiliates him all through this event, complaining that because Ukraine won’t make a political arrest of a US citizen (Trump’s rival’s son) on Trump’s say-so, then the US ought to renege on its agreement of an important loan to Ukraine. How Trump came upon his suspicions or knowledge of a rival’s family member’s personal foreign business, is never clear.
4. On the same occasion he also rails against Nato and complains that the US “pays for it”, and should stop paying any money to Nato &/or the US should withdraw from Nato. Which given the sums of money he is talking about is astonishing, absurd, and horrifies the US military and security services.
5 At the same time, Trump makes the absurd accusation that Ukraine, this country he probably never heard of before, one not noted for international technological feats of any kind, has infiltrated US voting technology and subverted it in order to criminally alter election results. (Later the company who owns and runs these machines successfully sues Trump for this baseless claim.) But Trump uses this as ammunition for his claim that the US should impoverish and diplomatically/politically isolate Ukraine.
6. Don jr cheerfully admits several different times over the years, in public, that GOP doesn’t really need to raise funds in the US because “the Russians give us all the money we need.”
There are many other instances and dimensions to it, of course, but this particular strand happened so close in time, and all associated with close encounters between Trump and Putin, and all very public.
Is there some way that it is NOT screamingly obvious that Putin wound Trump up like a clockwork toy and set him in motion to soften up Ukraine (and weaken Nato) for this invasion?
@Davidski. If I had Polish connections, right now I would be vicariously proud to be connected with such stand-up people. Three million people in three weeks, and most of them coming into Poland.
But I am British and shamefaced at our government’s devious stinginess of heart.
@ slumberry
You cant use G25 for this kind of thing
@ ph2ter
Thanks I know the broad sequence of events. I just wanted to ascertain what was the kind of atmosphere there at a social level.
Saudi now taking Yuan apparently
This is a funny meme about Democrats
“What you guys achieved with this war against Russia” (Zesty).
This really happened: at my cousin’s house. In the days when beds had bouncy bedsprings, me and three cousins aged about 6-10, jumping up and down on my grandmother’s bed. The biggest lad, for no obvious reason, he wound his arm back and, at the top of a bounce he took a big roundhouse whack at his unsuspecting older (but smaller) sister’s head.
He missed, momentum carried him round, and we heard a classic Foley smash.
Holding his blood-streaming wrist high, he jumped off the bed and raced downstairs yelling, (standard-English translation) MAMMY, MAMMY, ELLEN PUT MY FIST THROUGH THE WINDOW!
@pnuadha I bet if Davidski were in charge of Ukraine, he could have come to an agreement with Putin (common Slavic heritage saving the genetic and archeological sites) , just knowing that he is R1a) and might related to both Russians and Ukrainians, maybe even Putin who knows? Anyway I think the time is ticking away and that this will be the last adventure for the US dollar;for Biden to try and make a deal with the Iranians would have been unthinkable desperation is starting to set in blaming Putin for inflation when the economy was shut down on purpose for 2 years. The Chinese must be well aware by now that SWIFT has been weaponized by politics; and they will most likely set up a parallel trading system that will fracture global trading.
You also make a good point about all the R1a killing R1a.
1 Kings 3:16-28 ICB
The comedians love for war in Ukraine; reminds me of the two prostitutes fighting over a baby,
When they brought it to him, he said, “Cut the living baby into two pieces. Give each woman half of the baby.” The real mother of the living child was full of love for her son. She said to the king, “Please, my master, don’t kill him! Give the baby to her!” But the other woman said, “Neither of us will have him. Cut him into two pieces!”
If you as a criminal Oligarch really loved your corrupt country(not saying that Putin is a Saint, but I think he does love his country and people); you would at least try and spare the innocent women and children from an unnecessary war, no?
Now we have a lot of Russian and Ukrainian economy and military being used as cannon fodder against each other with so much hatred. Sometimes I wonder if the comedian has an offshore golden parachute account,,like the ones found in the Pandora Papers, millions of documents that revealed offshore deals and assets of more than 100 billionaires, 30 world leaders and 300 public officials?
