The genetic history of Rus (Andreeva et al. 2025 preprint)

Over at bioRxiv at this LINK. As far as I can see, this is the most interesting preprint published in the last 12 months. At the same time, however, the authors could've done a much better job with the fine scale analysis of their samples. For instance, they rely solely on a West Eurasian-level Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to study intra-Northern European diversity. Hopefully, the paper will be better. Abstract:

The foundation of the first ancient Rus’ state occurred as a result of the consolidation of diverse communities inhabiting Eastern Europe during the second half of the first millennium CE. Historical sources imply that these communities mostly include East Slavs, whose settlement across a vast territory led to the emergence of the East Slavic/Rus’ culture within the Rus’ state. We generated genomic data for 200 medieval individuals from different locations to elucidate the origin and genetic structure of the Rus’ population during the early stages of the state formation. Our findings reveal a genetic continuum predominantly shaped by two key genetic groups: a broad Slavic-related continuity of different genetic subclusters of Rus’ occupying the enormous European Plain area, and a Fenno-Ugrian (Uralic)-related component in the Northern Rus’ region. Importantly, both groups have a shared genetic substrate inherited from preceding ancient Baltic region populations. To scale Scandinavian ("Viking") heritage, we traced minor Scandinavian genetic lineages that did not make up the dominating genetic stratum of the early Rus’ state. Our study presents the first comprehensive genomic image of the medieval Rus’, highlighting the intricate cultural and genetic interactions between Slavic, Fenno-Ugrian, and other groups that formed the first Rus’ state affecting Europe’s history.

Andreeva et al., Genetic history of Rus’, bioRxiv, Posted December 30, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2025.12.30.695215

I don't yet have access to the dataset from this preprint, so I grabbed a bunch of already published samples from Medieval and Viking Age Russia and put them into the Vahaduo G25 North Europe PCA. Clearly, many of the Viking Age individuals have significant levels of Scandinavian ancestry, because they're shifted west/northwest on the plot relative to most other Eastern Europeans. And, obviously, this contradicts the Andreeva et al. claim that there's only minor Scandinavian admixture in the Rus population. The datasheet that I used for the PCA can be downloaded here.

See also...

They came, they saw, and they mixed

They came, they saw, and they mixed

Y-chromosome haplogroup N is strongly associated with Uralic-speaking populations. That's probably because it was a salient feature of the gene pool of the earliest Uralic speakers, and it went with them as they migrated across northern Eurasia. However, some of its younger subclades appear to have spread with the speakers of Indo-European and Turkic languages.

For instance, N-Y10931 seems to be a marker of the Rurikids, a Varangian dynasty that, according to most sources, ruled the Kievan Rus in what are now Russia and Ukraine. And the Kievan Rus was a lose medieval political federation in which Slavic, Finnic (west Uralic) and Germanic languages were probably spoken. The latest on the genetic genealogy of the Rurikids was presented a couple of days ago at the Centenary of Human Population Genetics conference in Moscow, and there's an abstract of the talk available here (download the PDF and scroll down to page 84).

I'm not aware of any Rurikids among the thousands of ancients in my dataset, or even of any samples belonging to N-Y10931. But I do have the genome of someone who belongs to N-Y4339, which, as per the abstract linked to above, is proximally ancestral to N-Y10931. Not only does this person come from Viking Age Scandinavia, but he was buried in a crouched position typical of Slavic funerary customs of the time.

The individual in question is vik_84001. His genome was published recently along with a paper on the population structure of the Swedish town of Sigtuna way back when it was a Viking stronghold (see here). This is where his Y-chromosome sequence, labeled ERS2540883, is positioned on the YFull Y-chromosome phylogenetic tree. Click on the image to go to YFull.

However, the result is likely to be compromised to some extent by missing data. If so, it's possible that vik_84001 does indeed belong to N-Y10931 and ought to be sitting near or even among that cluster of Russian samples (Rurik descendants?) at the bottom of the page.

In any case, vik_84001 seems to be the closest individual in the ancient DNA record to a Rurikid. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) below is based on my Global25 data. It features 18 other Viking Age individuals from Sigtuna alongside vik_84001 (look for the black dots). The relevant datasheet is available here. Interestingly, despite his eastern Y-haplogroup, vik_84001 is one of the few Sigtuna ancients who clusters strongly with present-day Swedes.

But here's what happens when I model his ancestry proportions with the Global25/nMonte method using a wide range of reference populations from Northern and Eastern Europe. The Swedes in this model are the same as those in the PCA.

vik_84001
Swedish,84.6
Ingrian,9.2
Russian_Tver,6.2
Belarusian,0
Estonian,0
Finnish,0
Finnish_East,0
Karelian,0
Latvian,0
Mordovian,0
Russian_Kostroma,0
Russian_Kursk,0
Russian_Orel,0
Russian_Pinega,0
Russian_Smolensk,0
Russian_Voronez,0
Ukrainian,0
Vepsian,0

[1] "distance%=2.3778"

Yep, despite his position in the PCA, vik_84001 shows a strong signal of ancestry related to the present-day populations of northwestern Russia. I'm not sure what this means exactly, but it's certainly fascinating stuff. And, by the way, I usually wouldn't use so many similar reference populations in a single Global25/nMonte model because of the problem of "overfitting", but in some cases it's OK to do so if the nMonte algorithm has enough recent genetic drift to latch onto.

See also...

More on the association between Uralic expansions and Y-haplogroup N

Fresh off the sledge

Uralic-specific genome-wide ancestry did make a signifcant impact in the East Baltic

It was always going to be this way

Conan the Barbarian probably belonged to Y-haplogroup R1a