@ Slumberry
Sorry overly brief answer- was running around this am . Will reply in greater detail
@ weee
I believe the Russian overtures to EU predated Trump by a longshot
On the other hand, the Democrats seemed crazily insensed by Russia . Now western media is even calling for vigilantes and mercenaries. A Russian Orthodox Church was looted in Oxford, of all places
@Wee e
That’s one big “citation needed” conspiracy. This invasion has very much to do with the Maidan coup, and their very close ties with the West and NATO, including their admission for a MAP in 2008 and 2021 (which they were promised they would get). Like Russia, the post-2014 Ukrainian regime has also conducted censorship (1); they’ve shelled civilians in the Donbas (see the OSCE reports), handed weapons out to convicts and civilians, and prohibited fighting age men (18-60) from leaving the country. There are some reports of civilians not being allowed to leave the large population centers (3). This reeks of an attempt to stir up an international incident and jump start a potential world war/intervention, like in Yugoslavia. This regime has also pleaded to jump start no fly zones, and to immediately join NATO; the former would also guarantee war.
Biden was an acting Vice President, a politician, an elected public servant, not a business man, and he had his drug addicted, sex worker using son on the board of a Ukrainian energy council. That’s peak corruption, and yet you don’t bat an eye. Here’s a logical question. If this was a pro-Russia Trump conspiracy, why didn’t Putin invade in 2017-2021, why did he wait for an anti-Russian administration to enter into the fold two years later and seize power? Why did Trump bomb Russian allies in al-Assad in Syria and in Iraq? Why did Trump bomb the Iranian forces allied with Russia? Why did Trump keep in place the Magnitsky Act which targeted high-ranking Russians with sanctions? Why did his administration reject an independent Crimea, employ the Salisbury restrictions, and approve lethal/anti-tank weapon shipments to Ukraine in Dec 2017? Not even Obama approved weapon shipments. Why did his administration approve various restrictions against pro-Russian individuals in Ukraine (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm629). His administration sanctioned the Evrofinance Mosnarbank, a Moscow-based bank jointly owned by Russian and Venezuelan state-owned companies; they provided $10 million to Ukraine’s navy in Dec 2018. This list goes on, Brookings even made a list of them, which you can view here: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/amp/
1). https://europeanjournalists.org/blog/2021/08/26/ukraine-president-bans-opposition-media-strana-ua-and-sanctions-editor-in-chief/
2). https://greekcitytimes.com/2022/03/01/greek-in-mariupol-fascist-ukrainian/?amp
@a If you as a criminal Oligarch really loved your corrupt country(not saying that Putin is a Saint, but I think he does love his country and people); you would at least try and spare the innocent women and children from an unnecessary war, no?
Yeah, thats the gist of my concern. It was always a losing war and zelensky has looked careless. He just admitted that Ukraine wont be apart of NATO.
I just have to correct one thing; the ukrainian men are innocent. They are bigger victims than the women because zelensky forced them into war. Women arent more innocent simply because they dont fight/defend.
@simon I can't believe you're saying this. It was the majority of American voters who got rid of Trump
The question is, what did the deep state want. They called trump gay for wanting to ease relations with Russia. But why, Russia is not a natural adversary anymore. Thanks to the past few months we just pushed Russia into the hands of China, who is our natural rival.
Great job.
@pnuadha
It was always a losing war and zelensky has looked careless.
Huh?
Ukraine has just successfully completed a massive counter offensive west of Kyiv, and will probably do the same soon east of Kyiv and in southern Ukraine.
The Russian army has already lost at least 1/3 of its effective battle strength, and will probably lose half of it within the next week or so.
So the Russian army is heading for a collapse.
Eh, Zelensky may have said Ukraine won't be part of NATO but... NATO anyway weren't letting Ukraine join to avoid this situation and were rather having some mutual assistance with Ukraine, which had stepped up since Putin had the remarkably foolish and rash action to invade the country and set up puppets.
What Putin has asked for, which is some humiliating writing into Ukrainian constitution that they can't make external alliances and have a military, he now will back down on and won't get. So what was his war for? Ukraine, which was out of NATO, still won't join NATO, but will still have partnership with it, and won't change its constitution to bind it if Russia gets aggressive again. He will have wrecked a culturally close nation that should be a natural friend, put elite Russians under sanctions (which will continue), accelerated countries moves to be independent of Russian food and fuel, likely have to pay war indemnities, reduced the size of the Russian economy by 15% and taken it back to 1989, accelerated NATO states to reinvest in militaries and so made NATO more dangerous for Russia than it ever was before, likely made Finland join NATO, imprisoned or hollowed out his own secret services as a scapegoat for his own foolishness, destroyed large amounts of his own military, discredited any people in US and EU who would have argued in his favour and haven't switched over to condemning him (contrarian right idiots right now), made himself personally a laughing stock over this nonsense about "nazi drug dealers" and so on. And he won't even have changed the status quo much.
@Davidski wrote: The reason that there are more East-Central Europeans dying from Covid is not some Neanderthal segment, but the sad fact that there are many dumbf*cks in this part of the world who refuse to get vaccinated.
Resp.
Excess deaths in CEE and in descendants of indigenous PIE depend mainly on a defect in the genomes, not on the vaccines themselves.
I got used to vaccinations since I was a child. I encourage my relatives to vaccinate against COVID and I have already taken three doses myself. But I also had COVID twice: in August 2021 - nearly 3 weeks, and now, in February, two weeks. I am still alive, so I still encourage others to vaccinate, but without fanaticism.
In the table of vaccinated people, people were divided into 5 groups. Group I up to 0.4 dose per person, Group II up to 1.04 dose; Group III for 1.62 doses; IV group for 2.11 doses; 5th group up to 3.39 doses
Inhabitants of a dozen or so countries with the highest number of excess deaths (Central and Eastern Europe) are in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th vaccinated groups. Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Estonia - this is the top level in group III. Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania - in group IV. And the leader of the group of excess deaths, originating from this part of Europe, Peru has a high level of vaccination in group IV: 1.91. So a lot of vaccines and a lot of deaths in Lima.
The final evidence for the association of the high rate of deaths in COViD with SE European homeland PIE and the 49.4 kb Vindija segment is the presence of the Vindija segment in some Native American populations (see Zeberg 2020m fig 3), originating in Europe (Khvorykh 2020, table S1a and S1b) and from our region (Kaja 2021, Fig. S-8A).
@StP
Across the world there's a very strong correlation between low vaccination rates and high Covid death rates.
But details are important too, like when each country experienced its main waves, especially involving the Delta variant.
As for Peru...
https://theconversation.com/how-peru-became-the-country-with-the-highest-covid-death-rate-in-the-world-169779
Well Im a vindija related Neanderthal and Ive never caught Covid, despite being constantly exposed to it
@simon stevin “ That’s one big “citation needed” conspiracy. ”
What a remarkable thing to say about a dry list of facts that were ALL CITED UNDER INTERNATIONAL NEWS HEADLINES WITH VIDEO INTERVIEWS OF ALL THE PLAYERS just a few years ago. The press called it “scandal” rather than conspiracy, though.
For your sake I just googled “Trump Fires Ukrainian” and the first thing that comes up is a wikipedia page that is actually titled “Trump Ukraine Conspiracy” it has very copious citations and details about a ton of stuff I didn’t bother to mention — how Trump was using his personal lawyer and Attorney General in lieu of ambassadorial staff and staff of analysts (again, totally public record), the whistleblower stuff and all that.
Here’s one nugget: “Trump has denied all wrongdoing.[49] He confirmed that he had withheld aid from Ukraine, while offering contradicting reasons for doing so. Trump first claimed it was withheld because of corruption in Ukraine, but later said it was because other nations, including those in Europe, were not contributing enough aid to Ukraine.[50][51][52] European Union institutions provided more than twice the amount of aid to Ukraine than did the United States during 2016-17,[53][54] and Trump's budget proposal sought to cut billions of dollars from U.S. initiatives to fight corruption and encourage reform in Ukraine and elsewhere.[55]”
But again, no need to believe wikipedia, watch it all for yourself. I stress that everything I mentioned in my post is not just uncontested, it was mostly actually spoken and spoken about at public pressers and presentations by Trump and his team/family themselves - beginning with when they, ironically, were trying to push a ludicrous conspiracy theory.
Don’t you even remember Trump firing the ambassador, Marie Yovanovitch? Don't you remember her testimony to Congress, or that of Fiona Hill, who resigned because she simply wasn’t allowed to do her job? (Both were originally Bush hires, I think)
True, Don jr’s remarks (made on and off through the years) that he isn’t concerned about GOP losing donors in the US because “we get all the money we need from the Russians” are remarkable for their candour: but again, he did say it very publicly.
You can verify all of it, the sequence and dates, and watch it on video still. Maybe you lived in a monastery or something then.
Most interesting is your casting this factual list as “conspiracy”. It took me a while to realise you actually weren’t joking. This happened right out there in front of the whole planet. Youtube probably has most of it.
These genocides you cite from “the Ukrainians”:
1. Generations long dead.
2. Most of the population of Crimea and some other large adjoining chunks was evicted by Stalin. Half of thise died within a couole of years. Only a couple of thousan of their descendants came “back” in the 1980s.
As badly as the war is going for Russia, the number of verified kills of Russian generals is perplexing.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4904452/putin-loses-fourth-general-blow-invasion-ukraine/
For some reason, they must be getting too close to the action.
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